Oregon
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.9 #65
Expected Predictive Rating +4.6 #105
Pace 68.6 #202
Improvement +2.1 #73

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #68 C A C C+ C+
Defense #73 B+ B- C- B- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #241 1.11 #237 -2.1 #256
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #280 0.82 #93 -1.3 #236
Three Pointers 48% #51 1.05 #133 +4.4 #46
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #152 +1.0 #151
Freethrows 18.3 #135 73% #161 13.4 #132
Second Chance 39.0% #19 1.13 #89 0.44 #27
Turnovers 17.2% #218
Total Offense +5.0 #68

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #325 0.99 #24 +6.4 #19
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #36 0.85 #311 -3.7 #358
Three Pointers 41% #181 0.91 #65 +2.0 #107
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #51 +4.7 #51
Freethrows 15.0 #67 76% #314 11.4 #260
Second Chance 29.6% #134 0.96 #79 0.28 #98
Turnovers 16.0% #217
Total Defense +3.8 #73

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #125 -2.5% #27
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.0% #157 -6.8% #68
Possession Length 17.2 #166 17.7 #259
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #203 0.18 #189
Improvement +2.1 #62 +0.1 #187

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 7.8% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.0% 7.8% 1.9%
Average Seed 10.0 9.7 10.2
.500 or above 13.3% 27.8% 10.1%
.500 or above in Conference 4.9% 12.6% 3.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.1% 2.2% 9.3%
First Four1.4% 3.1% 1.0%
First Round2.2% 6.1% 1.4%
Second Round1.0% 2.5% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska (Away) - 17.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 13
Quad 23 - 55 - 18
Quad 33 - 18 - 18
Quad 45 - 013 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 98 Hawaii W 60 - 59 74%  +3  1 - 0 +3 -12 D- A F +15 A+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 245 Rice W 67 - 63 93%  +0  2 - 0 -4 -6 F A- C- +3 B- B- A
 Wed, Nov 12 173 South Dakota St. W 83 - 69 88%  +5  3 - 0 +10 +6 B- B B +4 B- A- C-
 Mon, Nov 17 182 Oregon St. W 87 - 75 89%  +7  4 - 0 +7 +14 B+ A+ C+ -6 C+ C- C-
 Mon, Nov 24 33 Auburn L 73 - 84 31%  -3  4 - 1 +3 +4 D- A+ F -1 A+ C F
 Tue, Nov 25 52 San Diego St. L 80 - 97 44%  -10  4 - 2 -7 +12 A+ D B+ -18 F F A
 Thu, Nov 27 37 Creighton L 66 - 76 33%  -6  4 - 3 +3 +1 D A- B +1 A A+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 46 USC L 77 - 82 53%  +1  4 - 4 0 - 1 +3 +9 A A D- -6 D+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 38 @UCLA L 63 - 74 24%  -8  4 - 5 0 - 2 +5 +7 F A+ B+ -3 B- D+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 171 UC Davis W 104 - 62 88%  +30  5 - 5 +38 +25 A+ A+ C+ +12 A+ A B-
 Wed, Dec 17 238 Portland W 94 - 69 93%  +11  6 - 5 +18 +8 A+ C+ D +7 A B C+
 Sun, Dec 21 10 Gonzaga L 82 - 91 14%  -4  6 - 6 +11 +20 A+ A+ A+ -9 B A F
 Sun, Dec 28 257 Nebraska Omaha W 80 - 57 94%  +11  7 - 6 +14 +9 B+ C C+ +8 A+ C- D-
 Fri, Jan 2 107 @Maryland W 64 - 54 56%  +5  8 - 6 1 - 2 +17 +1 C+ C- D- +17 A+ A+ D
 Mon, Jan 5 131 @Rutgers L 85 - 88 OT 65%  +1  8 - 7 1 - 3 +2 +10 C A+ F -8 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 30 Ohio St. L 62 - 72 41%  -8  8 - 8 1 - 4 +1 +0 F B+ A+ -0 A+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 23 @Nebraska L 68 - 78 18% 
 Sun, Jan 18 1 Michigan L 71 - 86 8% 
 Tue, Jan 20 14 Michigan St. L 67 - 73 28% 
 Sun, Jan 25 47 @Washington L 72 - 77 32% 
 Wed, Jan 28 38 UCLA L 73 - 74 46% 
 Sun, Feb 1 20 Iowa L 69 - 73 33% 
 Sat, Feb 7 4 @Purdue L 66 - 83 6% 
 Mon, Feb 9 25 @Indiana L 71 - 81 19% 
 Sat, Feb 14 105 Penn St. W 79 - 72 75% 
 Tue, Feb 17 76 Minnesota W 71 - 67 65% 
 Sat, Feb 21 46 @USC L 75 - 80 31% 
 Wed, Feb 25 43 Wisconsin W 77 - 76 50% 
 Sat, Feb 28 60 @Northwestern L 73 - 76 38% 
 Tue, Mar 3 9 @Illinois L 69 - 83 9% 
 Sat, Mar 7 47 Washington W 75 - 74 53% 
Totals 13 - 18 6 - 14 +9 +5 C A C +4 B+ B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 7th
8th 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 1.1 0.1 2.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 2.4 0.6 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 3.7 2.2 0.1 6.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 4.2 4.3 0.6 0.0 9.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 4.1 7.4 2.0 0.1 13.8 13th
14th 0.2 3.7 9.2 4.4 0.3 17.9 14th
15th 0.2 2.8 8.3 5.5 0.7 0.0 17.5 15th
16th 0.1 1.6 6.0 4.9 0.8 0.0 13.4 16th
17th 0.0 1.0 3.3 3.1 0.8 0.0 8.1 17th
18th 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.8 18th
Total 0.3 2.2 6.2 12.5 18.0 20.1 17.6 11.5 6.7 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 94.2% 1.4% 92.8% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.1%
11-9 1.3% 69.3% 0.4% 68.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 69.2%
10-10 3.1% 36.9% 0.3% 36.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.0 2.0 36.7%
9-11 6.7% 6.3% 6.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 6.3 6.3%
8-12 11.5% 0.6% 0.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.5 0.6%
7-13 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 17.6 0.0%
6-14 20.1% 20.1
5-15 18.0% 18.0
4-16 12.5% 12.5
3-17 6.2% 6.2
2-18 2.2% 2.2
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20
Total 100% 3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 10.0 97.0 3.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%