Wake Forest
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.6 65
Results Rating +8.7 68
Pace 70.3 129
Improvement -4.1 329

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 64 B- B B B- C+
Defense B- 92 B- C+ B+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 242 C+ 61% 104 -0.1 187
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 284 A 49% 10 +0.6 143
Three Pointers 46% 67 C+ 34% 153 +3.1 77
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 148 B- +3.2 79
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 77
Second Chance C+ 31.9% 138 A- 1.19 20 B 0.38 55
Turnovers B 14.4% 43
Freethrows C+ 0.32 138 B+ 77% 36 B- 0.25 92
Total Offense B +5.5 64

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 53% 107 B- 9.6% 104
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 250 A- 1.6% 11
Three Pointers B 89% 67 C 0.8% 165
Total B- 59% 95 B+ 4.1% 37

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 288 C 57% 164 -2.4 95
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 297 C+ 37% 110 -1.7 53
Three Pointers 48% 17 B 31% 65 +1.8 275
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 211 B- -2.5 79
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 102
Second Chance C 30.1% 169 C+ 1.00 132 C+ 0.30 150
Turnovers B+ 20.1% 30
Freethrows C 0.30 185 C- 73% 222 C 0.22 192
Total Defense B- +3.0 92

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 52% 247 B- 13.8% 73
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 35% 321 B 7.9% 46
Three Pointers D+ 87% 271 C- 0.8% 180
Total D 62% 318 C+ 6.5% 105

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 72 18.2 307
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 130 0.14 67
Improvement +1.2 #127 -5.2 #356

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 83 67 54
Results Rating Rank 86 68 56
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 8 - 10
Conference Finish 14 12 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1% 2% 0%
Average Seed 11.0 11.0 11.1
.500 or above 76% 89% 49%
.500 or above in Conference 4% 6% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 2% 0%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 66.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 11
Quad 25 - 46 - 15
Quad 34 - 110 - 16
Quad 47 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 253 American W 88 - 74 93% +9  94% 1 - 0 B- +6 C+ +3 D A A- B- +2 C+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 280 Morehead St. W 81 - 65 95% +8  76% 2 - 0 B- +6 F -11 F B+ F A+ +16 A+ B A+
 Tue, Nov 11 1 Michigan L 84 - 85 OT 6% -2  33% 2 - 1 A+ +26 B +6 D A+ B+ A+ +19 A+ A- A
 Sun, Nov 16 311 Umass Lowell W 109 - 75 96% +15  93% 3 - 1 A +22 A+ +19 B+ A+ A- C+ +1 C- A C
 Thu, Nov 20 14 Texas Tech L 83 - 84 17% -2  37% 3 - 2 A +18 A- +10 B+ A A+ A- +8 B+ C+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 101 Memphis W 69 - 68 64% -5  9% 4 - 2 B- +6 C+ +2 D A+ C B +4 D- B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 197 Campbell W 99 - 51 89% +26  98% 5 - 2 A+ +43 A+ +17 A A+ A+ A+ +25 A+ A B-
 Fri, Nov 28 292 Northeastern W 86 - 73 95% +7  95% 6 - 2 C+ +2 C- -1 A A- F B- +3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 52 Oklahoma L 68 - 86 55% -4  20% 6 - 3 D -11 F+ -10 F F+ C- C -0 D+ D+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 55 West Virginia W 75 - 66 45% +6  80% 7 - 3 A +19 A+ +20 A+ B C+ C+ +1 B F+ A+
 Sun, Dec 14 212 Queens W 111 - 73 90% +19  94% 8 - 3 A+ +32 A+ +25 A+ B+ C+ B+ +6 C B+ B
 Wed, Dec 17 262 Longwood W 71 - 68 94% +2  63% 9 - 3 D+ -6 F -11 F F A B +5 A D+ D
 Sun, Dec 21 16 Vanderbilt L 67 - 98 25% -19  0% 9 - 4 F+ -15 D -4 D+ C+ F+ F -10 F A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 24 @North Carolina St. L 57 - 70 17% -7  16% 9 - 5 0 - 1 B- +6 F -12 D F D+ A+ +18 A A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 57 Virginia Tech W 81 - 78 57% +4  77% 10 - 5 1 - 1 B +10 B- +4 D+ A+ B+ B+ +5 C B A+
 Wed, Jan 7 39 Miami (FL) L 77 - 81 43% +1  53% 10 - 6 1 - 2 B- +6 B+ +7 A+ C B- C -1 A F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 27 @North Carolina L 84 - 87 18% -8  0% 10 - 7 1 - 3 A- +15 A+ +15 A+ A- F+ C +0 C F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 80 @Florida St. W 69 - 68 43% -3  16% 11 - 7 2 - 3 B+ +11 C+ +3 C- B A+ A +9 A D- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 31 SMU L 79 - 91 38% -8  6% 11 - 8 2 - 4 C -0 C -0 B- D+ A- C+ +1 C- C A-
 Sat, Jan 24 2 @Duke L 69 - 90 5% -9  31% 11 - 9 2 - 5 B- +7 A +13 A B- A+ F+ -8 B- D- D+
 Tue, Jan 27 98 @Pittsburgh L 76 - 80 OT 51% +3  83% 11 - 10 2 - 6 C+ +4 C+ +2 C C+ C- B- +2 A F+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 24 North Carolina St. L 78 - 96 34% -11  1% 11 - 11 2 - 7 D+ -5 B+ +8 B B A+ F -13 F+ C C-
 Sat, Feb 7 11 Louisville L 80 - 88 23% -7  0% 11 - 12 2 - 8 B +8 A- +10 B A- A+ C- -2 C C C-
 Wed, Feb 11 140 @Georgia Tech W 83 - 67 67% +8  85% 12 - 12 3 - 8 A +20 A+ +17 A+ B B B +4 A- B- F
 Sat, Feb 14 77 Stanford W 68 - 63 65% -3  7% 13 - 12 4 - 8 B +10 C+ +3 C- C+ B+ A- +7 C A+ B
 Wed, Feb 18 41 Clemson W 85 - 77 44% +9  94% 14 - 12 5 - 8 A +18 A+ +21 A+ A A- C- -2 C B- C-
 Sat, Feb 21 57 @Virginia Tech L 63 - 82 34% -9  13% 14 - 13 5 - 9 D+ -6 B- +4 C- D+ A+ F -13 F+ F F
 Tue, Feb 24 139 @Boston College W 73 - 69 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 73 Syracuse W 80 - 76 64%
 Tue, Mar 3 22 @Virginia L 68 - 80 14%
 Sat, Mar 7 70 California W 78 - 75 62%
Totals 16 - 15 7 - 11 +9 B +6 A+ B- C+ B- +3 C+ B+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C+ A C+ B- 36% 28% 46% C+ B- C+ A- B B C+ B+ B- B- C C+ B B- 35% 17% 48% C- B- C C+ C+ B+ C C- C
1.17 61% 49% 34% +3 0 1.09 32% 1.2 .38 14% .32 77% .25 1.04 57% 37% 31% -2 0 0.97 30% 1.0 .30 20% .30 73% .23
Nov
3		 American C+ A- F F F+ 53% 12% 35% A D C+ A+ A A- C A B- B- F B- A+ B- 38% 6% 56% D- C+ C F F A+ D- F F
1.17 70% 14% 20% -4 +2 0.98 33% 1.4 .47 15% .37 79% .29 0.98 68% 33% 25% -4 +2 0.98 26% 1.3 .34 24% .31 89% .28
Nov
7		 Morehead St. F F+ C F F 54% 10% 36% A- F A+ D B+ F A+ F A- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 33% 10% 57% F A+ A D B A+ B- F C-
1.02 48% 40% 28% -9 +2 0.90 50% 0.9 .43 24% .49 60% .30 0.82 53% 20% 21% -15 +1 0.75 27% 1.0 .27 24% .28 82% .23
Nov
11		 Michigan B F F+ D D 30% 28% 42% C+ D A- A+ A+ B+ A- B A- A+ B- F A+ A+ 50% 6% 44% D+ A+ B+ B- A- A F A- F
0.97 30% 26% 29% -15 -2 0.69 33% 1.3 .44 15% .29 76% .22 0.99 60% 67% 14% -11 +3 0.86 34% 1.3 .45 20% .53 68% .36
Nov
16		 Umass Lowell A+ B- A+ B B+ 41% 14% 45% C+ B+ C A+ A+ A- A A+ A+ C+ C- F A- C 45% 15% 40% D- C- A- A- A C C+ F C-
1.43 63% 63% 38% +8 +1 1.21 32% 2.0 .65 9% .35 83% .29 0.99 58% 50% 29% -1 +1 1.02 25% 0.9 .22 20% .30 72% .21
Nov
20		 Texas Tech A- D B- A+ B+ 39% 30% 30% B B+ C+ A+ A A+ B+ F C+ A- C+ C D+ B 19% 26% 55% A B+ F+ A- C+ A- F+ D+ F
1.10 50% 41% 41% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.4 .37 11% .33 59% .19 1.12 60% 43% 38% +5 -2 1.08 41% 0.9 .36 19% .34 76% .26
Nov
21		 Memphis C+ B F+ F D 22% 22% 55% D D A A+ A+ C C+ C+ C+ B F A+ D- D- 30% 14% 56% D+ D- F+ A+ B+ A+ D- A+ C
1.03 64% 27% 26% -8 -1 0.84 42% 1.3 .53 21% .36 74% .26 1.01 69% 17% 38% +3 0 1.09 43% 0.8 .35 25% .36 61% .22
Nov
25		 Campbell A+ A B A- A 41% 13% 46% B A B A+ A+ A+ B A+ A A+ A A+ A+ A+ 35% 15% 50% B A+ A B A B- F+ A+ C+
1.38 73% 43% 40% +11 +1 1.26 36% 1.6 .57 11% .34 86% .30 0.71 44% 13% 15% -23 0 0.58 26% 0.9 .24 19% .45 58% .26
Nov
28		 Northeastern C- A+ A+ C A 45% 14% 41% B- A A C A- F C+ B- B- B- B- B F F 48% 13% 39% D- F B+ A+ A+ A+ C- D- D+
1.17 82% 57% 35% +14 +1 1.33 43% 1.0 .43 23% .36 75% .27 1.00 55% 33% 56% +10 +2 1.26 21% 0.7 .14 30% .29 73% .21
Dec
2		 Oklahoma F+ F C- F F 27% 22% 51% C F F+ D- F+ C- A+ A A+ C F F+ C+ D+ 43% 13% 45% D- D+ F+ B D+ B+ F C F
0.94 43% 36% 27% -10 -1 0.80 22% 0.9 .20 17% .45 81% .37 1.19 70% 50% 33% +6 +1 1.17 40% 1.2 .48 17% .58 74% .43
Dec
6		 West Virginia A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 44% 8% 48% A A+ A+ F B C+ D+ F D- C+ D+ F A+ A- 42% 3% 55% F B F A+ F+ A+ F F F
1.23 57% 50% 43% +7 +2 1.21 45% 0.7 .32 18% .22 64% .14 1.09 63% 100% 24% -5 +3 0.97 58% 0.8 .45 30% .56 75% .42
Dec
14		 Queens A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 25% 14% 61% D+ A+ C+ A B+ C+ B A+ A+ B+ F A+ B C 25% 10% 65% C+ C A+ F B+ B B+ C+ B+
1.55 69% 100% 52% +27 0 1.57 35% 1.3 .45 14% .39 92% .36 1.02 85% 20% 30% +1 0 1.06 19% 1.3 .25 18% .26 73% .19
Dec
17		 Longwood F C- A+ F F 38% 17% 45% C- F F D F A A+ B- A+ B B+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 12% 54% F+ A B+ F D+ D D+ D+ D
0.97 61% 63% 19% -5 0 0.94 17% 0.8 .14 14% .48 73% .35 0.93 50% 17% 25% -13 +1 0.79 28% 1.3 .35 18% .35 76% .27
Dec
21		 Vanderbilt D D A- F D 36% 20% 43% B- D+ A F+ C+ F+ A+ B A+ F F A+ F F 37% 8% 56% D- F A+ C+ A+ B+ A- B A-
0.92 50% 44% 21% -10 0 0.82 36% 0.8 .28 23% .57 78% .45 1.34 84% 25% 52% +23 +2 1.52 22% 1.2 .26 16% .26 75% .20
Dec
31		 North Carolina St. F F A+ F+ D- 37% 8% 55% B D C- F F D+ F+ C+ D- A+ D A+ A+ A+ 46% 15% 38% C- A C+ A+ A+ A+ B- F+ C
0.80 42% 50% 29% -9 +2 0.86 25% 0.4 .10 22% .23 69% .16 0.98 67% 25% 25% -3 +1 0.98 29% 0.6 .17 21% .30 82% .25
Jan
3		 Virginia Tech B- A C- F C- 35% 33% 32% D- D+ B A+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A- B+ D F B C- 19% 21% 60% A- C A- C B A+ F C+ F
1.09 70% 37% 17% -4 -2 0.89 34% 1.5 .50 15% .25 88% .22 1.05 67% 60% 32% +5 -1 1.09 28% 1.1 .31 26% .45 72% .33
Jan
7		 Miami (FL) B+ F A+ A+ A+ 27% 31% 41% D- A+ F A+ C B- C B- C C F D+ A+ A 49% 16% 36% C- A F+ F F B+ F F F
1.12 36% 63% 52% +13 -2 1.24 14% 1.8 .25 18% .25 71% .18 1.18 73% 43% 13% -4 +1 0.98 45% 1.3 .59 19% .54 77% .41
Jan
10		 North Carolina A+ A- A+ A- A+ 29% 15% 56% B+ A+ B+ A A- F+ C- B- C C F A+ B C+ 40% 11% 49% D C F F F A+ F B- F
1.18 63% 63% 39% +9 0 1.20 31% 1.1 .34 18% .19 73% .14 1.22 78% 20% 32% +4 +1 1.13 43% 1.6 .70 20% .52 67% .35
Jan
17		 Florida St. C+ D+ A+ F C- 23% 23% 54% D C- D A+ B A+ F B- D- A D- D- A+ A- 21% 21% 58% A+ A F A- D- A+ F+ F F
1.05 54% 62% 27% -1 -1 0.96 24% 1.3 .32 8% .20 75% .15 1.03 67% 44% 24% -6 -1 0.88 46% 1.0 .46 24% .38 89% .34
Jan
20		 SMU C C- B C+ C+ 38% 17% 45% B+ B- F+ A- D+ A- C+ C+ C+ C+ A- F F D+ 27% 25% 47% B C- C+ C- C A- C B C+
1.05 55% 40% 35% -1 0 1.02 22% 1.1 .24 15% .28 72% .20 1.20 53% 57% 46% +12 -1 1.24 35% 1.1 .39 19% .29 72% .21
Jan
24		 Duke A B F A+ A+ 24% 14% 62% B A D A+ B- A+ B- A+ A- F+ D A+ C B 50% 7% 43% D+ B- F B D- D+ F F F
1.07 58% 0% 42% +2 0 1.06 18% 1.2 .21 14% .23 85% .20 1.39 70% 0% 35% +4 +3 1.15 50% 1.1 .56 14% .43 88% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Pittsburgh C+ A- A+ F C+ 34% 26% 40% D C C B C+ C- B B B+ B- A B A- A+ 36% 10% 53% D+ A C- F F+ F F C- F
1.06 67% 50% 24% 0 -1 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 18% .32 79% .25 1.11 48% 33% 29% -8 +1 0.88 36% 1.3 .45 11% .39 68% .27
Jan
31		 North Carolina St. B+ D A+ C+ B+ 37% 22% 41% D+ B F+ A+ B A+ A A+ A+ F A+ F F F 38% 13% 49% C- F+ A- F C C- B- C- B-
1.12 50% 55% 35% +1 0 1.04 18% 1.8 .32 13% .40 88% .35 1.38 43% 57% 56% +12 +1 1.29 24% 1.6 .38 12% .29 78% .23
Feb
7		 Louisville A- A D C+ B+ 28% 32% 40% D+ B B- A+ A- A+ A+ C A+ C- C F D C 41% 13% 46% B- C A+ F C C- F C+ F
1.13 67% 29% 33% -1 -2 0.96 28% 1.2 .33 8% .39 72% .28 1.24 63% 67% 38% +9 +1 1.22 21% 1.7 .36 16% .52 77% .40
Feb
11		 Georgia Tech A+ B A+ A+ A+ 28% 13% 60% B A+ D+ A+ B B A+ F B+ B A+ A+ F A- 38% 27% 35% B- A- B- B- B- F A+ A+ A+
1.27 62% 50% 46% +14 0 1.30 26% 1.4 .37 14% .39 64% .25 1.03 33% 20% 53% -5 -1 0.91 30% 1.1 .33 12% .16 56% .09
Feb
14		 Stanford C+ D A+ F C- 34% 24% 41% C C- D- A+ C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A- D- A- D+ D+ 29% 15% 56% A C A+ A+ A+ B A- A A
1.08 50% 60% 24% -4 -1 0.93 20% 1.6 .32 16% .60 88% .53 1.00 64% 29% 37% +3 0 1.08 23% 0.7 .17 17% .27 64% .17
Feb
18		 Clemson A+ B A+ A+ A+ 28% 24% 48% C- A+ B- A+ A A- A+ B A+ C- C- F C+ C 43% 10% 47% D+ C D+ A B- C- F B+ D-
1.28 62% 64% 45% +15 -1 1.30 26% 1.3 .35 15% .42 79% .34 1.16 64% 60% 33% +4 +2 1.14 32% 0.8 .26 14% .43 68% .29
Feb
21		 Virginia Tech B- A- F F D+ 38% 13% 50% B+ C- A- F D+ A+ A- D+ B F C- F F D- 39% 12% 49% D- F+ F C- F F B- A+ A
1.04 67% 17% 25% -6 +1 0.92 38% 0.7 .26 12% .30 69% .21 1.35 63% 50% 42% +9 +1 1.22 43% 1.2 .50 8% .29 56% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.3 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 2.9 2.4 5.4 9th
10th 0.4 10.7 1.2 12.2 10th
11th 4.7 11.9 0.1 16.8 11th
12th 0.9 21.1 3.6 25.6 12th
13th 0.2 10.3 12.2 0.1 22.8 13th
14th 3.3 10.9 1.7 15.9 14th
15th 0.9 0.1 1.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 4.5 22.2 40.1 29.2 4.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 4.0% 17.7% 0.3% 17.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.3 17.5%
8-10 29.2% 2.5% 0.1% 2.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 28.5 2.4%
7-11 40.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 40.0 0.2%
6-12 22.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 22.2 0.0%
5-13 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 4.5
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 0.1% 1.5% 11.0 98.4 1.5%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 35.9% 10.1 2.6 5.1 12.8 15.4
Lose Out 3.1%