Oklahoma St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#96
Expected Predictive Rating+7.6#78
Pace75.3#39
Improvement-1.6#277

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#114
First Shot+1.5#132
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#120
Layup/Dunks+1.0#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#179
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#298
Freethrows+4.6#6
Improvement-0.9#248

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#97
First Shot+4.2#58
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#288
Layups/Dunks+2.6#78
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#268
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#183
Freethrows+2.4#37
Improvement-0.7#237
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 10.9% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.1% 10.8% 2.9%
Average Seed 9.8 9.5 9.9
.500 or above 24.6% 45.9% 20.9%
.500 or above in Conference 7.6% 18.4% 5.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.7% 15.1% 33.3%
First Four1.6% 3.6% 1.3%
First Round3.2% 8.7% 2.2%
Second Round1.2% 3.4% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Home) - 14.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 12
Quad 23 - 55 - 17
Quad 34 - 19 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 329   Green Bay W 89-76 94%     1 - 0 +0.4 +2.7 -3.1
  Nov 10, 2024 125   St. Thomas W 80-71 72%     2 - 0 +8.3 -0.8 +8.4
  Nov 14, 2024 196   Southern Illinois W 85-78 83%     3 - 0 +2.2 +6.9 -5.0
  Nov 21, 2024 88   Florida Atlantic L 78-86 46%     3 - 1 -1.7 -7.5 +7.1
  Nov 22, 2024 103   Miami (FL) W 80-74 53%     4 - 1 +10.6 +10.3 +0.7
  Nov 24, 2024 60   Nevada L 78-90 35%     4 - 2 -2.7 +10.2 -13.1
  Dec 04, 2024 239   @ Tulsa W 76-55 74%     5 - 2 +19.7 -0.8 +19.5
  Dec 08, 2024 118   @ Seton Hall W 85-76 48%     6 - 2 +14.9 +22.0 -6.9
  Dec 14, 2024 35   Oklahoma L 65-80 25%     6 - 3 -2.7 -4.2 +1.7
  Dec 18, 2024 286   Tarleton St. W 66-61 91%     7 - 3 -4.7 -6.7 +2.2
  Dec 22, 2024 284   Oral Roberts W 86-74 91%     8 - 3 +2.4 +4.5 -2.4
  Dec 30, 2024 5   Houston L 63-74 15%    
  Jan 04, 2025 39   @ West Virginia L 69-78 19%    
  Jan 07, 2025 85   Kansas St. W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 66   @ Utah L 76-82 29%    
  Jan 14, 2025 41   @ BYU L 74-83 20%    
  Jan 18, 2025 77   Colorado W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 21, 2025 11   Arizona L 76-84 24%    
  Jan 26, 2025 20   @ Texas Tech L 69-82 12%    
  Jan 29, 2025 85   @ Kansas St. L 73-77 34%    
  Feb 01, 2025 66   Utah W 79-78 51%    
  Feb 04, 2025 5   @ Houston L 60-77 6%    
  Feb 09, 2025 59   Arizona St. L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 12, 2025 67   @ TCU L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 20   Texas Tech L 72-79 28%    
  Feb 19, 2025 81   Central Florida W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 8   @ Kansas L 68-84 8%    
  Feb 25, 2025 6   Iowa St. L 73-84 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 12   @ Baylor L 69-83 11%    
  Mar 05, 2025 81   @ Central Florida L 73-78 33%    
  Mar 08, 2025 26   Cincinnati L 69-75 31%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 2.4 0.8 0.1 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 3.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 8.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.4 5.0 1.2 0.0 10.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 3.0 5.9 2.5 0.2 11.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.3 3.8 0.5 0.0 13.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.6 4.8 1.0 0.0 16.4 15th
16th 0.5 2.4 5.1 6.6 4.3 1.1 0.1 20.1 16th
Total 0.5 2.5 5.7 10.3 13.9 15.7 15.0 13.0 9.6 6.3 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 27.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.2% 100.0% 3.6% 96.4% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.4% 91.4% 1.8% 89.6% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.2%
12-8 1.0% 75.7% 0.8% 74.8% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 75.5%
11-9 2.1% 54.2% 0.4% 53.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 54.0%
10-10 3.9% 28.0% 0.3% 27.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.0 2.8 27.7%
9-11 6.3% 6.9% 0.1% 6.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.9 6.8%
8-12 9.6% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.5 1.0%
7-13 13.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 12.9 0.0%
6-14 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 15.0
5-15 15.7% 15.7
4-16 13.9% 13.9
3-17 10.3% 10.3
2-18 5.7% 5.7
1-19 2.5% 2.5
0-20 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 4.1% 0.1% 4.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 95.9 4.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%