Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#30
Expected Predictive Rating+16.1#25
Pace69.5#166
Improvement-3.2#335

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#27
First Shot+10.0#7
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#309
Layup/Dunks+4.1#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#119
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#62
Freethrows+0.9#119
Improvement-1.0#256

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#43
First Shot+7.2#13
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#301
Layups/Dunks-0.4#183
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#305
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#19
Freethrows+3.9#7
Improvement-2.2#328
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.7% 2.9% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 12.2% 13.1% 3.4%
Top 6 Seed 29.0% 30.5% 12.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.4% 82.7% 68.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.6% 80.9% 66.7%
Average Seed 7.3 7.2 8.4
.500 or above 99.8% 99.8% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 95.8% 85.3%
Conference Champion 6.4% 6.9% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four7.0% 6.7% 10.1%
First Round78.0% 79.4% 63.2%
Second Round47.9% 49.2% 34.0%
Sweet Sixteen19.0% 19.8% 10.7%
Elite Eight7.9% 8.2% 3.9%
Final Four2.9% 3.0% 1.2%
Championship Game1.1% 1.2% 0.3%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: California (Home) - 91.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 6
Quad 26 - 211 - 9
Quad 38 - 119 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 214   Radford W 96-56 95%     1 - 0 +34.3 +18.5 +15.4
  Nov 08, 2024 133   Murray St. W 83-68 91%     2 - 0 +13.6 +10.3 +3.5
  Nov 11, 2024 229   Gardner-Webb W 83-64 96%     3 - 0 +12.4 +2.4 +9.1
  Nov 15, 2024 39   West Virginia W 86-62 67%     4 - 0 +32.7 +15.6 +16.2
  Nov 18, 2024 344   VMI W 93-48 99%     5 - 0 +30.4 +14.6 +16.7
  Nov 22, 2024 56   LSU W 74-63 65%     6 - 0 +20.4 +9.3 +11.5
  Nov 24, 2024 34   Wisconsin L 75-81 54%     6 - 1 +6.3 +7.8 -1.6
  Nov 29, 2024 29   @ Ohio St. W 91-90 OT 38%     7 - 1 +17.3 +18.7 -1.5
  Dec 04, 2024 24   @ Mississippi St. L 57-90 34%     7 - 2 -15.6 -6.3 -10.5
  Dec 07, 2024 138   @ Virginia Tech W 64-59 80%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +9.3 -1.3 +11.0
  Dec 11, 2024 230   Eastern Kentucky W 96-56 96%     9 - 2 +33.4 +17.3 +15.9
  Dec 21, 2024 140   Sam Houston St. W 110-78 91%     10 - 2 +30.1 +29.6 -0.7
  Jan 01, 2025 128   California W 84-70 91%    
  Jan 04, 2025 94   Stanford W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 07, 2025 2   @ Duke L 66-77 14%    
  Jan 11, 2025 45   Louisville W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 15, 2025 70   @ Florida St. W 78-76 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 37   Clemson W 74-70 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 100   @ Syracuse W 80-75 70%    
  Jan 28, 2025 22   North Carolina W 82-80 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 89   @ Wake Forest W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 03, 2025 92   Virginia W 68-57 84%    
  Feb 08, 2025 22   @ North Carolina L 79-83 35%    
  Feb 11, 2025 41   @ SMU L 78-79 45%    
  Feb 15, 2025 104   Miami (FL) W 82-70 85%    
  Feb 18, 2025 100   Syracuse W 83-72 85%    
  Feb 22, 2025 83   @ Notre Dame W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 25, 2025 112   Georgia Tech W 81-68 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 45   @ Louisville L 76-77 47%    
  Mar 05, 2025 79   @ North Carolina St. W 73-70 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 167   Boston College W 82-65 94%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.1 6.4 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 6.0 7.4 4.4 1.1 0.1 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.4 6.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 18.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 5.6 6.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.0 5.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.2 8.9 12.3 15.2 16.4 14.9 11.1 6.8 3.1 1.0 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 91.7% 0.9    0.7 0.2
18-2 65.4% 2.0    1.2 0.8 0.0 0.0
17-3 31.1% 2.1    0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0
16-4 9.7% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 2.9 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.0% 100.0% 29.3% 70.7% 2.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.1% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 3.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.8% 99.9% 19.4% 80.5% 4.2 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 11.1% 99.6% 16.2% 83.4% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.8 2.7 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 14.9% 98.0% 12.0% 86.0% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.4 3.7 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.3 97.8%
14-6 16.4% 94.5% 8.3% 86.3% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.3 4.1 3.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.9 94.0%
13-7 15.2% 85.9% 5.5% 80.5% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.8 3.9 3.3 1.1 0.0 2.1 85.1%
12-8 12.3% 72.6% 3.8% 68.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.3 3.2 1.9 0.0 3.4 71.5%
11-9 8.9% 55.6% 2.3% 53.3% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.0 0.0 3.9 54.5%
10-10 5.2% 37.7% 1.6% 36.1% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.0 3.2 36.7%
9-11 2.9% 14.9% 0.6% 14.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.5 14.4%
8-12 1.4% 4.1% 0.3% 3.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 3.8%
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 81.4% 8.9% 72.5% 7.3 0.8 1.9 3.8 5.7 7.5 9.3 10.6 11.5 12.3 11.2 6.7 0.2 18.6 79.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 63.6 31.8 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.7 45.5 36.4 18.2