Stanford
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.6 #79
Expected Predictive Rating +12.2 #44
Pace 69.0 #189
Improvement +0.6 #149

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #90 B- B B A- A+
Defense #69 B B- A- D B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #31 1.11 #233 +3.0 #91
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #351 0.70 #250 -4.4 #351
Three Pointers 45% #109 1.10 #75 +4.1 #56
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #107 +2.7 #105
Freethrows 20.9 #30 74% #138 15.5 #29
Second Chance 35.6% #50 1.06 #165 0.38 #72
Turnovers 14.6% #61
Total Offense +3.5 #90

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #215 1.12 #125 +1.4 #126
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #31 0.71 #124 -1.9 #309
Three Pointers 36% #317 0.96 #121 +3.7 #59
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #81 +3.2 #81
Freethrows 19.2 #279 77% #336 14.7 #51
Second Chance 26.3% #49 1.09 #244 0.29 #104
Turnovers 19.9% #34
Total Defense +4.1 #69

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.9% #9 -1.8% #52
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.4% #152 -4.7% #96
Possession Length 17.0 #149 17.2 #184
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #121 0.12 #34
Improvement -0.2 #202 +0.8 #130

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 2.1% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.6% 45.5% 22.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.4% 45.1% 22.1%
Average Seed 9.6 9.2 9.7
.500 or above 96.3% 99.4% 95.8%
.500 or above in Conference 42.0% 65.1% 38.1%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four7.7% 9.6% 7.4%
First Round20.8% 39.9% 17.6%
Second Round6.6% 12.9% 5.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.6% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 14.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 24 - 39 - 10
Quad 35 - 314 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 154 Portland St. W 89 - 79 84%  +6  1 - 0 +7 +6 B+ B- D- -0 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 178 Montana W 91 - 68 87%  +11  2 - 0 +19 +10 B D A+ +7 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 153 Montana St. W 77 - 68 84%  +4  3 - 0 +6 -2 C- C C +7 C B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 310 Louisiana W 93 - 66 95%  +12  4 - 0 +15 +15 A C B+ -1 D- B- C+
 Fri, Nov 21 120 Seattle L 69 - 77 78%  +2  4 - 1 -8 -3 D C- A+ -5 C+ D- A
 Thu, Nov 27 76 Minnesota W 72 - 68 50%  +1  5 - 1 +12 +10 D A+ A+ +2 D- F A+
 Fri, Nov 28 29 Saint Louis W 78 - 77 26%  -6  6 - 1 +15 +10 B- C+ A- +5 A+ F C-
 Mon, Dec 1 238 Portland W 94 - 72 91%  +14  7 - 1 +15 +19 A+ A+ A+ -4 D- C A+
 Sun, Dec 7 142 UNLV L 74 - 75 82%  +2  7 - 2 -3 -2 F A+ F -1 C A- B
 Sat, Dec 13 221 @San Jose St. W 86 - 82 77%  +8  8 - 2 +4 +13 A+ A+ F -9 C+ F F
 Wed, Dec 17 156 Texas Arlington W 76 - 60 84%  +12  9 - 2 +13 +8 A B+ C +6 C A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 77 Colorado W 77 - 68 50%  +3  10 - 2 +17 +5 C- B A- +12 A C+ A+
 Sat, Dec 27 211 Cal St. Northridge W 88 - 80 89%  +1  11 - 2 +2 +6 A+ F D- -4 D+ A+ B
 Tue, Dec 30 59 Notre Dame L 40 - 47 56%  -5  11 - 3 0 - 1 -1 -20 F F A+ +18 A+ C+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 15 Louisville W 80 - 76 25%  +3  12 - 3 1 - 1 +19 +20 A+ A+ A -1 A+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 68 @Virginia Tech W 69 - 68 34%  -5  13 - 3 2 - 1 +13 +13 A B+ A+ -0 B A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 22 @Virginia L 67 - 78 14% 
 Wed, Jan 14 26 North Carolina L 72 - 76 34% 
 Sat, Jan 17 6 Duke L 70 - 80 17% 
 Sat, Jan 24 84 California W 75 - 71 64% 
 Wed, Jan 28 36 @Miami (FL) L 71 - 80 21% 
 Sat, Jan 31 111 @Florida St. W 80 - 79 51% 
 Wed, Feb 4 39 Clemson L 68 - 70 41% 
 Sat, Feb 7 114 Georgia Tech W 78 - 71 74% 
 Wed, Feb 11 151 @Boston College W 71 - 67 66% 
 Sat, Feb 14 62 @Wake Forest L 73 - 77 34% 
 Sat, Feb 21 84 @California L 72 - 74 42% 
 Wed, Feb 25 82 Pittsburgh W 73 - 70 63% 
 Sat, Feb 28 28 SMU L 76 - 80 36% 
 Wed, Mar 4 59 @Notre Dame L 67 - 71 34% 
 Sat, Mar 7 34 @North Carolina St. L 71 - 80 20% 
Totals 19 - 12 8 - 10 +8 +3 B- B B +4 B B- A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.0 0.1 3.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 2.8 0.3 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 4.3 1.3 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.5 4.2 3.6 0.3 8.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.7 6.2 1.2 0.0 10.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 6.2 3.7 0.2 11.3 10th
11th 0.3 3.9 5.7 0.7 0.0 10.5 11th
12th 0.0 1.5 6.3 2.6 0.1 0.0 10.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 4.0 4.1 0.4 0.0 8.9 13th
14th 0.0 1.8 4.2 1.2 0.0 7.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.8 0.2 5.5 15th
16th 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.5 17th
18th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 18th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.9 7.1 12.1 16.9 18.2 16.4 12.2 7.6 3.7 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 83.3% 0.0    0.0
15-3 56.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 20.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 3.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.4% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.5% 96.3% 3.4% 92.9% 7.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.2%
12-6 3.7% 89.3% 1.6% 87.7% 8.5 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.4 89.2%
11-7 7.6% 74.8% 0.8% 74.0% 9.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.9 0.6 1.9 74.6%
10-8 12.2% 55.5% 0.3% 55.2% 9.9 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.9 1.8 0.0 5.4 55.3%
9-9 16.4% 32.8% 0.2% 32.6% 10.4 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.8 0.0 11.0 32.7%
8-10 18.2% 11.7% 0.2% 11.5% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.1 16.1 11.5%
7-11 16.9% 2.0% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 16.6 2.0%
6-12 12.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1 0.2%
5-13 7.1% 7.1
4-14 2.9% 2.9
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.6% 0.3% 25.3% 9.6 74.4 25.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%