TCU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.3 #51
Expected Predictive Rating +10.1 #59
Pace 69.3 #167
Improvement -1.9 #268

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #86 B- B- B- C+ C+
Defense #30 B- B- B+ B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #73 1.26 #71 +4.6 #40
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #182 0.72 #243 -0.5 #200
Three Pointers 37% #263 1.04 #137 -1.5 #237
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #102 +2.6 #101
Freethrows 0.32 #111 72% #188 0.23 #122
Second Chance 33.2% #108 1.11 #76 0.37 #74
Turnovers 15.4% #101
Total Offense +3.5 #86

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #193 0.99 #21 +3.2 #74
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #106 0.78 #231 -1.0 #269
Three Pointers 39% #243 1.02 #194 +0.8 #140
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #81 +3.0 #80
Freethrows 0.27 #71 69% #50 0.19 #59
Second Chance 27.1% #60 0.99 #121 0.27 #68
Turnovers 20.5% #21
Total Defense +6.8 #30

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #146 -0.5% #125
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.4% #98 -5.5% #77
Possession Length 15.9 #58 18.7 #348
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #14 0.12 #32
Improvement +0.3 #157 -2.2 #302

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.1% 30.7% 16.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.0% 30.6% 16.1%
Average Seed 10.0 10.0 10.2
.500 or above 90.1% 94.9% 75.8%
.500 or above in Conference 22.9% 27.8% 8.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.2% 3.5%
First Four11.3% 12.4% 7.9%
First Round21.0% 24.0% 12.0%
Second Round7.6% 8.9% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.4% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Home) - 74.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 9
Quad 24 - 38 - 12
Quad 33 - 111 - 14
Quad 47 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 218 New Orleans L 74 - 78 93% -12  0 - 1 -10 -9 F B+ B- -1 D+ F+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 357 St. Francis (PA) W 104 - 63 99% +23  1 - 1 +24 +13 B A+ D+ +7 C A B-
 Mon, Nov 10 197 Lamar W 78 - 65 92% +2  2 - 1 +8 +10 B A+ D+ -2 C- B+ D
 Fri, Nov 14 1 Michigan L 63 - 67 14% +2  2 - 2 +18 +2 B D- B+ +16 A+ B- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 358 UMKC W 81 - 45 99% +22  3 - 2 +18 +1 F+ A- D+ +17 A+ B- A+
 Thu, Nov 27 5 Florida W 84 - 80 14% -2  4 - 2 +26 +15 B+ A+ A +10 A F A+
 Fri, Nov 28 37 Wisconsin W 74 - 63 38% +11  5 - 2 +25 +2 B+ F+ D+ +22 A+ A- A+
 Fri, Dec 5 81 Notre Dame L 85 - 87 OT 74% +2  5 - 3 +2 +9 A- B A- -7 F A+ B
 Sun, Dec 7 147 @North Texas W 65 - 55 73% +2  6 - 3 +14 +2 D+ A D- +12 B+ B+ B+
 Mon, Dec 15 248 Incarnate Word W 69 - 65 95% -4  7 - 3 -4 -3 F A- A- -1 D- B+ A-
 Thu, Dec 18 335 Oral Roberts W 72 - 53 98% +15  8 - 3 +5 +5 D+ A+ C+ +3 D- A+ A
 Sun, Dec 21 317 Florida A&M W 80 - 56 97% +5  9 - 3 +11 +9 C- B B- +5 D+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 337 Jackson St. W 115 - 64 98% +24  10 - 3 +37 +29 A+ D+ A+ +5 C+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 3 47 Baylor W 69 - 63 57% +7  11 - 3 1 - 0 +15 +5 C- B- C +10 A+ A B
 Tue, Jan 6 14 @Kansas L 100 - 104 OT 15% +4  11 - 4 1 - 1 +17 +19 A+ A+ F+ -1 C B- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 2 Arizona L 73 - 86 16% -12  11 - 5 1 - 2 +8 +7 C+ A- B+ +2 B B- C-
 Wed, Jan 14 15 @BYU L 70 - 76 15% +0  11 - 6 1 - 3 +15 +6 B- C A +9 A+ D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 104 @Utah L 79 - 82 61% -6  11 - 7 1 - 4 +4 +9 B+ F+ B+ -5 D+ D A-
 Tue, Jan 20 56 Oklahoma St. W 68 - 65 64% -1  12 - 7 2 - 4 +10 -1 B- C D +11 A C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 47 @Baylor W 97 - 90 34% +4  13 - 7 3 - 4 +22 +18 A- C- B +3 D- B- A+
 Wed, Jan 28 6 Houston L 70 - 79 22% -7  13 - 8 3 - 5 +10 +6 A F+ A+ +4 D+ A+ B+
 Sun, Feb 1 72 @Colorado L 61 - 87 47% -13  13 - 9 3 - 6 -15 -5 F D C+ -11 D F D+
 Sat, Feb 7 92 Kansas St. W 81 - 74 75%
 Tue, Feb 10 4 Iowa St. L 69 - 78 20%
 Sat, Feb 14 56 @Oklahoma St. L 78 - 80 41%
 Tue, Feb 17 44 @Central Florida L 75 - 79 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 57 West Virginia W 68 - 64 65%
 Tue, Feb 24 77 Arizona St. W 80 - 74 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 92 @Kansas St. W 78 - 77 55%
 Tue, Mar 3 17 @Texas Tech L 70 - 80 17%
 Sat, Mar 7 52 Cincinnati W 70 - 67 61%
Totals 17 - 14 7 - 11 +10 +4 B- B- B- +7 B- B- B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.4 1.7 0.6 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.4 3.7 3.1 0.3 7.5 7th
8th 1.0 8.4 8.4 1.4 0.0 19.2 8th
9th 0.4 8.2 12.1 2.3 0.1 23.1 9th
10th 0.0 3.1 11.0 2.8 0.1 16.9 10th
11th 0.5 7.0 4.6 0.2 12.3 11th
12th 2.3 5.4 0.7 0.0 8.3 12th
13th 0.3 3.6 1.1 0.0 5.0 13th
14th 0.0 1.1 1.7 0.1 2.9 14th
15th 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 15th
16th 0.1 0.1 0.2 16th
Total 0.3 2.1 8.1 17.1 25.5 23.9 14.9 6.5 1.4 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 1.4% 92.1% 0.7% 91.4% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 92.0%
10-8 6.5% 86.2% 0.2% 86.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.9 0.5 0.9 86.2%
9-9 14.9% 67.3% 0.3% 67.1% 9.9 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.1 3.0 4.9 67.3%
8-10 23.9% 32.4% 0.2% 32.2% 10.7 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.5 0.2 16.2 32.2%
7-11 25.5% 8.3% 0.2% 8.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7 0.2 23.4 8.1%
6-12 17.1% 1.1% 0.1% 1.1% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 16.9 1.1%
5-13 8.1% 8.1
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.1% 0.2% 26.9% 10.0 72.9 27.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%