Oregon
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.6#23
Expected Predictive Rating+22.1#5
Pace68.9#185
Improvement+1.1#118

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#27
First Shot+7.3#24
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#168
Layup/Dunks+3.8#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#265
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#143
Freethrows+4.0#12
Improvement-0.1#184

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#26
First Shot+7.6#11
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#241
Layups/Dunks+4.6#42
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#153
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#249
Freethrows+4.0#6
Improvement+1.2#92
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.3% 4.4% 1.5%
Top 2 Seed 14.5% 14.8% 5.7%
Top 4 Seed 46.8% 47.4% 27.7%
Top 6 Seed 74.5% 75.0% 58.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.9% 97.1% 91.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.6% 96.8% 91.0%
Average Seed 4.9 4.9 5.9
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 83.9% 84.2% 74.3%
Conference Champion 10.7% 10.9% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.8%
First Four2.1% 2.0% 4.1%
First Round95.9% 96.1% 89.4%
Second Round72.7% 73.1% 58.0%
Sweet Sixteen37.1% 37.4% 24.6%
Elite Eight15.5% 15.7% 9.5%
Final Four6.4% 6.4% 3.7%
Championship Game2.5% 2.6% 1.0%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.4%

Next Game: Weber St. (Home) - 97.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 7
Quad 27 - 216 - 9
Quad 34 - 020 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 177   UC Riverside W 91-76 95%     1 - 0 +11.1 +15.5 -4.5
  Nov 08, 2024 191   Montana W 79-48 95%     2 - 0 +26.4 +8.3 +20.5
  Nov 12, 2024 314   Portland W 80-70 OT 98%     3 - 0 -1.6 -8.1 +5.2
  Nov 17, 2024 120   Troy W 82-61 91%     4 - 0 +20.8 +5.8 +13.9
  Nov 21, 2024 61   @ Oregon St. W 78-75 61%     5 - 0 +14.6 +16.5 -1.7
  Nov 26, 2024 25   Texas A&M W 80-70 52%     6 - 0 +24.1 +17.1 +7.1
  Nov 27, 2024 38   San Diego St. W 78-68 61%     7 - 0 +21.8 +16.0 +6.1
  Nov 30, 2024 9   Alabama W 83-81 38%     8 - 0 +19.9 +12.1 +7.7
  Dec 04, 2024 71   @ USC W 68-60 64%     9 - 0 1 - 0 +18.8 +2.6 +16.4
  Dec 08, 2024 18   UCLA L 71-73 60%     9 - 1 1 - 1 +9.9 +10.4 -0.6
  Dec 15, 2024 214   Stephen F. Austin W 79-61 96%     10 - 1 +12.4 +8.1 +4.1
  Dec 21, 2024 94   Stanford W 76-61 81%     11 - 1 +20.4 +7.0 +13.9
  Dec 29, 2024 210   Weber St. W 82-62 97%    
  Jan 02, 2025 21   Illinois W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 05, 2025 13   Maryland W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 09, 2025 29   @ Ohio St. L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 12, 2025 32   @ Penn St. L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 18, 2025 27   Purdue W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 21, 2025 95   Washington W 79-67 88%    
  Jan 25, 2025 111   @ Minnesota W 70-62 77%    
  Jan 30, 2025 18   @ UCLA L 66-69 38%    
  Feb 02, 2025 46   Nebraska W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 05, 2025 19   @ Michigan L 73-76 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 11, 2025 55   Northwestern W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 16, 2025 64   Rutgers W 80-71 80%    
  Feb 19, 2025 42   @ Iowa W 81-80 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 34   @ Wisconsin L 74-75 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 71   USC W 78-68 81%    
  Mar 04, 2025 51   Indiana W 79-72 74%    
  Mar 09, 2025 95   @ Washington W 76-70 71%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 3.2 3.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 10.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 4.1 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.0 4.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.7 5.4 1.9 0.1 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.0 3.2 0.3 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 4.6 0.8 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.8 2.2 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.7 3.7 0.4 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.7 1.3 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.2 2.1 2.7 0.3 5.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 2.5 0.9 0.0 4.2 11th
12th 0.2 1.5 1.5 0.1 3.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.6 7.5 11.0 14.0 15.6 14.8 12.2 8.6 4.8 2.2 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 98.7% 0.6    0.6 0.0
17-3 92.5% 2.0    1.7 0.3 0.0
16-4 71.2% 3.5    2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 37.4% 3.2    1.0 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 9.9% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.7% 10.7 5.5 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 39.6% 60.4% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.2% 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.8% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 2.0 1.3 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.6% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 2.6 1.0 3.2 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.2% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 3.2 0.4 2.2 5.1 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.8% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 4.0 0.1 0.9 4.1 5.2 3.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 15.6% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 4.8 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 5.1 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 14.0% 100.0% 3.9% 96.1% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 3.8 4.5 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 11.0% 99.7% 3.1% 96.6% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.1 2.9 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-11 7.5% 97.2% 1.5% 95.7% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.1 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.2 97.1%
8-12 4.6% 87.4% 0.6% 86.8% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.6 87.4%
7-13 2.4% 61.3% 0.2% 61.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.9 61.2%
6-14 1.1% 25.9% 25.9% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.8 25.9%
5-15 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4%
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 96.9% 9.6% 87.4% 4.9 4.3 10.2 16.3 16.1 15.0 12.7 7.8 5.5 4.2 3.0 1.9 0.1 3.1 96.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 85.7 14.3