Wisconsin
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.8 #43
Expected Predictive Rating +11.3 #52
Pace 74.1 #59
Improvement -0.8 #226

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #62 B+ C A+ B+ B
Defense #37 B A- C B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #249 1.29 #57 +0.9 #140
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #339 0.94 #15 -2.2 #287
Three Pointers 53% #14 1.03 #169 +6.2 #22
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #57 +4.9 #57
Freethrows 20.0 #61 75% #120 15.0 #56
Second Chance 29.8% #218 1.11 #102 0.33 #155
Turnovers 12.9% #15
Total Offense +5.8 #62

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #229 1.04 #53 +3.1 #80
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #72 0.86 #318 -2.7 #342
Three Pointers 39% #241 0.93 #78 +2.8 #83
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #83 +3.2 #83
Freethrows 16.3 #137 68% #35 11.1 #275
Second Chance 22.4% #7 1.11 #257 0.25 #33
Turnovers 17.0% #157
Total Defense +6.0 #37

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #68 -1.2% #83
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.5% #68 -5.1% #91
Possession Length 14.7 #14 17.9 #285
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #61 0.13 #48
Improvement -2.6 #323 +1.8 #72

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 2.2% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 3.8% 14.1% 3.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.3% 65.9% 35.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.0% 65.6% 35.6%
Average Seed 9.0 8.1 9.0
.500 or above 82.3% 95.9% 81.6%
.500 or above in Conference 48.3% 74.7% 47.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four9.4% 9.9% 9.4%
First Round32.9% 62.0% 31.4%
Second Round16.1% 35.2% 15.1%
Sweet Sixteen3.8% 9.3% 3.5%
Elite Eight1.3% 2.2% 1.2%
Final Four0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan (Away) - 4.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 12
Quad 25 - 28 - 14
Quad 34 - 012 - 15
Quad 46 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 199 Campbell W 96 - 64 94%  +8  1 - 0 +27 +18 A- A+ A+ +8 B C A+
 Fri, Nov 7 325 Northern Illinois W 97 - 72 98%  +19  2 - 0 +12 +13 C A+ A+ -3 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 312 Ball St. W 86 - 55 98%  +19  3 - 0 +19 +10 A- B+ F +10 B- B A-
 Mon, Nov 17 275 SIU Edwardsville W 94 - 69 97%  +12  4 - 0 +15 +25 A+ C A+ -8 C F D+
 Fri, Nov 21 8 BYU L 70 - 98 21%  -12  4 - 1 -8 +2 B- D B+ -8 B+ A F
 Thu, Nov 27 66 Providence W 104 - 83 61%  +14  5 - 1 +30 +17 A B+ A+ +9 B+ A- B+
 Fri, Nov 28 44 TCU L 63 - 74 50%  -11  5 - 2 +1 -6 F C- D- +7 C- A+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 60 Northwestern W 85 - 73 71%  +16  6 - 2 1 - 0 +18 +14 A+ D- A+ +4 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 110 Marquette W 96 - 76 84%  +12  7 - 2 +21 +15 A+ F A+ +4 D A+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 23 @Nebraska L 60 - 90 25%  -14  7 - 3 1 - 1 -11 -3 C- D+ A- -9 D- D C+
 Fri, Dec 19 31 Villanova L 66 - 76 OT 41%  -7  7 - 4 +4 +1 B- B+ D- +3 A+ C F
 Mon, Dec 22 323 Central Michigan W 88 - 61 98%  +15  8 - 4 +14 +12 A+ F B+ +3 B A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 226 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80 - 60 95%  +14  9 - 4 +13 -3 C F B+ +15 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 4 Purdue L 73 - 89 23%  -8  9 - 5 1 - 2 +4 +6 C A+ C+ -2 A+ A- F
 Tue, Jan 6 38 UCLA W 80 - 72 57%  +12  10 - 5 2 - 2 +18 +9 B- A A+ +9 A+ B C
 Sat, Jan 10 1 @Michigan L 72 - 90 5% 
 Tue, Jan 13 76 @Minnesota W 71 - 70 54% 
 Sat, Jan 17 131 Rutgers W 81 - 68 89% 
 Thu, Jan 22 105 @Penn St. W 80 - 76 65% 
 Sun, Jan 25 46 USC W 82 - 78 63% 
 Wed, Jan 28 76 Minnesota W 74 - 67 75% 
 Sat, Jan 31 30 Ohio St. W 79 - 78 52% 
 Sat, Feb 7 25 @Indiana L 74 - 81 27% 
 Tue, Feb 10 9 @Illinois L 72 - 83 14% 
 Fri, Feb 13 14 Michigan St. L 71 - 74 38% 
 Tue, Feb 17 30 @Ohio St. L 76 - 81 31% 
 Sun, Feb 22 20 Iowa L 71 - 73 44% 
 Wed, Feb 25 65 @Oregon L 76 - 77 50% 
 Sat, Feb 28 47 @Washington L 76 - 78 42% 
 Wed, Mar 4 107 Maryland W 81 - 71 83% 
 Sat, Mar 7 4 @Purdue L 69 - 83 10% 
Totals 17 - 14 9 - 11 +12 +6 B+ C A+ +6 B A- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.5 4th
5th 0.3 1.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 3.6 1.2 0.1 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 4.9 2.5 0.2 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.7 4.7 0.7 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.2 3.3 6.8 1.7 0.1 12.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 7.0 3.6 0.3 12.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 5.3 5.2 0.8 0.0 12.2 11th
12th 0.3 3.2 5.5 1.5 0.0 10.6 12th
13th 0.1 1.5 4.3 2.0 0.1 8.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.8 0.1 4.9 14th
15th 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.2 2.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.4 10.4 15.0 17.9 17.5 14.0 9.2 4.9 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0%
16-4 15.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 3.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 5.0% 95.0% 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.5% 100.0% 1.9% 98.1% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.0% 99.2% 2.0% 97.2% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
13-7 4.9% 95.5% 1.3% 94.2% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 95.5%
12-8 9.2% 90.3% 0.7% 89.6% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 2.4 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 90.2%
11-9 14.0% 74.1% 0.5% 73.6% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.8 3.4 1.8 0.0 3.6 74.0%
10-10 17.5% 45.2% 0.4% 44.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 3.8 0.1 9.6 45.0%
9-11 17.9% 16.4% 0.2% 16.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.2 0.2 15.0 16.2%
8-12 15.0% 2.4% 0.1% 2.3% 11.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 14.6 2.3%
7-13 10.4% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 10.4 0.1%
6-14 5.4% 5.4
5-15 2.3% 2.3
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 37.3% 0.4% 36.9% 9.0 62.7 37.0%