North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#79
Expected Predictive Rating+5.7#94
Pace65.2#275
Improvement-0.4#212

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#75
First Shot+2.5#101
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#105
Layup/Dunks+7.2#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#182
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#348
Freethrows+1.6#84
Improvement+0.4#145

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#87
First Shot+4.1#60
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#241
Layups/Dunks-1.9#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#38
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#9
Freethrows-1.9#312
Improvement-0.8#254
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 9.0% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.1% 7.7% 2.8%
Average Seed 10.1 10.0 10.4
.500 or above 75.7% 85.7% 67.4%
.500 or above in Conference 60.8% 73.7% 49.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.3% 1.9%
First Four2.7% 3.9% 1.7%
First Round4.6% 6.8% 2.6%
Second Round1.8% 2.7% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 45.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 7
Quad 25 - 66 - 13
Quad 34 - 110 - 15
Quad 48 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 342   South Carolina Upstate W 97-66 97%     1 - 0 +16.5 +11.7 +2.7
  Nov 08, 2024 268   Presbyterian W 81-72 93%     2 - 0 +0.2 +6.4 -5.8
  Nov 13, 2024 277   Coastal Carolina W 82-70 93%     3 - 0 +2.6 +3.9 -1.4
  Nov 18, 2024 241   Colgate W 72-49 91%     4 - 0 +15.6 -6.6 +21.6
  Nov 22, 2024 221   William & Mary W 84-61 89%     5 - 0 +16.7 -1.9 +17.0
  Nov 28, 2024 27   Purdue L 61-71 26%     5 - 1 +3.9 +3.5 -1.4
  Nov 29, 2024 42   BYU L 61-72 34%     5 - 2 +0.4 -2.8 +2.3
  Dec 04, 2024 33   Texas L 59-63 41%     5 - 3 +5.6 +2.4 +2.5
  Dec 07, 2024 70   Florida St. W 84-74 OT 60%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +14.8 +14.8 +0.2
  Dec 10, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 66-56 99%     7 - 3 -10.1 -5.7 -3.3
  Dec 14, 2024 8   @ Kansas L 60-75 11%     7 - 4 +5.9 +6.2 -2.2
  Dec 22, 2024 303   Rider W 89-63 94%     8 - 4 +15.2 +14.7 +1.7
  Dec 31, 2024 92   @ Virginia L 59-60 46%    
  Jan 04, 2025 89   @ Wake Forest L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 08, 2025 83   Notre Dame W 70-67 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 22   North Carolina L 75-79 35%    
  Jan 15, 2025 138   @ Virginia Tech W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 128   California W 78-70 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 41   SMU L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 27, 2025 2   @ Duke L 60-77 5%    
  Feb 01, 2025 37   Clemson L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 05, 2025 128   @ California W 75-73 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 94   @ Stanford L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 12, 2025 45   Louisville L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 167   Boston College W 76-65 84%    
  Feb 19, 2025 22   @ North Carolina L 72-82 17%    
  Feb 22, 2025 89   Wake Forest W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 26, 2025 100   @ Syracuse L 74-75 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 112   @ Georgia Tech W 72-71 54%    
  Mar 05, 2025 30   Pittsburgh L 70-73 39%    
  Mar 08, 2025 104   @ Miami (FL) L 72-73 49%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.1 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.3 0.8 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.3 5.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 5.0 3.5 0.5 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.5 4.4 0.9 0.0 9.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 4.7 1.7 0.1 8.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 7.1 11th
12th 0.1 1.8 3.3 0.7 0.0 5.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.4 0.1 4.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.7 0.3 3.7 14th
15th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.8 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.4 7.5 10.6 13.0 14.1 13.8 12.2 9.1 5.8 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 95.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 51.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
17-3 29.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 9.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.2% 92.6% 4.9% 87.7% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.2%
17-3 0.6% 80.9% 12.1% 68.8% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 78.2%
16-4 1.6% 60.1% 6.0% 54.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 57.5%
15-5 3.3% 39.6% 4.7% 34.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.0 2.0 36.6%
14-6 5.8% 22.5% 3.5% 19.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 4.5 19.7%
13-7 9.1% 10.0% 2.1% 7.9% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 8.2 8.1%
12-8 12.2% 4.5% 1.2% 3.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 11.6 3.4%
11-9 13.8% 1.5% 0.4% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.6 1.1%
10-10 14.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.1 0.2%
9-11 13.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 13.0 0.0%
8-12 10.6% 0.1% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 10.6
7-13 7.5% 0.2% 0.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5
6-14 4.4% 4.4
5-15 2.4% 2.4
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 6.0% 1.0% 5.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.7 2.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 94.0 5.1%