Wisconsin
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.5 #37
Expected Predictive Rating +14.5 #35
Pace 72.7 #75
Improvement +2.0 #97

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #28 B+ C+ A B+ B
Defense #58 B- B+ C- B- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #246 1.28 #64 +0.8 #147
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #345 0.92 #23 -2.9 #317
Three Pointers 53% #10 1.08 #86 +8.0 #11
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #40 +5.9 #40
Freethrows 0.34 #66 77% #26 0.26 #32
Second Chance 30.3% #195 1.13 #56 0.34 #110
Turnovers 12.3% #5
Total Offense +8.7 #28

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #300 0.99 #19 +5.3 #34
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #58 0.89 #345 -3.2 #355
Three Pointers 41% #189 0.96 #101 +1.2 #128
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #72 +3.3 #72
Freethrows 0.27 #70 72% #190 0.19 #87
Second Chance 23.3% #8 1.02 #167 0.24 #26
Turnovers 15.9% #225
Total Defense +4.9 #58

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #44 -1.7% #53
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.1% #51 -4.8% #82
Possession Length 15.6 #41 18.1 #305
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #55 0.12 #40
Improvement +2.2 #70 -0.2 #201

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 1.8% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 7.6% 13.8% 4.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.2% 91.5% 75.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.0% 91.4% 75.7%
Average Seed 8.6 8.1 9.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.6% 99.5% 93.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.5% 5.4% 13.2%
First Round76.4% 89.2% 69.9%
Second Round37.8% 47.9% 32.6%
Sweet Sixteen8.6% 11.8% 7.0%
Elite Eight2.8% 3.9% 2.3%
Final Four0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 34.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 26 - 210 - 12
Quad 33 - 013 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 212 Campbell W 96 - 64 96% +8  1 - 0 +26 +16 B- A+ A +9 B+ C- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 308 Northern Illinois W 97 - 72 98% +19  2 - 0 +13 +15 C A+ A+ -3 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 298 Ball St. W 86 - 55 98% +19  3 - 0 +20 +11 A- A- F+ +10 B C+ A-
 Mon, Nov 17 252 SIU Edwardsville W 94 - 69 97% +12  4 - 0 +17 +26 A+ C+ A+ -8 C- D C-
 Fri, Nov 21 15 BYU L 70 - 98 32% -13  4 - 1 -10 +0 C- C B- -8 C B+ D-
 Thu, Nov 27 67 Providence W 104 - 83 69% +14  5 - 1 +29 +16 B+ B+ A+ +10 B A- B
 Fri, Nov 28 51 TCU L 63 - 74 62% -11  5 - 2 -1 -6 F C- D +6 C- A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 63 Northwestern W 85 - 73 77% +16  6 - 2 1 - 0 +18 +15 A+ D+ A+ +3 A F A
 Sat, Dec 6 95 Marquette W 96 - 76 84% +12  7 - 2 +23 +14 A+ F A+ +6 C A+ F+
 Wed, Dec 10 13 @Nebraska L 60 - 90 22% -14  7 - 3 1 - 1 -9 -2 C- C- A -7 D+ D+ B-
 Fri, Dec 19 32 Villanova L 66 - 76 OT 47% -7  7 - 4 +4 +1 C+ B+ D+ +3 A+ C D-
 Mon, Dec 22 294 Central Michigan W 88 - 61 98% +15  8 - 4 +16 +14 A+ F B +3 B A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 254 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80 - 60 97% +14  9 - 4 +12 -3 C F A- +13 A+ A A+
 Sat, Jan 3 8 Purdue L 73 - 89 33% -8  9 - 5 1 - 2 +2 +4 D+ A- B -2 A+ B D
 Tue, Jan 6 35 UCLA W 80 - 72 60% +12  10 - 5 2 - 2 +19 +11 B+ B A+ +8 A B C
 Sat, Jan 10 1 @Michigan W 91 - 88 9% -2  11 - 5 3 - 2 +31 +30 A+ A+ A +1 B A+ D
 Tue, Jan 13 76 @Minnesota W 78 - 75 61% -1  12 - 5 4 - 2 +14 +18 A+ C+ A+ -4 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 114 Rutgers W 96 - 87 89% +13  13 - 5 5 - 2 +9 +19 B- A+ A+ -10 F C+ C-
 Thu, Jan 22 112 @Penn St. W 98 - 71 76% +20  14 - 5 6 - 2 +33 +24 A+ D- A+ +9 A+ B+ F+
 Sun, Jan 25 48 USC L 71 - 73 69% -1  14 - 6 6 - 3 +6 +10 D- A A+ -3 A+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 76 Minnesota W 67 - 63 80% -8  15 - 6 7 - 3 +9 +4 A F+ D+ +5 D+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 36 Ohio St. W 92 - 82 61% +4  16 - 6 8 - 3 +21 +21 A+ C A+ -1 A+ C F
 Sat, Feb 7 30 @Indiana L 78 - 82 34%
 Tue, Feb 10 7 @Illinois L 75 - 86 16%
 Fri, Feb 13 10 Michigan St. L 72 - 76 37%
 Tue, Feb 17 36 @Ohio St. L 79 - 82 38%
 Sun, Feb 22 21 Iowa L 74 - 75 49%
 Wed, Feb 25 82 @Oregon W 79 - 75 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 41 @Washington L 78 - 80 44%
 Wed, Mar 4 107 Maryland W 85 - 72 88%
 Sat, Mar 7 8 @Purdue L 74 - 84 17%
Totals 20 - 11 12 - 8 +14 +9 B+ C+ A +5 B- B+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.5 1.3 0.1 5.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 7.2 4.5 0.2 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 10.9 9.3 1.1 0.0 22.9 6th
7th 0.3 6.7 10.5 1.5 0.0 18.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.8 9.8 3.3 0.1 15.0 8th
9th 0.3 5.1 4.9 0.2 10.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 5.0 0.7 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.3 1.8 1.1 0.1 3.3 11th
12th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.5 3.9 13.4 23.6 26.1 19.2 9.8 3.0 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 21.4% 0.0    0.0
16-4 14.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.5% 100.0% 6.2% 93.8% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.0% 100.0% 4.3% 95.7% 6.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.8% 99.3% 2.0% 97.2% 7.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.7 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.1 99.3%
13-7 19.2% 97.7% 0.8% 96.9% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 4.6 6.6 4.4 1.5 0.1 0.5 97.6%
12-8 26.1% 91.6% 0.7% 90.9% 8.9 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.9 8.0 5.8 1.4 2.2 91.5%
11-9 23.6% 77.9% 0.4% 77.6% 9.7 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.8 6.7 4.6 0.0 5.2 77.9%
10-10 13.4% 47.6% 0.2% 47.4% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 4.2 0.1 7.0 47.5%
9-11 3.9% 12.6% 12.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.4 12.6%
8-12 0.5% 0.5
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 81.2% 0.8% 80.4% 8.6 18.8 81.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%