Pittsburgh
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.2 98
Results Rating +2.8 120
Pace 62.1 341
Improvement -0.9 218

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 102 C+ B- C D+ B-
Defense C+ 109 C B+ C C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 158 B- 61% 101 +1.5 119
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 265 C 39% 150 -1.4 256
Three Pointers 44% 116 C 34% 175 +1.8 124
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 104 C+ +1.3 124
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.06 116
Second Chance B 35.7% 43 C- 1.00 218 B- 0.36 86
Turnovers C 16.5% 161
Freethrows C- 0.29 218 D- 67% 339 D+ 0.20 275
Total Offense C+ +2.9 102

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 55% 75 B+ 7.5% 30
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 225 C+ 4.3% 127
Three Pointers D 78% 299 C- 1.1% 255
Total C+ 58% 127 B+ 4.1% 36

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 170 C+ 56% 137 -0.3 162
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 197 C 38% 157 -0.3 161
Three Pointers 41% 175 C 34% 186 +0.0 181
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 191 C+ -0.8 149
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 152
Second Chance B+ 25.8% 33 B+ 0.91 32 B+ 0.23 23
Turnovers C 17.0% 166
Freethrows B- 0.28 93 D- 76% 329 C+ 0.21 136
Total Defense C+ +2.3 109

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 79 C+ 11.8% 137
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 124 C+ 5.6% 121
Three Pointers D 88% 304 B 1.6% 58
Total C+ 54% 149 C+ 6.4% 119

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 298 18.0 285
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 101 0.16 141
Improvement -1.4 #258 +0.5 #157

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 111 99 84
Results Rating Rank 156 118 98
Conference Record 3 - 15 4 - 14 6 - 12
Conference Finish 17 15 13
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.7 13.0 15.5
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 9% 1% 12%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 30.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 61 - 12
Quad 23 - 53 - 16
Quad 33 - 37 - 19
Quad 45 - 112 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 198 Youngstown St. W 74 - 59 83% +3  61% 1 - 0 B +10 C +1 D A+ F A +10 C+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 7 262 Longwood W 78 - 60 90% +5  77% 2 - 0 B +9 C- -1 C C+ D+ A +10 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 248 Eastern Michigan W 78 - 66 88% +11  91% 3 - 0 C+ +4 C +2 C+ C+ A B- +3 A B D-
 Thu, Nov 13 55 @West Virginia L 49 - 71 23% -9  21% 3 - 1 D -9 F -11 C+ F C C -1 B A- F
 Mon, Nov 17 330 Bucknell W 84 - 50 95% +17  86% 4 - 1 A +20 A- +10 A A- D- A+ +12 A+ A+ A
 Thu, Nov 20 51 Central Florida L 67 - 77 30% -5  14% 4 - 2 C +1 C+ +2 D B D+ C- -3 B F B
 Sun, Nov 23 192 Quinnipiac L 75 - 83 83% -5  9% 4 - 3 D- -13 C+ +2 B+ B F F -15 F C- A
 Fri, Nov 28 36 Ohio St. W 67 - 66 28% +4  73% 5 - 3 B+ +12 C- -1 C F A+ A+ +13 A+ A A
 Tue, Dec 2 34 Texas A&M L 73 - 81 27% -4  6% 5 - 4 C+ +3 B+ +8 C+ A+ B+ D -5 B D C-
 Sun, Dec 7 106 Hofstra L 73 - 80 65% -7  4% 5 - 5 D+ -6 B+ +8 A+ D- D+ F -14 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 35 @Villanova L 61 - 79 13% -6  14% 5 - 6 C -1 B +6 D- A+ C F -10 D- B+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 359 Binghamton W 103 - 63 98% +21  98% 6 - 6 A +21 A+ +15 A+ F+ F+ B +5 F A- A+
 Sun, Dec 21 115 Penn St. W 80 - 46 58% +16  99% 7 - 6 A+ +37 A- +10 A- C- A+ A+ +30 A+ A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 39 @Miami (FL) L 69 - 76 15% +1  51% 7 - 7 0 - 1 B +9 B- +5 D+ A- A+ B +4 A+ D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 41 Clemson L 68 - 73 32% -2  21% 7 - 8 0 - 2 B- +5 C+ +2 C+ B- B B- +2 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 73 Syracuse L 72 - 83 52% -11  3% 7 - 9 0 - 3 D+ -6 C+ +2 C+ B- C+ F+ -9 F D+ C+
 Wed, Jan 14 140 @Georgia Tech W 89 - 66 54% +15  95% 8 - 9 1 - 3 A+ +27 A+ +20 A+ A+ B+ A- +8 B+ B- A-
 Sat, Jan 17 11 Louisville L 59 - 100 15% -27  0% 8 - 10 1 - 4 F -25 D -6 C- C+ B F -22 F F F+
 Wed, Jan 21 139 @Boston College L 62 - 65 54% -1  32% 8 - 11 1 - 5 C +1 C- -2 D- A A B- +3 D+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 24 24 North Carolina St. L 72 - 81 23% +1  56% 8 - 12 1 - 6 C+ +4 C+ +4 F+ A+ C C +0 B+ A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 65 Wake Forest W 80 - 76 OT 49% -3  12% 9 - 12 2 - 6 B +10 B- +4 D A A+ B+ +5 B A A-
 Sat, Jan 31 41 @Clemson L 52 - 63 16% -10  2% 9 - 13 2 - 7 B- +5 C- -1 C- B+ F B- +3 A- F A
 Tue, Feb 3 22 @Virginia L 47 - 67 9% -10  11% 9 - 14 2 - 8 C +0 F -11 C D+ F A- +8 B- A- C+
 Sat, Feb 7 31 SMU L 67 - 86 26% -7  26% 9 - 15 2 - 9 D+ -7 D+ -2 F+ B- C D -6 F A C-
 Tue, Feb 10 2 Duke L 54 - 70 7% -5  13% 9 - 16 2 - 10 B- +6 D+ -2 B C- C B+ +6 D+ B+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 27 @North Carolina L 65 - 79 12% -13  0% 9 - 17 2 - 11 C+ +4 C+ +2 A+ D+ F+ C+ +1 C- A+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 86 Notre Dame W 73 - 68 56% +3  76% 10 - 17 3 - 11 B +9 B+ +7 A- B- C- B- +2 B- A D-
 Wed, Feb 25 77 @Stanford L 68 - 73 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 70 @California L 68 - 74 28%
 Wed, Mar 4 80 Florida St. W 76 - 75 52%
 Sat, Mar 7 73 @Syracuse L 69 - 75 30%
Totals 11 - 20 4 - 14 +5 C+ +3 B- C+ B- C+ +2 C D- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- C C C+ 39% 30% 44% B- C+ B C- B- C C- D- D+ C+ C+ C C C+ 39% 20% 41% C C B+ B+ B+ C B- D- C+
1.13 61% 39% 34% +1 +1 1.06 36% 1.0 .36 17% .29 67% .20 1.05 56% 38% 34% -1 0 1.01 26% 0.9 .23 17% .28 76% .22
Nov
3		 Youngstown St. C C- F C+ D- 45% 21% 33% C+ D A+ B- A+ F A+ A- A+ A F A+ B- B- 29% 8% 63% C C+ A A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+
1.13 58% 22% 36% -3 0 0.98 52% 1.1 .55 27% .57 81% .46 0.90 71% 0% 32% -1 +1 1.02 22% 0.5 .11 18% .17 56% .09
Nov
7		 Longwood C- A+ F A C+ 20% 18% 61% F+ C B- C- C+ D+ A+ C- A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ 53% 16% 32% F A+ A A+ A+ F A+ F B+
1.11 78% 13% 41% +6 -1 1.11 32% 0.9 .29 20% .62 69% .43 0.86 40% 22% 22% -18 +2 0.70 24% 0.7 .16 10% .22 86% .19
Nov
10		 Eastern Michigan C D- A+ F C+ 48% 22% 30% C+ C+ D+ A C+ A B+ F D B- A B- A- A 45% 28% 26% D+ A C+ A B D- F F F
1.12 50% 75% 25% 0 0 1.04 26% 1.2 .31 12% .37 52% .20 0.95 46% 33% 29% -9 0 0.83 26% 0.8 .21 14% .35 86% .30
Nov
13		 West Virginia F B+ B- F B- 33% 29% 38% D C+ D- F F C F F+ F C C+ C+ B B 40% 17% 43% C B A C A- F D F F+
0.78 63% 36% 28% -3 -1 0.94 19% 0.0 .00 19% .12 67% .08 1.13 58% 38% 30% -3 +1 0.98 24% 1.1 .27 10% .37 76% .28
Nov
17		 Bucknell A- D- A+ A+ A+ 35% 20% 45% C A A C A- D- D- F F A+ A+ A+ A A+ 37% 17% 46% C A+ C- A+ A+ A F D+ F
1.30 53% 60% 50% +13 0 1.29 44% 1.1 .47 20% .27 64% .17 0.77 33% 14% 26% -18 0 0.66 27% 0.5 .14 25% .47 78% .37
Nov
20		 Central Florida C+ C F F+ D- 36% 9% 56% A- D A+ D- B D+ A+ A+ A+ C- D+ C- A+ B+ 47% 21% 32% D+ B F F F B B+ A+ A+
1.07 56% 25% 28% -7 +1 0.91 36% 0.9 .33 19% .41 86% .35 1.23 64% 40% 27% 0 +1 1.02 50% 1.5 .75 18% .23 58% .14
Nov
23		 Quinnipiac C+ A+ F C- B 39% 9% 52% B B+ A+ D- B F A F B- F C F F F 37% 26% 37% C+ F C+ D- C- A F B- F
1.10 78% 0% 33% +4 +2 1.13 45% 0.9 .39 22% .37 60% .22 1.21 56% 55% 63% +19 -1 1.40 30% 1.1 .35 22% .45 67% .30
Nov
28		 Ohio St. C- A- F C- C 36% 35% 29% C- C B+ F F A+ C- F D- A+ C B+ A A+ 36% 17% 47% D- A+ A B- A A A- F B-
1.03 65% 26% 31% -3 -2 0.93 36% 0.4 .13 8% .27 63% .17 1.01 65% 38% 27% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.0 .28 20% .29 87% .25
Dec
2		 Texas A&M B+ B+ D D+ C+ 33% 18% 49% C+ C+ B+ A+ A+ B+ F F F D C+ F+ B B+ 51% 9% 40% D+ B F C+ D C- F+ F F
1.13 65% 33% 32% 0 0 1.02 35% 1.3 .47 17% .20 64% .13 1.25 58% 50% 32% 0 +2 1.06 41% 0.9 .38 14% .39 91% .36
Dec
7		 Hofstra B+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 23% 51% C- A+ C F D- D+ A+ A+ A+ F D F F F 47% 17% 36% F F B- A+ A+ F D C- D
1.19 45% 60% 45% +11 -1 1.21 31% 0.8 .23 16% .43 86% .37 1.30 64% 50% 47% +12 +1 1.28 31% 0.8 .23 11% .33 78% .26
Dec
13		 Villanova B C- B F F 43% 15% 43% A- D- A+ B+ A+ C B- D+ C+ F C- A+ F D 45% 9% 45% F D- A+ D- B+ F F D F
1.05 55% 43% 20% -10 +1 0.85 44% 1.1 .47 21% .26 67% .17 1.36 65% 25% 45% +9 +2 1.25 26% 1.1 .30 5% .44 75% .33
Dec
17		 Binghamton A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 10% 48% B- A+ D F F+ F+ A- F C+ B A+ F F F 43% 30% 27% B- F C A+ A- A+ F D+ F
1.44 67% 60% 67% +29 +2 1.64 28% 0.9 .24 15% .40 63% .25 0.88 38% 55% 60% +7 -1 1.14 19% 0.4 .08 31% .54 78% .42
Dec
21		 Penn St. A- F A+ A+ B+ 43% 12% 45% B+ A- C+ F+ C- A+ B- F D+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ 39% 20% 41% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A A+
1.23 41% 67% 52% +8 +1 1.22 30% 1.1 .33 14% .25 57% .14 0.71 53% 40% 20% -10 0 0.82 18% 0.0 .00 18% .17 67% .11
Dec
30		 Miami (FL) B- A- B+ F D+ 32% 26% 42% C- D+ C- A+ A- A+ B F D+ B C- D- A+ A+ 38% 24% 38% A A+ D- C+ D+ C- F F F
1.04 65% 43% 23% -4 -1 0.92 22% 1.6 .36 11% .29 53% .15 1.15 65% 45% 12% -8 -1 0.84 43% 1.1 .46 15% .46 77% .36
Jan
3		 Clemson C+ C+ F+ C- C+ 44% 23% 33% B C+ C- A+ B- B A+ D+ A B- F F+ D+ F+ 39% 15% 46% C+ D- A+ C+ A+ A+ F C+ F
1.01 57% 27% 31% -4 0 0.94 20% 1.3 .27 16% .39 73% .28 1.09 75% 50% 37% +10 +1 1.24 16% 1.0 .16 21% .47 72% .34
Jan
10		 Syracuse C+ B- A+ F B- 33% 23% 44% D+ C+ A- D- B- C+ F A+ C- F+ F+ C+ F F 44% 18% 38% C- F B+ F D+ C+ C+ F D-
1.08 59% 67% 17% -4 -1 0.92 39% 1.0 .39 18% .20 100% .20 1.25 70% 38% 53% +16 +1 1.36 27% 1.3 .36 17% .32 83% .27
Jan
14		 Georgia Tech A+ B A A+ A+ 37% 20% 43% B- A+ B A+ A+ B+ F A+ D A- A- A+ C A 49% 16% 35% F B+ F+ A+ B- A- C+ B B-
1.31 60% 45% 43% +8 0 1.19 34% 1.5 .50 13% .20 83% .17 0.97 50% 25% 35% -5 +1 0.94 38% 0.9 .32 22% .28 67% .19
Jan
17		 Louisville D C- D F+ D+ 35% 20% 45% B+ C- D+ A- C+ B C+ F C- F F+ F F F 42% 8% 51% C F A F F F+ B+ F B-
0.90 53% 30% 27% -8 0 0.86 22% 1.1 .24 15% .29 63% .18 1.53 73% 75% 48% +20 +2 1.45 27% 1.8 .50 12% .26 87% .23
Jan
21		 Boston College C- F+ F D+ F+ 45% 16% 39% B+ D- B+ A A A C F F B- B+ F C D 25% 31% 44% A D+ A+ F B C- B+ B B+
0.97 48% 13% 30% -11 +1 0.82 33% 1.1 .38 11% .30 41% .12 1.02 50% 53% 33% +2 -2 1.02 19% 1.3 .25 14% .24 62% .15
Jan
24		 North Carolina St. C+ F F D+ F 37% 20% 43% C- F+ A+ C- A+ C A+ F C C C- A C- B+ 42% 21% 37% B- B+ A A+ A+ C- F D- F
1.06 42% 20% 32% -11 0 0.80 53% 0.9 .49 21% .46 44% .20 1.19 64% 27% 37% +2 0 1.06 24% 1.0 .24 12% .45 81% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Wake Forest B- F+ D+ D- D- 36% 10% 53% B D B+ A+ A A+ A D- B+ B+ D- D- A+ B 34% 26% 40% A- B A- A A A- C D+ C-
1.11 48% 33% 29% -8 +1 0.88 36% 1.3 .45 11% .39 68% .27 1.06 67% 50% 24% 0 -1 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 18% .32 79% .25
Jan
31		 Clemson C- A+ D- F D+ 36% 16% 48% B+ C- A+ F B+ F D+ F D- B- B+ A+ C- A 41% 5% 54% D- A- A F F A F F F
0.92 69% 29% 19% -8 0 0.86 44% 0.7 .31 25% .26 64% .17 1.12 53% 0% 35% -3 +2 1.00 23% 2.2 .50 20% .44 85% .37
Feb
3		 Virginia F A F F C- 35% 23% 43% B C C- F+ D+ F C F D- A- B- A+ D B- 38% 8% 54% D+ B- B+ B A- C+ A+ A+ A+
0.78 64% 22% 24% -8 0 0.85 24% 0.8 .18 28% .28 58% .16 1.11 56% 25% 38% +2 +2 1.08 36% 1.0 .36 17% .18 44% .08
Feb
7		 SMU D+ C D- F F 28% 20% 52% C+ F+ B+ D+ B- C A A A+ D F D+ F F 38% 27% 35% C+ F A C+ A C- C C C
1.01 57% 30% 23% -10 -1 0.80 37% 0.9 .32 18% .35 79% .28 1.30 83% 46% 47% +19 -1 1.38 29% 1.0 .29 14% .30 76% .23
Feb
10		 Duke D+ A+ F F+ B 24% 16% 59% B- B D+ C- C- C D F F B+ F C D+ D- 34% 16% 50% A D+ A- C B+ A A+ A+ A+
0.88 75% 25% 28% -4 0 0.94 19% 0.7 .14 20% .16 38% .06 1.14 87% 43% 36% +12 0 1.27 33% 1.3 .42 21% .17 63% .10
Feb
14		 North Carolina C+ B C+ A+ A 49% 16% 35% A+ A+ D+ D+ D+ F+ D- B D+ C+ F+ B- D- D+ 38% 20% 42% C+ C- A+ A+ A+ F A F C+
0.99 58% 38% 41% +4 +1 1.12 22% 0.8 .19 18% .15 75% .11 1.21 71% 36% 39% +8 0 1.18 19% 0.7 .13 6% .28 82% .23
Feb
21		 Notre Dame B+ B+ F A+ A- 33% 17% 50% B- A- A- D B- C- A+ F A+ B- F C- A B+ 32% 10% 58% F+ B- D A+ A D- B+ A+ A+
1.16 64% 14% 43% +5 0 1.12 31% 0.9 .28 16% .51 67% .34 1.08 75% 40% 28% 0 +1 1.04 38% 0.6 .21 13% .26 50% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.4 0.4 11th
12th 0.4 1.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.2 4.6 0.4 5.1 13th
14th 4.5 5.5 0.0 9.9 14th
15th 0.9 17.7 22.7 1.2 42.5 15th
16th 11.5 19.8 3.0 34.3 16th
17th 5.1 0.7 0.0 5.8 17th
18th 0.6 0.0 0.6 18th
Total 18.1 38.2 30.3 11.6 1.8 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 1.8% 1.8
6-12 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 11.6
5-13 30.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 30.3
4-14 38.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 38.2
3-15 18.1% 18.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 18.1%