Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#47
Expected Predictive Rating+10.6#54
Pace66.9#221
Improvement-8.5#364

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#27
First Shot+10.2#5
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#315
Layup/Dunks+3.9#52
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#113
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#76
Freethrows+1.7#84
Improvement-2.1#299

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#93
First Shot+5.5#35
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#337
Layups/Dunks-0.2#171
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#11
Freethrows+2.7#31
Improvement-6.4#364
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.6% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.9% 52.6% 29.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.7% 51.4% 28.3%
Average Seed 10.2 9.8 10.5
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 75.7% 92.0% 68.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four18.5% 19.9% 17.8%
First Round27.5% 43.1% 20.2%
Second Round11.0% 18.1% 7.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 4.7% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.7% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina (Away) - 32.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 7
Quad 25 - 38 - 11
Quad 35 - 213 - 12
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 204   Radford W 96-56 92%     1 - 0 +35.4 +17.6 +17.4
  Nov 08, 2024 171   Murray St. W 83-68 89%     2 - 0 +12.3 +9.0 +3.4
  Nov 11, 2024 236   Gardner-Webb W 83-64 94%     3 - 0 +12.1 +2.9 +8.3
  Nov 15, 2024 39   West Virginia W 86-62 56%     4 - 0 +33.4 +17.1 +15.4
  Nov 18, 2024 304   VMI W 93-48 97%     5 - 0 +34.5 +17.0 +18.4
  Nov 22, 2024 71   LSU W 74-63 62%     6 - 0 +18.8 +8.9 +10.3
  Nov 24, 2024 17   Wisconsin L 75-81 29%     6 - 1 +10.6 +9.7 +0.7
  Nov 29, 2024 25   @ Ohio St. W 91-90 OT 27%     7 - 1 +18.1 +20.1 -2.0
  Dec 04, 2024 35   @ Mississippi St. L 57-90 32%     7 - 2 -17.3 -7.3 -11.2
  Dec 07, 2024 118   @ Virginia Tech W 64-59 71%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +10.1 -2.6 +13.1
  Dec 11, 2024 231   Eastern Kentucky W 96-56 94%     9 - 2 +33.6 +17.1 +16.4
  Dec 21, 2024 181   Sam Houston St. W 110-78 90%     10 - 2 +28.4 +29.8 -2.6
  Jan 01, 2025 116   California W 86-74 84%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +12.4 +16.6 -3.5
  Jan 04, 2025 78   Stanford W 83-68 72%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +19.9 +16.2 +4.5
  Jan 07, 2025 2   @ Duke L 47-76 9%     12 - 3 3 - 1 -3.5 -9.2 +3.4
  Jan 11, 2025 27   Louisville L 78-82 46%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +7.9 +10.8 -3.0
  Jan 15, 2025 82   @ Florida St. L 70-82 54%     12 - 5 3 - 3 -2.2 -4.5 +3.5
  Jan 18, 2025 32   Clemson L 75-78 OT 48%     12 - 6 3 - 4 +8.4 +16.6 -8.6
  Jan 25, 2025 104   @ Syracuse W 77-73 65%     13 - 6 4 - 4 +10.9 +14.0 -2.8
  Jan 28, 2025 36   North Carolina W 73-65 52%     14 - 6 5 - 4 +18.2 +9.3 +9.4
  Feb 01, 2025 58   @ Wake Forest L 74-76 45%     14 - 7 5 - 5 +10.2 +15.8 -5.8
  Feb 03, 2025 97   Virginia L 57-73 79%     14 - 8 5 - 6 -13.6 -2.9 -13.8
  Feb 08, 2025 36   @ North Carolina L 76-80 32%    
  Feb 11, 2025 42   @ SMU L 76-79 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 169   Miami (FL) W 85-72 91%    
  Feb 18, 2025 104   Syracuse W 80-71 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 83   @ Notre Dame W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 25, 2025 99   Georgia Tech W 79-71 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 27   @ Louisville L 73-79 27%    
  Mar 05, 2025 91   @ North Carolina St. W 71-69 56%    
  Mar 08, 2025 176   Boston College W 82-68 91%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.6 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.7 2.8 0.2 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 7.5 7.2 0.9 0.0 16.4 6th
7th 0.4 6.8 11.5 3.4 0.1 22.2 7th
8th 0.1 4.4 13.7 6.3 0.3 24.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 7.3 4.3 0.3 12.8 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 3.7 0.5 6.2 10th
11th 0.2 2.2 0.6 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.4 0.9 0.1 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.1 0.1 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.2 1.3 6.4 16.5 26.1 26.6 16.2 5.8 1.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.0% 94.7% 4.2% 90.5% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 94.5%
13-7 5.8% 87.3% 4.8% 82.5% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.7 86.6%
12-8 16.2% 64.2% 3.2% 61.0% 10.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.0 3.8 0.1 5.8 63.0%
11-9 26.6% 43.1% 1.6% 41.5% 10.5 0.1 1.0 3.4 6.8 0.2 15.2 42.2%
10-10 26.1% 28.0% 1.5% 26.5% 10.8 0.1 0.3 1.3 5.3 0.4 18.8 26.9%
9-11 16.5% 9.8% 1.1% 8.7% 11.0 0.2 1.2 0.2 14.8 8.8%
8-12 6.4% 1.2% 0.2% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.3 1.1%
7-13 1.3% 1.3
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 36.9% 1.9% 35.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 2.1 4.6 10.3 17.8 0.8 63.2 35.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 97.7% 7.2 4.5 9.1 13.6 27.3 27.3 11.4 2.3 2.3