Alabama
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.3 #20
Expected Predictive Rating +17.1 #24
Pace 82.5 #2
Improvement -3.4 #319

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #3 A- B+ A B- B
Defense #53 A- B D+ B- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #243 1.31 #40 +1.4 #127
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #349 1.07 #2 -2.8 #315
Three Pointers 54% #5 1.08 #84 +8.7 #9
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #21 +7.3 #21
Freethrows 0.32 #114 76% #71 0.24 #88
Second Chance 34.7% #72 1.17 #34 0.41 #35
Turnovers 12.4% #7
Total Offense +12.2 #3

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #267 0.97 #15 +5.0 #40
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #20 0.71 #100 -2.2 #332
Three Pointers 36% #304 0.93 #64 +4.0 #36
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #22 +6.8 #22
Freethrows 0.28 #115 66% #5 0.19 #61
Second Chance 28.5% #94 0.90 #31 0.26 #48
Turnovers 14.5% #306
Total Defense +5.1 #53

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #31 -2.3% #26
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.4% #31 -11.2% #25
Possession Length 14.1 #3 17.8 #274
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #32 0.14 #66
Improvement -3.7 #340 +0.3 #171

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 3.5% 4.6% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 31.0% 37.3% 17.4%
Top 6 Seed 71.7% 77.8% 58.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.3% 99.3% 96.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.1% 99.2% 95.8%
Average Seed 5.5 5.2 6.2
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 96.9% 85.8%
Conference Champion 7.4% 10.2% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.7% 0.9% 3.4%
First Round97.8% 99.1% 95.0%
Second Round78.8% 81.8% 72.4%
Sweet Sixteen37.7% 40.5% 31.6%
Elite Eight14.9% 16.1% 12.4%
Final Four6.1% 6.5% 5.1%
Championship Game2.1% 2.4% 1.5%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.5%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Home) - 68.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 10
Quad 26 - 115 - 12
Quad 36 - 020 - 12
Quad 42 - 022 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 282 North Dakota W 91 - 62 99% +17  1 - 0 +19 +6 B F+ C +11 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 19 @St. John's W 103 - 96 38% +4  2 - 0 +28 +22 A- A A+ +4 B- B+ C
 Thu, Nov 13 8 Purdue L 80 - 87 47% -2  2 - 1 +11 +14 A- D A+ -3 B+ B B-
 Wed, Nov 19 7 Illinois W 90 - 86 35% +1  3 - 1 +25 +15 A+ A+ C +10 B+ A+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 11 Gonzaga L 85 - 95 41% -1  3 - 2 +10 +15 A+ B- A- -4 A- F C
 Tue, Nov 25 128 UNLV W 115 - 76 92% +16  4 - 2 +41 +30 A+ A+ B+ +7 B A D-
 Wed, Nov 26 107 Maryland W 105 - 72 89% +20  5 - 2 +37 +26 A+ A+ B- +8 B- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 33 Clemson W 90 - 84 72% +9  6 - 2 +17 +22 A+ A A+ -5 B- A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 342 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 55 99% +27  7 - 2 +27 +8 D- B- A+ +15 B A- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 2 Arizona L 75 - 96 26% -7  7 - 3 +3 +8 A+ F C- -4 B+ A- F
 Wed, Dec 17 70 South Florida W 104 - 93 87% +8  8 - 3 +16 +21 B+ A+ B- -6 B+ F B
 Sun, Dec 21 142 Kennesaw St. W 92 - 81 93% +18  9 - 3 +12 +9 C C+ A+ +2 B F+ B+
 Mon, Dec 29 80 Yale W 102 - 78 89% +19  10 - 3 +28 +29 B+ A+ A+ -0 A+ F+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 26 Kentucky W 89 - 74 67% +11  11 - 3 1 - 0 +28 +20 A+ A- B+ +7 A+ C+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 12 @Vanderbilt L 90 - 96 34% -5  11 - 4 1 - 1 +16 +13 D- A+ A +4 A+ C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 31 Texas L 88 - 92 71% -5  11 - 5 1 - 2 +8 +15 B+ B- A+ -7 B C F
 Tue, Jan 13 73 @Mississippi St. W 97 - 82 73% +5  12 - 5 2 - 2 +26 +22 A- A- A+ +3 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 55 @Oklahoma W 83 - 81 67% -2  13 - 5 3 - 2 +15 +9 C+ B B- +6 A+ C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 18 Tennessee L 73 - 79 61% +1  13 - 6 3 - 3 +9 +11 C+ A- A+ -3 C A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 27 54 Missouri W 90 - 64 83% +12  14 - 6 4 - 3 +33 +14 B C A+ +18 A+ B- C
 Sun, Feb 1 5 @Florida L 77 - 100 24% -11  14 - 7 4 - 4 +2 +9 A+ B+ F -5 C B+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 27 Texas A&M W 93 - 88 68%
 Sat, Feb 7 28 @Auburn L 88 - 89 46%
 Wed, Feb 11 59 @Mississippi W 84 - 79 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 91 South Carolina W 90 - 76 91%
 Tue, Feb 17 22 Arkansas W 95 - 91 63%
 Wed, Feb 18 22 Arkansas W 95 - 91 64%
 Sat, Feb 21 49 @LSU W 88 - 85 63%
 Wed, Feb 25 73 Mississippi St. W 91 - 78 88%
 Sat, Feb 28 18 @Tennessee L 80 - 83 39%
 Tue, Mar 3 34 @Georgia W 95 - 94 51%
 Sat, Mar 7 28 Auburn W 91 - 86 68%
Totals 21 - 11 11 - 8 +17 +12 A- B+ A +5 A- B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.5 3.6 1.1 7.4 1st
2nd 0.1 2.9 7.0 2.4 0.1 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 9.0 3.6 0.1 13.8 3rd
4th 0.2 5.5 7.0 0.6 13.2 4th
5th 1.5 8.7 2.2 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.3 5.3 5.9 0.2 11.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 7.4 1.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.3 4.1 3.4 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.3 0.4 5.4 9th
10th 0.5 1.9 0.8 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.5 10.4 18.2 22.5 21.4 13.6 6.1 1.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 93.8% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 59.2% 3.6    1.2 1.8 0.6 0.1
13-5 18.1% 2.5    0.2 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1
12-6 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.4% 7.4 2.2 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.2% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 2.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.1% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 3.1 0.3 1.3 2.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.6% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 3.8 0.0 0.9 4.4 5.0 2.8 0.5 100.0%
12-6 21.4% 100.0% 11.6% 88.4% 4.6 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.5 7.9 3.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
11-7 22.5% 100.0% 6.4% 93.6% 5.5 0.1 0.7 2.8 7.3 7.4 3.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 18.2% 99.9% 5.1% 94.8% 6.4 0.1 0.7 2.9 6.1 5.6 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 10.4% 98.6% 3.1% 95.5% 7.7 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.7 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.2 98.5%
8-10 4.5% 90.2% 3.1% 87.1% 9.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.0 0.4 89.9%
7-11 1.6% 59.2% 1.2% 57.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.7 58.7%
6-12 0.4% 13.8% 13.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 13.8%
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.3% 9.1% 89.2% 5.5 1.7 98.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.6 39.7 57.1 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 2.5 18.8 31.3 35.4 14.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 2.3 20.3 31.6 41.8 6.3