Oklahoma St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.8 #54
Expected Predictive Rating +15.4 #32
Pace 82.3 #7
Improvement -3.7 #347

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #55 B C+ A- A- A
Defense #77 C+ B C B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% #3 1.23 #94 +8.7 #5
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #301 0.74 #193 -2.3 #291
Three Pointers 35% #299 1.07 #105 -1.9 #253
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #64 +4.5 #64
Freethrows 20.4 #49 76% #91 15.4 #35
Second Chance 30.7% #187 1.12 #98 0.34 #136
Turnovers 14.0% #38
Total Offense +6.2 #55

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #303 1.13 #138 +3.3 #72
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #300 0.76 #187 +1.6 #82
Three Pointers 50% #19 0.97 #130 -3.4 #311
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #134 +1.5 #132
Freethrows 15.2 #73 68% #44 10.4 #314
Second Chance 26.2% #44 1.04 #180 0.27 #70
Turnovers 16.7% #176
Total Defense +3.6 #77

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.3% #19 0.4% #199
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.4% #100 -3.1% #123
Possession Length 15.2 #30 16.4 #53
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #71 0.18 #217
Improvement -1.6 #277 -2.2 #305

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 1.5% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 3.5% 11.2% 3.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.5% 67.3% 38.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 40.4% 67.1% 38.7%
Average Seed 9.1 8.4 9.2
.500 or above 95.9% 99.5% 95.6%
.500 or above in Conference 27.2% 53.4% 25.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.3% 0.9% 5.6%
First Four11.4% 10.8% 11.4%
First Round34.3% 61.7% 32.5%
Second Round14.7% 29.2% 13.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 4.6% 2.7%
Elite Eight0.6% 1.2% 0.6%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 6.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 10
Quad 27 - 310 - 12
Quad 33 - 013 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 298 Oral Roberts W 95 - 71 96%  +9  1 - 0 +13 +0 D B+ C- +9 A+ C+ C
 Sun, Nov 9 40 Texas A&M W 87 - 63 51%  +14  2 - 0 +34 +15 B+ C A+ +18 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 306 Prairie View W 94 - 67 97%  +16  3 - 0 +15 +5 D- A+ B- +8 C- A+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 183 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85 - 69 90%  +9  4 - 0 +11 +4 B B+ D +6 A A B-
 Wed, Nov 19 89 South Florida W 103 - 95 72%  +2  5 - 0 +12 +16 A+ C+ D- -6 F A+ B+
 Sat, Nov 22 215 Nicholls St. W 95 - 81 92%  +12  6 - 0 +8 +7 A- F B+ -1 A- F B
 Thu, Nov 27 60 Northwestern W 86 - 81 53%  +2  7 - 0 +14 +12 D- A+ A+ +2 A- D B-
 Tue, Dec 2 134 Sam Houston St. W 93 - 83 85%  +0  8 - 0 +9 +8 C+ A+ F -1 F A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 83 Grand Canyon W 84 - 78 61%  +2  9 - 0 +13 +17 A+ D+ B- -4 B F F
 Sat, Dec 13 48 Oklahoma L 76 - 85 46%  -4  9 - 1 +2 +4 C- F A+ -2 C A C
 Thu, Dec 18 343 UMKC W 91 - 79 98%  +6  10 - 1 -3 +5 A+ C- F -9 F B- F
 Sun, Dec 21 232 Cal St. Fullerton W 94 - 89 93%  +10  11 - 1 -2 +6 A+ D- F -8 F F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 278 Bethune-Cookman W 103 - 77 95%  +13  12 - 1 +16 +12 D- A+ A+ +1 F B A+
 Sat, Jan 3 17 @Texas Tech L 80 - 102 18%  -12  12 - 2 0 - 1 -2 +8 B C- A+ -9 C- D+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 50 Central Florida W 87 - 76 58%  +6  13 - 2 1 - 1 +19 +5 A+ F D +12 A+ B- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 3 @Iowa St. L 74 - 90 6% 
 Tue, Jan 13 32 Baylor L 85 - 86 45% 
 Sat, Jan 17 74 Kansas St. W 92 - 87 68% 
 Tue, Jan 20 44 @TCU L 77 - 82 31% 
 Sat, Jan 24 3 Iowa St. L 77 - 87 17% 
 Sat, Jan 31 117 @Utah W 87 - 83 63% 
 Wed, Feb 4 8 BYU L 81 - 89 24% 
 Sat, Feb 7 2 @Arizona L 78 - 95 6% 
 Tue, Feb 10 88 @Arizona St. W 86 - 85 50% 
 Sat, Feb 14 44 TCU W 80 - 79 54% 
 Wed, Feb 18 18 Kansas L 79 - 83 36% 
 Sat, Feb 21 77 @Colorado L 86 - 87 47% 
 Tue, Feb 24 67 West Virginia W 77 - 73 65% 
 Sat, Feb 28 58 @Cincinnati L 78 - 80 41% 
 Tue, Mar 3 50 @Central Florida L 85 - 89 36% 
 Sat, Mar 7 11 Houston L 72 - 79 28% 
Totals 19 - 12 7 - 11 +10 +6 B C+ A- +4 C+ B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 4.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 3.2 1.2 0.1 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 4.5 2.2 0.3 8.3 7th
8th 0.5 4.5 4.4 0.6 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.1 3.0 6.7 1.4 0.1 11.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 6.5 3.2 0.3 11.1 10th
11th 0.4 4.8 5.3 0.5 0.0 11.0 11th
12th 0.1 2.5 6.4 1.6 0.0 10.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 5.0 3.2 0.2 9.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 3.3 3.6 0.5 7.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.4 0.6 0.0 4.9 15th
16th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.1 16th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.3 7.1 12.2 16.2 17.0 16.2 12.5 7.7 4.1 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 77.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 15.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.8% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.6% 100.0% 2.4% 97.6% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 2.0% 99.7% 1.3% 98.5% 6.4 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.7%
11-7 4.1% 98.3% 0.9% 97.4% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 98.3%
10-8 7.7% 94.9% 0.6% 94.3% 8.3 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.4 94.9%
9-9 12.5% 85.4% 0.2% 85.2% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.6 3.1 1.3 1.8 85.4%
8-10 16.2% 58.5% 0.1% 58.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.6 4.2 0.1 6.7 58.5%
7-11 17.0% 28.0% 0.1% 27.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.6 0.1 12.3 27.9%
6-12 16.2% 7.6% 0.0% 7.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 14.9 7.6%
5-13 12.2% 1.1% 0.0% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.0 1.0%
4-14 7.1% 7.1
3-15 3.3% 3.3
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 40.5% 0.2% 40.3% 9.1 59.5 40.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%