Tennessee
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+20.5#3
Expected Predictive Rating+25.3#2
Pace66.1#258
Improvement-1.6#287

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#14
First Shot+6.1#40
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#60
Layup/Dunks+4.0#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#115
Freethrows+1.4#98
Improvement-2.3#331

Defense
Total Defense+12.2#1
First Shot+10.9#2
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#78
Layups/Dunks+7.5#14
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#65
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#125
Freethrows+0.5#156
Improvement+0.7#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 15.1% 15.2% 9.9%
#1 Seed 51.9% 52.3% 32.9%
Top 2 Seed 81.7% 82.1% 62.5%
Top 4 Seed 96.6% 96.8% 88.5%
Top 6 Seed 99.0% 99.1% 95.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
Average Seed 1.8 1.8 2.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.6% 95.7% 90.1%
Conference Champion 27.3% 27.4% 19.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 99.7%
Second Round97.1% 97.2% 93.6%
Sweet Sixteen74.1% 74.3% 65.3%
Elite Eight50.2% 50.4% 38.2%
Final Four30.7% 30.9% 21.5%
Championship Game17.8% 17.9% 11.9%
National Champion10.0% 10.1% 6.2%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Home) - 98.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 58 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 113 - 6
Quad 25 - 018 - 6
Quad 34 - 022 - 6
Quad 46 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 238   Gardner-Webb W 80-64 99%     1 - 0 +8.7 +5.9 +3.4
  Nov 09, 2024 51   @ Louisville W 77-55 76%     2 - 0 +35.2 +13.5 +22.6
  Nov 13, 2024 215   Montana W 92-57 98%     3 - 0 +29.5 +17.0 +13.3
  Nov 17, 2024 273   Austin Peay W 103-68 99%     4 - 0 +25.9 +25.9 -0.9
  Nov 21, 2024 90   Virginia W 64-42 90%     5 - 0 +28.2 +8.1 +23.6
  Nov 22, 2024 12   Baylor W 77-62 66%     6 - 0 +31.1 +20.0 +13.3
  Nov 27, 2024 324   Tennessee Martin W 78-35 99%     7 - 0 +30.7 +10.9 +25.8
  Dec 03, 2024 95   Syracuse W 96-70 94%     8 - 0 +28.7 +22.7 +5.9
  Dec 10, 2024 93   Miami (FL) W 75-62 91%     9 - 0 +19.0 +3.1 +16.4
  Dec 14, 2024 16   @ Illinois W 66-64 59%     10 - 0 +20.2 +6.4 +14.0
  Dec 17, 2024 311   Western Carolina W 84-36 99%     11 - 0 +36.6 +4.7 +29.8
  Dec 23, 2024 131   Middle Tennessee W 79-57 98%    
  Dec 31, 2024 181   Norfolk St. W 81-56 99%    
  Jan 04, 2025 29   Arkansas W 77-66 84%    
  Jan 07, 2025 7   @ Florida L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 31   @ Texas W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 15, 2025 32   Georgia W 74-63 85%    
  Jan 18, 2025 50   @ Vanderbilt W 77-70 75%    
  Jan 21, 2025 28   Mississippi St. W 75-65 82%    
  Jan 25, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 71-76 31%    
  Jan 28, 2025 9   Kentucky W 80-74 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 7   Florida W 77-72 69%    
  Feb 05, 2025 55   Missouri W 79-65 89%    
  Feb 08, 2025 34   @ Oklahoma W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 11, 2025 9   @ Kentucky W 77-76 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 50   Vanderbilt W 80-67 89%    
  Feb 22, 2025 25   @ Texas A&M W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 25, 2025 56   @ LSU W 75-67 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 8   Alabama W 81-75 71%    
  Mar 05, 2025 27   @ Mississippi W 71-67 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 69   South Carolina W 75-60 91%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.9 8.2 6.9 3.4 0.7 27.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.7 7.9 8.1 4.1 0.9 0.0 24.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 6.2 5.8 1.8 0.1 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.1 4.5 1.2 0.1 10.5 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 3.9 1.2 0.1 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 1.7 0.1 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.5 7.8 11.4 14.9 16.9 15.8 12.5 7.8 3.4 0.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 99.4% 3.4    3.1 0.2
16-2 88.3% 6.9    5.4 1.5 0.0
15-3 66.1% 8.2    4.9 3.0 0.3 0.0
14-4 37.0% 5.9    2.2 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.9% 2.0    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.3% 27.3 16.6 8.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 100.0% 53.1% 46.9% 1.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.4% 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 1.1 3.1 0.2 100.0%
16-2 7.8% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 1.1 6.9 0.9 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.5% 100.0% 30.2% 69.8% 1.2 10.2 2.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.8% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 1.3 11.5 4.2 0.2 100.0%
13-5 16.9% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 1.5 9.9 6.2 0.8 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.9% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 1.7 6.1 6.9 1.8 0.2 100.0%
11-7 11.4% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 2.1 2.7 5.4 2.8 0.5 0.0 100.0%
10-8 7.8% 100.0% 8.2% 91.8% 2.6 0.8 2.7 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 4.5% 100.0% 5.8% 94.2% 3.3 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 2.6% 100.0% 2.8% 97.2% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 1.1% 99.8% 2.5% 97.4% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
6-12 0.4% 96.4% 96.4% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.4%
5-13 0.1% 81.8% 81.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.8%
4-14 0.0% 34.8% 34.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 34.8%
3-15 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 20.7% 79.3% 1.8 51.9 29.8 10.7 4.2 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.0 96.6 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 87.1 12.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.6 3.4