Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.1 #82
Expected Predictive Rating +2.0 #135
Pace 63.5 #325
Improvement +3.5 #31

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #77 B C C+ C- C
Defense #95 B- A- C C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #198 1.22 #108 +0.7 #147
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #217 0.82 #92 -0.2 #184
Three Pointers 44% #130 1.10 #79 +3.4 #77
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #79 +4.0 #77
Freethrows 17.3 #192 67% #318 11.6 #245
Second Chance 35.0% #69 0.97 #265 0.34 #143
Turnovers 16.0% #138
Total Offense +4.4 #77

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #142 1.07 #81 +0.9 #149
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #181 0.78 #209 -0.2 #198
Three Pointers 40% #219 0.97 #134 +1.5 #128
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #107 +2.2 #106
Freethrows 17.9 #214 76% #308 13.6 #111
Second Chance 25.9% #39 0.91 #38 0.24 #23
Turnovers 16.5% #189
Total Defense +2.7 #95

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #158 0.3% #190
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.2% #74 -4.6% #98
Possession Length 18.5 #305 17.5 #224
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #175 0.17 #160
Improvement +2.2 #54 +1.3 #95

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 3.0% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.9% 2.8% 0.8%
Average Seed 10.1 10.1 10.2
.500 or above 17.9% 25.0% 8.8%
.500 or above in Conference 15.8% 22.3% 7.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.2% 5.5% 16.2%
First Four0.9% 1.3% 0.4%
First Round1.6% 2.3% 0.6%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Syracuse (Home) - 56.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 10
Quad 24 - 56 - 16
Quad 33 - 29 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 210 Youngstown St. W 74 - 59 88%  +3  1 - 0 +9 +5 D+ A+ F +6 C A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 7 279 Longwood W 78 - 60 93%  +5  2 - 0 +8 +0 C- C F +8 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 197 Eastern Michigan W 78 - 66 87%  +11  3 - 0 +7 +5 B- C A+ +2 A+ B+ D-
 Thu, Nov 13 67 @West Virginia L 49 - 71 33%  -9  3 - 1 -10 -11 C F D+ -1 B B+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 314 Bucknell W 84 - 50 95%  +20  4 - 1 +22 +15 A+ A+ F +10 A+ A- A+
 Thu, Nov 20 50 Central Florida L 67 - 77 36%  -5  4 - 2 +1 +5 D+ B+ C- -6 B F B+
 Sun, Nov 23 158 Quinnipiac L 75 - 83 83%  -5  4 - 3 -11 +4 A B- F -15 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 28 30 Ohio St. W 67 - 66 34%  +4  5 - 3 +12 +3 C+ F A+ +10 A+ B+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 40 Texas A&M L 73 - 81 40%  -4  5 - 4 +2 +10 C A+ A -9 B C D
 Sun, Dec 7 109 Hofstra L 73 - 80 71%  -7  5 - 5 -6 +10 A+ F C- -17 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 31 @Villanova L 61 - 79 17%  -6  5 - 6 -1 +9 D A+ C- -13 D A F
 Wed, Dec 17 359 Binghamton W 103 - 63 98%  +21  6 - 6 +22 +19 A+ F F +2 F A A+
 Sun, Dec 21 105 Penn St. W 80 - 46 60%  +16  7 - 6 +38 +15 A+ C- A+ +27 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 36 @Miami (FL) L 69 - 76 19%  +1  7 - 7 0 - 1 +10 +8 C B A+ +1 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 39 Clemson L 68 - 73 39%  -2  7 - 8 0 - 2 +5 +4 B C C+ +1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 69 Syracuse W 72 - 70 56% 
 Wed, Jan 14 114 @Georgia Tech W 72 - 71 52% 
 Sat, Jan 17 15 Louisville L 73 - 80 24% 
 Wed, Jan 21 151 @Boston College W 69 - 65 64% 
 Sat, Jan 24 34 North Carolina St. L 72 - 76 36% 
 Tue, Jan 27 62 Wake Forest W 73 - 72 54% 
 Sat, Jan 31 39 @Clemson L 63 - 72 21% 
 Tue, Feb 3 22 @Virginia L 65 - 77 14% 
 Sat, Feb 7 28 SMU L 74 - 78 34% 
 Tue, Feb 10 6 Duke L 67 - 78 16% 
 Sat, Feb 14 26 @North Carolina L 67 - 78 16% 
 Sat, Feb 21 59 Notre Dame W 68 - 67 54% 
 Wed, Feb 25 79 @Stanford L 70 - 73 37% 
 Sat, Feb 28 84 @California L 70 - 73 40% 
 Wed, Mar 4 111 Florida St. W 80 - 74 70% 
 Sat, Mar 7 69 @Syracuse L 69 - 73 35% 
Totals 13 - 18 6 - 12 +7 +4 B C C+ +3 B- A- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.4 2.3 1.2 0.1 3.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 2.8 0.3 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.9 1.7 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 3.6 4.1 0.4 8.3 11th
12th 0.0 1.7 6.0 1.6 0.1 9.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 5.1 4.4 0.4 0.0 10.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 3.4 6.5 1.4 0.0 11.5 14th
15th 0.2 2.4 6.4 3.1 0.2 12.2 15th
16th 0.1 1.7 5.2 4.2 0.5 0.0 11.7 16th
17th 0.1 1.2 3.6 3.4 0.7 0.0 9.0 17th
18th 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 5.0 18th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.1 7.1 11.7 15.5 17.1 16.4 12.1 8.1 4.3 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 25.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 6.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.3% 78.3% 6.7% 71.7% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 76.8%
12-6 0.8% 53.8% 2.6% 51.3% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 52.6%
11-7 2.3% 28.4% 1.3% 27.1% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.6 27.5%
10-8 4.3% 11.4% 0.2% 11.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 3.9 11.2%
9-9 8.1% 2.2% 0.2% 1.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.9 1.9%
8-10 12.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1 0.2%
7-11 16.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 16.4 0.0%
6-12 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 17.1
5-13 15.5% 15.5
4-14 11.7% 11.7
3-15 7.1% 7.1
2-16 3.1% 3.1
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.1% 0.1% 1.9% 10.1 97.9 1.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%