Washington
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.9 #47
Expected Predictive Rating +8.0 #75
Pace 68.9 #191
Improvement +1.4 #108

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #56 C A- B B D
Defense #63 B+ B C B A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #219 1.17 #156 -0.6 #202
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #50 0.86 #53 +4.1 #24
Three Pointers 35% #298 1.03 #161 -2.5 #272
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #150 +1.1 #150
Freethrows 18.2 #143 79% #22 14.4 #80
Second Chance 35.3% #55 1.16 #61 0.41 #38
Turnovers 14.7% #67
Total Offense +6.1 #56

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #332 1.08 #89 +5.4 #28
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #33 0.71 #128 -1.9 #314
Three Pointers 42% #164 0.94 #97 +1.2 #139
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #52 +4.6 #52
Freethrows 15.2 #75 69% #59 10.6 #308
Second Chance 27.5% #76 0.96 #78 0.26 #55
Turnovers 16.6% #186
Total Defense +4.8 #63

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.0% #298 -2.7% #23
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.2% #121 -6.5% #72
Possession Length 16.5 #107 18.1 #302
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #95 0.10 #20
Improvement +2.1 #57 -0.7 #234

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 2.0% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.9% 36.6% 17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.7% 36.4% 17.7%
Average Seed 9.4 9.2 9.7
.500 or above 70.7% 82.2% 60.0%
.500 or above in Conference 35.4% 48.6% 23.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.5% 2.1%
First Four7.8% 9.0% 6.6%
First Round23.2% 32.5% 14.5%
Second Round10.2% 14.9% 5.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 3.0% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Home) - 48.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 10
Quad 25 - 58 - 14
Quad 34 - 112 - 15
Quad 45 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 94 - 50 98%  +21  1 - 0 +31 +9 B- A+ F +19 A+ A+ A
 Thu, Nov 6 264 Denver W 84 - 70 96%  +8  2 - 0 +5 +0 C C C+ +5 C A+ A
 Sun, Nov 9 32 @Baylor L 69 - 78 28%  -4  2 - 1 +8 +1 C D D +7 C+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 14 145 @Washington St. W 81 - 69 75%  +10  3 - 1 +16 +20 A A- A -3 B+ C- F
 Tue, Nov 18 256 Southern W 99 - 93 2OT 95%  -3  4 - 1 -3 -1 F B+ C -3 B F B
 Thu, Nov 27 90 Nevada W 83 - 66 67%  +7  5 - 1 +23 +11 A+ C- D +12 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 28 77 Colorado L 68 - 81 62%  -9  5 - 2 -5 -2 F A+ A+ -3 B D B-
 Wed, Dec 3 38 UCLA L 80 - 82 53%  -3  5 - 3 0 - 1 +8 +17 A+ A+ F -9 F F F
 Sat, Dec 6 46 @USC W 84 - 76 38%  -8  6 - 3 1 - 1 +22 +14 C A+ B- +7 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 329 Southern Utah W 105 - 69 98%  +18  7 - 3 +22 +24 A- B+ A+ -3 F A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 120 @Seattle L 66 - 70 69%  +2  7 - 4 +2 -6 D F C +8 A A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 22 222 San Diego W 86 - 56 94%  +16  8 - 4 +24 +5 F A+ A+ +17 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 117 Utah W 74 - 65 84%  +3  9 - 4 +9 +1 C+ F C +8 A+ D B+
 Sun, Jan 4 25 @Indiana L 80 - 90 23%  -7  9 - 5 1 - 2 +9 +23 A A+ A+ -16 D D F
 Wed, Jan 7 4 @Purdue L 73 - 81 9%  -14  9 - 6 1 - 3 +18 +10 A+ B D +8 C+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 30 Ohio St. L 76 - 77 48% 
 Wed, Jan 14 1 Michigan L 73 - 86 11% 
 Sat, Jan 17 14 Michigan St. L 68 - 72 35% 
 Wed, Jan 21 23 @Nebraska L 70 - 78 23% 
 Sun, Jan 25 65 Oregon W 77 - 72 68% 
 Thu, Jan 29 9 @Illinois L 70 - 82 13% 
 Sat, Jan 31 60 @Northwestern L 75 - 76 45% 
 Wed, Feb 4 20 Iowa L 70 - 72 41% 
 Sat, Feb 7 38 @UCLA L 71 - 76 32% 
 Wed, Feb 11 105 Penn St. W 80 - 71 81% 
 Sat, Feb 14 76 Minnesota W 72 - 66 71% 
 Sat, Feb 21 107 @Maryland W 75 - 72 62% 
 Tue, Feb 24 131 @Rutgers W 75 - 69 71% 
 Sat, Feb 28 43 Wisconsin W 78 - 76 58% 
 Wed, Mar 4 46 USC W 79 - 76 60% 
 Sat, Mar 7 65 @Oregon L 74 - 75 47% 
Totals 17 - 14 9 - 11 +11 +6 C A- B +5 B+ B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.2 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.5 0.6 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.6 1.7 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.9 3.7 0.5 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 3.1 5.6 1.3 0.0 10.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 6.6 3.2 0.1 11.8 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 5.7 5.4 0.7 0.0 12.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 3.9 5.9 1.7 0.1 12.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.6 2.5 0.1 10.8 13th
14th 0.1 1.1 3.8 2.5 0.3 7.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.9 15th
16th 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 4.8 9.1 13.6 16.5 17.5 14.7 10.3 6.4 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 20.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.2% 100.0% 2.3% 97.7% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.0% 99.0% 1.0% 98.0% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
13-7 2.8% 95.9% 1.6% 94.3% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 95.8%
12-8 6.4% 86.2% 1.1% 85.1% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.9 86.1%
11-9 10.3% 72.1% 0.3% 71.8% 9.4 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 2.5 1.2 2.9 72.0%
10-10 14.7% 46.4% 0.3% 46.1% 10.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.4 3.2 0.1 7.9 46.2%
9-11 17.5% 16.0% 0.1% 15.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 0.1 14.7 15.9%
8-12 16.5% 2.5% 0.1% 2.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 16.1 2.5%
7-13 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 13.6 0.1%
6-14 9.1% 9.1
5-15 4.8% 4.8
4-16 2.3% 2.3
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 26.9% 0.2% 26.7% 9.4 73.1 26.7%