North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#36
Expected Predictive Rating+11.3#51
Pace76.5#21
Improvement-4.8#341

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#35
First Shot+6.7#32
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#167
Layup/Dunks+5.8#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#175
Freethrows+2.9#34
Improvement-4.6#351

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#44
First Shot+4.5#52
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#76
Layups/Dunks+5.0#37
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#132
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#274
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement-0.2#196
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.5% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.7% 44.7% 25.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.9% 42.0% 23.1%
Average Seed 10.0 9.9 10.3
.500 or above 98.1% 99.4% 95.4%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 98.3% 88.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four16.9% 18.7% 13.0%
First Round31.4% 36.7% 20.0%
Second Round14.5% 17.5% 8.2%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 5.1% 2.6%
Elite Eight1.6% 2.0% 0.8%
Final Four0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Home) - 68.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b1 - 23 - 11
Quad 25 - 28 - 13
Quad 38 - 115 - 14
Quad 45 - 020 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 175   Elon W 90-76 92%     1 - 0 +10.8 +9.3 +0.6
  Nov 08, 2024 7   @ Kansas L 89-92 20%     1 - 1 +18.5 +19.9 -1.1
  Nov 15, 2024 233   American W 107-55 95%     2 - 1 +45.4 +23.7 +18.7
  Nov 22, 2024 180   @ Hawaii W 87-69 85%     3 - 1 +19.6 +17.7 +2.4
  Nov 25, 2024 80   Dayton W 92-90 70%     4 - 1 +9.3 +11.5 -2.4
  Nov 26, 2024 1   Auburn L 72-85 16%     4 - 2 +10.2 +3.6 +7.3
  Nov 27, 2024 15   Michigan St. L 91-94 OT 34%     4 - 3 +13.9 +16.1 -1.8
  Dec 04, 2024 5   Alabama L 79-94 33%     4 - 4 +2.2 -1.1 +5.7
  Dec 07, 2024 99   Georgia Tech W 68-65 83%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +5.4 -7.8 +13.0
  Dec 14, 2024 193   La Salle W 93-67 93%     6 - 4 +22.0 +11.1 +8.6
  Dec 17, 2024 4   Florida L 84-90 25%     6 - 5 +13.9 +10.9 +3.7
  Dec 21, 2024 29   UCLA W 76-74 44%     7 - 5 +16.3 +9.1 +7.2
  Dec 29, 2024 178   Campbell W 97-81 92%     8 - 5 +12.7 +23.3 -10.9
  Jan 01, 2025 27   @ Louisville L 70-83 34%     8 - 6 1 - 1 +3.9 -0.3 +5.1
  Jan 04, 2025 83   @ Notre Dame W 74-73 61%     9 - 6 2 - 1 +10.8 +6.4 +4.4
  Jan 07, 2025 42   SMU W 82-67 63%     10 - 6 3 - 1 +24.2 +7.1 +16.0
  Jan 11, 2025 91   @ North Carolina St. W 63-61 65%     11 - 6 4 - 1 +10.6 +1.6 +9.2
  Jan 15, 2025 116   California W 79-53 87%     12 - 6 5 - 1 +26.4 +2.4 +23.3
  Jan 18, 2025 78   Stanford L 71-72 77%     12 - 7 5 - 2 +3.9 +3.2 +0.6
  Jan 21, 2025 58   @ Wake Forest L 66-67 52%     12 - 8 5 - 3 +11.2 -0.4 +11.6
  Jan 25, 2025 176   Boston College W 102-96 OT 92%     13 - 8 6 - 3 +2.7 +19.0 -16.7
  Jan 28, 2025 47   @ Pittsburgh L 65-73 48%     13 - 9 6 - 4 +5.3 +0.6 +4.2
  Feb 01, 2025 2   @ Duke L 70-87 12%     13 - 10 6 - 5 +8.5 +15.6 -8.4
  Feb 08, 2025 47   Pittsburgh W 80-76 68%    
  Feb 10, 2025 32   @ Clemson L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 104   @ Syracuse W 82-76 70%    
  Feb 19, 2025 91   North Carolina St. W 78-69 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 97   Virginia W 73-63 84%    
  Feb 24, 2025 82   @ Florida St. W 81-78 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 169   Miami (FL) W 89-74 93%    
  Mar 04, 2025 118   @ Virginia Tech W 80-72 74%    
  Mar 08, 2025 2   Duke L 71-79 24%    
Projected Record 19 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.3 0.8 2.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.5 4.9 0.8 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 9.7 12.3 2.8 0.2 26.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 9.3 14.2 4.7 0.3 29.4 6th
7th 0.2 4.0 9.1 3.2 0.1 16.6 7th
8th 1.0 4.4 2.3 0.2 7.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 1.4 0.1 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.8 10.8 22.1 28.3 22.8 9.4 2.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 2.0% 94.9% 12.6% 82.3% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 94.2%
14-6 9.4% 81.4% 8.2% 73.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.4 1.5 1.7 79.7%
13-7 22.8% 59.4% 5.2% 54.2% 10.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.7 5.1 0.2 9.2 57.2%
12-8 28.3% 37.0% 4.4% 32.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 2.8 5.9 0.4 17.8 34.1%
11-9 22.1% 18.9% 2.8% 16.2% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.7 0.4 17.9 16.6%
10-10 10.8% 8.2% 2.2% 6.0% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 9.9 6.1%
9-11 3.8% 3.9% 1.6% 2.3% 11.2 0.1 0.0 3.7 2.4%
8-12 0.8% 0.8
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 38.7% 4.4% 34.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.8 5.6 11.1 15.9 1.1 61.3 35.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.8 8.0 4.0 32.0 20.0 32.0 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 97.1% 6.8 8.6 34.3 31.4 17.1 5.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 94.9% 7.6 2.6 5.1 14.1 21.8 21.8 23.1 6.4