SMU
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.5 #28
Expected Predictive Rating +15.8 #29
Pace 71.7 #108
Improvement +1.2 #115

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #16 A B+ B C+ D+
Defense #67 B B B+ B A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #181 1.38 #13 +4.1 #55
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #88 0.90 #30 +3.6 #37
Three Pointers 37% #276 1.12 #52 -0.3 #192
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #20 +7.4 #20
Freethrows 17.2 #204 77% #57 13.1 #146
Second Chance 38.0% #24 1.04 #186 0.40 #52
Turnovers 14.8% #71
Total Offense +10.1 #16

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #341 1.16 #183 +4.4 #51
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #76 0.73 #142 -1.1 #258
Three Pointers 45% #68 0.92 #76 -0.1 #186
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #80 +3.2 #80
Freethrows 15.7 #106 69% #62 10.9 #294
Second Chance 30.0% #144 0.91 #36 0.27 #71
Turnovers 19.3% #53
Total Defense +4.4 #67

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #267 -2.1% #34
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 16.0% #11 -4.4% #100
Possession Length 15.3 #33 18.5 #337
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #26 0.13 #44
Improvement +3.0 #28 -1.8 #291

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 2.2% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 10.4% 21.5% 7.9%
Top 6 Seed 35.8% 56.3% 31.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.1% 96.5% 87.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.2% 96.1% 86.5%
Average Seed 7.1 6.1 7.3
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 87.9% 96.6% 85.9%
Conference Champion 5.2% 16.4% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.2% 1.5% 4.8%
First Round87.1% 95.9% 85.1%
Second Round53.9% 67.0% 50.9%
Sweet Sixteen18.5% 27.3% 16.5%
Elite Eight6.3% 9.7% 5.5%
Final Four2.1% 3.4% 1.8%
Championship Game0.7% 1.3% 0.5%
National Champion0.2% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: Duke (Away) - 18.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 36 - 7
Quad 27 - 213 - 10
Quad 34 - 017 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 172 Tarleton St. W 96 - 76 95%  +7  1 - 0 +16 +18 A F A+ -2 A A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 6 183 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 58 95%  +2  2 - 0 +6 -2 F F A+ +9 A- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 91 Murray St. W 102 - 91 85%  +9  3 - 0 +14 +14 A- A- B -1 C D+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 57 Butler W 87 - 85 78%  -0  4 - 0 +8 +11 A+ B+ F -3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 106 - 60 99%  +25  5 - 0 +33 +11 A+ F C +15 A A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 21 126 Arkansas St. W 100 - 69 92%  +15  6 - 0 +30 +13 A+ F A+ +13 A F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 234 Radford W 89 - 72 97%  +11  7 - 0 +10 +2 C- B+ D- +6 A+ C F
 Fri, Nov 28 55 @Mississippi St. W 87 - 81 OT 57%  -1  8 - 0 +19 +10 B- A+ B- +8 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 7 @Vanderbilt L 69 - 88 20%  -9  8 - 1 +4 +9 C A+ C -5 C- A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 40 Texas A&M W 93 - 80 OT 57%  +5  9 - 1 +26 +9 D A+ A+ +14 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 42 LSU L 77 - 89 60%  -7  9 - 2 -0 +16 A+ A C- -17 F F A
 Sun, Dec 21 261 Central Arkansas W 99 - 82 97%  +11  10 - 2 +8 +21 A+ A+ C -13 F F A+
 Sun, Dec 28 232 Cal St. Fullerton W 110 - 63 97%  +25  11 - 2 +40 +24 A+ A- A+ +12 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 3 26 North Carolina W 97 - 83 59%  +5  12 - 2 1 - 0 +26 +31 A+ C+ A+ -5 F A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 39 @Clemson L 70 - 74 44%  -7  12 - 3 1 - 1 +12 +11 C- A+ F +1 A- C C-
 Sat, Jan 10 6 @Duke L 74 - 84 19% 
 Wed, Jan 14 68 Virginia Tech W 83 - 74 79% 
 Sat, Jan 17 22 Virginia W 78 - 76 56% 
 Tue, Jan 20 62 @Wake Forest W 81 - 79 59% 
 Sat, Jan 24 111 Florida St. W 91 - 78 89% 
 Sat, Jan 31 15 @Louisville L 80 - 86 28% 
 Tue, Feb 3 34 North Carolina St. W 82 - 78 63% 
 Sat, Feb 7 82 @Pittsburgh W 78 - 74 66% 
 Tue, Feb 10 59 Notre Dame W 77 - 69 78% 
 Sat, Feb 14 69 @Syracuse W 79 - 76 61% 
 Tue, Feb 17 15 Louisville L 83 - 84 50% 
 Sat, Feb 21 151 Boston College W 82 - 65 95% 
 Wed, Feb 25 84 @California W 80 - 75 66% 
 Sat, Feb 28 79 @Stanford W 80 - 76 64% 
 Wed, Mar 4 36 Miami (FL) W 82 - 78 63% 
 Sat, Mar 7 111 @Florida St. W 88 - 81 74% 
Totals 22 - 9 11 - 7 +14 +10 A B+ B +4 B B B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.1 0.9 0.2 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.8 4.6 1.7 0.2 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.7 6.2 2.0 0.1 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 6.8 3.0 0.2 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.6 4.7 0.4 11.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.4 6.2 1.3 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.8 2.3 0.1 9.4 7th
8th 0.3 3.2 3.8 0.4 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.0 1.0 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.3 2.4 2.0 0.1 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 3.3 11th
12th 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.2 6.8 11.0 15.1 17.2 17.2 13.7 8.5 3.9 1.1 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-2 84.4% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
15-3 53.1% 2.1    0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 19.8% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.0 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 2.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.1% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 3.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.9% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 4.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.5% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.9 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.7% 99.6% 12.7% 86.9% 5.6 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.0 4.4 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 99.5%
12-6 17.2% 99.2% 7.9% 91.4% 6.6 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.8 5.1 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.1 99.1%
11-7 17.2% 97.6% 4.7% 92.9% 7.6 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.8 4.9 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.4 97.5%
10-8 15.1% 92.6% 2.7% 89.9% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.9 4.3 2.5 0.6 1.1 92.4%
9-9 11.0% 79.5% 1.5% 78.1% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.8 3.0 0.9 0.0 2.3 79.2%
8-10 6.8% 58.5% 1.1% 57.4% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.5 0.0 2.8 58.0%
7-11 3.2% 31.2% 1.2% 29.9% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.0 2.2 30.3%
6-12 1.4% 10.6% 0.7% 9.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3 9.9%
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 89.1% 7.0% 82.1% 7.1 10.9 88.2%