USC
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#54
Expected Predictive Rating+9.8#56
Pace69.7#138
Improvement+6.2#8

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#48
First Shot+9.2#11
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#340
Layup/Dunks+5.3#26
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#252
Freethrows+3.0#32
Improvement+4.5#9

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#70
First Shot+2.5#96
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#61
Layups/Dunks-0.3#173
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#66
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#112
Freethrows-0.4#212
Improvement+1.6#101
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.9% 43.2% 21.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.5% 42.6% 20.9%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 10.0
.500 or above 86.7% 96.1% 80.5%
.500 or above in Conference 43.6% 62.9% 31.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.1% 1.9%
First Four10.3% 12.5% 9.0%
First Round24.2% 36.1% 16.5%
Second Round9.3% 13.8% 6.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 3.0% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.6% 1.1% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern (Away) - 39.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 55 - 10
Quad 23 - 38 - 13
Quad 34 - 113 - 15
Quad 45 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 138   Chattanooga W 77-51 85%     1 - 0 +24.9 +5.7 +20.7
  Nov 07, 2024 234   Idaho St. W 75-69 93%     2 - 0 -0.7 +1.9 -2.3
  Nov 13, 2024 200   Texas Arlington W 98-95 90%     3 - 0 -1.3 +8.9 -10.6
  Nov 17, 2024 116   California L 66-71 82%     3 - 1 -4.6 -4.6 -0.4
  Nov 20, 2024 146   San Jose St. W 82-68 85%     4 - 1 +12.6 +15.0 -1.0
  Nov 24, 2024 339   Grambling St. W 80-69 98%     5 - 1 -3.1 +5.6 -8.3
  Nov 28, 2024 31   St. Mary's L 36-71 34%     5 - 2 -20.9 -24.2 -1.3
  Nov 29, 2024 40   New Mexico L 73-83 43%     5 - 3 +1.9 +5.7 -3.6
  Dec 04, 2024 45   Oregon L 60-68 53%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +1.1 -7.3 +8.2
  Dec 07, 2024 89   @ Washington W 85-61 55%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +32.7 +19.1 +14.0
  Dec 15, 2024 189   Montana St. W 89-63 90%     7 - 4 +22.2 +7.6 +12.7
  Dec 18, 2024 127   Cal St. Northridge W 90-69 83%     8 - 4 +20.6 +15.6 +4.4
  Dec 22, 2024 224   Southern W 82-51 92%     9 - 4 +25.1 +5.3 +18.1
  Jan 04, 2025 18   Michigan L 74-85 36%     9 - 5 1 - 2 +2.6 +5.6 -2.7
  Jan 08, 2025 53   @ Indiana L 69-82 40%     9 - 6 1 - 3 -0.4 +0.8 -1.0
  Jan 11, 2025 13   @ Illinois W 82-72 18%     10 - 6 2 - 3 +29.7 +12.2 +16.6
  Jan 14, 2025 60   Iowa W 99-89 62%     11 - 6 3 - 3 +16.9 +21.7 -5.2
  Jan 18, 2025 17   Wisconsin L 69-84 34%     11 - 7 3 - 4 -0.9 +1.0 -2.0
  Jan 22, 2025 48   @ Nebraska W 78-73 38%     12 - 7 4 - 4 +18.1 +14.8 +3.4
  Jan 27, 2025 29   UCLA L 76-82 43%     12 - 8 4 - 5 +5.8 +15.9 -10.6
  Feb 01, 2025 15   Michigan St. W 70-64 33%     13 - 8 5 - 5 +20.4 +7.6 +13.0
  Feb 04, 2025 56   @ Northwestern L 69-71 39%    
  Feb 07, 2025 9   @ Purdue L 69-79 15%    
  Feb 11, 2025 50   Penn St. W 79-77 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 92   Minnesota W 72-66 74%    
  Feb 20, 2025 16   @ Maryland L 71-80 18%    
  Feb 23, 2025 63   @ Rutgers L 75-76 43%    
  Feb 26, 2025 25   Ohio St. L 73-75 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 45   @ Oregon L 73-77 34%    
  Mar 05, 2025 89   Washington W 77-71 73%    
  Mar 08, 2025 29   @ UCLA L 67-74 25%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.5 2.1 0.6 3.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 2.1 0.1 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 2.2 5.4 1.1 8.7 7th
8th 1.0 7.7 4.0 0.2 12.9 8th
9th 0.2 6.4 9.0 0.9 16.4 9th
10th 2.1 9.8 2.6 0.0 14.6 10th
11th 0.2 5.8 5.6 0.2 11.8 11th
12th 1.1 6.5 1.2 8.9 12th
13th 0.1 3.1 3.3 0.1 6.6 13th
14th 0.3 3.8 0.7 4.8 14th
15th 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.1 2.6 15th
16th 0.1 1.3 0.3 1.6 16th
17th 0.2 0.5 0.7 17th
18th 0.3 0.0 0.3 18th
Total 0.6 3.1 9.9 18.8 24.1 21.9 13.2 6.1 2.1 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 13.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.3% 100.0% 3.3% 96.7% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 2.1% 94.3% 2.9% 91.4% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 94.1%
12-8 6.1% 87.0% 2.1% 84.9% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.2 0.8 86.8%
11-9 13.2% 68.2% 1.1% 67.1% 9.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 3.6 1.7 0.0 4.2 67.8%
10-10 21.9% 43.3% 0.8% 42.4% 10.3 0.1 0.4 0.9 3.1 4.8 0.2 12.4 42.8%
9-11 24.1% 14.5% 0.3% 14.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 0.3 20.6 14.3%
8-12 18.8% 1.9% 0.2% 1.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 18.4 1.7%
7-13 9.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 9.9 0.1%
6-14 3.1% 3.1
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 29.9% 0.7% 29.3% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.6 5.9 8.8 9.5 0.6 70.1 29.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%