Oklahoma St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.6 #56
Expected Predictive Rating +12.6 #46
Pace 78.7 #13
Improvement -4.1 #335

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #55 B- C+ B B A-
Defense #82 C+ C+ C+ B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 52% #1 1.17 #155 +8.0 #8
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #334 0.71 #249 -3.4 #334
Three Pointers 36% #282 1.12 #48 -0.6 #208
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #68 +4.0 #68
Freethrows 0.33 #91 76% #64 0.25 #68
Second Chance 31.8% #148 1.07 #112 0.34 #115
Turnovers 14.7% #63
Total Offense +6.2 #55

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #253 1.12 #120 +2.2 #104
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #307 0.78 #226 +1.5 #68
Three Pointers 48% #27 0.96 #93 -2.1 #279
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #128 +1.6 #129
Freethrows 0.27 #72 71% #97 0.19 #69
Second Chance 27.4% #69 1.06 #245 0.29 #121
Turnovers 18.0% #98
Total Defense +3.3 #82

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.0% #11 0.8% #241
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.7% #112 -3.8% #99
Possession Length 15.4 #32 17.0 #137
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #62 0.17 #182
Improvement -2.6 #322 -1.6 #273

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.7% 38.6% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.6% 38.5% 15.9%
Average Seed 10.2 10.0 10.5
.500 or above 98.6% 100.0% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 12.3% 26.0% 6.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.4% 3.0%
First Four11.9% 16.9% 9.8%
First Round16.0% 29.1% 10.5%
Second Round5.6% 10.4% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.7% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Home) - 29.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 10
Quad 28 - 410 - 13
Quad 33 - 012 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 335 Oral Roberts W 95 - 71 98% +9  1 - 0 +10 -1 D B+ D- +7 A C C+
 Sun, Nov 9 27 Texas A&M W 87 - 63 39% +14  2 - 0 +37 +16 B C+ A+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 339 Prairie View W 94 - 67 98% +16  3 - 0 +13 +4 D- A C+ +5 C- A- C
 Sun, Nov 16 196 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85 - 69 91% +9  4 - 0 +11 +4 B- B- C- +5 A- B C
 Wed, Nov 19 70 South Florida W 103 - 95 67% +2  5 - 0 +13 +17 A+ C+ F+ -5 F A+ B
 Sat, Nov 22 249 Nicholls St. W 95 - 81 94% +12  6 - 0 +6 +5 B- F B+ -1 C+ F B
 Thu, Nov 27 63 Northwestern W 86 - 81 53% +2  7 - 0 +14 +13 D- A+ A- +1 B D C+
 Tue, Dec 2 108 Sam Houston St. W 93 - 83 80% +0  8 - 0 +11 +9 B- A+ D+ +0 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 65 Grand Canyon W 84 - 78 54% +2  9 - 0 +15 +18 A+ D+ C+ -4 B F+ F+
 Sat, Dec 13 55 Oklahoma L 76 - 85 49% -4  9 - 1 +1 +4 C- F A+ -3 C A- C-
 Thu, Dec 18 358 UMKC W 91 - 79 99% +6  10 - 1 -6 +3 A+ F F+ -10 F+ C+ D-
 Sun, Dec 21 224 Cal St. Fullerton W 94 - 89 92% +10  11 - 1 -1 +8 A- D D+ -10 F F B-
 Mon, Dec 29 236 Bethune-Cookman W 103 - 77 93% +13  12 - 1 +19 +15 C- A A+ +0 D- B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 17 @Texas Tech L 80 - 102 15% -12  12 - 2 0 - 1 -1 +8 B C- A+ -8 C D F
 Tue, Jan 6 44 Central Florida W 87 - 76 53% +6  13 - 2 1 - 1 +20 +5 A+ F D +13 A+ B- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 4 @Iowa St. L 71 - 83 8% -3  13 - 3 1 - 2 +13 +8 B+ F+ B +5 A+ B C-
 Tue, Jan 13 47 Baylor L 79 - 94 54% -13  13 - 4 1 - 3 -6 +11 B B+ B- -17 F D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 92 Kansas St. W 84 - 83 73% +2  14 - 4 2 - 3 +4 +11 C- A+ A+ -7 C- F A+
 Tue, Jan 20 51 @TCU L 65 - 68 36% +1  14 - 5 2 - 4 +10 +2 C- B C +8 C+ B A
 Sat, Jan 24 4 Iowa St. L 71 - 84 18% -18  14 - 6 2 - 5 +6 +8 B C B+ -1 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 104 @Utah W 81 - 69 59% +1  15 - 6 3 - 5 +19 +12 B C+ A- +8 A A+ D
 Wed, Feb 4 15 BYU L 83 - 89 30%
 Sat, Feb 7 2 @Arizona L 76 - 94 5%
 Tue, Feb 10 77 @Arizona St. L 84 - 85 46%
 Sat, Feb 14 51 TCU W 80 - 78 59%
 Wed, Feb 18 14 Kansas L 77 - 83 29%
 Sat, Feb 21 72 @Colorado L 84 - 85 45%
 Tue, Feb 24 57 West Virginia W 74 - 71 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 52 @Cincinnati L 74 - 78 37%
 Tue, Mar 3 44 @Central Florida L 83 - 88 32%
 Sat, Mar 7 6 Houston L 72 - 81 20%
Totals 19 - 12 7 - 11 +10 +6 B- C+ B +3 C+ C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 5th
6th 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.4 2.3 1.4 0.1 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.6 4.4 0.5 0.0 11.4 8th
9th 0.5 6.6 8.3 1.1 0.0 16.5 9th
10th 0.0 3.7 10.1 2.2 0.1 16.1 10th
11th 0.7 8.8 5.1 0.2 14.8 11th
12th 0.0 4.4 8.1 0.8 0.0 13.4 12th
13th 1.4 7.2 2.3 0.0 10.9 13th
14th 0.5 4.1 3.1 0.2 8.0 14th
15th 0.7 1.3 0.1 2.1 15th
16th 0.2 0.1 0.3 16th
Total 1.4 7.0 15.6 23.6 23.4 16.8 8.2 3.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 100.0% 6.3% 93.8% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 100.0%
11-7 0.7% 95.9% 0.7% 95.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.9%
10-8 3.2% 91.7% 0.8% 91.0% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.3 91.7%
9-9 8.2% 76.7% 0.2% 76.4% 10.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.7 1.9 1.9 76.6%
8-10 16.8% 45.6% 0.1% 45.5% 10.7 0.0 0.4 1.7 5.4 0.1 9.1 45.5%
7-11 23.4% 17.4% 0.1% 17.4% 10.9 0.1 0.4 3.4 0.3 0.0 19.3 17.4%
6-12 23.6% 3.5% 0.1% 3.5% 11.1 0.0 0.7 0.1 22.8 3.5%
5-13 15.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 15.6 0.3%
4-14 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 6.9 0.1%
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.7% 0.1% 22.6% 10.2 77.3 22.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%