IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Washington
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+12.2	#41
Expected Predictive Rating	+10.5	#55

Pace	68.7	#180
Improvement	+3.9	#34

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#52	B-	B+	B-	C+	D
Defense	#43	B+	B	C-	B	A-

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	36%	#236	1.26	#76	+0.5	#156
2 Pt. Jumpers	28%	#47	0.88	#39	+4.6	#15
Three Pointers	36%	#296	1.05	#115	-2.0	#253
1st FG Attempt			1.08	#84	+3.1	#84
Freethrows	0.30	#192	78%	#21	0.23	#129
Second Chance	36.0%	#40	1.11	#73	0.40	#40
Turnovers					14.8%	#71
Total Offense					+6.6	#52

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	32%	#327	1.09	#89	+4.9	#42
2 Pt. Jumpers	28%	#19	0.70	#88	-2.1	#326
Three Pointers	40%	#218	0.87	#23	+3.4	#50
1st FG Attempt			0.89	#28	+6.2	#28
Freethrows	0.26	#52	69%	#54	0.18	#40
Second Chance	27.1%	#61	0.94	#64	0.25	#46
Turnovers					16.1%	#218
Total Defense					+5.7	#43

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	-2.2%	#313	-2.8%	#19
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	8.5%	#59	-9.7%	#37
Possession Length	16.7	#116	18.3	#317
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.20	#95	0.09	#9
Improvement	+2.4	#62	+1.5	#96

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.5%	1.0%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	35.1%	49.7%	23.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	34.9%	49.5%	23.5%
Average Seed	9.9	9.6	10.3

.500 or above	92.1%	97.7%	87.7%
.500 or above in Conference	53.9%	72.4%	39.4%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	13.5%	15.2%	12.3%
First Round	29.2%	43.2%	18.1%
Second Round	12.9%	19.9%	7.5%
Sweet Sixteen	2.8%	4.2%	1.7%
Elite Eight	0.9%	1.4%	0.4%
Final Four	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Home) - 44.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 7	0 - 7
Quad 1b	3 - 2	3 - 9
Quad 2	5 - 4	8 - 13
Quad 3	5 - 1	13 - 14
Quad 4	5 - 0	18 - 14

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	331 Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	94 - 50	98%	+21	1 - 0		+30	+10	B-	A	D-	+18	A+	A+	A-
Thu, Nov 6	288 Denver	W	84 - 70	97%	+8	2 - 0		+4	+0	C-	B-	C	+4	C-	A+	B+
Sun, Nov 9	47 @Baylor	L	69 - 78	41%	-4	2 - 1		+6	+0	C-	D+	C-	+6	C+	A+	D+
Fri, Nov 14	122 @Washington St.	W	81 - 69	74%	+10	3 - 1		+18	+19	B+	B	A-	+0	A	D+	F
Tue, Nov 18	266 Southern	W	99 - 93 2OT	96%	-3	4 - 1		-3	-1	F	B+	B-	-4	C+	F	B-
Thu, Nov 27	71 Nevada	W	83 - 66	66%	+7	5 - 1		+25	+11	A	C	D	+13	A+	B+	C
Fri, Nov 28	72 Colorado	L	68 - 81	66%	-9	5 - 2		-5	-2	F	B	A+	-3	B-	D+	B
Wed, Dec 3	35 UCLA	L	80 - 82	55%	-3	5 - 3	0 - 1	+9	+18	A+	A+	F+	-10	F+	F+	D-
Sat, Dec 6	48 @USC	W	84 - 76	42%	-8	6 - 3	1 - 1	+22	+16	C+	A+	C+	+6	A+	A-	F
Sat, Dec 13	284 Southern Utah	W	105 - 69	97%	+18	7 - 3		+26	+26	A+	B+	A+	-0	D	A+	F+
Fri, Dec 19	124 @Seattle	L	66 - 70	75%	+2	7 - 4		+1	-4	D	F	C	+5	B+	A	C+
Mon, Dec 22	202 San Diego	W	86 - 56	94%	+16	8 - 4		+24	+5	D-	A+	A-	+18	A	A+	A+
Mon, Dec 29	104 Utah	W	74 - 65	84%	+3	9 - 4		+10	+1	C+	D	C+	+10	A+	D-	B
Sun, Jan 4	30 @Indiana	L	80 - 90	30%	-7	9 - 5	1 - 2	+8	+22	B+	A+	A+	-15	D+	D-	F
Wed, Jan 7	8 @Purdue	L	73 - 81	14%	-14	9 - 6	1 - 3	+16	+8	B	C+	C-	+8	C+	F+	A+
Sun, Jan 11	36 Ohio St.	W	81 - 74	56%	+0	10 - 6	2 - 3	+18	+18	A-	B	A+	+1	A	B-	B-
Wed, Jan 14	1 Michigan	L	72 - 82	18%	-8	10 - 7	2 - 4	+12	+10	C+	A+	B-	+2	A+	D	D-
Sat, Jan 17	10 Michigan St.	L	63 - 80	32%	-8	10 - 8	2 - 5	+0	+4	A-	B	C	-5	B-	B	F
Wed, Jan 21	13 @Nebraska	L	66 - 76	19%	-10	10 - 9	2 - 6	+11	+10	B	B+	A+	+0	C	A+	C-
Sun, Jan 25	82 Oregon	W	72 - 57	79%	+12	11 - 9	3 - 6	+19	+7	A-	C-	C-	+13	A+	A+	C-
Thu, Jan 29	7 @Illinois	L	66 - 75	13%	-5	11 - 10	3 - 7	+15	+11	A+	D-	D-	+2	A+	F	F
Sat, Jan 31	63 @Northwestern	W	76 - 62	51%	+8	12 - 10	4 - 7	+26	+13	A-	A-	C	+14	A+	A+	A+
Wed, Feb 4	21 Iowa	L	70 - 72	44%
Sat, Feb 7	35 @UCLA	L	70 - 75	33%
Wed, Feb 11	112 Penn St.	W	84 - 72	87%
Sat, Feb 14	76 Minnesota	W	73 - 65	77%
Sat, Feb 21	107 @Maryland	W	77 - 72	69%
Tue, Feb 24	114 @Rutgers	W	76 - 70	71%
Sat, Feb 28	37 Wisconsin	W	80 - 78	56%
Wed, Mar 4	48 USC	W	78 - 74	63%
Sat, Mar 7	82 @Oregon	W	75 - 72	59%
Totals						18 - 13	10 - 10	+12	+7	B-	B+	B-	+6	B+	B	C-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Ten Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st																							1st
2nd																							2nd
3rd																							3rd
4th													0.0	0.1								0.1	4th
5th													0.3	0.7								1.0	5th
6th											0.0	0.7	3.2	0.8								4.8	6th
7th											0.2	4.2	3.6	0.1								8.2	7th
8th										0.0	2.4	7.0	1.2									10.7	8th
9th										0.8	8.4	5.1	0.1									14.5	9th
10th								0.0	0.4	7.0	10.4	1.1										18.9	10th
11th							0.0	0.5	5.7	11.1	3.8	0.1										21.3	11th
12th							0.4	4.1	7.9	3.6	0.2											16.2	12th
13th						0.1	1.1	1.9	0.7	0.1												3.8	13th
14th						0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0													0.5	14th
15th					0.0	0.1	0.0															0.1	15th
16th						0.0																0.0	16th
17th																							17th
18th																							18th

Total					0.0	0.3	1.8	6.6	14.8	22.6	25.6	18.3	8.4	1.7									Total

Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7	0.0%
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7	1.7%	91.8%	0.6%	91.2%	7.6				0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0						0.1	91.8%
12-8	8.4%	82.7%	0.8%	81.9%	9.0			0.0		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.6	2.4	1.8	0.6						1.5	82.6%
11-9	18.3%	65.2%	0.4%	64.8%	9.8						0.0	0.3	1.0	2.6	4.5	3.5	0.0					6.4	65.0%
10-10	25.6%	41.6%	0.4%	41.3%	10.4							0.1	0.4	0.9	2.6	6.3	0.2					14.9	41.4%
9-11	22.6%	16.0%	0.1%	15.9%	10.8								0.1	0.1	0.5	2.6	0.3					19.0	15.9%
8-12	14.8%	3.1%	0.1%	3.0%	11.1										0.0	0.4	0.1					14.4	3.0%
7-13	6.6%	0.5%	0.2%	0.3%	11.3											0.0	0.0					6.6	0.3%
6-14	1.8%																					1.8
5-15	0.3%																					0.3
4-16	0.0%																					0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	35.1%	0.3%	34.8%	9.9																	64.9	34.9%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	5.8				16.0	28.0	28.0	20.0	8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.2%	100.0%	6.6					4.9	43.9	34.1	17.1