USC
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#71
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#98
Pace69.7#155
Improvement+5.1#7

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#83
First Shot+7.1#26
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#340
Layup/Dunks+4.2#44
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#34
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#268
Freethrows+2.6#43
Improvement+0.6#127

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#65
First Shot+2.9#89
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#74
Layups/Dunks+0.1#161
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#100
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#97
Freethrows-0.2#206
Improvement+4.5#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 1.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 17.9% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.7% 17.3% 7.1%
Average Seed 9.3 9.2 9.5
.500 or above 48.1% 65.2% 38.9%
.500 or above in Conference 19.8% 32.1% 13.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 8.1% 3.3% 10.8%
First Four2.8% 4.2% 2.1%
First Round9.5% 15.6% 6.2%
Second Round4.1% 6.8% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.5% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan (Home) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 53 - 11
Quad 23 - 46 - 15
Quad 33 - 110 - 16
Quad 46 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 174   Chattanooga W 77-51 86%     1 - 0 +22.4 +5.1 +18.8
  Nov 07, 2024 251   Idaho St. W 75-69 92%     2 - 0 -1.9 +4.3 -5.9
  Nov 13, 2024 164   Texas Arlington W 98-95 85%     3 - 0 -0.3 +9.5 -10.2
  Nov 17, 2024 128   California L 66-71 80%     3 - 1 -6.1 -5.9 -0.5
  Nov 20, 2024 162   San Jose St. W 82-68 85%     4 - 1 +10.9 +14.2 -2.0
  Nov 24, 2024 310   Grambling St. W 80-69 95%     5 - 1 -0.3 +5.2 -5.0
  Nov 28, 2024 53   St. Mary's L 36-71 41%     5 - 2 -24.7 -26.8 -2.6
  Nov 29, 2024 65   New Mexico L 73-83 48%     5 - 3 -1.7 +1.6 -3.0
  Dec 04, 2024 23   Oregon L 60-68 36%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +3.6 -5.9 +9.3
  Dec 07, 2024 95   @ Washington W 85-61 48%     6 - 4 1 - 1 +32.4 +18.9 +13.8
  Dec 15, 2024 155   Montana St. W 89-63 84%     7 - 4 +23.1 +7.3 +13.9
  Dec 18, 2024 153   Cal St. Northridge W 90-69 84%     8 - 4 +18.1 +14.9 +2.8
  Dec 22, 2024 240   Southern W 82-51 92%     9 - 4 +23.6 +3.5 +18.4
  Jan 04, 2025 19   Michigan L 72-76 35%    
  Jan 08, 2025 51   @ Indiana L 72-78 30%    
  Jan 11, 2025 21   @ Illinois L 71-81 18%    
  Jan 14, 2025 42   Iowa L 80-81 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 34   Wisconsin L 74-75 44%    
  Jan 22, 2025 46   @ Nebraska L 69-75 29%    
  Jan 27, 2025 18   UCLA L 66-70 35%    
  Feb 01, 2025 15   Michigan St. L 69-74 33%    
  Feb 04, 2025 55   @ Northwestern L 65-70 32%    
  Feb 07, 2025 27   @ Purdue L 69-78 20%    
  Feb 11, 2025 32   Penn St. L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 111   Minnesota W 70-62 76%    
  Feb 20, 2025 13   @ Maryland L 68-79 16%    
  Feb 23, 2025 64   @ Rutgers L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 26, 2025 29   Ohio St. L 72-74 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 23   @ Oregon L 68-78 19%    
  Mar 05, 2025 95   Washington W 76-71 69%    
  Mar 08, 2025 18   @ UCLA L 63-73 18%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.0 1.5 0.1 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.9 2.2 0.1 5.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.3 0.9 0.0 7.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 4.5 2.7 0.1 8.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 3.8 5.1 0.9 0.0 10.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.8 2.7 0.1 11.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.7 4.1 0.6 0.0 12.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.1 4.4 1.1 0.0 13.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 3.2 1.0 0.1 9.4 17th
18th 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.8 18th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.1 7.0 11.2 14.4 16.0 15.2 12.1 8.6 5.6 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 88.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 38.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 13.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 7.7% 92.3% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.2% 98.3% 8.3% 90.0% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.2%
14-6 0.6% 97.6% 6.8% 90.8% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.4%
13-7 1.6% 89.9% 4.6% 85.3% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 89.4%
12-8 3.2% 73.8% 2.0% 71.8% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.8 73.3%
11-9 5.6% 53.3% 1.2% 52.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.6 52.7%
10-10 8.6% 27.9% 0.9% 27.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.1 6.2 27.2%
9-11 12.1% 7.4% 0.4% 7.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 11.2 7.1%
8-12 15.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 15.1 0.7%
7-13 16.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.0 0.0%
6-14 14.4% 14.4
5-15 11.2% 11.2
4-16 7.0% 7.0
3-17 3.1% 3.1
2-18 1.0% 1.0
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20
Total 100% 11.1% 0.4% 10.6% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.4 2.9 2.6 0.2 88.9 10.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%