Alabama
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+21.1#5
Expected Predictive Rating+21.8#5
Pace84.2#2
Improvement+3.1#63

Offense
Total Offense+14.2#3
First Shot+8.8#15
After Offensive Rebound+5.4#5
Layup/Dunks+4.7#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#91
Freethrows+3.8#16
Improvement+2.9#50

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#30
First Shot+5.6#40
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#70
Layups/Dunks+3.1#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#10
Freethrows+1.5#80
Improvement+0.2#181
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.9% 7.0% 3.2%
#1 Seed 44.5% 48.2% 36.1%
Top 2 Seed 96.0% 97.8% 91.9%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.6 1.5 1.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.7% 98.8% 98.6%
Sweet Sixteen73.1% 72.7% 74.0%
Elite Eight49.4% 49.4% 49.4%
Final Four26.5% 26.9% 25.6%
Championship Game13.4% 13.6% 12.9%
National Champion5.7% 5.9% 5.3%

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a9 - 69 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 211 - 8
Quad 28 - 019 - 8
Quad 34 - 023 - 8
Quad 42 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 204   UNC Asheville W 110-54 98%     1 - 0 +50.8 +25.9 +21.8
  Nov 08, 2024 98   Arkansas St. W 88-79 95%     2 - 0 +11.2 +1.5 +8.1
  Nov 11, 2024 69   McNeese St. W 72-64 92%     3 - 0 +13.4 +4.9 +8.9
  Nov 15, 2024 16   @ Purdue L 78-87 54%     3 - 1 +11.0 +14.4 -3.8
  Nov 20, 2024 17   Illinois W 100-87 66%     4 - 1 +29.8 +19.9 +8.2
  Nov 26, 2024 4   Houston W 85-80 OT 43%     5 - 1 +27.8 +17.5 +9.9
  Nov 27, 2024 65   Rutgers W 95-90 88%     6 - 1 +13.3 +13.9 -1.2
  Nov 30, 2024 35   Oregon L 81-83 76%     6 - 2 +11.6 +10.8 +1.0
  Dec 04, 2024 34   @ North Carolina W 94-79 68%     7 - 2 +31.4 +12.4 +16.7
  Dec 14, 2024 32   Creighton W 83-75 83%     8 - 2 +19.1 +9.8 +8.8
  Dec 18, 2024 264   @ North Dakota W 97-90 98%     9 - 2 +4.1 +12.7 -9.1
  Dec 22, 2024 133   Kent St. W 81-54 97%     10 - 2 +25.9 +2.0 +21.8
  Dec 29, 2024 134   South Dakota St. W 105-82 97%     11 - 2 +21.8 +21.7 -1.9
  Jan 04, 2025 38   Oklahoma W 107-79 85%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +38.2 +26.9 +8.6
  Jan 08, 2025 71   @ South Carolina W 88-68 83%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +30.8 +17.4 +12.4
  Jan 11, 2025 22   @ Texas A&M W 94-88 58%     14 - 2 3 - 0 +25.1 +21.7 +2.7
  Jan 14, 2025 29   Mississippi L 64-74 82%     14 - 3 3 - 1 +1.6 -8.6 +11.0
  Jan 18, 2025 14   @ Kentucky W 102-97 53%     15 - 3 4 - 1 +25.4 +25.3 -0.4
  Jan 21, 2025 51   Vanderbilt W 103-87 88%     16 - 3 5 - 1 +24.2 +17.3 +4.6
  Jan 25, 2025 86   LSU W 80-73 94%     17 - 3 6 - 1 +10.6 +4.0 +6.1
  Jan 29, 2025 30   @ Mississippi St. W 88-84 65%     18 - 3 7 - 1 +21.0 +22.8 -1.7
  Feb 01, 2025 33   Georgia W 90-69 83%     19 - 3 8 - 1 +32.0 +14.3 +15.5
  Feb 08, 2025 37   @ Arkansas W 85-81 70%     20 - 3 9 - 1 +19.8 +18.1 +1.5
  Feb 11, 2025 42   @ Texas W 103-80 74%     21 - 3 10 - 1 +37.6 +34.5 +2.5
  Feb 15, 2025 2   Auburn L 85-94 48%     21 - 4 10 - 2 +12.5 +10.7 +2.8
  Feb 19, 2025 18   @ Missouri L 98-110 56%     21 - 5 10 - 3 +7.5 +19.4 -10.6
  Feb 22, 2025 14   Kentucky W 96-83 73%     22 - 5 11 - 3 +27.9 +15.2 +11.1
  Feb 25, 2025 30   Mississippi St. W 111-73 82%     23 - 5 12 - 3 +49.5 +32.6 +13.6
  Mar 01, 2025 6   @ Tennessee L 76-79 43%     23 - 6 12 - 4 +20.0 +11.7 +8.5
  Mar 05, 2025 3   Florida L 94-99 51%     23 - 7 12 - 5 +15.8 +18.1 -1.7
  Mar 08, 2025 2   @ Auburn W 93-91 OT 28%     24 - 7 13 - 5 +29.0 +16.7 +12.0
Projected Record 24 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 1.6 44.5 51.6 3.9 0.1 100.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 1.6 44.5 51.6 3.9 0.1 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.0% 100.0% 1.4 63.6 35.8 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 17.6% 100.0% 1.5 49.7 49.3 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 36.5% 100.0% 1.6 41.2 55.5 3.3
Lose Out 30.9% 100.0% 1.7 36.1 55.9 7.8 0.2