North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.1 #26
Expected Predictive Rating +19.1 #14
Pace 69.4 #182
Improvement -2.7 #310

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #33 A- B- A B- B+
Defense #24 A+ A+ D- A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #68 1.27 #72 +5.1 #35
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #296 0.81 #99 -1.6 #254
Three Pointers 42% #164 1.10 #78 +2.3 #111
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #44 +5.8 #44
Freethrows 19.8 #70 71% #233 14.0 #98
Second Chance 35.8% #46 1.04 #194 0.37 #84
Turnovers 13.2% #19
Total Offense +7.9 #33

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #340 0.94 #7 +7.9 #9
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #12 0.62 #25 -1.4 #282
Three Pointers 40% #216 0.99 #153 +1.1 #141
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #14 +7.6 #14
Freethrows 11.6 #6 72% #161 8.4 #361
Second Chance 25.3% #25 0.79 #5 0.20 #7
Turnovers 13.8% #326
Total Defense +7.2 #24

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #62 -3.4% #12
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.0% #54 -11.9% #26
Possession Length 15.6 #46 19.5 #364
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #86 0.07 #4
Improvement -0.9 #246 -1.8 #294

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.9% 2.2% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 19.9% 22.3% 10.2%
Top 6 Seed 54.2% 58.3% 36.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.9% 95.5% 87.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.4% 95.1% 86.9%
Average Seed 6.3 6.1 7.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 85.7% 89.4% 70.3%
Conference Champion 4.9% 5.7% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four2.9% 2.3% 5.1%
First Round92.7% 94.5% 85.3%
Second Round64.0% 66.4% 53.6%
Sweet Sixteen25.7% 27.4% 18.6%
Elite Eight9.0% 9.6% 6.6%
Final Four2.9% 3.1% 2.1%
Championship Game1.0% 1.0% 0.7%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Home) - 80.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 7
Quad 25 - 112 - 9
Quad 35 - 018 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 261 Central Arkansas W 94 - 54 98%  +24  1 - 0 +31 +10 A A+ B- +18 A+ B- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 18 Kansas W 87 - 74 56%  +2  2 - 0 +27 +21 A+ D+ D+ +5 C+ A- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 234 Radford W 89 - 74 97%  +11  3 - 0 +8 -1 D- D+ A+ +7 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 347 NC Central W 97 - 53 99%  +20  4 - 0 +29 +18 B A+ A +10 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 193 Navy W 73 - 61 96%  +10  5 - 0 +7 -1 B F D+ +8 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 119 St. Bonaventure W 85 - 70 87%  +11  6 - 0 +18 +10 A+ B D- +7 A- A+ F
 Thu, Nov 27 14 Michigan St. L 58 - 74 39%  -4  6 - 1 +2 +6 C+ C+ A+ -7 D+ B- C-
 Tue, Dec 2 27 @Kentucky W 67 - 64 39%  -2  7 - 1 +21 +10 C- A+ D +11 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 103 Georgetown W 81 - 61 89%  +7  8 - 1 +22 +7 A D- A+ +14 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 287 South Carolina Upstate W 80 - 62 98%  +8  9 - 1 +8 +11 B+ C+ A+ -1 B+ C F
 Tue, Dec 16 128 East Tennessee St. W 77 - 58 93%  +10  10 - 1 +18 +15 A A+ A+ +6 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 30 Ohio St. W 71 - 70 53%  +4  11 - 1 +15 +9 B A- A+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 266 East Carolina W 99 - 51 98%  +24  12 - 1 +39 +16 A+ B- B +19 A+ A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 30 111 Florida St. W 79 - 66 90%  +7  13 - 1 1 - 0 +14 +6 C- B A+ +8 A+ B D+
 Sat, Jan 3 28 @SMU L 83 - 97 41%  -5  13 - 2 1 - 1 +3 +17 A+ D- A+ -14 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 62 Wake Forest W 80 - 71 81% 
 Wed, Jan 14 79 @Stanford W 76 - 72 66% 
 Sat, Jan 17 84 @California W 77 - 72 68% 
 Wed, Jan 21 59 Notre Dame W 74 - 65 80% 
 Sat, Jan 24 22 @Virginia L 72 - 76 36% 
 Sat, Jan 31 114 @Georgia Tech W 79 - 71 78% 
 Mon, Feb 2 69 Syracuse W 79 - 69 82% 
 Sat, Feb 7 6 Duke L 74 - 77 39% 
 Tue, Feb 10 36 @Miami (FL) L 76 - 77 44% 
 Sat, Feb 14 82 Pittsburgh W 78 - 67 84% 
 Tue, Feb 17 34 @North Carolina St. L 76 - 78 44% 
 Sat, Feb 21 69 @Syracuse W 76 - 72 63% 
 Mon, Feb 23 15 Louisville W 80 - 79 52% 
 Sat, Feb 28 68 Virginia Tech W 79 - 70 80% 
 Tue, Mar 3 39 Clemson W 72 - 67 68% 
 Sat, Mar 7 6 @Duke L 71 - 80 20% 
Totals 23 - 8 11 - 7 +15 +8 A- B- A +7 A+ A+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.9 0.7 0.1 4.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.9 1.0 0.0 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.7 5.6 1.5 0.1 11.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 6.5 2.7 0.2 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 5.9 4.4 0.4 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.2 3.6 6.3 1.2 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 6.0 2.6 0.2 10.3 7th
8th 0.3 3.8 3.8 0.5 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 4.0 1.0 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.5 2.1 0.2 5.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 3.8 11th
12th 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.2 1.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.9 7.5 11.9 15.6 18.0 16.7 12.6 7.2 3.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 93.9% 0.7    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 65.4% 1.9    1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 23.6% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 1.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
16-2 0.7% 100.0% 31.1% 68.9% 2.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.0% 100.0% 27.0% 73.0% 3.1 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.2 100.0%
14-4 7.2% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 3.8 0.1 0.4 2.2 2.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.6% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 4.6 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.3 4.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 16.7% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 5.4 0.0 0.7 2.7 5.9 5.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 18.0% 99.6% 5.8% 93.8% 6.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.8 6.1 4.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 99.6%
10-8 15.6% 97.8% 4.3% 93.4% 7.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 4.6 3.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.3 97.7%
9-9 11.9% 95.3% 3.0% 92.3% 8.2 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.4 3.0 1.4 0.2 0.6 95.1%
8-10 7.5% 83.2% 2.0% 81.2% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.1 0.9 1.3 82.8%
7-11 3.9% 61.1% 0.9% 60.2% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 1.5 60.8%
6-12 2.0% 30.2% 0.5% 29.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.4 29.8%
5-13 0.7% 5.4% 5.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.4%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 93.9% 7.9% 86.0% 6.3 6.1 93.4%