Tennessee
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.9#8
Expected Predictive Rating+26.7#2
Pace64.2#296
Improvement-4.8#349

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#35
First Shot+5.1#56
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#62
Layup/Dunks+3.3#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#117
Freethrows+1.1#109
Improvement-3.6#341

Defense
Total Defense+11.7#3
First Shot+10.2#4
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#59
Layups/Dunks+6.3#20
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#152
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#136
Freethrows+2.1#50
Improvement-1.3#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.6% 5.3% 1.9%
#1 Seed 25.8% 28.7% 13.7%
Top 2 Seed 59.3% 63.2% 42.5%
Top 4 Seed 93.2% 95.0% 85.8%
Top 6 Seed 98.6% 99.2% 95.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 2.4 2.3 3.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 96.4% 86.3%
Conference Champion 11.3% 13.0% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
Second Round95.1% 95.7% 92.3%
Sweet Sixteen65.1% 66.4% 59.5%
Elite Eight37.0% 38.3% 31.3%
Final Four18.3% 19.1% 14.8%
Championship Game8.5% 9.0% 6.7%
National Champion3.9% 4.3% 2.4%

Next Game: Georgia (Home) - 81.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 68 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 112 - 7
Quad 24 - 016 - 7
Quad 35 - 021 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 259   Gardner-Webb W 80-64 99%     1 - 0 +7.7 +6.1 +2.2
  Nov 09, 2024 31   @ Louisville W 77-55 62%     2 - 0 +37.7 +14.2 +24.4
  Nov 13, 2024 213   Montana W 92-57 98%     3 - 0 +29.2 +17.4 +12.6
  Nov 17, 2024 302   Austin Peay W 103-68 99%     4 - 0 +24.1 +25.5 -2.3
  Nov 21, 2024 111   Virginia W 64-42 92%     5 - 0 +25.0 +4.8 +23.7
  Nov 22, 2024 15   Baylor W 77-62 59%     6 - 0 +31.7 +22.2 +11.6
  Nov 27, 2024 291   Tennessee Martin W 78-35 99%     7 - 0 +32.9 +11.5 +27.3
  Dec 03, 2024 100   Syracuse W 96-70 94%     8 - 0 +27.3 +23.4 +3.9
  Dec 10, 2024 121   Miami (FL) W 75-62 93%     9 - 0 +15.5 +1.6 +14.4
  Dec 14, 2024 12   @ Illinois W 66-64 44%     10 - 0 +22.5 +7.9 +14.8
  Dec 17, 2024 323   Western Carolina W 84-36 99%     11 - 0 +35.5 +3.3 +30.0
  Dec 23, 2024 118   Middle Tennessee W 82-64 95%     12 - 0 +17.6 +9.2 +8.3
  Dec 31, 2024 164   Norfolk St. W 67-52 97%     13 - 0 +11.9 +2.7 +11.7
  Jan 04, 2025 38   Arkansas W 76-52 82%     14 - 0 1 - 0 +33.2 +14.4 +20.6
  Jan 07, 2025 5   @ Florida L 43-73 32%     14 - 1 1 - 1 -6.3 -17.8 +10.3
  Jan 11, 2025 35   @ Texas W 74-70 64%     15 - 1 2 - 1 +19.3 +18.1 +1.7
  Jan 15, 2025 30   Georgia W 70-61 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 51   @ Vanderbilt W 74-69 70%    
  Jan 21, 2025 23   Mississippi St. W 72-66 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 2   @ Auburn L 69-76 25%    
  Jan 28, 2025 17   Kentucky W 79-74 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 5   Florida W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 05, 2025 43   Missouri W 75-65 83%    
  Feb 08, 2025 46   @ Oklahoma W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 11, 2025 17   @ Kentucky L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 15, 2025 51   Vanderbilt W 77-66 85%    
  Feb 22, 2025 22   @ Texas A&M W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 25, 2025 67   @ LSU W 73-65 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 7   Alabama W 78-76 58%    
  Mar 05, 2025 25   @ Mississippi W 68-66 55%    
  Mar 08, 2025 76   South Carolina W 72-57 91%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.3 2.2 0.4 11.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 6.6 7.1 2.6 0.3 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.6 7.9 2.0 0.1 16.7 3rd
4th 0.4 4.7 7.8 2.3 0.1 15.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 6.6 3.0 0.2 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.7 3.4 0.3 9.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 3.3 0.6 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.0 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.5 7.7 12.0 16.4 18.1 17.8 12.6 7.1 2.5 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 88.6% 2.2    1.7 0.4 0.0
15-3 61.2% 4.3    2.0 2.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 27.4% 3.5    0.8 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 4.8% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.3% 11.3 5.0 4.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 39.0% 61.0% 1.2 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-2 2.5% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 1.2 2.0 0.4 100.0%
15-3 7.1% 100.0% 22.8% 77.2% 1.3 4.8 2.1 0.1 100.0%
14-4 12.6% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 1.5 6.8 5.0 0.8 0.0 100.0%
13-5 17.8% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 1.8 6.3 9.0 2.4 0.1 100.0%
12-6 18.1% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 2.2 3.5 8.6 5.1 0.8 0.0 100.0%
11-7 16.4% 100.0% 7.2% 92.8% 2.6 1.5 5.6 6.9 2.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.0% 100.0% 3.8% 96.2% 3.2 0.4 2.1 5.5 3.2 0.7 0.1 100.0%
9-9 7.7% 100.0% 3.2% 96.8% 3.8 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
8-10 3.5% 99.9% 1.9% 98.0% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
7-11 1.5% 99.7% 1.2% 98.5% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
6-12 0.5% 95.7% 95.7% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.7%
5-13 0.1% 83.1% 83.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.1%
4-14 0.0% 43.5% 43.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.5%
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 11.3% 88.6% 2.4 25.8 33.5 23.5 10.4 3.8 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 86.6 13.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 75.8 24.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.8 6.3