Tennessee
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.4#9
Expected Predictive Rating+18.7#8
Pace71.7#108
Improvement+0.3#142

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#18
First Shot+9.0#16
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#242
Layup/Dunks+8.2#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#251
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#185
Freethrows+2.2#69
Improvement+0.9#66

Defense
Total Defense+9.5#5
First Shot+10.2#4
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#231
Layups/Dunks+8.0#12
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#254
Freethrows+0.2#177
Improvement-0.6#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.0% 5.7% 2.3%
#1 Seed 19.6% 22.0% 10.8%
Top 2 Seed 38.8% 42.9% 23.5%
Top 4 Seed 67.7% 71.9% 51.6%
Top 6 Seed 83.1% 86.1% 71.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.8% 97.0% 91.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.0% 96.4% 90.0%
Average Seed 3.6 3.4 4.5
.500 or above 98.9% 99.4% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 88.5% 90.1% 82.2%
Conference Champion 20.5% 22.3% 13.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.8%
First Four1.7% 1.4% 3.0%
First Round95.0% 96.4% 89.6%
Second Round81.7% 84.3% 72.2%
Sweet Sixteen53.2% 55.8% 43.2%
Elite Eight29.9% 32.1% 21.6%
Final Four15.9% 17.2% 10.9%
Championship Game8.1% 8.9% 5.2%
National Champion4.0% 4.4% 2.4%

Next Game: Virginia (Neutral) - 78.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 7
Quad 26 - 115 - 8
Quad 34 - 018 - 8
Quad 46 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 219   Gardner-Webb W 80-64 97%     1 - 0 +10.3 +7.4 +3.5
  Nov 09, 2024 46   @ Louisville W 77-55 67%     2 - 0 +34.9 +13.2 +22.6
  Nov 13, 2024 213   Montana W 92-57 97%     3 - 0 +29.5 +16.8 +13.5
  Nov 17, 2024 238   Austin Peay W 103-68 98%     4 - 0 +28.1 +23.8 +3.4
  Nov 21, 2024 58   Virginia W 66-58 79%    
  Nov 27, 2024 301   Tennessee Martin W 90-62 99.5%   
  Dec 03, 2024 93   Syracuse W 85-70 92%    
  Dec 10, 2024 38   Miami (FL) W 79-73 70%    
  Dec 14, 2024 31   @ Illinois W 79-77 57%    
  Dec 17, 2024 258   Western Carolina W 82-57 99%    
  Dec 23, 2024 164   Middle Tennessee W 82-61 97%    
  Dec 31, 2024 197   Norfolk St. W 82-60 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 25   Arkansas W 78-71 73%    
  Jan 07, 2025 19   @ Florida W 80-79 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 29   @ Texas W 74-72 56%    
  Jan 15, 2025 54   Georgia W 79-68 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 82   @ Vanderbilt W 80-73 74%    
  Jan 21, 2025 28   Mississippi St. W 78-70 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 28, 2025 10   Kentucky W 82-78 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 19   Florida W 83-77 71%    
  Feb 05, 2025 62   Missouri W 79-67 84%    
  Feb 08, 2025 51   @ Oklahoma W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 11, 2025 10   @ Kentucky L 79-81 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 82   Vanderbilt W 83-70 88%    
  Feb 22, 2025 26   @ Texas A&M W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 25, 2025 48   @ LSU W 77-72 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 7   Alabama W 82-79 59%    
  Mar 05, 2025 47   @ Mississippi W 75-70 66%    
  Mar 08, 2025 72   South Carolina W 78-65 86%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 4.4 6.2 5.0 2.5 0.7 20.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 5.5 5.9 2.8 0.5 0.0 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.1 5.3 1.7 0.2 13.5 3rd
4th 0.5 3.7 5.0 1.5 0.1 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 4.6 1.8 0.1 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 2.8 0.5 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.7 0.9 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.4 0.1 3.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.2 5.2 7.9 10.3 12.3 14.0 13.9 12.2 9.2 5.5 2.6 0.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 98.8% 2.5    2.4 0.2 0.0
16-2 91.4% 5.0    4.1 0.9 0.0
15-3 67.6% 6.2    3.6 2.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 36.3% 4.4    1.5 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.5% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.5% 20.5 12.5 5.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.6% 100.0% 44.6% 55.4% 1.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.5% 100.0% 36.7% 63.3% 1.3 4.1 1.3 0.1 100.0%
15-3 9.2% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 1.5 5.1 3.4 0.6 0.1 100.0%
14-4 12.2% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 1.9 4.2 5.1 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.9% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 2.5 2.4 4.7 4.5 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.0% 100.0% 12.6% 87.4% 3.3 0.9 2.9 4.6 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.3% 100.0% 8.0% 91.9% 4.2 0.2 1.0 3.0 3.7 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 10.3% 99.7% 4.7% 95.0% 5.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.8 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
9-9 7.9% 98.3% 3.8% 94.5% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.2%
8-10 5.2% 90.1% 2.6% 87.5% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.5 89.9%
7-11 3.2% 67.8% 1.4% 66.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.0 67.3%
6-12 1.7% 32.8% 0.3% 32.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.2 32.6%
5-13 0.9% 7.8% 7.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 7.8%
4-14 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 11.0 0.0 0.3 0.7%
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 95.8% 15.3% 80.5% 3.6 19.6 19.2 16.4 12.5 9.1 6.4 4.2 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.6 0.3 4.2 95.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 94.9 5.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.3 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.9 7.1