TCU
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#65
Expected Predictive Rating+6.7#83
Pace68.1#207
Improvement+0.6#143

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#134
First Shot-0.2#182
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#80
Layup/Dunks+3.0#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#241
Freethrows-0.5#214
Improvement+1.8#74

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#27
First Shot+5.9#28
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#117
Layups/Dunks+2.2#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#52
Freethrows+1.1#106
Improvement-1.2#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 12.9% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.7% 12.7% 4.7%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 9.9
.500 or above 37.9% 50.9% 25.2%
.500 or above in Conference 22.4% 32.3% 12.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.5% 3.3% 11.6%
First Four3.2% 4.5% 1.9%
First Round7.1% 10.5% 3.7%
Second Round2.9% 4.5% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Home) - 49.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 12
Quad 24 - 46 - 16
Quad 34 - 111 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 358   Florida A&M W 105-59 98%     1 - 0 +29.0 +28.2 +1.2
  Nov 08, 2024 182   Florida Gulf Coast W 67-51 87%     2 - 0 +12.1 -2.2 +15.8
  Nov 12, 2024 166   Texas St. W 76-71 86%     3 - 0 +1.6 -3.2 +4.6
  Nov 15, 2024 10   @ Michigan L 64-76 11%     3 - 1 +9.3 -1.8 +11.6
  Nov 19, 2024 340   Alcorn St. W 71-48 97%     4 - 1 +8.6 -5.2 +15.5
  Nov 28, 2024 75   Santa Clara L 52-69 54%     4 - 2 -9.9 -18.9 +8.8
  Nov 29, 2024 87   Colorado St. L 72-76 OT 58%     4 - 3 +2.2 -4.3 +7.0
  Dec 05, 2024 52   Xavier W 76-72 53%     5 - 3 +11.4 +10.0 +1.6
  Dec 08, 2024 50   Vanderbilt L 74-83 40%     5 - 4 +1.8 +1.3 +1.0
  Dec 16, 2024 116   South Alabama W 58-49 79%     6 - 4 +8.8 -4.3 +14.5
  Dec 22, 2024 181   Montana St. W 82-48 87%     7 - 4 +30.1 +9.0 +21.6
  Dec 30, 2024 12   @ Arizona L 81-90 12%     7 - 5 0 - 1 +11.7 +23.2 -12.2
  Jan 04, 2025 85   Kansas St. W 63-62 68%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +4.3 -2.9 +7.3
  Jan 06, 2025 3   @ Houston L 46-65 7%     8 - 6 1 - 2 +5.4 -3.9 +5.8
  Jan 11, 2025 45   BYU L 71-72 50%    
  Jan 15, 2025 86   Utah W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 19, 2025 13   @ Baylor L 64-75 14%    
  Jan 22, 2025 6   Kansas L 66-74 22%    
  Jan 25, 2025 89   @ Central Florida L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 29, 2025 21   @ Texas Tech L 66-76 17%    
  Feb 02, 2025 82   Colorado W 70-66 66%    
  Feb 05, 2025 39   West Virginia L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 4   @ Iowa St. L 63-79 7%    
  Feb 12, 2025 96   Oklahoma St. W 74-68 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 56   @ Arizona St. L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 18, 2025 21   Texas Tech L 69-73 34%    
  Feb 22, 2025 33   @ Cincinnati L 62-69 25%    
  Feb 25, 2025 39   @ West Virginia L 62-69 26%    
  Mar 01, 2025 89   Central Florida W 73-68 68%    
  Mar 04, 2025 13   Baylor L 67-72 31%    
  Mar 08, 2025 82   @ Colorado L 67-69 44%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 2.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.9 4.1 0.8 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.3 3.8 5.9 1.7 0.1 0.0 11.7 9th
10th 0.1 2.6 6.4 2.9 0.3 0.0 12.3 10th
11th 0.0 1.3 6.4 4.4 0.5 0.0 12.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 4.4 5.4 0.9 0.0 11.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.0 1.8 0.1 9.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 7.8 14th
15th 0.1 0.8 2.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.8 15th
16th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.3 16th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.2 9.3 13.3 16.7 16.2 14.1 10.4 6.3 3.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 40.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 5.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.0% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.2% 100.0% 3.9% 96.1% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.6% 94.4% 2.1% 92.3% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.3%
13-7 1.4% 85.6% 1.5% 84.0% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 85.3%
12-8 3.5% 66.2% 0.8% 65.4% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.2 65.9%
11-9 6.3% 40.0% 0.2% 39.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.0 3.8 39.8%
10-10 10.4% 16.2% 0.2% 16.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.1 8.7 16.0%
9-11 14.1% 2.1% 0.1% 1.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.8 1.9%
8-12 16.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.2 0.1%
7-13 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 16.7
6-14 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 13.3
5-15 9.3% 9.3
4-16 5.2% 5.2
3-17 2.1% 2.1
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 8.8% 0.1% 8.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.2 3.0 0.2 91.2 8.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%