SMU
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#41
Expected Predictive Rating+12.2#48
Pace73.3#71
Improvement+2.8#42

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#26
First Shot+5.0#55
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#37
Layup/Dunks+5.5#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#331
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#191
Freethrows+2.8#37
Improvement+0.7#121

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#82
First Shot+3.5#73
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#162
Layups/Dunks+5.2#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#105
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#242
Freethrows-1.4#280
Improvement+2.1#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.6% 2.8% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 7.7% 8.1% 2.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.9% 51.3% 33.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.1% 48.4% 31.4%
Average Seed 8.8 8.7 9.4
.500 or above 99.6% 99.7% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.1% 93.5% 88.2%
Conference Champion 5.9% 6.1% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four11.8% 11.9% 10.6%
First Round44.2% 45.5% 28.3%
Second Round22.9% 23.8% 12.8%
Sweet Sixteen7.5% 7.8% 3.5%
Elite Eight2.9% 3.0% 1.2%
Final Four1.0% 1.1% 0.2%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Longwood (Home) - 92.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 5
Quad 27 - 410 - 9
Quad 38 - 117 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 285   Tarleton St. W 96-62 96%     1 - 0 +24.3 +16.6 +5.9
  Nov 07, 2024 357   Florida A&M W 102-73 99%     2 - 0 +12.4 +13.0 -3.6
  Nov 11, 2024 161   UNC Greensboro W 81-68 91%     3 - 0 +9.9 +3.8 +5.5
  Nov 15, 2024 68   @ Butler L 70-81 52%     3 - 1 -0.1 +2.0 -2.2
  Nov 18, 2024 340   Prairie View W 110-69 98%     4 - 1 +26.7 +12.6 +8.6
  Nov 22, 2024 24   Mississippi St. L 79-84 50%     4 - 2 +6.4 +10.2 -3.8
  Nov 26, 2024 158   California Baptist W 79-77 86%     5 - 2 +2.0 +10.7 -8.5
  Nov 27, 2024 74   Washington St. W 77-60 65%     6 - 2 +24.6 +17.0 +9.5
  Dec 03, 2024 291   Alabama St. W 101-72 97%     7 - 2 +19.0 +18.0 -0.1
  Dec 07, 2024 92   Virginia W 63-51 80%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +14.6 +2.0 +13.9
  Dec 14, 2024 56   LSU W 74-64 58%     9 - 2 +19.4 +3.8 +15.3
  Dec 21, 2024 167   @ Boston College W 103-77 80%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +28.6 +28.9 -0.9
  Dec 29, 2024 173   Longwood W 84-69 92%    
  Jan 04, 2025 2   Duke L 71-78 25%    
  Jan 07, 2025 22   @ North Carolina L 82-88 29%    
  Jan 11, 2025 112   Georgia Tech W 84-73 85%    
  Jan 15, 2025 92   @ Virginia W 66-63 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 104   @ Miami (FL) W 81-77 64%    
  Jan 21, 2025 45   Louisville W 81-78 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 79   @ North Carolina St. W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 29, 2025 128   California W 87-74 87%    
  Feb 01, 2025 94   Stanford W 83-74 80%    
  Feb 05, 2025 138   @ Virginia Tech W 78-71 74%    
  Feb 11, 2025 30   Pittsburgh W 79-78 55%    
  Feb 15, 2025 89   Wake Forest W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 19, 2025 83   @ Notre Dame W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 37   Clemson W 76-74 59%    
  Feb 26, 2025 128   @ California W 84-77 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 94   @ Stanford W 80-77 61%    
  Mar 04, 2025 100   Syracuse W 86-76 81%    
  Mar 07, 2025 70   @ Florida St. W 80-79 52%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.1 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.0 6.6 3.9 0.8 0.1 18.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 2.0 6.1 6.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 17.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.7 5.6 1.9 0.1 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.3 1.7 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.6 4.6 1.8 0.1 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.6 11th
12th 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.3 9.8 12.9 15.2 15.2 13.6 10.2 6.1 2.7 0.9 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 93.3% 0.8    0.6 0.2
18-2 68.5% 1.8    1.0 0.8 0.0 0.0
17-3 31.8% 1.9    0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0
16-4 9.5% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 2.7 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 2.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.9% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 3.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.7% 99.4% 16.2% 83.2% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
17-3 6.1% 97.1% 14.1% 83.1% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 96.7%
16-4 10.2% 90.9% 10.4% 80.5% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.1 2.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 89.9%
15-5 13.6% 77.8% 7.8% 69.9% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.9 3.1 1.6 0.0 3.0 75.9%
14-6 15.2% 60.6% 5.5% 55.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.4 2.9 0.0 6.0 58.3%
13-7 15.2% 41.5% 3.2% 38.3% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 3.0 0.1 8.9 39.6%
12-8 12.9% 24.8% 2.0% 22.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.9 0.1 9.7 23.2%
11-9 9.8% 13.0% 1.1% 11.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 8.5 12.0%
10-10 6.3% 5.8% 0.6% 5.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 6.0 5.3%
9-11 3.8% 1.6% 0.4% 1.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 1.2%
8-12 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 1.9 0.1%
7-13 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 49.9% 5.4% 44.5% 8.8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.1 2.9 4.3 6.1 8.6 11.7 11.1 0.5 50.1 47.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.6 12.0 36.0 36.0 16.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.7 4.5 40.9 40.9 9.1 4.5