Alabama
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.9#9
Expected Predictive Rating+20.1#9
Pace81.2#4
Improvement-1.5#275

Offense
Total Offense+11.9#4
First Shot+7.8#19
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#15
Layup/Dunks+5.4#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#117
Freethrows+3.8#15
Improvement-1.3#284

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#37
First Shot+4.6#47
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#73
Layups/Dunks+2.7#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#12
Freethrows+0.7#135
Improvement-0.2#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.6% 4.8% 1.8%
#1 Seed 23.1% 23.6% 11.6%
Top 2 Seed 50.9% 51.8% 31.9%
Top 4 Seed 82.6% 83.3% 67.7%
Top 6 Seed 92.0% 92.4% 82.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.4% 98.5% 95.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.2% 98.3% 95.2%
Average Seed 3.0 2.9 3.9
.500 or above 99.4% 99.5% 97.0%
.500 or above in Conference 83.7% 84.1% 75.0%
Conference Champion 9.8% 10.1% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 1.0%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 2.5%
First Round97.9% 98.0% 94.8%
Second Round89.6% 90.0% 80.9%
Sweet Sixteen59.4% 59.8% 50.5%
Elite Eight33.8% 34.2% 24.9%
Final Four17.0% 17.3% 11.3%
Championship Game8.3% 8.5% 5.2%
National Champion3.8% 3.9% 2.3%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Home) - 95.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 87 - 8
Quad 1b5 - 212 - 9
Quad 25 - 117 - 10
Quad 34 - 021 - 10
Quad 42 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 176   UNC Asheville W 110-54 97%     1 - 0 +52.2 +27.2 +21.9
  Nov 08, 2024 105   Arkansas St. W 88-79 93%     2 - 0 +10.4 +1.5 +7.4
  Nov 11, 2024 91   McNeese St. W 72-64 91%     3 - 0 +11.1 +4.8 +6.7
  Nov 15, 2024 27   @ Purdue L 78-87 54%     3 - 1 +7.9 +13.8 -6.2
  Nov 20, 2024 21   Illinois W 100-87 62%     4 - 1 +27.8 +20.7 +5.3
  Nov 26, 2024 5   Houston W 85-80 OT 43%     5 - 1 +24.7 +16.8 +7.5
  Nov 27, 2024 63   Rutgers W 95-90 81%     6 - 1 +13.4 +15.4 -2.6
  Nov 30, 2024 23   Oregon L 81-83 63%     6 - 2 +12.5 +11.1 +1.5
  Dec 04, 2024 22   @ North Carolina W 94-79 51%     7 - 2 +32.6 +13.6 +16.6
  Dec 14, 2024 46   Creighton W 83-75 82%     8 - 2 +15.9 +7.9 +7.5
  Dec 18, 2024 275   @ North Dakota W 97-90 96%     9 - 2 +3.7 +13.4 -10.1
  Dec 22, 2024 116   Kent St. W 81-54 94%     10 - 2 +26.9 +5.2 +19.6
  Dec 29, 2024 120   South Dakota St. W 92-74 96%    
  Jan 04, 2025 35   Oklahoma W 87-78 79%    
  Jan 08, 2025 62   @ South Carolina W 82-76 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 25   @ Texas A&M W 79-78 53%    
  Jan 14, 2025 28   Mississippi W 85-78 75%    
  Jan 18, 2025 16   @ Kentucky L 90-91 47%    
  Jan 21, 2025 50   Vanderbilt W 92-82 83%    
  Jan 25, 2025 56   LSU W 89-78 85%    
  Jan 29, 2025 24   @ Mississippi St. W 83-82 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 36   Georgia W 85-76 79%    
  Feb 08, 2025 31   @ Arkansas W 86-84 58%    
  Feb 11, 2025 33   @ Texas W 81-79 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 1   Auburn L 86-89 41%    
  Feb 19, 2025 54   @ Missouri W 87-82 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 16   Kentucky W 93-88 68%    
  Feb 25, 2025 24   Mississippi St. W 85-79 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 3   @ Tennessee L 76-81 32%    
  Mar 05, 2025 7   Florida W 88-86 56%    
  Mar 08, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 83-92 22%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 9.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.9 4.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 6.2 5.0 1.3 0.1 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.7 5.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.9 5.5 1.4 0.1 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 5.0 1.9 0.1 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.9 2.9 0.3 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.6 1.3 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.7 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.7 7.5 11.0 13.7 15.6 14.9 12.2 8.5 5.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.7% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 91.3% 1.9    1.5 0.4 0.0
15-3 66.0% 3.4    1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 31.9% 2.7    0.8 1.3 0.5 0.1
13-5 8.4% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 5.0 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 51.0% 49.0% 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.0% 100.0% 28.3% 71.7% 1.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.1% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 1.2 3.8 1.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.5% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 1.4 5.2 3.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.2% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 1.7 5.3 5.7 1.1 0.1 100.0%
12-6 14.9% 100.0% 11.3% 88.7% 2.0 3.9 7.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 15.6% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 2.5 1.8 6.3 5.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 13.7% 100.0% 4.4% 95.6% 3.1 0.5 2.9 5.7 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 11.0% 100.0% 3.5% 96.5% 3.8 0.1 0.9 3.4 3.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 7.5% 99.9% 2.4% 97.5% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
7-11 4.7% 98.3% 1.0% 97.4% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 98.3%
6-12 2.4% 87.0% 0.3% 86.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.3 87.0%
5-13 1.1% 39.6% 0.4% 39.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.7 39.4%
4-14 0.4% 3.6% 3.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.6%
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 98.4% 9.5% 88.8% 3.0 23.1 27.8 20.3 11.4 6.1 3.2 2.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 1.6 98.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.3 7.7