SMU
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#42
Expected Predictive Rating+12.0#46
Pace73.1#61
Improvement+0.7#156

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#36
First Shot+4.7#57
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#54
Layup/Dunks+4.0#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
Freethrows+3.1#30
Improvement-1.7#290

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#57
First Shot+4.0#61
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#110
Layups/Dunks+5.0#39
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#212
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#216
Freethrows-0.5#220
Improvement+2.4#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.3% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.5% 42.3% 29.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 36.0% 39.7% 26.9%
Average Seed 10.0 9.9 10.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 99.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four18.4% 19.2% 16.3%
First Round29.8% 33.1% 21.6%
Second Round12.5% 14.4% 7.8%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 4.0% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.3% 0.8%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Away) - 71.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 27 - 48 - 9
Quad 310 - 118 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 247   Tarleton St. W 96-62 95%     1 - 0 +26.4 +18.8 +5.8
  Nov 07, 2024 340   Florida A&M W 102-73 98%     2 - 0 +14.9 +12.0 -0.2
  Nov 11, 2024 159   UNC Greensboro W 81-68 90%     3 - 0 +10.9 +3.3 +7.0
  Nov 15, 2024 75   @ Butler L 70-81 56%     3 - 1 -1.0 +0.8 -1.8
  Nov 18, 2024 348   Prairie View W 110-69 98%     4 - 1 +26.1 +14.8 +5.8
  Nov 22, 2024 35   Mississippi St. L 79-84 54%     4 - 2 +5.7 +9.7 -4.0
  Nov 26, 2024 161   California Baptist W 79-77 85%     5 - 2 +2.3 +12.5 -10.1
  Nov 27, 2024 103   Washington St. W 77-60 75%     6 - 2 +21.5 +14.4 +9.0
  Dec 03, 2024 308   Alabama St. W 101-72 97%     7 - 2 +18.0 +18.6 -1.7
  Dec 07, 2024 97   Virginia W 63-51 81%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +14.4 -1.1 +16.9
  Dec 14, 2024 71   LSU W 74-64 65%     9 - 2 +17.8 +3.3 +14.1
  Dec 21, 2024 176   @ Boston College W 103-77 83%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +27.7 +27.2 -0.1
  Dec 29, 2024 190   Longwood W 98-82 92%     11 - 2 +12.1 +13.5 -2.7
  Jan 04, 2025 2   Duke L 62-89 20%     11 - 3 2 - 1 -6.4 +3.9 -12.4
  Jan 07, 2025 36   @ North Carolina L 67-82 37%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +0.2 -3.4 +4.6
  Jan 11, 2025 99   Georgia Tech W 93-71 81%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +24.4 +16.0 +6.8
  Jan 15, 2025 97   @ Virginia W 54-52 66%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +9.4 -6.8 +16.5
  Jan 18, 2025 169   @ Miami (FL) W 117-74 81%     14 - 4 5 - 2 +45.3 +40.6 +4.8
  Jan 21, 2025 27   Louisville L 73-98 49%     14 - 5 5 - 3 -13.1 +8.1 -22.2
  Jan 25, 2025 91   @ North Carolina St. W 63-57 62%     15 - 5 6 - 3 +14.6 -0.4 +15.4
  Jan 29, 2025 116   California W 76-65 85%     16 - 5 7 - 3 +11.4 -0.2 +11.4
  Feb 01, 2025 78   Stanford W 85-61 74%     17 - 5 8 - 3 +28.9 +14.6 +14.7
  Feb 05, 2025 118   @ Virginia Tech W 78-71 71%    
  Feb 11, 2025 47   Pittsburgh W 79-76 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 58   Wake Forest W 75-71 67%    
  Feb 19, 2025 83   @ Notre Dame W 75-73 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 32   Clemson W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 26, 2025 116   @ California W 81-75 70%    
  Mar 01, 2025 78   @ Stanford W 77-75 54%    
  Mar 04, 2025 104   Syracuse W 83-73 83%    
  Mar 08, 2025 82   @ Florida St. W 79-77 55%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 3.6 2.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.9 7.9 5.0 0.5 17.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 10.5 17.4 9.7 1.8 40.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 5.8 9.6 3.1 0.1 19.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 4.3 1.3 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.6 2.4 1.1 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.1 12.7 21.7 24.6 19.5 10.4 2.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.0%
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 2.6% 92.2% 10.5% 81.6% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 91.3%
16-4 10.4% 75.7% 7.0% 68.8% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.4 1.6 0.0 2.5 73.9%
15-5 19.5% 56.3% 5.7% 50.6% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.7 4.6 0.2 8.5 53.6%
14-6 24.6% 38.8% 3.9% 34.9% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.6 5.8 0.2 15.0 36.3%
13-7 21.7% 25.9% 2.8% 23.1% 10.7 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.8 0.3 16.1 23.8%
12-8 12.7% 13.8% 1.7% 12.1% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.1 11.0 12.3%
11-9 6.1% 5.1% 0.2% 4.9% 11.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 5.8 4.9%
10-10 2.1% 3.8% 1.9% 1.9% 11.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 1.9%
9-11 0.3% 0.3
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 38.5% 3.9% 34.5% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.3 5.1 10.4 17.8 0.8 61.5 36.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 4.4 11.1 18.5 18.5 29.6 18.5 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 98.4% 7.1 3.2 7.9 19.0 33.3 19.0 12.7 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 89.7% 8.1 2.3 4.6 10.3 11.5 13.8 36.8 6.9 3.4