Mississippi
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#47
Expected Predictive Rating+12.0#37
Pace67.2#246
Improvement+0.4#137

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#41
First Shot+6.1#39
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#184
Layup/Dunks-2.7#271
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#74
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#67
Freethrows+2.9#53
Improvement+0.8#72

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#73
First Shot+6.1#31
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#314
Layups/Dunks+7.4#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#311
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#261
Freethrows+3.3#37
Improvement-0.5#260
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 1.4% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 5.7% 5.9% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 14.5% 15.0% 5.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.4% 43.4% 23.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.6% 42.6% 22.6%
Average Seed 7.5 7.5 8.3
.500 or above 73.4% 74.9% 44.0%
.500 or above in Conference 32.9% 33.7% 18.7%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.3% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 12.3% 11.7% 22.4%
First Four5.7% 5.7% 4.2%
First Round39.4% 40.4% 20.7%
Second Round22.3% 22.9% 11.0%
Sweet Sixteen8.0% 8.2% 3.4%
Elite Eight3.0% 3.1% 0.9%
Final Four1.1% 1.2% 0.4%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Home) - 95.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 11
Quad 24 - 28 - 13
Quad 32 - 011 - 13
Quad 47 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 338   LIU Brooklyn W 90-60 98%     1 - 0 +15.8 +5.9 +8.3
  Nov 08, 2024 234   Grambling St. W 66-64 93%     2 - 0 -4.6 -7.9 +3.3
  Nov 12, 2024 198   South Alabama W 64-54 91%     3 - 0 +5.2 -5.9 +11.8
  Nov 16, 2024 101   Colorado St. W 84-69 68%     4 - 0 +19.8 +23.7 -2.1
  Nov 21, 2024 249   Oral Roberts W 82-65 95%    
  Nov 28, 2024 34   BYU L 74-76 42%    
  Dec 03, 2024 46   @ Louisville L 73-76 39%    
  Dec 07, 2024 355   Lindenwood W 85-58 99%    
  Dec 14, 2024 256   Southern Miss W 86-71 91%    
  Dec 17, 2024 266   Southern W 79-61 96%    
  Dec 21, 2024 297   Queens W 86-66 96%    
  Dec 28, 2024 33   @ Memphis L 74-79 32%    
  Jan 04, 2025 54   Georgia W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 08, 2025 25   @ Arkansas L 71-78 28%    
  Jan 11, 2025 48   LSU W 76-73 61%    
  Jan 14, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 75-86 16%    
  Jan 18, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. L 71-77 30%    
  Jan 22, 2025 26   Texas A&M L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 62   @ Missouri L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 29, 2025 29   Texas L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 01, 2025 3   Auburn L 72-79 28%    
  Feb 04, 2025 10   Kentucky L 77-81 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 48   @ LSU L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 12, 2025 72   @ South Carolina L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 28   Mississippi St. L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 82   @ Vanderbilt L 75-76 50%    
  Feb 26, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 69-82 14%    
  Mar 01, 2025 51   Oklahoma W 73-70 62%    
  Mar 05, 2025 9   Tennessee L 70-75 34%    
  Mar 08, 2025 19   @ Florida L 75-82 27%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.1 1.3 0.1 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.0 2.4 0.3 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 3.7 0.8 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.5 2.0 0.1 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.6 3.7 0.5 0.0 8.3 10th
11th 0.1 2.2 5.1 1.4 0.0 8.8 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 4.6 2.9 0.2 0.0 8.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.9 0.7 0.0 9.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.0 1.3 0.1 8.9 14th
15th 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.4 1.6 0.1 8.4 15th
16th 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.8 16th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.9 5.2 8.3 10.8 12.6 13.5 12.5 10.4 8.4 6.3 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 92.1% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 74.3% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 36.6% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.5% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 2.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.2% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 3.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.2% 99.9% 10.5% 89.4% 4.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 3.7% 99.9% 6.6% 93.3% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 6.3% 98.7% 3.1% 95.6% 6.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.6%
10-8 8.4% 94.9% 1.9% 93.1% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 94.8%
9-9 10.4% 84.0% 1.0% 83.0% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.9 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.1 1.7 83.8%
8-10 12.5% 56.8% 0.6% 56.3% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.1 0.2 0.0 5.4 56.6%
7-11 13.5% 25.6% 0.2% 25.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 0.3 10.0 25.5%
6-12 12.6% 8.0% 0.2% 7.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 11.6 7.8%
5-13 10.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.7%
4-14 8.3% 0.1% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 8.3 0.1%
3-15 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 5.2
2-16 2.9% 2.9
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 42.4% 1.3% 41.0% 7.5 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.6 4.0 4.8 5.4 5.7 5.5 5.0 5.5 0.8 0.0 57.6 41.6%