USC
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.9 56
Results Rating +13.0 45
Pace 75.4 26
Improvement -4.9 344

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 91 B- B- C A+ C-
Defense B+ 37 B B C+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 84 B 63% 69 +4.2 47
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 79 B- 42% 60 +2.3 63
Three Pointers 34% 324 C+ 35% 130 -3.2 290
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.2 222 B +3.5 73
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 80
Second Chance B 35.7% 42 C 1.03 175 B- 0.37 67
Turnovers C 16.9% 186
Freethrows A+ 0.42 1 C 72% 189 A+ 0.31 3
Total Offense B- +3.6 91

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A- 62% 21 B- 9.0% 73
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 36% 47 C 5.4% 212
Three Pointers D- 76% 333 B 0.3% 47
Total B- 60% 90 C+ 5.2% 134

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 210 B+ 51% 33 -3.0 83
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 120 D 42% 320 +1.5 305
Three Pointers 40% 209 B+ 30% 36 -2.7 65
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 124 B -3.9 45
1st FG Attempt B 0.94 50
Second Chance B- 27.9% 79 B+ 0.91 34 B 0.25 41
Turnovers C+ 18.0% 111
Freethrows C+ 0.29 134 D- 76% 334 C 0.22 173
Total Defense B+ +6.3 37

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 105 A 19.7% 11
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 134 C+ 6.1% 100
Three Pointers C 83% 153 A- 2.1% 26
Total B- 51% 86 A 9.6% 10

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.8 40 17.6 244
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 114 0.17 167
Improvement -5.5 #357 +0.5 #153

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 69 56 46
Results Rating Rank 68 47 37
Conference Record 7 - 13 8 - 12 10 - 10
Conference Finish 13 11 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 10
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24% 43% 17%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24% 43% 17%
Average Seed 10.4 10.1 10.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 12% 33% 5%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four14% 19% 12%
First Round16% 32% 11%
Second Round5% 11% 3%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 25.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 9
Quad 27 - 210 - 11
Quad 35 - 215 - 13
Quad 44 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 231 Cal Poly W 94 - 64 93% +12  97% 1 - 0 A+ +23 C- -0 C+ D C- A+ +19 A- A- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 319 Manhattan W 114 - 83 97% +16  91% 2 - 0 A +18 A +12 D+ A+ C C+ +1 C- A D+
 Fri, Nov 14 103 Illinois St. W 87 - 67 69% +12  95% 3 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +17 A A- A+ A- +8 A+ C+ C-
 Thu, Nov 20 152 Troy W 107 - 106 3OT 88% +2  60% 4 - 0 C- -2 D+ -3 C- F A- C+ +1 B F B+
 Mon, Nov 24 64 Boise St. W 70 - 67 55% +2  64% 5 - 0 B+ +12 C- -2 B D+ D- A+ +14 A+ B- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 54 Seton Hall W 83 - 81 50% -2  37% 6 - 0 B+ +12 A+ +19 A+ A C+ D- -7 F A+ D-
 Wed, Nov 26 60 Arizona St. W 88 - 75 54% +4  76% 7 - 0 A +22 A+ +21 A+ A+ B+ C+ +1 D+ A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 89 @Oregon W 82 - 77 52% -1  46% 8 - 0 1 - 0 B+ +14 A +13 A A F C+ +1 D- C+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 48 Washington L 76 - 84 56% +8  84% 8 - 1 1 - 1 C +0 C +1 D C A C -1 A- D- B-
 Tue, Dec 9 226 @San Diego W 94 - 81 84% +5  59% 9 - 1 B+ +12 B +7 A+ B- F B +4 A- C+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 126 Washington St. W 68 - 61 83% +6  98% 10 - 1 B- +7 F -11 F D- C- A+ +17 A A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 334 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 70 98% +10  69% 11 - 1 B+ +13 A- +10 A+ B- C+ C+ +1 B+ F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 1 @Michigan L 66 - 96 4% -16  0% 11 - 2 1 - 2 C -0 D -5 C+ D+ F A +9 A- A+ D+
 Mon, Jan 5 10 @Michigan St. L 51 - 80 12% -14  13% 11 - 3 1 - 3 D+ -7 F -12 F+ C+ F B+ +6 D- A+ C
 Fri, Jan 9 59 @Minnesota W 70 - 69 OT 42% +3  68% 12 - 3 2 - 3 B+ +13 B +6 A F+ F A- +7 B+ B- C
 Tue, Jan 13 104 Maryland W 88 - 71 79% +4  69% 13 - 3 3 - 3 A +18 A+ +16 A- C+ A+ B- +3 D+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 7 Purdue L 64 - 69 21% +2  53% 13 - 4 3 - 4 B+ +13 D -4 D A+ C- A+ +18 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 69 Northwestern L 68 - 74 67% -1  31% 13 - 5 3 - 5 C -1 D+ -3 D- C- A+ B- +2 A A- D-
 Sun, Jan 25 30 @Wisconsin W 73 - 71 22% +1  58% 14 - 5 4 - 5 A +20 A- +11 C- B+ A+ A +9 A+ C- D-
 Wed, Jan 28 26 @Iowa L 72 - 73 20% -1  51% 14 - 6 4 - 6 A- +18 B +7 A B- C A +10 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 111 Rutgers W 78 - 75 82% +10  91% 15 - 6 5 - 6 C+ +3 C +2 A+ D F C+ +2 A D+ F+
 Tue, Feb 3 38 Indiana W 81 - 75 47% +5  87% 16 - 6 6 - 6 A- +17 B +6 A A+ F A +10 A- A+ C
 Sun, Feb 8 115 @Penn St. W 77 - 75 65% -1  46% 17 - 6 7 - 6 B- +8 C- -0 D- A+ D+ A +8 D+ B+ A+
 Wed, Feb 11 36 @Ohio St. L 82 - 89 24% +0  48% 17 - 7 7 - 7 B +10 B+ +8 C+ B+ A- B- +2 C- A+ C+
 Wed, Feb 18 5 Illinois L 65 - 101 18% -21  0% 17 - 8 7 - 8 F+ -16 D -6 C- B+ F F+ -10 D- D+ C
 Sat, Feb 21 89 Oregon L 70 - 71 74% +1  52% 17 - 9 7 - 9 C+ +2 D+ -3 D- B+ B- B+ +6 B+ D A-
 Tue, Feb 24 37 @UCLA L 72 - 79 26%
 Sat, Feb 28 13 Nebraska L 71 - 77 28%
 Wed, Mar 4 48 @Washington L 74 - 78 34%
 Sat, Mar 7 37 UCLA L 75 - 76 47%
Totals 18 - 12 8 - 12 +10 B- +4 B- B C- B+ +6 C+ C A+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B B- C+ B 42% 47% 34% C- B- B C B- C A+ C A+ B+ B+ D B+ B 38% 22% 40% C+ B B- B+ B C+ C+ D- C
1.14 63% 42% 35% +4 0 1.09 36% 1.0 .37 17% .42 72% .31 1.00 51% 42% 30% -4 0 0.94 28% 0.9 .25 18% .29 76% .32
Nov
3		 Cal Poly C- C F B C 46% 9% 44% B+ C+ B F D C- A+ D- A+ A+ A+ F B+ A+ 48% 4% 48% F+ A- D- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+
1.13 60% 20% 38% +2 +2 1.09 36% 0.8 .28 17% .58 68% .39 0.77 44% 50% 30% -9 +3 0.89 35% 0.6 .21 27% .20 58% .12
Nov
9		 Manhattan A B F B D 48% 23% 30% C D+ A+ B+ A+ C A+ C A+ C+ A- F B C 42% 19% 38% D- C- B- A+ A D+ F C- F
1.39 66% 21% 39% +2 0 1.07 52% 1.3 .65 15% .46 75% .34 1.01 45% 60% 30% -3 0 0.96 24% 0.7 .17 15% .51 81% .41
Nov
14		 Illinois St. A+ A A+ D- A 42% 24% 34% B A B A A- A+ A+ D A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ 33% 18% 49% C A+ F A+ C+ C- B+ F C-
1.26 71% 50% 29% +6 0 1.14 31% 1.2 .38 6% .54 66% .35 0.97 44% 60% 22% -9 0 0.84 40% 0.7 .28 16% .22 92% .21
Nov
20		 Troy D+ C A- D C 37% 24% 39% C- C- F B F A- A+ B A+ C+ B- A B B+ 47% 16% 37% C+ B F D+ F B+ F C+ F
1.06 56% 50% 31% 0 0 1.01 16% 1.1 .18 13% .52 74% .39 1.05 52% 27% 31% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .46 20% .43 71% .31
Nov
24		 Boise St. C- F B- A+ B 30% 28% 42% D+ B C+ F D+ D- B- D- C+ A+ A- F A+ A+ 50% 10% 40% D- A+ C B B- A+ A+ F A+
1.01 40% 43% 48% +5 -2 1.08 23% 0.9 .19 19% .30 65% .19 0.96 50% 60% 24% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.9 .31 22% .20 91% .18
Nov
25		 Seton Hall A+ B+ F+ A+ A+ 50% 28% 23% C- A+ A B A C+ A+ A+ A+ D- D- F D F 43% 31% 26% A- F A+ A A+ D- B B+ B+
1.20 60% 27% 56% +5 0 1.13 41% 1.0 .41 23% .71 82% .58 1.17 65% 65% 36% +12 -1 1.24 17% 0.8 .14 13% .30 67% .20
Nov
26		 Arizona St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 28% 30% 43% D- A+ A+ C+ A+ B+ B F C- C+ D A+ D C- 40% 12% 49% D- D+ C+ A+ A+ B- F F F
1.33 85% 64% 45% +22 -2 1.43 50% 1.1 .54 18% .33 61% .20 1.13 65% 20% 38% +4 +1 1.12 31% 0.7 .21 17% .49 85% .42
Dec
2		 Oregon A B- A+ C A+ 37% 24% 39% B- A A+ C- A F A+ D A+ C+ A F F D- 40% 13% 47% C- D- B D+ C+ B+ F A F
1.20 59% 73% 33% +8 -1 1.17 45% 0.9 .39 22% .47 72% .34 1.12 44% 67% 43% +5 +1 1.13 32% 1.2 .39 20% .48 65% .31
Dec
6		 Washington C F F B- D 31% 31% 38% C- D D+ B C A A+ A+ A+ C C+ B- A- A- 40% 32% 28% C+ A- D+ D D- B- F D F
1.04 44% 25% 35% -8 -2 0.83 23% 1.1 .25 11% .43 86% .37 1.15 60% 38% 29% -2 -1 0.96 39% 1.2 .47 16% .41 80% .33
Dec
9		 San Diego B C+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 21% 35% C A+ F A+ B- F A+ B+ A+ B A+ F A- A 32% 21% 47% C A- C- B- C+ C F F F
1.20 63% 56% 60% +20 0 1.42 24% 1.7 .40 27% .61 77% .47 1.03 39% 58% 30% -5 -1 0.91 30% 0.9 .28 18% .37 83% .31
Dec
14		 Washington St. F C C+ F F 48% 27% 25% C+ F F B+ D- C- A+ A- A+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ 34% 12% 54% C- A A+ D+ A+ C+ B B- B
0.97 57% 42% 9% -9 0 0.84 17% 1.2 .21 16% .57 79% .45 0.87 59% 17% 33% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.0 .12 18% .24 71% .17
Dec
17		 Texas San Antonio A- A+ B+ A+ A+ 41% 18% 41% C A+ C B B- C+ A+ A- A+ C+ A C- A B 24% 27% 49% A B+ F C- F A+ F F F
1.31 76% 44% 43% +14 +1 1.31 37% 1.2 .44 15% .44 79% .35 0.94 42% 38% 25% -11 -2 0.78 43% 0.9 .40 23% .40 83% .33
Jan
2		 Michigan D A+ D F B 18% 41% 41% F C+ C+ F D+ F A+ F A+ A F A+ A+ A- 43% 12% 45% B A- A A+ A+ D+ F C+ F
0.79 67% 30% 25% -7 -4 0.80 28% 0.7 .20 25% .53 64% .34 1.15 80% 29% 23% +1 +1 1.07 31% 1.1 .34 13% .54 72% .39
Jan
5		 Michigan St. F B- F F F 40% 27% 33% C+ F+ C+ C+ C+ F B B B+ B+ C- F D- F 33% 33% 35% A- D- A+ A+ A+ C B+ B B+
0.72 58% 23% 13% -15 -1 0.71 22% 0.8 .16 24% .30 75% .22 1.13 65% 59% 39% +12 -2 1.21 31% 0.6 .19 17% .30 72% .22
Jan
9		 Minnesota B A- A- B- A 38% 27% 35% C A A+ F F+ F A+ A+ A+ A- C+ A D B 20% 22% 59% A+ B+ D- A+ B- C A- A+ A
1.07 67% 46% 35% +6 -1 1.13 45% 0.3 .12 24% .34 82% .28 1.05 60% 27% 37% 0 -1 1.00 36% 0.8 .29 17% .27 60% .16
Jan
13		 Maryland A+ A+ C C- A 39% 19% 42% C A- A+ F C+ A+ D+ B+ C B- A F D F+ 21% 35% 44% A+ D+ A+ F A+ C F D- F
1.30 77% 36% 33% +7 0 1.16 39% 0.8 .30 9% .26 75% .19 1.05 44% 53% 37% +4 -3 1.05 15% 1.3 .19 18% .48 78% .38
Jan
17		 Purdue D A A+ F D- 37% 27% 35% B- D B A+ A+ C- B F D- A+ B+ A+ C+ A+ 41% 20% 39% D A+ A+ D- A+ C- F+ C+ D-
0.93 68% 50% 6% -8 -1 0.84 28% 1.7 .47 19% .25 36% .09 1.00 57% 20% 35% -3 0 0.96 17% 1.3 .22 12% .36 73% .26
Jan
21		 Northwestern D+ C D+ F D- 47% 33% 20% D+ D- C D C- A+ A+ F A+ B- D+ B A+ A 45% 31% 24% B- A A C+ A- D- B F C+
1.01 57% 33% 11% -9 -1 0.82 32% 0.8 .27 9% .70 60% .42 1.10 64% 35% 15% -5 -1 0.91 23% 1.3 .29 9% .29 83% .24
Jan
25		 Wisconsin A- A- F+ F C- 29% 25% 46% C- C- A D+ B+ A+ A+ B- A+ A A+ F+ A+ A+ 33% 11% 56% C+ A+ F A- C- D- C- D D+
1.14 64% 33% 27% -4 -1 0.92 35% 0.9 .32 8% .39 74% .29 1.11 44% 50% 23% -12 +1 0.80 39% 1.0 .39 9% .34 80% .27
Jan
28		 Iowa B B+ A+ B A+ 38% 32% 30% D- A C+ C+ B- C C- D D+ A A- A+ A- A+ 33% 17% 50% B A+ D+ F F A+ F F F
1.06 67% 53% 36% +9 -1 1.17 29% 1.0 .29 22% .30 69% .21 1.07 53% 25% 30% -6 0 0.89 36% 1.3 .48 22% .41 86% .36
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Rutgers C A+ A B A+ 49% 32% 20% C- A+ A F D F A+ C- A+ C+ A B- A A 31% 38% 31% B+ A D- C+ D+ F+ A+ C- A+
1.11 75% 46% 38% +12 -1 1.24 43% 0.6 .25 24% .56 73% .41 1.06 44% 36% 28% -8 -3 0.81 38% 1.1 .42 11% .19 75% .14
Feb
3		 Indiana B C A A A+ 29% 38% 33% F+ A A+ A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ A A- F B A 37% 7% 56% C- A- A A+ A+ C A D A-
1.11 54% 47% 40% +5 -3 1.07 39% 1.4 .54 21% .54 81% .43 1.03 52% 100% 31% 0 +2 1.05 22% 0.8 .16 14% .26 81% .21
Feb
8		 Penn St. C- C B- F F+ 44% 24% 32% C D- B+ A+ A+ D+ A D+ A- A B- F C- C- 54% 13% 33% F+ D+ C A B+ A+ B+ A+ A+
1.06 59% 42% 25% -3 0 0.96 35% 1.8 .65 21% .31 72% .23 1.04 57% 71% 35% +5 +2 1.15 29% 1.0 .29 24% .27 60% .16
Feb
11		 Ohio St. B+ B+ C+ D- B 28% 44% 28% F C+ A- C B+ A- A+ C A+ B- F+ F C+ D 24% 34% 42% A C- B+ A+ A+ C+ D- F F
1.11 64% 41% 29% +1 -4 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 14% .52 73% .38 1.21 75% 65% 33% +13 -3 1.22 31% 0.8 .23 16% .40 96% .39
Feb
18		 Illinois D F D- A+ D+ 39% 31% 30% B- C- A- C+ B+ F A+ F A+ F+ C C F D- 48% 10% 42% D- D- C- D+ D+ C F F F
0.91 33% 29% 44% -8 -1 0.83 32% 0.9 .29 20% .35 60% .21 1.41 63% 40% 48% +11 +2 1.28 43% 1.3 .57 13% .42 92% .38
Feb
21		 Oregon D+ F B- F F+ 37% 27% 35% C+ D- B B+ B+ B- A+ C A+ B+ B- B+ A A- 48% 20% 33% C B+ A+ F D A- F D F
1.00 42% 43% 28% -8 -1 0.84 34% 1.0 .34 16% .41 75% .30 1.01 55% 33% 27% -6 +1 0.91 27% 1.8 .47 21% .49 78% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.3 7th
8th 0.4 0.7 1.1 8th
9th 0.2 2.8 0.4 3.3 9th
10th 0.6 7.0 5.6 0.1 13.3 10th
11th 4.8 29.2 22.1 2.1 58.2 11th
12th 10.7 7.7 0.0 18.5 12th
13th 5.0 0.4 5.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 20.5 38.0 29.2 10.8 1.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 1.5% 82.7% 0.5% 82.2% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 82.6%
10-10 10.8% 67.5% 0.1% 67.4% 9.9 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 2.1 0.0 3.5 67.4%
9-11 29.2% 37.1% 0.0% 37.1% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 7.4 0.4 18.4 37.1%
8-12 38.0% 11.4% 0.0% 11.4% 11.1 0.0 0.2 3.5 0.6 33.6 11.4%
7-13 20.5% 1.0% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 20.3 1.0%
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.9% 0.0% 23.9% 10.4 76.1 23.9%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.7% 0.0% 11.0 0.0