TCU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +10.8 50
Results Rating +12.6 47
Pace 68.6 177
Improvement -1.2 231

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 94 C+ B B- B- C+
Defense B+ 28 B- B A- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 51 C+ 60% 116 +3.7 54
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 207 C- 37% 209 -0.6 210
Three Pointers 37% 264 C+ 35% 120 -1.2 225
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 114 C+ +1.4 119
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.06 114
Second Chance B 35.3% 53 C+ 1.06 130 B 0.37 60
Turnovers B- 15.4% 93
Freethrows B 0.34 61 C- 71% 223 B- 0.25 95
Total Offense B- +3.5 94

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 57% 54 B- 9.5% 100
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 35% 58 B 3.1% 59
Three Pointers B+ 91% 32 C+ 0.7% 137
Total B 63% 44 B- 5.0% 111

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 185 B+ 52% 39 -2.5 94
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 143 C- 39% 217 +0.5 230
Three Pointers 40% 215 C+ 33% 151 -0.8 150
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 144 B- -2.6 73
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 93
Second Chance B+ 25.7% 32 C 1.02 168 B 0.26 57
Turnovers A- 20.6% 25
Freethrows B 0.26 47 B 70% 59 B 0.18 41
Total Defense B+ +7.3 28

Assists Blocks
Close Shots F 62% 358 A 18.3% 18
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 35% 322 C 4.7% 185
Three Pointers D- 90% 345 A 2.6% 13
Total F+ 66% 349 A 9.1% 15

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.0 48 18.9 349
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 16 0.12 36
Improvement +0.5 #157 -1.7 #279

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 61 50 42
Results Rating Rank 56 47 38
Conference Record 7 - 11 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 10 8 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None 11 8
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Four 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54% 62% 38%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54% 62% 37%
Average Seed 9.9 9.8 10.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 69% 84% 38%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four17% 17% 18%
First Round45% 53% 28%
Second Round15% 18% 9%
Sweet Sixteen2% 3% 1%
Elite Eight1% 1% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Home) - 67.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 8
Quad 25 - 310 - 11
Quad 33 - 113 - 12
Quad 47 - 120 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 206 New Orleans L 74 - 78 93% -12  3% 0 - 1 D -9 F -10 F B+ B C+ +1 D F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 355 St. Francis (PA) W 104 - 63 99% +23  98% 1 - 1 A+ +23 B+ +9 B A+ D+ A +10 C+ A B-
 Mon, Nov 10 216 Lamar W 78 - 65 93% +2  50% 2 - 1 B- +7 B +7 B A+ D- C+ +1 C- B D
 Fri, Nov 14 1 Michigan L 63 - 67 12% +2  69% 2 - 2 A +20 C -0 B+ D- B+ A+ +20 A+ B- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 360 UMKC W 81 - 45 99% +22  99% 3 - 2 A- +16 C- -2 F+ A- D+ A+ +18 A+ B- A+
 Thu, Nov 27 4 Florida W 84 - 80 12% -2  19% 4 - 2 A+ +28 A +14 B+ A+ A A+ +13 A+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 28 30 Wisconsin W 74 - 63 35% +11  98% 5 - 2 A+ +26 C- -0 A- F+ D+ A+ +26 A+ A A+
 Fri, Dec 5 86 Notre Dame L 85 - 87 OT 75% +2  56% 5 - 3 C+ +2 B +6 A- B A D+ -4 F A+ B
 Sun, Dec 7 137 @North Texas W 65 - 55 73% +2  66% 6 - 3 B+ +14 C- -0 D+ A D- A+ +15 B+ A- B+
 Mon, Dec 15 269 Incarnate Word W 69 - 65 96% -4  20% 7 - 3 D+ -5 D- -8 F A- B+ B- +3 D- A- B+
 Thu, Dec 18 335 Oral Roberts W 72 - 53 98% +15  95% 8 - 3 C+ +5 C+ +3 D+ A+ B- B +5 F+ A+ A
 Sun, Dec 21 328 Florida A&M W 80 - 56 98% +5  52% 9 - 3 B +10 B +6 D+ B+ B- B+ +6 D+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 337 Jackson St. W 115 - 64 98% +24  99% 10 - 3 A+ +36 A+ +25 A+ D+ A A- +8 C+ F+ A-
 Sat, Jan 3 44 Baylor W 69 - 63 59% +7  93% 11 - 3 1 - 0 B+ +14 C+ +2 D+ B- C A+ +13 A+ A- B
 Tue, Jan 6 21 @Kansas L 100 - 104 OT 18% +4  71% 11 - 4 1 - 1 A- +17 A+ +17 A+ A+ F+ C+ +0 C- B- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 3 Arizona L 73 - 86 16% -12  0% 11 - 5 1 - 2 B +9 B- +5 B- A- B+ B +4 B B- C-
 Wed, Jan 14 20 @BYU L 70 - 76 17% +0  53% 11 - 6 1 - 3 A- +15 C+ +2 C+ C A A+ +12 A+ D C-
 Sat, Jan 17 99 @Utah L 79 - 82 61% -6  0% 11 - 7 1 - 4 B- +5 B+ +8 A- D- A- C- -3 D D+ B+
 Tue, Jan 20 68 Oklahoma St. W 68 - 65 70% -1  32% 12 - 7 2 - 4 B +8 D -4 B- C D A+ +13 A C- A
 Sat, Jan 24 44 @Baylor W 97 - 90 36% +4  63% 13 - 7 3 - 4 A +21 A+ +15 A- C- B+ B+ +5 D- C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 6 Houston L 70 - 79 21% -7  1% 13 - 8 3 - 5 B +10 C+ +3 A+ D- A+ B+ +7 D+ A+ A-
 Sun, Feb 1 66 @Colorado L 61 - 87 47% -13  6% 13 - 9 3 - 6 F+ -14 D- -7 F+ D- B- F+ -9 D- F D+
 Sat, Feb 7 96 Kansas St. W 84 - 82 78% -8  0% 14 - 9 4 - 6 C+ +5 B+ +8 B+ A+ C+ C- -3 D D+ C+
 Tue, Feb 10 8 Iowa St. W 62 - 55 25% -1  25% 15 - 9 5 - 6 A+ +25 D+ -2 D+ A C+ A+ +27 A+ A A+
 Sat, Feb 14 68 @Oklahoma St. W 95 - 92 OT 48% +5  97% 16 - 9 6 - 6 B+ +14 A+ +17 B B A+ C- -2 F+ A D-
 Tue, Feb 17 51 @Central Florida L 71 - 82 40% -11  0% 16 - 10 6 - 7 C+ +3 C- -1 D- B C+ B +4 C- A+ B-
 Sat, Feb 21 55 West Virginia W 60 - 54 65% +0  44% 17 - 10 7 - 7 B+ +13 C +1 D B+ C- A+ +13 B+ A- A+
 Tue, Feb 24 60 Arizona St. W 77 - 72 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 96 @Kansas St. W 79 - 77 58%
 Tue, Mar 3 14 @Texas Tech L 67 - 78 15%
 Sat, Mar 7 43 Cincinnati W 69 - 68 55%
Totals 19 - 12 9 - 9 +11 B- +3 A+ C+ C+ B+ +7 C+ C- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C+ C- C+ C+ 43% 35% 37% C+ C+ B C+ B B- B C- B- B+ B+ C- C+ B- 38% 22% 40% C B- B+ C B A- B B B
1.14 60% 37% 35% +1 0 1.06 35% 1.1 .37 15% .34 71% .25 0.98 52% 39% 33% -3 0 0.97 26% 1.0 .26 21% .26 70% .24
Nov
3		 New Orleans F C F F F 44% 12% 44% B F D A+ B+ B B C B C+ C- C+ F D- 40% 30% 30% B- D F D+ F A+ B- D C
0.98 56% 29% 12% -17 +1 0.72 31% 1.4 .44 13% .40 73% .29 1.04 58% 36% 43% +3 -1 1.06 43% 1.1 .46 25% .34 79% .27
Nov
6		 St. Francis (PA) B+ A- A+ B B 35% 9% 56% C+ B A+ C+ A+ D+ A A+ A+ A B+ A D B- 46% 21% 33% D- C+ A+ D+ A B- A+ F A+
1.34 74% 60% 39% +11 +1 1.27 47% 1.2 .56 19% .45 86% .38 0.81 50% 25% 37% -5 0 0.93 13% 1.0 .13 21% .10 83% .08
Nov
10		 Lamar B C C+ A B 44% 18% 38% B- B A A+ A+ D- A D+ B+ C+ B- C- F D- 24% 49% 27% A+ C- B B- B D C+ B B-
1.21 60% 38% 41% +5 +1 1.13 42% 1.3 .55 20% .47 67% .31 1.01 50% 40% 43% +3 -5 0.98 30% 0.9 .27 14% .22 67% .14
Nov
14		 Michigan C C F+ B- B 33% 28% 39% B- B+ C F D- B+ B D- C+ A+ A- A+ A A+ 55% 14% 32% C+ A+ F A+ B- A+ D F+ F+
0.90 50% 27% 33% -6 -1 0.87 26% 0.6 .15 16% .26 67% .17 0.96 54% 17% 29% -8 +2 0.91 54% 0.9 .50 32% .42 80% .33
Nov
19		 UMKC C- F F A+ F+ 41% 20% 39% C- F+ B B+ A- D+ C- A+ B A+ A+ A+ A A+ 28% 11% 61% F A+ C B+ B- A+ F B F+
1.14 43% 20% 45% -3 0 0.96 41% 1.2 .49 18% .26 87% .22 0.63 23% 0% 25% -22 +1 0.59 27% 0.8 .20 25% .36 63% .23
Nov
27		 Florida A A+ B- F A- 37% 35% 29% C- B+ B+ A+ A+ A A+ B- A+ A+ C- F A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% D+ A+ A+ F F A+ F F F
1.10 74% 39% 20% 0 -2 0.98 28% 1.3 .34 12% .49 73% .36 1.05 65% 50% 20% -8 +2 0.91 33% 1.9 .63 25% .47 81% .38
Nov
28		 Wisconsin C- D+ F+ A+ A- 47% 27% 25% B- A- C- F F+ D+ C F D+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 29% 20% 51% A A+ A+ C+ A A+ C+ F D+
1.00 50% 33% 57% +4 0 1.09 23% 0.5 .11 18% .26 63% .16 0.85 40% 50% 23% -11 -1 0.78 22% 1.1 .24 23% .32 89% .28
Dec
5		 Notre Dame B A+ F A- A- 37% 18% 46% B A- F A+ B A B+ F C+ D+ F F F F 27% 29% 45% A- F A A+ A+ B C- A+ A
1.14 71% 20% 38% +5 0 1.12 15% 2.0 .30 11% .34 65% .22 1.16 73% 50% 48% +17 -2 1.32 26% 0.6 .16 19% .33 45% .15
Dec
7		 North Texas C- C+ A F D+ 40% 30% 30% D+ D+ B A A D- A- F+ B- A+ B- A+ A+ A 59% 14% 27% F+ B+ A+ F A- B+ B- C B-
0.97 59% 46% 15% -6 -1 0.88 38% 1.2 .47 25% .44 64% .28 0.82 54% 17% 17% -13 +2 0.82 14% 1.8 .24 21% .32 71% .23
Dec
15		 Incarnate Word D- A- F F F 44% 24% 31% D F D+ A+ A- B+ A- C- B+ B- C+ A+ F D 43% 18% 39% F+ D- A+ C- A- B+ A A+ A+
1.08 70% 27% 14% -7 0 0.89 29% 1.7 .48 12% .45 72% .32 1.01 52% 22% 47% +2 +1 1.08 23% 1.0 .23 19% .17 56% .10
Dec
18		 Oral Roberts C+ C D- F D 62% 13% 24% B+ D+ A+ C A+ B- A D B+ B B- A F F+ 41% 16% 43% C- F+ C- A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+
1.20 57% 33% 27% -4 +3 1.00 47% 1.1 .53 13% .40 67% .27 0.88 50% 29% 42% 0 +1 1.05 28% 0.2 .06 23% .17 63% .11
Dec
21		 Florida A&M B B+ F B- D+ 36% 16% 48% C D+ A C- B+ B- A- A+ A+ B+ A F C+ D- 32% 34% 34% A D+ A+ A+ A+ F B- A+ A
1.23 67% 13% 38% +2 0 1.06 42% 0.9 .39 17% .41 86% .35 0.86 47% 56% 31% +1 -2 1.00 13% 0.5 .06 15% .27 47% .13
Dec
29		 Jackson St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 15% 43% C+ A+ D+ C- D+ A F A+ F A- A+ D- D- C+ 30% 32% 38% B C+ C F F+ A- C+ A+ B
1.56 88% 56% 50% +26 +1 1.56 33% 1.0 .33 11% .18 100% .18 0.87 27% 44% 37% -6 -2 0.86 26% 1.3 .34 23% .26 67% .18
Jan
3		 Baylor C+ F D+ A- D- 41% 22% 37% A+ D+ A+ F B- C A+ F A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 43% 17% 39% F A+ B- A A- B C- D- D+
1.07 40% 36% 39% -5 0 0.92 48% 0.7 .33 17% .43 65% .28 0.98 45% 50% 22% -11 +1 0.83 35% 0.9 .32 17% .34 78% .26
Jan
6		 Kansas A+ C A+ A+ A+ 27% 24% 48% C- A+ A A+ A+ F+ A+ D A C+ B D- F C- 42% 25% 33% C C- A F B- C+ F B- F
1.16 53% 47% 43% +7 -1 1.15 36% 1.3 .44 19% .34 63% .21 1.21 57% 43% 44% +6 0 1.13 25% 1.4 .36 15% .55 75% .41
Jan
10		 Arizona B- D+ A- F C 45% 18% 37% A+ B- C A+ A- B+ A+ B- A+ B A F F A- 56% 23% 21% F B A+ F B- C- A+ C A+
0.98 48% 44% 26% -8 +1 0.88 22% 1.4 .31 16% .39 71% .27 1.16 53% 54% 42% +3 +1 1.11 29% 1.2 .35 13% .23 73% .17
Jan
14		 BYU C+ A+ F C- B- 20% 33% 46% D+ C+ C- B- C A A- D+ B A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 25% 37% 38% A+ A+ F+ B- D C- F D F
1.00 82% 22% 32% -2 -3 0.93 23% 1.2 .28 13% .30 67% .20 1.09 54% 26% 15% -16 -3 0.63 44% 1.1 .50 13% .48 79% .38
Jan
17		 Utah B+ A D- F A- 61% 18% 22% A- A- C- F D- A- A+ C A C- D- D- D- D- 36% 18% 46% C+ D F B+ D+ B+ F A+ C-
1.15 71% 33% 27% +5 +2 1.16 28% 0.7 .19 12% .36 68% .25 1.20 67% 44% 39% +8 0 1.18 40% 0.9 .34 19% .40 59% .23
Jan
20		 Oklahoma St. D A- F F C+ 51% 14% 35% B+ B- A- F C D D- F F A+ A A+ F A+ 66% 11% 23% F+ A C D C- A A+ A+ A+
1.00 65% 29% 28% -1 +2 1.04 36% 0.8 .31 21% .22 50% .11 0.95 46% 17% 42% -8 +3 0.92 32% 1.1 .34 21% .18 50% .09
Jan
24		 Baylor A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 8% 66% 26% F A- F A+ C- B+ A+ A A+ B+ F F D+ F 11% 43% 47% A+ D- D+ B C+ A+ F C+ F
1.22 100% 45% 46% +13 -8 1.12 19% 1.3 .26 14% .63 81% .51 1.14 100% 60% 36% +15 -5 1.23 40% 1.0 .40 23% .59 72% .42
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Houston C+ A- A- F+ A+ 52% 25% 23% B+ A+ D F D- A+ A+ D A- B+ B F F+ D 26% 32% 43% C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A- F F F
1.00 64% 42% 27% +2 0 1.06 22% 0.7 .16 17% .43 64% .28 1.13 58% 53% 40% +9 -2 1.15 21% 0.5 .10 16% .41 92% .37
Feb
1		 Colorado D- F+ D+ F F 34% 28% 38% D+ F+ B+ F D- B- C A+ B F+ D B F F+ 40% 26% 34% B D- D+ F F D+ A+ A+ A+
0.92 47% 36% 26% -9 -1 0.82 33% 0.6 .20 15% .30 82% .25 1.32 67% 36% 50% +11 -1 1.23 34% 1.5 .53 12% .22 46% .10
Feb
7		 Kansas St. B+ C A+ C B 47% 12% 42% A- B+ A+ D+ A+ C+ A+ F A+ C- F C- F F 27% 29% 44% A+ D A F D+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.18 55% 60% 33% +1 +2 1.07 50% 1.1 .56 18% .62 61% .38 1.15 80% 38% 42% +11 -2 1.20 26% 1.5 .39 17% .13 63% .08
Feb
10		 Iowa St. D+ F C+ C- D- 48% 17% 35% A D+ B A+ A C+ A+ D- A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 45% 10% 45% F+ A+ A+ D A A+ A+ A+ A+
0.91 41% 38% 31% -10 +1 0.85 31% 1.3 .41 22% .43 65% .28 0.80 68% 0% 18% -10 +2 0.86 26% 1.2 .31 25% .16 25% .04
Feb
14		 Oklahoma St. A+ D- F A+ B- 51% 9% 40% A B B+ C B A+ A+ A- A+ C- C F F F+ 51% 9% 40% D+ F+ A- A A D- C B+ B-
1.25 48% 0% 48% 0 +2 1.07 34% 1.1 .37 11% .40 78% .31 1.21 59% 60% 43% +8 +2 1.23 26% 0.8 .21 12% .34 70% .24
Feb
17		 Central Florida C- F A+ F F+ 37% 24% 39% C D- A- D+ B C+ A+ F A B B- D- F C- 43% 21% 36% D+ C- A+ A A+ B- D- F F
1.00 42% 67% 20% -7 0 0.86 33% 1.0 .33 17% .46 63% .29 1.15 57% 45% 42% +5 0 1.13 26% 1.0 .26 17% .34 90% .30
Feb
21		 West Virginia C F F A+ D 38% 26% 36% C- D A+ F B+ C- A+ F+ A+ A+ C C A A- 41% 12% 46% D+ B+ C+ A+ A- A+ B+ F B-
1.00 33% 20% 43% -9 -1 0.82 50% 0.7 .34 20% .56 67% .37 0.90 59% 40% 26% -5 +1 0.95 31% 0.9 .28 27% .27 75% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.3 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 1.6 5th
6th 0.2 6.4 1.8 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 8.7 15.3 0.2 24.3 7th
8th 2.8 21.9 3.5 28.2 8th
9th 0.3 11.1 8.4 0.0 19.8 9th
10th 3.6 11.0 0.8 15.4 10th
11th 1.8 0.2 1.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 5.8 25.1 39.9 25.4 3.8 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 3.8% 88.8% 0.3% 88.5% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.4 88.8%
10-8 25.4% 75.8% 0.4% 75.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.4 7.6 3.6 0.0 6.1 75.7%
9-9 39.9% 60.8% 0.3% 60.5% 10.1 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.9 10.0 9.2 0.1 15.7 60.7%
8-10 25.1% 26.8% 0.1% 26.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.1 0.5 18.4 26.7%
7-11 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 5.4 5.8%
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 54.0% 0.2% 53.7% 9.9 46.0 53.8%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 6.8 41.7 37.5 20.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 93.3% 7.7 0.7 11.2 27.6 38.1 11.2 4.5
Lose Out 2.9% 0.8% 11.3 0.6 0.2