Missouri
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.7#18
Expected Predictive Rating+15.4#28
Pace69.5#133
Improvement+4.7#21

Offense
Total Offense+13.1#5
First Shot+11.0#4
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#59
Layup/Dunks+6.3#17
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#219
Freethrows+4.7#3
Improvement+5.1#12

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#81
First Shot+4.8#51
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#286
Layups/Dunks+5.4#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#179
Freethrows+1.7#67
Improvement-0.4#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 16.9% 27.4% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 61.8% 84.2% 28.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.9% 99.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.7% 99.9% 99.4%
Average Seed 6.0 5.2 7.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round99.7% 99.9% 99.4%
Second Round74.2% 78.8% 67.5%
Sweet Sixteen33.8% 39.7% 25.1%
Elite Eight13.5% 15.2% 10.9%
Final Four5.0% 5.8% 3.8%
Championship Game1.7% 2.0% 1.3%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.4%

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 57 - 11
Quad 23 - 010 - 11
Quad 34 - 014 - 11
Quad 48 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 50   @ Memphis L 75-83 61%     0 - 1 +5.8 +6.6 -0.4
  Nov 08, 2024 316   Howard W 77-62 99%     1 - 1 +3.0 -3.1 +6.2
  Nov 11, 2024 294   Eastern Washington W 84-77 99%     2 - 1 -3.4 +8.7 -11.9
  Nov 14, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 111-39 99.9%    3 - 1 +40.9 +28.3 +14.8
  Nov 22, 2024 291   Pacific W 91-56 99%     4 - 1 +24.7 +18.7 +8.2
  Nov 24, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 112-63 99.7%    5 - 1 +27.7 +16.4 +6.2
  Nov 27, 2024 332   Lindenwood W 81-61 99%     6 - 1 +6.5 +2.1 +3.7
  Dec 03, 2024 106   California W 98-93 92%     7 - 1 +6.1 +16.6 -10.9
  Dec 08, 2024 19   Kansas W 76-67 61%     8 - 1 +23.0 +8.7 +13.9
  Dec 14, 2024 300   LIU Brooklyn W 88-61 99%     9 - 1 +16.2 +20.1 -2.2
  Dec 17, 2024 122   Jacksonville St. W 83-72 94%     10 - 1 +10.6 +22.1 -9.9
  Dec 22, 2024 17   Illinois L 77-80 50%     10 - 2 +13.8 +6.4 +7.7
  Dec 30, 2024 288   Alabama St. W 82-65 99%     11 - 2 +6.8 +3.8 +2.7
  Jan 04, 2025 2   @ Auburn L 68-84 17%     11 - 3 0 - 1 +11.0 +5.2 +5.9
  Jan 07, 2025 86   LSU W 83-67 89%     12 - 3 1 - 1 +19.6 +16.0 +4.1
  Jan 11, 2025 51   Vanderbilt W 75-66 79%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +17.2 +8.5 +9.2
  Jan 14, 2025 3   @ Florida W 83-82 18%     14 - 3 3 - 1 +27.3 +22.9 +4.4
  Jan 18, 2025 37   Arkansas W 83-65 73%     15 - 3 4 - 1 +28.3 +17.2 +11.0
  Jan 21, 2025 42   @ Texas L 53-61 58%     15 - 4 4 - 2 +6.6 -5.6 +11.1
  Jan 25, 2025 29   Mississippi W 83-75 69%     16 - 4 5 - 2 +19.6 +11.4 +7.7
  Feb 01, 2025 30   @ Mississippi St. W 88-61 49%     17 - 4 6 - 2 +44.0 +28.8 +17.3
  Feb 05, 2025 6   @ Tennessee L 81-85 27%     17 - 5 6 - 3 +19.0 +25.2 -6.4
  Feb 08, 2025 22   Texas A&M L 64-67 62%     17 - 6 6 - 4 +10.6 +3.8 +6.7
  Feb 12, 2025 38   Oklahoma W 82-58 73%     18 - 6 7 - 4 +34.2 +7.7 +25.2
  Feb 15, 2025 33   @ Georgia W 87-74 51%     19 - 6 8 - 4 +29.5 +33.3 -2.3
  Feb 19, 2025 5   Alabama W 110-98 44%     20 - 6 9 - 4 +30.4 +30.7 -1.6
  Feb 22, 2025 37   @ Arkansas L 85-92 54%     20 - 7 9 - 5 +8.8 +13.3 -3.9
  Feb 25, 2025 71   South Carolina W 101-71 86%     21 - 7 10 - 5 +35.3 +33.1 +2.5
  Mar 01, 2025 51   @ Vanderbilt L 93-97 OT 62%     21 - 8 10 - 6 +9.7 +18.7 -8.8
  Mar 05, 2025 38   @ Oklahoma L 84-96 54%     21 - 9 10 - 7 +3.7 +17.7 -14.1
  Mar 08, 2025 14   Kentucky L 83-91 57%     21 - 10 10 - 8 +6.9 +11.7 -4.6
  Mar 13, 2025 30   Mississippi St. W 81-79 59%    
Projected Record 22 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 99.7% 1.8% 97.9% 6.0 0.0 0.6 4.3 12.1 21.2 23.7 22.1 13.0 2.6 0.2 0.3 99.7%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.7% 1.8% 97.9% 6.0 0.0 0.6 4.3 12.1 21.2 23.7 22.1 13.0 2.6 0.2 0.3 99.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 3.0 1.6 20.7 57.1 19.6 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.8% 100.0% 3.9 3.7 29.0 44.1 19.6 3.4 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.0% 100.0% 4.6 0.1 0.3 10.7 34.1 36.7 14.7 3.2 0.1
Lose Out 40.4% 99.4% 7.0 0.2 1.3 8.6 18.7 34.9 28.9 6.4 0.4