Stanford
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.5 77
Results Rating +8.7 67
Pace 68.5 179
Improvement -2.9 289

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 98 B- C+ B- B- A-
Defense B 63 B C+ B D B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 40 C- 57% 199 +2.7 86
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 349 D+ 35% 263 -4.3 356
Three Pointers 46% 75 B- 36% 83 +4.3 49
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.7 13 C+ +0.8 139
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 94
Second Chance B 34.7% 61 C- 0.99 236 C+ 0.34 102
Turnovers B- 15.3% 89
Freethrows B- 0.33 92 C 73% 181 B- 0.24 105
Total Offense B- +3.2 98

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 39% 316 B 8.4% 47
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 255 F+ 9.1% 348
Three Pointers D+ 80% 268 C 1.0% 206
Total C- 52% 244 C+ 5.0% 115

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 163 B- 55% 91 -0.8 141
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 34 C+ 37% 128 +1.9 325
Three Pointers 34% 342 B 31% 53 -5.0 13
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.7 67 B -3.1 60
1st FG Attempt B 0.94 55
Second Chance B 26.7% 55 C- 1.08 258 C+ 0.29 106
Turnovers B 19.2% 54
Freethrows D+ 0.34 279 D- 76% 338 D 0.25 308
Total Defense B +4.4 63

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 37% 15 C+ 11.9% 130
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 23 B 7.3% 55
Three Pointers A- 76% 20 B 1.8% 44
Total A 42% 6 B 7.2% 63

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 140 17.6 247
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 107 0.12 29
Improvement -3.0 #315 +0.1 #182

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 92 77 61
Results Rating Rank 94 70 56
Conference Record 5 - 13 7 - 11 8 - 10
Conference Finish 15 13 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2% 3% 1%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 11.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 2% 3% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 3% 0%
First Round1% 2% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Home) - 69.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 7
Quad 23 - 48 - 11
Quad 35 - 312 - 14
Quad 46 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 150 Portland St. W 89 - 79 83% +6  88% 1 - 0 B- +7 B- +5 B+ B+ D- C+ +1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 194 Montana W 91 - 68 88% +11  99% 2 - 0 A +18 B+ +8 C+ C A+ A- +8 A F+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 164 Montana St. W 77 - 68 84% +4  81% 3 - 0 B- +6 D -5 D B- C A +10 C+ B- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 291 Louisiana W 93 - 66 94% +12  86% 4 - 0 A- +16 A +12 B+ C- A B +4 D+ B B
 Fri, Nov 21 122 Seattle L 69 - 77 77% +2  53% 4 - 1 D -8 C- -2 D+ C A D -6 C D B+
 Thu, Nov 27 59 Minnesota W 72 - 68 45% +1  62% 5 - 1 B+ +13 B+ +8 D- A+ A+ B+ +5 D+ F A
 Fri, Nov 28 23 Saint Louis W 78 - 77 20% -6  15% 6 - 1 A- +17 B+ +8 B B- B A +9 A+ D- D+
 Mon, Dec 1 220 Portland W 94 - 72 90% +14  90% 7 - 1 A- +16 A+ +17 A- A+ A+ C -1 D- C A+
 Sun, Dec 7 118 UNLV L 74 - 75 77% +2  63% 7 - 2 C -1 D- -6 F A+ F B+ +5 B B+ B+
 Sat, Dec 13 218 @San Jose St. W 86 - 82 77% +8  99% 8 - 2 C+ +4 A- +10 A+ A+ F D -6 C F F+
 Wed, Dec 17 180 Texas Arlington W 76 - 60 86% +12  93% 9 - 2 B+ +12 B- +5 A- C+ C- A- +7 C A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 66 Colorado W 77 - 68 46% +3  52% 10 - 2 A- +18 B- +4 D+ B+ A- A+ +14 A- C+ A+
 Sat, Dec 27 159 Cal St. Northridge W 88 - 80 84% +1  50% 11 - 2 B- +5 B- +5 A+ F D+ C -1 D+ A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 30 86 Notre Dame L 40 - 47 65% -5  14% 11 - 3 0 - 1 C- -3 F -26 F F A A+ +21 A+ B- A
 Fri, Jan 2 11 Louisville W 80 - 76 21% +3  73% 12 - 3 1 - 1 A +20 A+ +19 A A+ A- C+ +2 A+ D- B+
 Wed, Jan 7 57 @Virginia Tech W 69 - 68 30% -5  9% 13 - 3 2 - 1 B+ +14 A +11 A- B+ A B- +3 B+ A C
 Sat, Jan 10 22 @Virginia L 55 - 70 12% -9  9% 13 - 4 2 - 2 B- +5 D -5 C F F+ A +8 A B D+
 Wed, Jan 14 27 North Carolina W 95 - 90 33% -5  4% 14 - 4 3 - 2 A- +17 A+ +20 A+ F A- D+ -4 C- D- B
 Sat, Jan 17 2 Duke L 50 - 80 10% -15  0% 14 - 5 3 - 3 D -8 F+ -9 D+ A F C- -3 B F C
 Sat, Jan 24 70 California L 66 - 78 59% -1  39% 14 - 6 3 - 4 D+ -7 F+ -8 F F+ A+ C+ +2 B C+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 39 @Miami (FL) L 70 - 79 20% -1  35% 14 - 7 3 - 5 B- +7 B- +5 C+ A D+ C+ +2 C+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 80 @Florida St. L 80 - 88 39% -7  21% 14 - 8 3 - 6 C+ +2 A- +10 A- C+ A- D- -8 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 41 Clemson L 64 - 66 41% -1  26% 14 - 9 3 - 7 B- +8 B- +4 C+ C- A+ B +4 B C A
 Sat, Feb 7 140 Georgia Tech W 95 - 72 81% +7  90% 15 - 9 4 - 7 A +21 A+ +17 A+ A+ C B +4 A D+ C
 Wed, Feb 11 139 @Boston College W 70 - 64 63% +4  74% 16 - 9 5 - 7 B +10 C +1 B+ C- C- A +9 B B+ B
 Sat, Feb 14 65 @Wake Forest L 63 - 68 35% +3  82% 16 - 10 5 - 8 B- +7 C- -1 B+ F B+ A- +7 A B B-
 Sat, Feb 21 70 @California L 66 - 72 36% -8  0% 16 - 11 5 - 9 B- +5 D+ -3 F A- B A +9 A+ B- C
 Wed, Feb 25 98 Pittsburgh W 73 - 68 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 31 SMU L 77 - 81 34%
 Wed, Mar 4 86 @Notre Dame L 71 - 73 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 24 @North Carolina St. L 72 - 83 15%
Totals 18 - 13 7 - 11 +8 B- +3 B+ C+ A- B +4 B- C B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C- D+ B- C+ 44% 18% 46% A- B- B C- C+ B- B- C B- B B- C+ B B 39% 26% 34% B B B C- C+ B D+ D- D
1.13 57% 35% 36% +1 +2 1.07 35% 1.0 .34 15% .33 73% .24 1.02 55% 37% 31% -3 -1 0.94 27% 1.1 .29 19% .34 76% .25
Nov
4		 Portland St. B- C- F B B- 58% 8% 34% A+ B+ C+ A B+ D- A+ A- A+ C+ D+ B+ F F 33% 19% 48% B F A A+ A+ A+ B D- C+
1.11 55% 25% 35% -2 +3 1.04 31% 1.2 .38 21% .57 81% .46 0.98 61% 30% 50% +11 0 1.24 24% 0.0 .00 26% .27 75% .20
Nov
8		 Montana B+ D- A+ B- C 52% 12% 35% A C+ B D- C A+ F F F A- A- F A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% D+ A B+ F F+ A+ C- F F
1.22 53% 50% 35% -1 +2 1.05 34% 0.9 .30 7% .22 60% .13 0.91 50% 50% 26% -6 +1 0.91 18% 1.8 .32 27% .31 94% .29
Nov
12		 Montana St. D C F F D- 48% 17% 35% B- D D A+ B- C A- C A- A B F B C+ 30% 28% 42% C+ C+ A+ F B- A+ B A+ A
1.03 58% 22% 26% -7 +1 0.91 25% 1.4 .36 16% .34 76% .26 0.91 50% 53% 32% +1 -2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 21% .22 54% .12
Nov
18		 Louisiana A A+ D+ C+ A- 29% 13% 58% C- B+ C+ D- C- A A+ A- A+ B D+ F A+ C- 48% 34% 18% F D+ A D- B B F+ A+ C-
1.30 86% 33% 36% +9 0 1.21 34% 0.9 .31 14% .57 80% .46 0.93 58% 47% 22% 0 -1 1.00 18% 1.0 .18 20% .30 59% .17
Nov
21		 Seattle C- D- C+ F F+ 52% 10% 38% A D+ B- D+ C A A+ F B+ D F A+ F+ C- 39% 31% 31% A C B- F D B+ F F F
0.95 46% 40% 26% -10 +2 0.86 33% 0.9 .28 17% .41 64% .26 1.06 68% 20% 40% +1 -1 1.02 23% 1.2 .27 21% .42 83% .35
Nov
27		 Minnesota B+ F A+ F F 47% 10% 43% A+ D- A+ A A+ A+ A B+ A B+ A- B- F D 33% 15% 51% B- D+ A- F F A C- D D+
1.12 46% 60% 23% -11 +2 0.84 47% 1.1 .50 12% .32 78% .25 1.06 54% 33% 45% +6 0 1.15 24% 1.8 .44 22% .36 72% .26
Nov
28		 Saint Louis B+ F F A+ C+ 47% 7% 45% A+ B B C B- B A- D+ B+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ 53% 10% 37% C A+ C- F+ D- D+ F F F
1.08 31% 0% 48% -6 +2 0.95 30% 0.8 .26 14% .38 71% .27 1.06 44% 20% 26% -13 +2 0.80 34% 1.2 .42 15% .46 93% .42
Dec
1		 Portland A+ C F A B+ 44% 4% 53% A A- C+ A+ A+ A+ B- D C+ C F+ C+ F F 38% 33% 29% A+ D- B- D C A+ F D- F
1.35 58% 0% 41% +5 +3 1.16 34% 1.5 .51 12% .33 70% .23 1.04 69% 36% 42% +7 -2 1.12 27% 1.3 .35 26% .47 79% .37
Dec
7		 UNLV D- F C F F 33% 16% 51% C F A+ A A+ F A+ F B B+ C C B- B- 46% 37% 17% A B C+ A B+ B+ F A+ D+
1.02 38% 38% 24% -14 0 0.73 48% 1.3 .62 22% .48 63% .30 1.04 58% 42% 33% +1 -2 1.02 32% 0.7 .21 19% .46 59% .27
Dec
13		 San Jose St. A- A- F A+ A+ 49% 5% 46% A A+ A+ C A+ F A+ D+ A+ D F C- B D+ 26% 43% 30% A+ C C F F F+ D F F
1.24 72% 0% 53% +18 +3 1.43 60% 1.2 .70 29% .59 72% .43 1.19 71% 39% 31% +3 -4 1.00 33% 1.5 .48 12% .33 90% .29
Dec
17		 Texas Arlington B- A- F C- B 57% 14% 30% A+ A- C- A- C+ C- A+ A- A+ A- C+ B B- C 46% 22% 32% C+ C A+ A A+ C F B- F
1.13 68% 17% 31% +1 +2 1.09 27% 1.3 .35 18% .58 78% .45 0.89 53% 33% 31% -5 0 0.93 14% 0.8 .10 21% .54 69% .37
Dec
20		 Colorado B- F A+ D+ D- 50% 14% 36% A D+ A D+ B+ A- A+ D A+ A+ F+ D- A+ A- 41% 27% 33% B A- A+ F C+ A+ A F B-
1.09 45% 50% 31% -6 +2 0.93 36% 1.0 .36 13% .67 68% .46 0.97 70% 46% 19% 0 -1 1.00 23% 1.3 .30 26% .25 92% .23
Dec
27		 Cal St. Northridge B- B- D A+ A+ 39% 7% 54% A A+ D+ F F D+ A+ D A+ C B- B+ F D 44% 21% 35% B D+ A+ A A+ B+ F F F
1.17 61% 33% 44% +9 +2 1.24 24% 0.5 .12 17% .61 71% .43 1.06 52% 30% 47% +3 0 1.08 17% 0.8 .13 20% .50 80% .40
Dec
30		 Notre Dame F F F F F 44% 4% 52% A+ F C F F A D- A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 21% 30% D- A+ D A B- A C+ A+ B+
0.69 43% 0% 16% -22 +3 0.63 24% 0.4 .10 10% .23 83% .19 0.81 43% 0% 23% -20 +1 0.63 38% 0.8 .29 21% .30 57% .17
Jan
2		 Louisville A+ C C- A+ A 36% 27% 36% C+ A A+ B+ A+ A- A+ D A+ C+ F+ F A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% A A+ F A D- B+ F F F
1.25 56% 33% 44% +3 -1 1.07 40% 1.1 .43 14% .57 68% .38 1.19 71% 57% 23% -1 0 1.00 51% 0.8 .43 19% .41 86% .35
Jan
7		 Virginia Tech A C A+ B B+ 41% 9% 50% A A- C+ A B+ A D- A- D B- C- B- C B 28% 30% 43% A+ B+ F A+ A C F D+ F
1.15 58% 50% 35% +2 +2 1.09 31% 1.2 .38 13% .17 78% .13 1.13 64% 33% 35% +1 -2 1.00 40% 0.6 .26 15% .49 76% .37
Jan
10		 Virginia D A- F F D+ 38% 17% 46% A- C B+ F F F+ B+ A A A F+ D+ A+ A 35% 20% 46% A- A B C+ B D+ C F D
0.87 61% 25% 23% -9 0 0.85 32% 0.2 .05 20% .34 82% .28 1.10 69% 44% 24% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 14% .31 82% .26
Jan
14		 North Carolina A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 38% 11% 51% A+ A+ F F F A- A+ D- A+ D+ C F C+ D 42% 28% 30% B+ C- A- F D- B F A- F
1.30 57% 67% 57% +20 +1 1.45 7% 0.0 .00 11% .35 65% .23 1.23 62% 64% 33% +9 -1 1.18 28% 1.6 .45 15% .52 63% .32
Jan
17		 Duke F+ D- B- F F+ 40% 11% 49% A D+ A+ B- A F B- F C C- C+ A+ F+ B+ 60% 16% 23% C B C- F F C F C+ F
0.79 44% 40% 23% -13 +1 0.78 35% 0.8 .30 29% .22 60% .13 1.27 62% 29% 40% +3 +2 1.12 41% 1.5 .63 16% .53 71% .38
Jan
24		 California F+ F F F F 44% 6% 50% A F B F F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ C+ A+ F B- 24% 29% 47% A- B B- C- C+ C- F+ D+ F
0.93 39% 0% 23% -19 +2 0.69 33% 0.5 .17 10% .48 77% .37 1.09 58% 21% 43% +2 -2 1.02 25% 1.1 .28 14% .41 80% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Miami (FL) B- F F A+ C 41% 16% 43% A- C+ A+ C+ A D+ D- F F C+ C C F C 51% 28% 21% B+ C+ F A+ B+ D F A F
1.05 43% 25% 45% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.1 .38 21% .19 50% .09 1.18 63% 38% 40% +4 0 1.11 47% 0.7 .34 13% .54 61% .33
Jan
31		 Florida St. A- B+ A- A- A 25% 24% 51% D+ A- B+ D- C+ A- F D- F D- D- F B- F 48% 11% 41% D F A F F C- F F+ F
1.16 64% 46% 39% +8 -1 1.15 36% 0.8 .28 16% .16 67% .10 1.27 68% 80% 32% +8 +2 1.22 24% 2.0 .48 13% .48 79% .38
Feb
4		 Clemson B- C- B D+ C+ 32% 19% 49% B- C+ B F C- A+ F B- F B B A+ F B+ 44% 15% 41% C B A- F C A F D F
1.03 53% 40% 31% -4 0 0.94 26% 0.7 .18 11% .16 78% .13 1.07 56% 17% 41% 0 +1 1.05 23% 1.3 .31 19% .44 77% .34
Feb
7		 Georgia Tech A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 40% 15% 45% B+ A+ A A+ A+ C B- A+ A B B+ A- B+ A+ 52% 25% 23% D A C+ F D+ C C+ A- B-
1.31 71% 38% 42% +10 +1 1.25 38% 1.4 .52 17% .31 89% .28 0.99 52% 29% 31% -7 0 0.89 31% 1.3 .41 18% .29 65% .18
Feb
11		 Boston College C A+ F D+ B+ 40% 11% 49% B+ B+ F A+ C- C- F A- F+ A B D A+ B- 38% 33% 29% B B A+ F B+ B A+ F A+
1.02 71% 17% 31% 0 +1 1.06 16% 1.4 .23 16% .19 73% .14 0.93 52% 44% 25% -4 -2 0.91 18% 1.3 .24 18% .14 75% .11
Feb
14		 Wake Forest C- B+ F+ B+ B+ 29% 15% 56% C B+ D- F F B+ D+ F D- A- A- F A+ A 34% 24% 41% B+ A A+ F B B- F F F
1.00 64% 29% 37% +3 0 1.08 23% 0.7 .17 17% .27 64% .17 1.08 50% 60% 24% -4 -1 0.93 20% 1.6 .32 16% .60 88% .53
Feb
21		 California D+ F F D- F 41% 8% 51% A- F B- A A- B A+ D+ A+ A A+ B+ C+ A+ 26% 30% 43% A- A+ F A+ B- C D- D- F+
0.95 35% 0% 28% -17 +2 0.71 31% 1.2 .38 14% .49 62% .30 1.04 43% 31% 35% -6 -2 0.87 37% 0.7 .27 14% .39 83% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 1.1 2.2 9th
10th 0.2 4.9 0.7 5.8 10th
11th 3.1 6.3 0.1 9.5 11th
12th 0.7 16.1 2.1 0.0 18.9 12th
13th 0.2 13.9 16.5 0.1 30.7 13th
14th 5.4 20.8 1.0 27.2 14th
15th 4.2 0.5 4.7 15th
16th 0.8 0.0 0.8 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 10.7 35.9 36.8 14.6 2.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 2.0% 31.6% 0.3% 31.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.4 31.3%
8-10 14.6% 9.1% 0.2% 8.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 13.2 8.9%
7-11 36.8% 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 11.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 36.4 1.3%
6-12 35.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.9 0.1%
5-13 10.7% 10.7
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.5% 0.1% 2.4% 10.9 97.5 2.4%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 45.5% 10.1 40.9 4.5
Lose Out 8.9%