Oklahoma
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#38
Expected Predictive Rating+14.7#32
Pace70.1#118
Improvement+0.6#171

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#22
First Shot+7.5#25
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#121
Layup/Dunks+3.9#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#274
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#137
Freethrows+4.1#13
Improvement+0.1#183

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#69
First Shot+4.1#63
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#152
Layups/Dunks-1.2#225
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#127
Freethrows+3.1#17
Improvement+0.4#168
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 82.1% 94.7% 76.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.1% 94.6% 76.4%
Average Seed 10.0 9.4 10.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four21.2% 5.3% 28.4%
First Round72.2% 92.2% 63.1%
Second Round30.3% 40.7% 25.5%
Sweet Sixteen6.8% 7.4% 6.5%
Elite Eight2.2% 2.4% 2.1%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 103 - 10
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 11
Quad 23 - 110 - 12
Quad 33 - 113 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 332   Lindenwood W 93-60 98%     1 - 0 +19.5 +12.5 +5.5
  Nov 11, 2024 247   Northwestern St. W 73-57 96%     2 - 0 +8.6 -0.9 +9.8
  Nov 16, 2024 350   Stetson W 85-64 99%     3 - 0 +5.2 +2.5 +2.7
  Nov 21, 2024 335   Texas A&M - Commerce W 84-56 99%     4 - 0 +13.9 +6.8 +7.4
  Nov 27, 2024 91   Providence W 79-77 76%     5 - 0 +7.7 +7.9 -0.2
  Nov 28, 2024 12   Arizona W 82-77 31%     6 - 0 +23.0 +17.3 +5.7
  Nov 29, 2024 23   Louisville W 69-64 39%     7 - 0 +20.9 +12.0 +9.5
  Dec 03, 2024 94   Georgia Tech W 76-61 84%     8 - 0 +17.5 +12.5 +6.2
  Dec 07, 2024 325   Alcorn St. W 94-78 98%     9 - 0 +3.3 +13.0 -10.2
  Dec 14, 2024 92   Oklahoma St. W 80-65 76%     10 - 0 +20.6 +10.7 +9.7
  Dec 18, 2024 31   Michigan W 87-86 45%     11 - 0 +15.2 +22.3 -7.1
  Dec 22, 2024 344   Central Arkansas W 89-66 99%     12 - 0 +7.9 +5.2 +1.8
  Dec 29, 2024 360   Prairie View W 89-67 99%     13 - 0 +3.1 +11.9 -7.6
  Jan 04, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 79-107 15%     13 - 1 0 - 1 -4.1 +7.0 -8.4
  Jan 08, 2025 22   Texas A&M L 78-80 48%     13 - 2 0 - 2 +11.6 +21.2 -9.8
  Jan 11, 2025 33   @ Georgia L 62-72 37%     13 - 3 0 - 3 +6.5 -0.4 +6.6
  Jan 15, 2025 42   Texas L 73-77 65%     13 - 4 0 - 4 +5.1 +0.4 +4.9
  Jan 18, 2025 71   South Carolina W 82-62 77%     14 - 4 1 - 4 +25.3 +16.1 +9.9
  Jan 25, 2025 37   @ Arkansas W 65-62 39%     15 - 4 2 - 4 +18.8 +7.4 +11.6
  Jan 28, 2025 22   @ Texas A&M L 68-75 28%     15 - 5 2 - 5 +12.1 +12.7 -1.2
  Feb 01, 2025 51   Vanderbilt W 97-67 68%     16 - 5 3 - 5 +38.2 +20.3 +16.1
  Feb 04, 2025 2   @ Auburn L 70-98 10%     16 - 6 3 - 6 -1.0 +4.0 -3.6
  Feb 08, 2025 6   Tennessee L 52-70 33%     16 - 7 3 - 7 -0.5 -5.7 +3.7
  Feb 12, 2025 18   @ Missouri L 58-82 27%     16 - 8 3 - 8 -4.5 -12.9 +9.7
  Feb 15, 2025 86   LSU L 79-82 81%     16 - 9 3 - 9 +0.6 +6.0 -5.2
  Feb 18, 2025 3   @ Florida L 63-85 11%     16 - 10 3 - 10 +4.3 +2.5 +1.5
  Feb 22, 2025 30   Mississippi St. W 93-87 56%     17 - 10 4 - 10 +17.5 +17.9 -0.8
  Feb 26, 2025 14   Kentucky L 82-83 42%     17 - 11 4 - 11 +13.9 +8.2 +5.8
  Mar 01, 2025 29   @ Mississippi L 84-87 35%     17 - 12 4 - 12 +14.1 +17.9 -3.8
  Mar 05, 2025 18   Missouri W 96-84 46%     18 - 12 5 - 12 +26.0 +26.3 -0.2
  Mar 08, 2025 42   @ Texas W 76-72 44%     19 - 12 6 - 12 +18.6 +11.6 +7.0
  Mar 12, 2025 33   Georgia W 81-75 47%     20 - 12 +19.7 +17.3 +2.5
  Mar 13, 2025 14   Kentucky L 81-86 32%    
Projected Record 20 - 13 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 100.0 100.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 100.0% 82.1% 0.3% 81.9% 10.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 3.5 17.4 34.2 26.0 0.4 17.9 82.1%
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 82.1% 0.3% 81.9% 10.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 3.5 17.4 34.2 26.0 0.4 17.9 82.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 6.5 11.1 37.0 44.4 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 8.0 1.2 6.0 14.3 46.4 32.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.1% 99.4% 8.9 0.2 0.4 3.0 24.5 51.8 19.4 0.2
Lose Out 68.6% 76.4% 10.3 0.5 8.3 32.6 34.4 0.6