Indiana
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.8 #30
Expected Predictive Rating +14.0 #36
Pace 68.5 #186
Improvement -1.0 #231

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #25 A- C B+ B+ B+
Defense #44 A- B- C C- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #172 1.30 #46 +3.0 #81
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #356 1.00 #5 -3.7 #345
Three Pointers 53% #15 1.12 #45 +8.8 #8
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #13 +8.0 #15
Freethrows 0.34 #74 78% #16 0.26 #31
Second Chance 30.9% #168 1.07 #115 0.33 #137
Turnovers 13.6% #27
Total Offense +9.2 #25

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #272 0.96 #11 +5.3 #32
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #34 0.70 #91 -1.7 #310
Three Pointers 38% #277 0.94 #71 +3.3 #58
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #18 +6.9 #18
Freethrows 0.31 #217 74% #293 0.23 #238
Second Chance 26.2% #46 1.06 #246 0.28 #91
Turnovers 16.9% #164
Total Defense +5.6 #44

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.1% #23 -2.0% #35
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.7% #21 -11.7% #21
Possession Length 17.0 #138 18.0 #294
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #149 0.12 #34
Improvement +1.3 #109 -2.3 #308

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 2.8% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 12.9% 19.1% 6.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.5% 88.1% 67.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.2% 87.9% 67.5%
Average Seed 8.3 7.9 8.9
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 83.7% 93.4% 72.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.2% 5.7% 13.1%
First Round74.8% 86.0% 62.3%
Second Round41.9% 50.1% 32.8%
Sweet Sixteen12.0% 14.8% 8.8%
Elite Eight4.5% 5.7% 3.2%
Final Four1.4% 1.7% 1.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: USC (Away) - 52.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 23 - 17 - 12
Quad 36 - 014 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 293 Alabama A&M W 98 - 51 98% +31  1 - 0 +36 +20 A+ C C+ +16 A A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 9 95 Marquette W 100 - 77 80% +12  2 - 0 +29 +23 A+ B A+ +4 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 254 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 101 - 70 97% +13  3 - 0 +23 +22 A+ B+ A+ +0 D B- A+
 Sun, Nov 16 248 Incarnate Word W 69 - 61 97% +10  4 - 0 -0 -3 D- D+ C+ +3 B B C-
 Thu, Nov 20 240 Lindenwood W 73 - 53 97% +14  5 - 0 +13 -2 F C A+ +14 A+ C C
 Tue, Nov 25 92 Kansas St. W 86 - 69 86% +13  6 - 0 +20 +8 A+ C- D- +11 B A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 236 Bethune-Cookman W 100 - 56 97% +26  7 - 0 +37 +23 A+ D A+ +13 A+ B D+
 Wed, Dec 3 76 @Minnesota L 64 - 73 66% -1  7 - 1 0 - 1 +2 +1 C- C- A+ +0 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 16 Louisville L 78 - 87 38% -12  7 - 2 +9 +8 C A+ C +1 C- A+ B
 Tue, Dec 9 112 Penn St. W 113 - 72 91% +28  8 - 2 1 - 1 +41 +32 A+ A+ A +7 A- C A
 Sat, Dec 13 26 @Kentucky L 60 - 72 35% +0  8 - 3 +7 -1 D- C F +7 A+ C F
 Sat, Dec 20 355 Chicago St. W 78 - 58 99% +18  9 - 3 +3 -2 B F+ C- +5 C+ A D
 Mon, Dec 22 174 Siena W 81 - 60 95% +18  10 - 3 +17 +7 B F+ D+ +10 A+ B- F+
 Sun, Jan 4 41 Washington W 90 - 80 70% +7  11 - 3 2 - 1 +19 +30 A+ A+ A+ -10 B D F
 Wed, Jan 7 107 @Maryland W 84 - 66 78% +6  12 - 3 3 - 1 +25 +17 C+ B+ C+ +9 A C C-
 Sat, Jan 10 13 Nebraska L 77 - 83 47% +1  12 - 4 3 - 2 +9 +16 A A+ C- -7 C- C C-
 Tue, Jan 13 10 @Michigan St. L 60 - 81 21% -5  12 - 5 3 - 3 +2 +6 A+ C+ D- -6 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 21 Iowa L 57 - 74 54% -9  12 - 6 3 - 4 -3 +3 B+ F+ A+ -10 C- A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 20 1 @Michigan L 72 - 86 11% -14  12 - 7 3 - 5 +14 +14 A+ F+ A +0 C+ B- B+
 Fri, Jan 23 114 @Rutgers W 82 - 59 79% +13  13 - 7 4 - 5 +29 +27 A+ D+ A+ +6 A B+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 8 Purdue W 72 - 67 38% +5  14 - 7 5 - 5 +23 +14 A+ B A+ +9 A- A- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 35 @UCLA W 98 - 97 2OT 42% -0  15 - 7 6 - 5 +18 +13 B- C+ A+ +5 A+ F D
 Tue, Feb 3 48 @USC W 78 - 77 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 37 Wisconsin W 82 - 78 66%
 Mon, Feb 9 82 Oregon W 80 - 69 85%
 Sun, Feb 15 7 @Illinois L 73 - 82 19%
 Fri, Feb 20 8 @Purdue L 72 - 81 20%
 Tue, Feb 24 63 Northwestern W 79 - 70 80%
 Sun, Mar 1 10 Michigan St. L 71 - 73 41%
 Wed, Mar 4 76 Minnesota W 75 - 65 83%
 Sat, Mar 7 36 @Ohio St. L 77 - 79 44%
Totals 20 - 11 11 - 9 +15 +9 A- C B+ +6 A- B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.1 1.9 4th
5th 1.0 3.9 1.0 5.9 5th
6th 1.1 7.1 4.6 0.2 12.9 6th
7th 0.4 6.8 9.1 1.1 17.3 7th
8th 0.0 2.8 11.6 3.3 0.1 17.7 8th
9th 0.9 8.6 7.3 0.4 17.2 9th
10th 0.2 4.6 8.0 1.2 13.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 4.8 2.0 0.0 8.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.4 0.0 3.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.9 11.6 21.8 27.9 20.9 10.2 2.7 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.2% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.7% 100.0% 4.6% 95.4% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 100.0%
13-7 10.2% 99.2% 2.9% 96.3% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 2.8 3.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.1%
12-8 20.9% 96.3% 1.3% 94.9% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 4.9 6.2 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.8 96.2%
11-9 27.9% 88.3% 1.2% 87.1% 8.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 6.0 7.4 5.7 1.7 0.0 3.3 88.2%
10-10 21.8% 73.1% 0.6% 72.5% 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.5 5.5 4.3 0.1 5.9 72.9%
9-11 11.6% 37.8% 0.3% 37.5% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.8 0.1 7.2 37.6%
8-12 3.9% 10.4% 10.4% 11.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 3.5 10.4%
7-13 0.8% 2.6% 2.6% 11.0 0.0 0.7 2.6%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 78.5% 1.2% 77.3% 8.3 21.5 78.2%