Tennessee
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.5 #16
Expected Predictive Rating +14.7 #35
Pace 67.2 #238
Improvement -0.2 #195

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #30 B+ A+ C- C+ B+
Defense #11 A A B B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #24 1.22 #113 +5.7 #26
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #278 0.79 #132 -1.5 #251
Three Pointers 38% #241 1.13 #40 +0.9 #146
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #53 +5.1 #54
Freethrows 18.6 #117 70% #247 13.1 #150
Second Chance 45.0% #1 1.17 #55 0.53 #1
Turnovers 17.3% #227
Total Offense +8.1 #30

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #251 1.04 #54 +3.5 #68
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #187 0.67 #76 +1.0 #124
Three Pointers 44% #105 0.84 #23 +2.3 #101
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #25 +6.8 #25
Freethrows 16.2 #127 66% #11 10.6 #303
Second Chance 26.8% #59 0.85 #15 0.23 #16
Turnovers 18.9% #63
Total Defense +9.5 #11

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #46 -0.2% #152
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.4% #71 -13.1% #14
Possession Length 15.9 #60 19.1 #360
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #49 0.12 #37
Improvement -1.1 #260 +0.9 #126

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.5% 2.8% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 6.7% 11.4% 4.0%
Top 4 Seed 38.3% 52.8% 30.1%
Top 6 Seed 69.8% 82.6% 62.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.6% 98.1% 92.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.9% 97.8% 91.8%
Average Seed 5.3 4.6 5.7
.500 or above 98.9% 99.8% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 84.3% 92.9% 79.5%
Conference Champion 9.9% 17.7% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four3.0% 1.0% 4.1%
First Round93.4% 97.7% 91.0%
Second Round75.2% 82.8% 71.0%
Sweet Sixteen40.1% 47.5% 36.0%
Elite Eight17.0% 20.7% 15.0%
Final Four7.3% 9.1% 6.3%
Championship Game2.8% 3.5% 2.4%
National Champion1.1% 1.6% 0.8%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 36.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 10
Quad 25 - 113 - 11
Quad 33 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 160 Mercer W 76 - 61 96%  +11  1 - 0 +12 +1 C- A+ F +11 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 174 Northern Kentucky W 95 - 56 97%  +18  2 - 0 +35 +21 A A+ A +15 A+ B B+
 Wed, Nov 12 350 North Florida W 99 - 66 99%  +15  3 - 0 +17 +7 C- A+ F +8 A+ C A
 Mon, Nov 17 245 Rice W 91 - 66 98%  +12  4 - 0 +17 +16 B+ A+ C +2 B- A+ D+
 Thu, Nov 20 219 Tennessee St. W 89 - 60 98%  +22  5 - 0 +23 +4 D+ A+ F +16 A- A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 131 Rutgers W 85 - 60 92%  +19  6 - 0 +27 +18 A A+ D- +11 A A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 11 Houston W 76 - 73 43%  -2  7 - 0 +22 +26 B+ A+ A+ -3 D- A+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 18 Kansas L 76 - 81 54%  +3  7 - 1 +12 +13 A+ A- A+ -2 A+ A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 2 69 @Syracuse L 60 - 62 72%  -2  7 - 2 +9 -5 D+ C+ F +14 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 9 Illinois L 62 - 75 39%  -4  7 - 3 +7 +6 D- A+ F -0 B- B F
 Tue, Dec 16 15 Louisville W 83 - 62 61%  +11  8 - 3 +36 +16 A+ A B +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 363 Gardner-Webb W 94 - 52 100%  +26  9 - 3 +23 +12 A- B B +11 A- A- D+
 Tue, Dec 30 357 South Carolina St. W 105 - 54 100%  +23  10 - 3 +33 +27 A+ A+ B- +7 B+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 3 19 @Arkansas L 75 - 86 42%  -1  10 - 4 0 - 1 +8 +4 B C+ D +5 A+ B+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 45 Texas W 85 - 71 81%  +11  11 - 4 1 - 1 +22 +17 A+ A+ F +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 12 @Florida L 71 - 75 36% 
 Tue, Jan 13 40 Texas A&M W 82 - 74 78% 
 Sat, Jan 17 27 Kentucky W 76 - 70 70% 
 Sat, Jan 24 13 @Alabama L 81 - 85 36% 
 Tue, Jan 27 24 @Georgia L 81 - 82 46% 
 Sat, Jan 31 33 Auburn W 80 - 73 73% 
 Tue, Feb 3 71 Mississippi W 76 - 64 88% 
 Sat, Feb 7 27 @Kentucky L 72 - 73 49% 
 Wed, Feb 11 55 @Mississippi St. W 75 - 70 68% 
 Sat, Feb 14 42 LSU W 78 - 69 79% 
 Wed, Feb 18 48 Oklahoma W 79 - 69 81% 
 Sat, Feb 21 7 @Vanderbilt L 73 - 79 30% 
 Tue, Feb 24 51 @Missouri W 76 - 72 64% 
 Sat, Feb 28 13 Alabama W 84 - 82 58% 
 Tue, Mar 3 72 @South Carolina W 74 - 67 72% 
 Sat, Mar 7 7 Vanderbilt W 77 - 76 51% 
Totals 21 - 10 11 - 7 +18 +8 B+ A+ C- +9 A A B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 2.6 0.9 0.1 9.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.3 3.0 0.5 0.0 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 6.2 3.6 0.5 0.0 12.7 3rd
4th 1.2 5.9 4.9 0.7 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.2 4.0 5.8 1.4 0.1 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 6.2 2.2 0.1 10.2 6th
7th 0.4 4.5 3.4 0.3 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 4.0 0.8 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.4 2.8 1.7 0.1 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 1.2 2.2 0.3 3.7 10th
11th 0.3 1.6 0.8 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.1 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.1 4.4 8.0 12.5 15.7 16.9 16.0 11.8 7.2 3.1 0.9 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.4% 0.9    0.8 0.1
15-3 84.7% 2.6    1.8 0.7 0.1
14-4 51.7% 3.7    1.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 17.9% 2.1    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 4.8 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 46.4% 53.6% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.9% 100.0% 37.4% 62.6% 1.9 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.1% 100.0% 27.1% 72.9% 2.4 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.2% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 3.0 0.4 1.7 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.8% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 3.5 0.2 1.2 4.2 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 16.0% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 4.2 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.0 4.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 16.9% 100.0% 9.9% 90.0% 5.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.9 5.9 4.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 15.7% 99.8% 7.2% 92.6% 5.9 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.0 4.8 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
9-9 12.5% 98.8% 5.2% 93.6% 7.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.7 3.8 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.7%
8-10 8.0% 89.6% 2.9% 86.7% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.9 0.8 0.0 0.8 89.3%
7-11 4.4% 62.0% 2.6% 59.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.1 1.7 61.0%
6-12 2.1% 25.0% 0.2% 24.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.6 24.8%
5-13 0.9% 2.3% 0.6% 1.7% 11.0 0.0 0.8 1.8%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 94.6% 11.5% 83.1% 5.3 5.4 93.9%