USC
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +11.3 #48
Expected Predictive Rating +14.6 #34
Pace 73.7 #58
Improvement -2.0 #273

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #71 B C+ C A+ C
Defense #36 B B C+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #83 1.31 #39 +5.3 #27
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #106 0.85 #54 +2.4 #64
Three Pointers 34% #319 1.04 #135 -3.1 #290
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #58 +4.6 #58
Freethrows 0.42 #1 73% #174 0.31 #1
Second Chance 35.1% #59 0.99 #234 0.35 #105
Turnovers 16.5% #162
Total Offense +4.8 #71

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #240 1.02 #36 +3.6 #67
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #109 0.82 #285 -1.4 #291
Three Pointers 41% #181 0.89 #34 +2.6 #77
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #46 +4.8 #47
Freethrows 0.28 #134 75% #316 0.21 #166
Second Chance 28.2% #88 0.88 #25 0.25 #40
Turnovers 17.6% #122
Total Defense +6.5 #36

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #217 -0.7% #106
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.4% #49 -8.8% #40
Possession Length 15.9 #53 17.8 #271
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #132 0.16 #145
Improvement -4.0 #343 +2.0 #74

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.5% 2.5% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.2% 69.1% 46.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.1% 69.0% 46.3%
Average Seed 9.5 9.2 9.8
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 36.7% 52.4% 22.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four15.3% 14.1% 16.3%
First Round49.1% 61.5% 38.0%
Second Round18.9% 24.2% 14.2%
Sweet Sixteen3.4% 4.5% 2.3%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.3% 0.6%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana (Home) - 47.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 9
Quad 26 - 310 - 12
Quad 35 - 015 - 12
Quad 44 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 263 Cal Poly W 94 - 64 96% +12  1 - 0 +21 +1 C D C- +15 B+ A- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 327 Manhattan W 114 - 83 98% +16  2 - 0 +18 +15 D+ A+ C+ -2 C A- C-
 Fri, Nov 14 87 Illinois St. W 87 - 67 68% +12  3 - 0 +26 +20 A A- A+ +7 A+ B- C
 Thu, Nov 20 140 Troy W 107 - 106 3OT 88% +2  4 - 0 -1 +0 C- F A -1 B+ F B
 Mon, Nov 24 62 Boise St. W 70 - 67 59% +2  5 - 0 +12 +2 B C- D +10 A B A+
 Tue, Nov 25 53 Seton Hall W 83 - 81 54% -2  6 - 0 +12 +21 A+ A C -8 F A+ D
 Wed, Nov 26 77 Arizona St. W 88 - 75 64% +4  7 - 0 +21 +22 A+ A+ C+ -1 C A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 82 @Oregon W 82 - 77 56% -1  8 - 0 1 - 0 +15 +15 A+ A- F -0 D- C+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 41 Washington L 76 - 84 58% +8  8 - 1 1 - 1 +1 +4 D+ C A+ -3 B+ D- B-
 Tue, Dec 9 202 @San Diego W 94 - 81 84% +5  9 - 1 +13 +11 A+ C+ F +1 B+ C+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 122 Washington St. W 68 - 61 86% +6  10 - 1 +7 -8 F+ D- D+ +14 A A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 342 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 70 98% +10  11 - 1 +12 +13 A+ B- C -2 B F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 1 @Michigan L 66 - 96 7% -16  11 - 2 1 - 2 -2 -3 C+ D+ F +6 B+ A+ D+
 Mon, Jan 5 10 @Michigan St. L 51 - 80 14% -14  11 - 3 1 - 3 -6 -8 F+ C+ F +3 D- A+ C-
 Fri, Jan 9 76 @Minnesota W 70 - 69 OT 52% +3  12 - 3 2 - 3 +12 +8 A D- F +4 B B- C
 Tue, Jan 13 107 Maryland W 88 - 71 84% +4  13 - 3 3 - 3 +18 +19 B+ C+ A+ -1 D A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 8 Purdue L 64 - 69 26% +2  13 - 4 3 - 4 +13 -2 D A+ C- +15 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 63 Northwestern L 68 - 74 70% -1  13 - 5 3 - 5 -0 -1 D C- A+ +0 A A D-
 Sun, Jan 25 37 @Wisconsin W 73 - 71 31% +1  14 - 5 4 - 5 +19 +13 C- B+ A+ +6 A+ D+ D-
 Wed, Jan 28 21 @Iowa L 72 - 73 21% -1  14 - 6 4 - 6 +19 +11 A+ B- C +8 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 114 Rutgers W 78 - 75 85% +10  15 - 6 5 - 6 +3 +5 A+ D F -1 A- C- D-
 Tue, Feb 3 30 Indiana L 77 - 78 47%
 Sun, Feb 8 112 @Penn St. W 82 - 77 67%
 Wed, Feb 11 36 @Ohio St. L 76 - 81 32%
 Wed, Feb 18 7 Illinois L 74 - 81 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 82 Oregon W 79 - 71 76%
 Tue, Feb 24 35 @UCLA L 70 - 76 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 13 Nebraska L 73 - 77 35%
 Wed, Mar 4 41 @Washington L 74 - 78 37%
 Sat, Mar 7 35 UCLA W 74 - 73 52%
Totals 19 - 11 9 - 11 +11 +5 B C+ C +6 B B C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.3 2.7 2.2 0.2 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.9 4.8 0.7 7.4 8th
9th 0.8 6.7 2.9 0.1 10.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 6.0 7.7 0.5 14.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 6.1 11.8 2.8 0.0 21.1 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 8.7 14.0 6.5 0.4 31.0 12th
13th 0.3 2.1 2.7 1.1 0.0 6.3 13th
14th 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 14th
15th 0.1 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.8 4.0 11.9 21.5 25.1 19.7 11.4 4.4 1.1 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.1% 99.6% 0.4% 99.1% 6.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-8 4.4% 99.2% 99.2% 7.7 0.2 0.4 1.4 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 99.2%
11-9 11.4% 95.0% 0.6% 94.4% 8.6 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.2 4.0 1.9 0.2 0.6 94.9%
10-10 19.7% 87.5% 0.3% 87.2% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.8 5.7 6.1 2.2 2.5 87.5%
9-11 25.1% 63.3% 0.2% 63.1% 10.3 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.9 7.2 0.0 9.2 63.2%
8-12 21.5% 31.9% 0.0% 31.9% 10.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 5.3 0.4 14.7 31.9%
7-13 11.9% 6.0% 6.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 11.2 6.0%
6-14 4.0% 0.5% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.5%
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 57.2% 0.2% 57.0% 9.5 42.8 57.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%