North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.8 #34
Expected Predictive Rating +10.7 #57
Pace 70.8 #140
Improvement -2.9 #319

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #27 A- B+ A B- B-
Defense #46 C A- A+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #160 1.32 #35 +3.5 #74
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #282 0.73 #206 -2.0 #278
Three Pointers 46% #99 1.15 #28 +5.4 #31
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #29 +6.8 #29
Freethrows 17.6 #170 79% #27 13.9 #106
Second Chance 31.7% #151 1.26 #10 0.40 #48
Turnovers 13.3% #23
Total Offense +8.2 #27

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #323 1.08 #84 +4.9 #42
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #344 0.82 #277 +2.0 #51
Three Pointers 54% #4 1.02 #194 -6.6 #352
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #166 +0.3 #162
Freethrows 17.7 #199 70% #69 12.3 #186
Second Chance 24.1% #16 0.98 #107 0.24 #26
Turnovers 21.6% #10
Total Defense +5.6 #46

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #94 0.8% #239
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.8% #31 -1.3% #157
Possession Length 15.4 #37 18.7 #349
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #59 0.18 #219
Improvement -3.5 #350 +0.6 #145

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.6% 3.2% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 13.1% 15.6% 6.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.6% 73.2% 56.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 66.8% 71.6% 54.5%
Average Seed 8.2 8.1 8.7
.500 or above 97.6% 98.8% 94.4%
.500 or above in Conference 84.1% 89.0% 70.9%
Conference Champion 3.6% 4.5% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four9.0% 8.7% 10.0%
First Round64.4% 69.3% 51.6%
Second Round36.0% 39.6% 26.2%
Sweet Sixteen10.1% 11.5% 6.5%
Elite Eight3.5% 4.0% 2.2%
Final Four1.2% 1.3% 0.7%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 72.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 9
Quad 27 - 311 - 12
Quad 35 - 016 - 12
Quad 44 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 347 NC Central W 114 - 65 99%  +28  1 - 0 +34 +31 A+ A+ A+ +1 F B A+
 Fri, Nov 7 113 UAB W 94 - 70 88%  +11  2 - 0 +25 +16 A+ A+ F +8 A B- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 284 UNC Greensboro W 110 - 64 98%  +15  3 - 0 +36 +23 A- A+ A+ +10 A+ A- A+
 Mon, Nov 17 49 Virginia Commonwealth W 85 - 79 72%  +4  4 - 0 +14 +11 C+ A+ F +2 A- B- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 53 Seton Hall L 74 - 85 64%  -8  4 - 1 -1 +6 B+ D A+ -7 D F A
 Tue, Nov 25 63 Boise St. W 81 - 70 68%  +5  5 - 1 +20 +15 A+ D+ B- +5 C A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 45 Texas L 97 - 102 60%  -4  5 - 2 +6 +24 A+ A+ A+ -18 F C F
 Wed, Dec 3 33 @Auburn L 73 - 83 38%  -5  5 - 3 +7 +5 C+ F A+ +2 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 239 UNC Asheville W 75 - 63 96%  +3  6 - 3 +5 +1 D+ A+ D- +4 B+ A- B
 Wed, Dec 10 99 Liberty W 85 - 45 86%  +25  7 - 3 +42 +14 A+ F A+ +29 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 18 Kansas L 76 - 77 OT 51%  -1  7 - 4 +13 +6 B C A+ +6 B A+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 335 Texas Southern W 108 - 72 99%  +24  8 - 4 +22 +28 A+ A+ A+ -6 B+ F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 71 Mississippi W 76 - 62 71%  +15  9 - 4 +22 +7 A+ A F +15 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 62 Wake Forest W 70 - 57 77%  +7  10 - 4 1 - 0 +19 -1 C+ F C +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 22 Virginia L 61 - 76 53%  -12  10 - 5 1 - 1 -2 -2 D D C -2 D D A+
 Tue, Jan 6 151 @Boston College W 79 - 71 84%  +7  11 - 5 2 - 1 +11 +23 A+ A+ A+ -11 F D A+
 Sat, Jan 10 111 @Florida St. W 85 - 79 73% 
 Sat, Jan 17 114 Georgia Tech W 83 - 70 89% 
 Tue, Jan 20 39 @Clemson L 70 - 72 41% 
 Sat, Jan 24 82 @Pittsburgh W 76 - 72 64% 
 Tue, Jan 27 69 Syracuse W 79 - 71 78% 
 Sat, Jan 31 62 @Wake Forest W 79 - 77 57% 
 Tue, Feb 3 28 @SMU L 78 - 82 37% 
 Sat, Feb 7 68 Virginia Tech W 81 - 73 77% 
 Mon, Feb 9 15 @Louisville L 78 - 85 27% 
 Sat, Feb 14 36 Miami (FL) W 80 - 77 61% 
 Tue, Feb 17 26 North Carolina W 78 - 76 56% 
 Tue, Feb 24 22 @Virginia L 73 - 78 32% 
 Sat, Feb 28 59 @Notre Dame W 72 - 70 56% 
 Mon, Mar 2 6 Duke L 75 - 79 35% 
 Sat, Mar 7 79 Stanford W 80 - 71 80% 
Totals 20 - 11 11 - 7 +14 +8 A- B+ A +6 C A- A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.4 4.4 1.2 0.1 9.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 6.3 2.2 0.2 10.9 4th
5th 0.9 5.7 4.4 0.3 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 3.8 6.4 1.4 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 6.7 2.7 0.1 10.9 7th
8th 0.4 4.4 4.6 0.5 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 4.9 1.2 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.4 2.9 2.2 0.1 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 4.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.0 0.1 2.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.1 1.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.5 8.7 13.6 17.3 17.8 16.3 10.3 5.7 2.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 91.5% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
15-3 56.6% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 22.3% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 3.7% 0.4    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.5% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 4.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
15-3 2.4% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 4.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.7% 99.7% 15.5% 84.1% 5.8 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-5 10.3% 98.4% 10.5% 87.9% 6.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 3.2 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.3%
12-6 16.3% 94.4% 7.4% 87.0% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.4 4.5 3.5 1.7 0.2 0.9 94.0%
11-7 17.8% 85.2% 4.2% 81.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.4 4.5 4.0 1.2 2.6 84.6%
10-8 17.3% 67.8% 2.5% 65.4% 9.7 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.6 2.8 0.0 5.6 67.0%
9-9 13.6% 43.3% 1.8% 41.5% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 2.8 0.1 7.7 42.2%
8-10 8.7% 15.4% 1.3% 14.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 7.3 14.3%
7-11 4.5% 2.9% 0.6% 2.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.3 2.4%
6-12 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 1.9 0.5%
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 68.6% 5.2% 63.3% 8.2 31.4 66.8%