USC
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.0 #46
Expected Predictive Rating +16.9 #19
Pace 74.4 #53
Improvement -4.6 #356

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #60 A- C+ C- A+ C
Defense #55 C+ B B- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #99 1.29 #58 +4.6 #47
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #105 0.83 #80 +2.4 #68
Three Pointers 34% #311 1.16 #22 -0.8 #214
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #40 +6.2 #39
Freethrows 25.4 #1 75% #123 18.9 #1
Second Chance 34.1% #85 1.04 #187 0.36 #107
Turnovers 17.6% #244
Total Offense +5.9 #60

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #219 1.07 #79 +2.3 #99
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #169 0.93 #354 -2.0 #319
Three Pointers 42% #162 0.91 #64 +1.7 #118
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #110 +2.1 #111
Freethrows 15.7 #107 73% #218 11.5 #244
Second Chance 31.0% #195 0.87 #19 0.27 #63
Turnovers 17.9% #100
Total Defense +5.1 #55

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #223 -0.3% #144
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.6% #24 -3.8% #108
Possession Length 16.0 #66 17.9 #294
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #135 0.17 #168
Improvement -4.3 #357 -0.2 #209

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 1.7% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 10.3% 11.6% 3.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.9% 66.3% 46.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.8% 66.2% 46.6%
Average Seed 8.5 8.4 9.0
.500 or above 98.9% 99.4% 96.3%
.500 or above in Conference 44.5% 49.1% 22.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 1.7%
First Four10.3% 10.1% 11.4%
First Round57.1% 60.5% 40.7%
Second Round26.1% 28.0% 17.1%
Sweet Sixteen5.7% 6.2% 3.2%
Elite Eight1.7% 1.8% 0.9%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland (Home) - 82.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 25 - 9
Quad 26 - 211 - 11
Quad 35 - 116 - 12
Quad 44 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 253 Cal Poly W 94 - 64 95%  +12  1 - 0 +22 +3 B- D D +14 A- A- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 311 Manhattan W 114 - 83 97%  +16  2 - 0 +19 +16 C- A+ C+ -2 C+ B+ D
 Fri, Nov 14 85 Illinois St. W 87 - 67 66%  +12  3 - 0 +27 +19 A+ A+ A+ +8 A+ C- C+
 Thu, Nov 20 137 Troy W 107 - 106 3OT 88%  +2  4 - 0 -1 +1 C F A+ -2 B+ F B+
 Mon, Nov 24 63 Boise St. W 70 - 67 58%  +2  5 - 0 +12 +4 A- C+ F +8 A+ C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 53 Seton Hall W 83 - 81 54%  -2  6 - 0 +12 +20 A+ A+ C -8 F A+ D
 Wed, Nov 26 88 Arizona St. W 88 - 75 67%  +4  7 - 0 +20 +22 A+ A+ B- -2 C- A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 2 65 @Oregon W 82 - 77 47%  -1  8 - 0 1 - 0 +17 +16 A+ A- F +1 D- B A-
 Sat, Dec 6 47 Washington L 76 - 84 62%  +8  8 - 1 1 - 1 -0 +3 D- C A+ -3 B D- B
 Tue, Dec 9 222 @San Diego W 94 - 81 85%  +5  9 - 1 +13 +11 A+ C F +0 B+ C C
 Sun, Dec 14 145 Washington St. W 68 - 61 89%  +6  10 - 1 +5 -6 F D- D +11 B+ A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 315 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 70 97%  +10  11 - 1 +15 +15 A+ B C -2 B- F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 1 @Michigan L 66 - 96 5%  -16  11 - 2 1 - 2 -0 -1 B- C+ F +5 A A+ C
 Mon, Jan 5 14 @Michigan St. L 51 - 80 17%  -14  11 - 3 1 - 3 -8 -9 F C+ F +1 F A+ C
 Fri, Jan 9 76 @Minnesota W 70 - 69 OT 52%  +3  12 - 3 2 - 3 +12 +8 A+ D- F +4 B C+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 107 Maryland W 81 - 71 83% 
 Sat, Jan 17 4 Purdue L 72 - 81 21% 
 Wed, Jan 21 60 Northwestern W 80 - 75 68% 
 Sun, Jan 25 43 @Wisconsin L 78 - 82 37% 
 Wed, Jan 28 20 @Iowa L 69 - 77 23% 
 Sat, Jan 31 131 Rutgers W 81 - 69 88% 
 Tue, Feb 3 25 Indiana L 78 - 79 45% 
 Sun, Feb 8 105 @Penn St. W 80 - 76 63% 
 Wed, Feb 11 30 @Ohio St. L 76 - 82 29% 
 Wed, Feb 18 9 Illinois L 75 - 81 28% 
 Sat, Feb 21 65 Oregon W 80 - 75 69% 
 Tue, Feb 24 38 @UCLA L 73 - 78 32% 
 Sat, Feb 28 23 Nebraska L 75 - 77 45% 
 Wed, Mar 4 47 @Washington L 76 - 79 40% 
 Sat, Mar 7 38 UCLA W 76 - 75 54% 
Totals 19 - 11 9 - 11 +11 +6 A- C+ C- +5 C+ B B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.3 4th
5th 0.3 1.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 3.4 1.0 0.1 6.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.5 2.2 0.2 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.6 4.4 0.6 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.3 3.4 6.4 1.6 0.0 11.7 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 6.5 3.6 0.3 0.0 12.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 5.5 5.6 0.8 0.0 12.9 11th
12th 0.3 3.6 6.0 1.6 0.0 11.5 12th
13th 0.1 1.7 4.9 2.0 0.1 8.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.5 14th
15th 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.2 2.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 16th
17th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 6.4 11.5 15.9 18.0 16.7 13.0 8.2 4.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0%
15-5 1.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.6% 100.0% 3.6% 96.4% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.8% 100.0% 2.2% 97.8% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 4.2% 99.9% 1.4% 98.4% 6.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 8.2% 99.3% 0.6% 98.8% 6.9 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 99.3%
11-9 13.0% 96.6% 0.3% 96.3% 7.8 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 4.3 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.4 96.6%
10-10 16.7% 91.5% 0.2% 91.3% 8.8 0.0 0.4 1.4 4.1 5.2 3.4 0.7 1.4 91.5%
9-11 18.0% 69.8% 0.2% 69.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 5.2 3.3 0.0 5.4 69.7%
8-12 15.9% 39.7% 39.7% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.1 0.1 9.6 39.7%
7-13 11.5% 11.9% 11.9% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.1 10.1 11.9%
6-14 6.4% 1.3% 1.3% 11.2 0.1 0.0 6.3 1.3%
5-15 2.8% 2.8
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 62.9% 0.3% 62.6% 8.5 37.1 62.8%