Indiana
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#53
Expected Predictive Rating+11.7#49
Pace70.7#113
Improvement-1.2#243

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#55
First Shot+1.8#122
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#15
Layup/Dunks+6.2#14
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#167
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#342
Freethrows+1.4#95
Improvement+0.2#175

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#61
First Shot+2.7#91
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#49
Layups/Dunks-0.5#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#181
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#166
Freethrows+2.3#43
Improvement-1.4#265
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.8% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.8% 50.1% 22.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.3% 49.7% 22.2%
Average Seed 9.7 9.3 9.9
.500 or above 90.0% 98.7% 87.9%
.500 or above in Conference 25.1% 50.1% 19.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.1% 2.4%
First Four9.5% 12.5% 8.8%
First Round22.9% 43.6% 18.1%
Second Round9.4% 18.7% 7.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 3.7% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.5% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Away) - 18.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 54 - 13
Quad 24 - 18 - 14
Quad 35 - 013 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 266   SIU Edwardsville W 80-61 95%     1 - 0 +10.6 +2.1 +7.7
  Nov 10, 2024 332   Eastern Illinois W 90-55 97%     2 - 0 +21.8 +10.5 +10.3
  Nov 16, 2024 79   South Carolina W 87-71 69%     3 - 0 +20.9 +16.2 +4.3
  Nov 21, 2024 159   UNC Greensboro W 69-58 87%     4 - 0 +8.9 -2.8 +12.1
  Nov 27, 2024 27   Louisville L 61-89 34%     4 - 1 -13.6 -7.6 -5.2
  Nov 28, 2024 11   Gonzaga L 73-89 23%     4 - 2 +1.7 +1.5 +1.2
  Nov 29, 2024 66   Providence W 89-73 58%     5 - 2 +24.1 +24.7 +0.3
  Dec 03, 2024 181   Sam Houston St. W 97-71 89%     6 - 2 +22.4 +11.9 +8.1
  Dec 06, 2024 173   Miami (OH) W 76-57 88%     7 - 2 +16.1 +4.2 +12.7
  Dec 09, 2024 92   Minnesota W 82-67 74%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +18.6 +13.1 +5.8
  Dec 13, 2024 48   @ Nebraska L 68-85 39%     8 - 3 1 - 1 -3.9 +3.9 -8.0
  Dec 21, 2024 138   Chattanooga W 74-65 85%     9 - 3 +7.9 +0.8 +7.3
  Dec 29, 2024 205   Winthrop W 77-68 91%     10 - 3 +4.3 -1.8 +5.9
  Jan 02, 2025 63   Rutgers W 84-74 64%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +16.4 +8.6 +7.1
  Jan 05, 2025 50   @ Penn St. W 77-71 40%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +18.7 +9.9 +8.8
  Jan 08, 2025 54   USC W 82-69 60%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +20.5 +10.7 +9.6
  Jan 11, 2025 60   @ Iowa L 60-85 43%     13 - 4 4 - 2 -13.1 -12.3 -0.1
  Jan 14, 2025 13   Illinois L 69-94 33%     13 - 5 4 - 3 -10.3 -2.9 -5.1
  Jan 17, 2025 25   @ Ohio St. W 77-76 OT 25%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +18.1 +11.6 +6.5
  Jan 22, 2025 56   @ Northwestern L 70-79 41%     14 - 6 5 - 4 +3.3 +6.7 -3.8
  Jan 26, 2025 16   Maryland L 78-79 35%     14 - 7 5 - 5 +13.2 +20.6 -7.6
  Jan 31, 2025 9   @ Purdue L 76-81 17%     14 - 8 5 - 6 +15.4 +13.4 +1.9
  Feb 04, 2025 17   @ Wisconsin L 72-81 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 18   Michigan L 75-79 39%    
  Feb 11, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 70-79 18%    
  Feb 14, 2025 29   UCLA L 70-72 45%    
  Feb 23, 2025 9   Purdue L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 26, 2025 50   Penn St. W 79-77 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 89   @ Washington W 75-74 53%    
  Mar 04, 2025 45   @ Oregon L 73-77 34%    
  Mar 08, 2025 25   Ohio St. L 73-75 44%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 4th
5th 0.3 0.7 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 2.6 0.3 4.4 7th
8th 0.8 5.4 2.2 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.2 4.9 6.4 0.3 11.8 9th
10th 2.2 9.6 2.1 0.0 13.9 10th
11th 0.4 7.5 6.1 0.2 14.2 11th
12th 0.0 2.4 9.4 1.5 0.0 13.3 12th
13th 0.2 6.2 3.8 0.1 10.3 13th
14th 1.5 6.2 0.9 8.6 14th
15th 0.1 3.4 2.4 0.1 6.0 15th
16th 0.7 2.7 0.3 3.7 16th
17th 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.4 17th
18th 0.1 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 1.7 8.4 18.0 24.1 22.9 15.6 6.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 100.0% 5.6% 94.4% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 2.1% 94.7% 2.4% 92.3% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 94.6%
11-9 6.9% 86.3% 1.6% 84.7% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.5 0.9 86.1%
10-10 15.6% 69.2% 1.5% 67.6% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.7 4.1 2.8 0.0 4.8 68.7%
9-11 22.9% 30.8% 0.6% 30.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.3 0.3 15.8 30.3%
8-12 24.1% 6.1% 0.2% 5.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 22.6 5.9%
7-13 18.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 17.9 0.3%
6-14 8.4% 8.4
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.8% 0.7% 27.2% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 3.3 6.0 7.6 8.6 0.6 72.2 27.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%