SMU
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#45
Expected Predictive Rating+10.9#51
Pace71.2#92
Improvement-2.0#273

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#30
First Shot+5.4#54
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#48
Layup/Dunks+4.3#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#167
Freethrows+3.3#29
Improvement-1.6#263

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#79
First Shot+3.2#74
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#125
Layups/Dunks+4.7#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#216
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#229
Freethrows-0.7#240
Improvement-0.5#218
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.5% 33.1% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.5% 30.3% 9.1%
Average Seed 11.0 10.8 11.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.5% 23.7% 9.0%
First Round9.5% 20.4% 4.7%
Second Round3.5% 7.5% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 2.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 26 - 56 - 10
Quad 312 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 275   Tarleton St. W 96-62 96%     1 - 0 +24.9 +18.9 +4.2
  Nov 07, 2024 326   Florida A&M W 102-73 98%     2 - 0 +16.3 +11.1 +2.2
  Nov 11, 2024 158   UNC Greensboro W 81-68 90%     3 - 0 +10.5 +3.5 +6.4
  Nov 15, 2024 72   @ Butler L 70-81 53%     3 - 1 -0.3 +0.0 -0.4
  Nov 18, 2024 360   Prairie View W 110-69 99%     4 - 1 +22.1 +13.4 +3.2
  Nov 22, 2024 30   Mississippi St. L 79-84 50%     4 - 2 +6.5 +9.9 -3.3
  Nov 26, 2024 163   California Baptist W 79-77 86%     5 - 2 +1.9 +14.1 -12.0
  Nov 27, 2024 120   Washington St. W 77-60 80%     6 - 2 +19.6 +11.9 +9.6
  Dec 03, 2024 288   Alabama St. W 101-72 97%     7 - 2 +18.8 +20.2 -2.5
  Dec 07, 2024 99   Virginia W 63-51 82%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +13.8 -3.0 +18.1
  Dec 14, 2024 86   LSU W 74-64 69%     9 - 2 +16.4 +3.1 +12.9
  Dec 21, 2024 168   @ Boston College W 103-77 81%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +28.2 +29.3 -1.6
  Dec 29, 2024 227   Longwood W 98-82 94%     11 - 2 +9.8 +12.6 -4.2
  Jan 04, 2025 1   Duke L 62-89 12%     11 - 3 2 - 1 -3.0 +3.8 -8.8
  Jan 07, 2025 34   @ North Carolina L 67-82 31%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +1.4 -4.2 +6.6
  Jan 11, 2025 94   Georgia Tech W 93-71 80%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +24.5 +16.9 +6.1
  Jan 15, 2025 99   @ Virginia W 54-52 65%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +9.3 -8.4 +18.0
  Jan 18, 2025 173   @ Miami (FL) W 117-74 81%     14 - 4 5 - 2 +45.0 +40.8 +4.4
  Jan 21, 2025 23   Louisville L 73-98 43%     14 - 5 5 - 3 -11.8 +9.7 -22.6
  Jan 25, 2025 104   @ North Carolina St. W 63-57 68%     15 - 5 6 - 3 +12.7 -0.8 +14.0
  Jan 29, 2025 106   California W 76-65 83%     16 - 5 7 - 3 +12.1 +0.7 +11.2
  Feb 01, 2025 81   Stanford W 85-61 76%     17 - 5 8 - 3 +28.1 +15.4 +12.9
  Feb 05, 2025 135   @ Virginia Tech W 81-75 75%     18 - 5 9 - 3 +10.2 +19.9 -9.0
  Feb 11, 2025 62   Pittsburgh W 83-63 68%     19 - 5 10 - 3 +26.6 +15.3 +12.1
  Feb 15, 2025 63   Wake Forest L 66-77 68%     19 - 6 10 - 4 -4.5 +3.7 -9.0
  Feb 19, 2025 95   @ Notre Dame W 97-73 63%     20 - 6 11 - 4 +32.0 +25.3 +6.1
  Feb 22, 2025 21   Clemson L 69-79 41%     20 - 7 11 - 5 +3.7 +11.3 -8.9
  Feb 26, 2025 106   @ California W 81-77 68%     21 - 7 12 - 5 +10.6 +6.4 +4.1
  Mar 01, 2025 81   @ Stanford L 68-73 57%     21 - 8 12 - 6 +4.6 +9.3 -5.4
  Mar 04, 2025 102   Syracuse W 77-75 83%     22 - 8 13 - 6 +3.4 +8.8 -5.2
  Mar 08, 2025 85   @ Florida St. L 69-76 59%     22 - 9 13 - 7 +2.2 +1.7 +0.5
  Mar 12, 2025 102   Syracuse W 73-53 76%     23 - 9 +24.1 +7.0 +18.7
  Mar 13, 2025 21   Clemson L 70-75 31%    
Projected Record 23 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 16.5% 1.3% 15.3% 11.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 11.4 2.8 83.5 15.5%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.5% 1.3% 15.3% 11.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 11.4 2.8 83.5 15.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 10.0 4.8 21.6 44.8 28.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.0% 42.6% 10.8 0.1 1.5 8.5 30.1 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 18.6% 23.0% 11.1 0.1 1.2 18.0 3.8
Lose Out 69.2% 9.1% 11.3 0.1 6.4 2.6