North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.5 #23
Expected Predictive Rating +13.4 #40
Pace 71.6 #104
Improvement +0.5 #160

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #19 A- B A- C+ B-
Defense #31 B- B A- C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #145 1.30 #50 +3.6 #67
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #280 0.74 #205 -1.9 #282
Three Pointers 44% #118 1.19 #11 +5.6 #31
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #22 +7.2 #22
Freethrows 0.31 #160 77% #37 0.24 #109
Second Chance 30.9% #167 1.24 #12 0.38 #52
Turnovers 12.6% #9
Total Offense +9.8 #19

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #306 1.04 #46 +4.7 #47
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #324 0.73 #124 +2.1 #38
Three Pointers 50% #8 0.99 #137 -4.1 #331
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #91 +2.7 #91
Freethrows 0.31 #206 68% #17 0.21 #141
Second Chance 25.1% #21 1.02 #171 0.26 #47
Turnovers 21.2% #14
Total Defense +6.6 #31

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #94 0.6% #227
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.5% #22 -5.8% #69
Possession Length 15.5 #34 18.4 #326
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #65 0.18 #206
Improvement -0.1 #185 +0.6 #147

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 9.3% 14.7% 3.7%
Top 6 Seed 39.0% 52.1% 25.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.0% 99.2% 94.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.7% 99.1% 94.3%
Average Seed 6.9 6.3 7.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 100.0% 99.3%
Conference Champion 2.3% 4.0% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.9% 0.3% 3.6%
First Round96.3% 99.1% 93.4%
Second Round65.2% 71.6% 58.6%
Sweet Sixteen23.8% 28.4% 19.1%
Elite Eight9.3% 11.1% 7.4%
Final Four3.4% 4.3% 2.6%
Championship Game1.2% 1.5% 0.9%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.3%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 50.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 8
Quad 210 - 115 - 9
Quad 34 - 119 - 10
Quad 44 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 341 NC Central W 114 - 65 99% +28  1 - 0 +34 +30 A+ A+ A +3 D+ C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 120 UAB W 94 - 70 93% +11  2 - 0 +24 +15 A+ A+ D +7 B+ C+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 312 UNC Greensboro W 110 - 64 99% +15  3 - 0 +34 +23 B A+ A+ +9 A+ B A+
 Mon, Nov 17 50 Virginia Commonwealth W 85 - 79 80% +4  4 - 0 +13 +10 C A+ F +4 B B- B-
 Mon, Nov 24 53 Seton Hall L 74 - 85 73% -8  4 - 1 -1 +7 B+ D A+ -7 D D- B+
 Tue, Nov 25 62 Boise St. W 81 - 70 76% +5  5 - 1 +20 +13 A+ D- B +7 C+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 31 Texas L 97 - 102 57% -4  5 - 2 +10 +25 A+ A+ A+ -15 F C F
 Wed, Dec 3 28 @Auburn L 73 - 83 42% -5  5 - 3 +9 +6 C+ F A+ +2 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 209 UNC Asheville W 75 - 63 97% +3  6 - 3 +6 +2 D+ A+ C- +4 B+ C+ B
 Wed, Dec 10 89 Liberty W 85 - 45 89% +25  7 - 3 +43 +14 A+ F A+ +30 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 14 Kansas L 76 - 77 OT 54% -1  7 - 4 +14 +6 B C- A+ +8 B+ A+ D
 Wed, Dec 17 309 Texas Southern W 108 - 72 99% +24  8 - 4 +24 +27 A A+ A+ -3 B+ F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 59 Mississippi W 76 - 62 75% +15  9 - 4 +23 +9 A+ B+ F +15 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 75 Wake Forest W 70 - 57 86% +7  10 - 4 1 - 0 +18 -2 C F C +20 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 25 Virginia L 61 - 76 62% -13  10 - 5 1 - 1 -2 -2 D C C+ -1 C- C- A+
 Tue, Jan 6 127 @Boston College W 79 - 71 86% +7  11 - 5 2 - 1 +13 +25 A+ A+ A+ -11 F D A+
 Sat, Jan 10 101 @Florida St. W 113 - 69 79% +24  12 - 5 3 - 1 +52 +33 A+ A+ A+ +15 A+ C B
 Sat, Jan 17 115 Georgia Tech L 74 - 78 93% -1  12 - 6 3 - 2 -4 -1 C D- B+ -3 F+ C+ A
 Tue, Jan 20 33 @Clemson W 80 - 76 OT 47% +3  13 - 6 4 - 2 +21 +16 A- F+ A+ +5 B- C B+
 Sat, Jan 24 93 @Pittsburgh W 81 - 72 76% -1  14 - 6 5 - 2 +18 +14 B- C A+ +4 A+ F A
 Tue, Jan 27 68 Syracuse W 88 - 68 85% +7  15 - 6 6 - 2 +25 +17 A+ A- B+ +8 A+ D- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 75 @Wake Forest W 96 - 78 71% +11  16 - 6 7 - 2 +29 +29 A+ B A+ -0 C+ B D+
 Tue, Feb 3 39 @SMU W 82 - 81 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 60 Virginia Tech W 82 - 72 83%
 Mon, Feb 9 16 @Louisville L 80 - 84 33%
 Sat, Feb 14 40 Miami (FL) W 83 - 76 74%
 Tue, Feb 17 29 North Carolina W 83 - 79 65%
 Tue, Feb 24 25 @Virginia L 75 - 78 39%
 Sat, Feb 28 81 @Notre Dame W 78 - 71 74%
 Mon, Mar 2 3 Duke L 74 - 78 35%
 Sat, Mar 7 86 Stanford W 84 - 71 89%
Totals 21 - 10 12 - 6 +16 +10 A- B A- +7 B- B A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.3 0.8 2.3 1st
2nd 0.4 5.2 10.5 4.8 0.4 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.0 12.6 5.0 0.3 22.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 12.0 7.1 0.5 21.4 4th
5th 0.3 6.5 6.9 0.4 14.1 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 6.4 1.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.2 3.1 1.9 0.1 5.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.1 2.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.1 7.2 16.8 24.3 25.4 16.3 6.3 1.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 65.7% 0.8    0.3 0.5 0.0
15-3 20.1% 1.3    0.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 0.5 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.2% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 3.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 100.0%
15-3 6.3% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 4.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 1.9 0.9 0.1 100.0%
14-4 16.3% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 5.5 0.0 0.7 2.6 4.5 5.2 2.7 0.5 0.1 100.0%
13-5 25.4% 99.7% 9.0% 90.7% 6.5 0.2 1.1 3.7 7.2 7.8 4.3 0.9 0.1 0.1 99.7%
12-6 24.3% 98.9% 6.8% 92.1% 7.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.7 7.0 7.2 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.3 98.9%
11-7 16.8% 94.7% 5.4% 89.3% 8.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 4.4 4.6 2.6 0.5 0.9 94.4%
10-8 7.2% 88.4% 2.8% 85.6% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.9 0.8 0.0 0.8 88.0%
9-9 2.1% 67.1% 1.2% 65.9% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.7 66.7%
8-10 0.3% 20.9% 1.5% 19.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 19.7%
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.0% 9.0% 88.0% 6.9 3.0 96.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.9 30.4 51.8 14.3 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 2.9 1.5 21.5 60.0 16.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 3.5 2.3 4.5 52.3 27.3 13.6