North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.7#34
Expected Predictive Rating+13.0#43
Pace75.2#28
Improvement-0.4#214

Offense
Total Offense+8.8#20
First Shot+8.3#20
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#149
Layup/Dunks+6.6#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
Freethrows+3.3#27
Improvement+0.7#156

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#60
First Shot+3.7#69
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#82
Layups/Dunks+4.8#40
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#138
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#287
Freethrows+0.7#127
Improvement-1.1#246
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.7% 53.7% 29.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.9% 51.3% 29.8%
Average Seed 10.8 10.8 11.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four35.7% 39.8% 27.6%
First Round30.9% 36.9% 18.9%
Second Round12.9% 15.7% 7.3%
Sweet Sixteen4.4% 5.1% 2.9%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.6% 0.9%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 101 - 10
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 12
Quad 29 - 010 - 12
Quad 36 - 116 - 13
Quad 46 - 022 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 206   Elon W 90-76 95%     1 - 0 +8.7 +7.5 +0.3
  Nov 08, 2024 19   @ Kansas L 89-92 29%     1 - 1 +16.5 +19.0 -2.2
  Nov 15, 2024 239   American W 107-55 96%     2 - 1 +44.9 +25.7 +16.3
  Nov 22, 2024 221   @ Hawaii W 87-69 90%     3 - 1 +17.5 +17.0 +0.9
  Nov 25, 2024 74   Dayton W 92-90 72%     4 - 1 +9.5 +11.7 -2.4
  Nov 26, 2024 2   Auburn L 72-85 16%     4 - 2 +11.3 +4.3 +7.7
  Nov 27, 2024 8   Michigan St. L 91-94 OT 29%     4 - 3 +16.5 +18.6 -1.7
  Dec 04, 2024 5   Alabama L 79-94 32%     4 - 4 +3.4 -0.9 +6.7
  Dec 07, 2024 94   Georgia Tech W 68-65 85%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +5.5 -7.0 +12.3
  Dec 14, 2024 216   La Salle W 93-67 95%     6 - 4 +20.2 +10.1 +7.9
  Dec 17, 2024 3   Florida L 84-90 18%     6 - 5 +17.5 +12.0 +6.2
  Dec 21, 2024 24   UCLA W 76-74 43%     7 - 5 +17.6 +9.5 +8.0
  Dec 29, 2024 220   Campbell W 97-81 96%     8 - 5 +10.0 +21.9 -12.1
  Jan 01, 2025 23   @ Louisville L 70-83 31%     8 - 6 1 - 1 +5.7 +1.6 +5.0
  Jan 04, 2025 95   @ Notre Dame W 74-73 71%     9 - 6 2 - 1 +9.0 +7.2 +1.8
  Jan 07, 2025 45   SMU W 82-67 69%     10 - 6 3 - 1 +23.7 +5.9 +16.7
  Jan 11, 2025 104   @ North Carolina St. W 63-61 75%     11 - 6 4 - 1 +8.7 +1.2 +7.8
  Jan 15, 2025 106   California W 79-53 88%     12 - 6 5 - 1 +27.1 +3.4 +23.1
  Jan 18, 2025 81   Stanford L 71-72 82%     12 - 7 5 - 2 +3.1 +4.1 -1.1
  Jan 21, 2025 63   @ Wake Forest L 66-67 56%     12 - 8 5 - 3 +11.0 -1.3 +12.4
  Jan 25, 2025 168   Boston College W 102-96 OT 93%     13 - 8 6 - 3 +2.7 +20.8 -18.5
  Jan 28, 2025 62   @ Pittsburgh L 65-73 56%     13 - 9 6 - 4 +4.1 +1.0 +2.6
  Feb 01, 2025 1   @ Duke L 70-87 8%     13 - 10 6 - 5 +12.5 +15.7 -4.6
  Feb 08, 2025 62   Pittsburgh W 67-66 75%     14 - 10 7 - 5 +7.6 +3.9 +3.9
  Feb 10, 2025 21   @ Clemson L 65-85 30%     14 - 11 7 - 6 -0.8 +1.1 -1.9
  Feb 15, 2025 102   @ Syracuse W 88-82 74%     15 - 11 8 - 6 +12.9 +18.1 -5.2
  Feb 19, 2025 104   North Carolina St. W 97-73 88%     16 - 11 9 - 6 +25.2 +26.4 -1.0
  Feb 22, 2025 99   Virginia W 81-66 86%     17 - 11 10 - 6 +16.8 +14.0 +3.9
  Feb 24, 2025 85   @ Florida St. W 96-85 67%     18 - 11 11 - 6 +20.2 +33.7 -13.0
  Mar 01, 2025 173   Miami (FL) W 92-73 94%     19 - 11 12 - 6 +15.5 +12.8 +2.7
  Mar 04, 2025 135   @ Virginia Tech W 91-59 81%     20 - 11 13 - 6 +36.2 +24.1 +13.4
  Mar 08, 2025 1   Duke L 69-82 17%     20 - 12 13 - 7 +11.0 +8.6 +1.9
  Mar 12, 2025 95   Notre Dame W 76-56 79%     21 - 12 +25.2 +11.4 +15.4
  Mar 13, 2025 63   Wake Forest W 78-74 67%    
Projected Record 22 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 45.7% 3.2% 42.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 5.7 32.2 5.0 54.3 43.9%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 45.7% 3.2% 42.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 5.7 32.2 5.0 54.3 43.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.2% 100.0% 9.1 0.3 0.9 3.7 19.2 43.0 24.5 8.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.0% 73.3% 10.5 0.3 6.0 25.0 39.8 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 59.5% 49.8% 11.0 0.1 0.6 5.7 38.1 5.4
Lose Out 33.3% 29.8% 11.1 0.1 1.5 23.2 4.9