TCU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.8 #44
Expected Predictive Rating +12.0 #47
Pace 68.5 #204
Improvement +1.5 #101

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #76 B- A- B- C- C+
Defense #23 B- B A+ B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #93 1.24 #93 +3.6 #69
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #202 0.71 #236 -1.0 #224
Three Pointers 39% #217 1.09 #89 +0.5 #161
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #94 +3.1 #95
Freethrows 16.6 #226 72% #212 11.9 #223
Second Chance 35.2% #62 1.18 #48 0.41 #35
Turnovers 15.5% #113
Total Offense +4.5 #76

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #138 0.99 #25 +2.4 #98
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #164 0.76 #185 -0.2 #195
Three Pointers 39% #243 1.04 #219 +0.6 #158
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #95 +2.8 #94
Freethrows 15.8 #109 72% #147 11.3 #265
Second Chance 26.9% #64 1.00 #138 0.27 #65
Turnovers 20.8% #17
Total Defense +7.3 #23

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #129 0.1% #174
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.2% #103 -5.4% #84
Possession Length 16.2 #81 17.8 #266
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #12 0.12 #32
Improvement +2.2 #55 -0.7 #236

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 2.4% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 7.8% 17.1% 5.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.3% 77.7% 52.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.1% 77.5% 52.2%
Average Seed 8.5 7.9 8.7
.500 or above 93.1% 98.4% 91.8%
.500 or above in Conference 53.5% 74.9% 48.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.3% 1.6%
First Four8.7% 6.8% 9.2%
First Round52.9% 74.1% 47.8%
Second Round25.9% 38.3% 22.8%
Sweet Sixteen5.7% 9.4% 4.9%
Elite Eight1.9% 3.1% 1.6%
Final Four0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Home) - 19.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 9
Quad 25 - 310 - 12
Quad 33 - 113 - 12
Quad 47 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 236 New Orleans L 74 - 78 95%  -12  0 - 1 -11 -9 F B+ B- -1 D F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 361 St. Francis (PA) W 104 - 63 99%  +23  1 - 1 +22 +12 C+ A+ D +6 C A+ B-
 Mon, Nov 10 231 Lamar W 78 - 65 95%  +2  2 - 1 +6 +11 B+ A+ D+ -4 F A- D-
 Fri, Nov 14 1 Michigan L 63 - 67 14%  +2  2 - 2 +20 +4 A D- B+ +16 A+ C+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 343 UMKC W 81 - 45 98%  +22  3 - 2 +21 +2 F A+ C- +19 A+ B+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 12 Florida W 84 - 80 26%  -2  4 - 2 +22 +14 A- A+ A- +8 A+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 28 43 Wisconsin W 74 - 63 50%  +11  5 - 2 +23 +3 A F C- +19 A+ A- A+
 Fri, Dec 5 59 Notre Dame L 85 - 87 OT 71%  +2  5 - 3 +4 +11 A+ A- A+ -7 F A+ B+
 Sun, Dec 7 133 @North Texas W 65 - 55 75%  +2  6 - 3 +15 +3 C A+ F +13 A- A A-
 Mon, Dec 15 165 Incarnate Word W 69 - 65 92%  -4  7 - 3 +0 -1 F A+ A+ +2 D- A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 298 Oral Roberts W 72 - 53 97%  +15  8 - 3 +8 +7 C- A+ A +5 D A+ A
 Sun, Dec 21 345 Florida A&M W 80 - 56 98%  +5  9 - 3 +9 +6 C- B- B- +4 D A+ D-
 Mon, Dec 29 342 Jackson St. W 115 - 64 98%  +24  10 - 3 +36 +29 A+ D- A+ +5 B- F B+
 Sat, Jan 3 32 Baylor W 69 - 63 53%  +7  11 - 3 1 - 0 +17 +6 C- C+ C +12 A+ B A+
 Tue, Jan 6 18 @Kansas L 100 - 104 OT 23%  +4  11 - 4 1 - 1 +16 +19 A+ A+ F -3 C B C
 Sat, Jan 10 2 Arizona L 71 - 80 19% 
 Wed, Jan 14 8 @BYU L 69 - 81 13% 
 Sat, Jan 17 117 @Utah W 78 - 72 70% 
 Tue, Jan 20 54 Oklahoma St. W 82 - 77 69% 
 Sat, Jan 24 32 @Baylor L 73 - 78 32% 
 Wed, Jan 28 11 Houston L 64 - 69 33% 
 Sun, Feb 1 77 @Colorado W 77 - 76 54% 
 Sat, Feb 7 74 Kansas St. W 82 - 75 73% 
 Tue, Feb 10 3 Iowa St. L 68 - 76 22% 
 Sat, Feb 14 54 @Oklahoma St. L 79 - 80 46% 
 Tue, Feb 17 50 @Central Florida L 76 - 78 43% 
 Sat, Feb 21 67 West Virginia W 70 - 64 71% 
 Tue, Feb 24 88 Arizona St. W 80 - 72 78% 
 Sat, Feb 28 74 @Kansas St. W 79 - 78 53% 
 Tue, Mar 3 17 @Texas Tech L 70 - 78 23% 
 Sat, Mar 7 58 Cincinnati W 72 - 67 69% 
Totals 19 - 12 9 - 9 +12 +4 B- A- B- +7 B- B A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.7 1.2 0.1 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.8 2.1 0.2 10.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 6.5 3.6 0.4 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 6.8 4.6 0.6 0.0 13.6 7th
8th 0.5 5.1 5.7 1.1 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.6 6.4 1.9 0.1 11.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 5.2 2.9 0.2 9.0 10th
11th 0.2 2.5 4.1 0.6 0.0 7.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 3.4 1.1 0.0 5.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 2.0 1.7 0.1 4.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.7 8.7 13.7 16.8 17.5 14.9 10.6 6.1 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 58.3% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 11.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 100.0% 2.1% 97.9% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.0% 100.0% 2.4% 97.6% 4.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 100.0%
13-5 3.0% 100.0% 2.3% 97.7% 5.9 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 6.1% 98.9% 1.4% 97.6% 6.8 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 98.9%
11-7 10.6% 97.2% 1.3% 95.9% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.1 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.3 97.2%
10-8 14.9% 90.8% 0.5% 90.2% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.3 4.1 2.5 0.5 1.4 90.7%
9-9 17.5% 77.3% 0.2% 77.1% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.3 4.1 4.8 1.8 4.0 77.3%
8-10 16.8% 42.9% 0.1% 42.8% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 3.8 0.1 9.6 42.8%
7-11 13.7% 15.4% 0.1% 15.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 0.1 11.5 15.3%
6-12 8.7% 2.1% 2.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 8.5 2.1%
5-13 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 4.7 0.2%
4-14 1.9% 1.9
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 57.3% 0.5% 56.8% 8.5 42.7 57.1%