USC
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.5#61
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#70
Pace69.9#123
Improvement+1.5#133

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#38
First Shot+10.4#6
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#336
Layup/Dunks+5.7#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#244
Freethrows+3.2#31
Improvement+3.8#29

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#101
First Shot+1.0#145
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#73
Layups/Dunks-1.0#214
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#78
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#125
Freethrows-0.7#238
Improvement-2.3#291
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 3.9% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 2.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.0 11.0 n/a
.500 or above 21.9% 100.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 2.2% 0.0%
First Round0.6% 2.6% 0.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 63 - 13
Quad 24 - 27 - 15
Quad 33 - 210 - 17
Quad 46 - 016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 117   Chattanooga W 77-51 81%     1 - 0 +26.2 +4.5 +23.2
  Nov 07, 2024 215   Idaho St. W 75-69 91%     2 - 0 +0.3 +2.1 -1.5
  Nov 13, 2024 226   Texas Arlington W 98-95 92%     3 - 0 -3.2 +8.2 -11.8
  Nov 17, 2024 106   California L 66-71 79%     3 - 1 -3.9 -3.6 -0.6
  Nov 20, 2024 152   San Jose St. W 82-68 86%     4 - 1 +11.7 +15.2 -2.1
  Nov 24, 2024 328   Grambling St. W 80-69 97%     5 - 1 -2.1 +6.9 -8.5
  Nov 28, 2024 27   St. Mary's L 36-71 31%     5 - 2 -20.3 -22.5 -2.5
  Nov 29, 2024 41   New Mexico L 73-83 38%     5 - 3 +2.7 +6.4 -3.5
  Dec 04, 2024 35   Oregon L 60-68 44%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +2.9 -6.1 +8.8
  Dec 07, 2024 105   @ Washington W 85-61 61%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +30.7 +16.5 +14.5
  Dec 15, 2024 188   Montana St. W 89-63 90%     7 - 4 +21.7 +7.8 +12.0
  Dec 18, 2024 115   Cal St. Northridge W 90-69 80%     8 - 4 +21.7 +15.0 +6.1
  Dec 22, 2024 240   Southern W 82-51 93%     9 - 4 +23.9 +4.7 +17.6
  Jan 04, 2025 31   Michigan L 74-85 42%     9 - 5 1 - 2 +0.4 +6.0 -5.3
  Jan 08, 2025 43   @ Indiana L 69-82 31%     9 - 6 1 - 3 +1.6 +2.9 -1.1
  Jan 11, 2025 17   @ Illinois W 82-72 17%     10 - 6 2 - 3 +29.6 +10.6 +18.2
  Jan 14, 2025 60   Iowa W 99-89 60%     11 - 6 3 - 3 +16.9 +21.3 -4.8
  Jan 18, 2025 15   Wisconsin L 69-84 31%     11 - 7 3 - 4 -0.4 +1.8 -2.3
  Jan 22, 2025 57   @ Nebraska W 78-73 37%     12 - 7 4 - 4 +17.8 +14.0 +3.9
  Jan 27, 2025 24   UCLA L 76-82 37%     12 - 8 4 - 5 +6.9 +16.2 -9.8
  Feb 01, 2025 8   Michigan St. W 70-64 24%     13 - 8 5 - 5 +22.8 +10.0 +13.0
  Feb 04, 2025 49   @ Northwestern L 75-77 34%     13 - 9 5 - 6 +11.8 +19.1 -7.5
  Feb 07, 2025 16   @ Purdue L 72-90 16%     13 - 10 5 - 7 +2.0 +2.5 +0.2
  Feb 11, 2025 58   Penn St. W 92-67 59%     14 - 10 6 - 7 +32.1 +23.9 +8.7
  Feb 15, 2025 84   Minnesota L 66-69 71%     14 - 11 6 - 8 +0.7 +1.9 -1.5
  Feb 20, 2025 11   @ Maryland L 71-88 14%     14 - 12 6 - 9 +4.0 +6.5 -1.6
  Feb 23, 2025 65   @ Rutgers L 85-95 44%     14 - 13 6 - 10 +1.0 +15.4 -14.3
  Feb 26, 2025 39   Ohio St. L 82-87 47%     14 - 14 6 - 11 +5.1 +16.4 -11.4
  Mar 01, 2025 35   @ Oregon L 61-82 25%     14 - 15 6 - 12 -4.6 -3.5 -1.2
  Mar 05, 2025 105   Washington W 92-61 78%     15 - 15 7 - 12 +32.2 +23.5 +10.0
  Mar 08, 2025 24   @ UCLA L 63-90 20%     15 - 16 7 - 13 -8.6 +0.6 -9.5
  Mar 12, 2025 65   Rutgers W 97-89 2OT 55%     16 - 16 +16.3 +9.4 +5.5
  Mar 13, 2025 16   Purdue L 73-81 23%    
Projected Record 16 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 100.0 100.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13 100.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 99.2 0.5%
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 99.2 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.6 5.6 33.3 58.3 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2% 25.8% 11.4 14.5 11.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.3% 3.2% 11.3 2.3 0.9
Lose Out 78.1%