Missouri
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.6 #51
Expected Predictive Rating +15.6 #31
Pace 69.2 #185
Improvement -0.2 #192

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #38 A- A+ D+ C B-
Defense #89 C+ B- C+ C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #58 1.31 #44 +6.3 #18
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #233 0.80 #121 -0.6 #204
Three Pointers 39% #228 1.10 #73 +0.6 #157
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #37 +6.3 #37
Freethrows 18.7 #112 66% #339 12.3 #200
Second Chance 36.4% #38 1.25 #14 0.45 #17
Turnovers 17.9% #257
Total Offense +7.6 #38

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #348 1.07 #80 +6.3 #20
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #104 0.73 #144 -0.6 #232
Three Pointers 47% #37 1.06 #252 -4.4 #328
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #135 +1.3 #136
Freethrows 16.1 #125 73% #199 11.8 #229
Second Chance 27.6% #80 1.03 #167 0.28 #95
Turnovers 17.6% #121
Total Defense +3.0 #89

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #88 -1.8% #49
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.7% #40 -0.8% #164
Possession Length 16.5 #104 18.3 #329
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #56 0.16 #123
Improvement -1.2 #265 +1.1 #110

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 2.5% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 10.5% 15.1% 6.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.2% 65.0% 44.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.7% 64.5% 43.9%
Average Seed 8.2 8.0 8.5
.500 or above 90.2% 95.9% 85.0%
.500 or above in Conference 49.6% 62.6% 37.8%
Conference Champion 1.9% 3.1% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 1.2% 7.3%
First Four7.5% 7.0% 7.9%
First Round50.1% 61.1% 40.0%
Second Round23.2% 29.4% 17.5%
Sweet Sixteen5.0% 6.8% 3.4%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.7% 0.8%
Final Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi (Away) - 47.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 55 - 11
Quad 24 - 29 - 13
Quad 31 - 010 - 13
Quad 49 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 271 @Howard W 88 - 67 90%  +14  1 - 0 +18 +15 A+ A+ F +2 C- A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 7 218 Southeast Missouri St. W 89 - 84 93%  +2  2 - 0 -1 +5 A+ D- F -7 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 332 VMI W 106 - 68 98%  +11  3 - 0 +24 +17 D A+ B +4 F A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 76 Minnesota W 83 - 60 72%  +3  4 - 0 +28 +24 A+ A+ A+ +6 B A B-
 Mon, Nov 17 306 Prairie View W 91 - 73 97%  +19  5 - 0 +6 +5 B- B- C -0 B+ B F
 Thu, Nov 20 290 South Dakota W 102 - 68 96%  +14  6 - 0 +24 +16 A+ A F +6 B+ D- A
 Tue, Nov 25 357 South Carolina St. W 98 - 66 99%  +24  7 - 0 +14 +18 F A+ A- -4 B- B F
 Fri, Nov 28 321 Cleveland St. W 86 - 59 97%  +19  8 - 0 +14 +3 B- A+ F +10 B A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 59 @Notre Dame L 71 - 76 44%  +1  8 - 1 +7 +7 B- C D- +0 C- A+ A-
 Sun, Dec 7 18 @Kansas L 60 - 80 20%  -8  8 - 2 -0 +2 C B- D+ -4 A- D- D+
 Thu, Dec 11 301 Alabama St. W 85 - 77 97%  +11  9 - 2 -3 +16 A+ A+ C -18 F F F
 Sun, Dec 14 278 Bethune-Cookman W 82 - 60 96%  +15  10 - 2 +12 +7 B- A+ F +6 A+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 9 Illinois L 48 - 91 18%  -17  10 - 3 -23 -11 F F F -17 B- F A
 Sat, Jan 3 12 Florida W 76 - 74 32%  +1  11 - 3 1 - 0 +17 +14 A+ A C +3 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 27 @Kentucky W 73 - 68 24%  -0  12 - 3 2 - 0 +23 +12 A+ F C +11 A A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 71 @Mississippi L 74 - 75 48% 
 Wed, Jan 14 33 Auburn L 80 - 81 48% 
 Sat, Jan 17 42 @LSU L 76 - 80 35% 
 Tue, Jan 20 24 Georgia L 85 - 87 42% 
 Sat, Jan 24 48 Oklahoma W 79 - 76 60% 
 Tue, Jan 27 13 @Alabama L 82 - 93 16% 
 Sat, Jan 31 55 Mississippi St. W 79 - 75 64% 
 Sat, Feb 7 72 @South Carolina L 74 - 75 48% 
 Wed, Feb 11 40 @Texas A&M L 80 - 85 33% 
 Sat, Feb 14 45 Texas W 81 - 79 59% 
 Wed, Feb 18 7 Vanderbilt L 77 - 84 27% 
 Sat, Feb 21 19 @Arkansas L 79 - 88 21% 
 Tue, Feb 24 16 Tennessee L 72 - 76 36% 
 Sat, Feb 28 55 @Mississippi St. L 76 - 78 43% 
 Tue, Mar 3 48 @Oklahoma L 76 - 79 38% 
 Sat, Mar 7 19 Arkansas L 82 - 85 39% 
Totals 19 - 12 9 - 9 +11 +8 A- A+ D+ +3 C+ B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.2 1.9 0.2 6.1 4th
5th 0.3 3.0 3.4 0.7 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.8 1.4 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 5.0 3.1 0.3 9.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.8 5.7 1.0 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 5.9 2.5 0.1 9.5 9th
10th 0.2 3.3 4.8 0.5 0.0 8.9 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 5.1 1.7 0.0 8.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 3.2 3.3 0.3 7.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 1.5 3.7 1.0 0.0 6.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.6 0.1 4.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 1.6 16th
Total 0.1 0.9 2.9 6.1 10.2 14.0 16.2 15.7 12.8 9.5 6.2 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 90.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 77.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 46.6% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 17.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.5% 100.0% 4.8% 95.2% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.5% 100.0% 5.9% 94.1% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.3% 99.7% 5.5% 94.2% 5.6 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 99.7%
12-6 6.2% 99.4% 2.9% 96.5% 6.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
11-7 9.5% 97.9% 1.7% 96.2% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.9 2.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.9%
10-8 12.8% 91.9% 1.0% 90.9% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.7 3.5 1.5 0.2 1.0 91.8%
9-9 15.7% 79.7% 0.6% 79.0% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.9 4.1 1.3 3.2 79.6%
8-10 16.2% 44.4% 0.3% 44.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 3.8 0.1 9.0 44.2%
7-11 14.0% 12.0% 0.2% 11.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 0.1 12.3 11.8%
6-12 10.2% 1.2% 0.2% 1.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.1 1.0%
5-13 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 6.1 0.1%
4-14 2.9% 2.9
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 54.2% 1.0% 53.2% 8.2 45.8 53.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%