Indiana
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.5 #25
Expected Predictive Rating +12.7 #41
Pace 69.5 #181
Improvement -0.7 #224

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #22 A C+ B+ A A-
Defense #30 A+ B C+ C- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #157 1.30 #54 +3.1 #88
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #355 0.98 #12 -3.6 #341
Three Pointers 52% #15 1.11 #69 +8.1 #8
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #17 +7.6 #19
Freethrows 20.6 #39 79% #18 16.3 #18
Second Chance 32.1% #140 1.09 #129 0.35 #119
Turnovers 14.1% #44
Total Offense +9.0 #22

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #292 0.99 #26 +5.3 #30
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #11 0.64 #44 -2.0 #320
Three Pointers 36% #308 0.87 #39 +5.1 #25
1st FG Attempt 0.84 #10 +8.3 #10
Freethrows 18.1 #225 73% #211 13.3 #138
Second Chance 24.8% #22 1.11 #259 0.27 #76
Turnovers 17.5% #125
Total Defense +6.5 #30

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.1% #23 -2.9% #19
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.8% #32 -14.3% #10
Possession Length 16.6 #117 17.8 #275
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #138 0.10 #14
Improvement +1.7 #75 -2.4 #320

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 9.8% 13.3% 4.3%
Top 6 Seed 31.8% 39.8% 19.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.8% 87.0% 68.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.4% 86.6% 68.1%
Average Seed 7.1 6.8 7.8
.500 or above 98.8% 99.7% 97.5%
.500 or above in Conference 80.5% 88.5% 67.9%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four6.2% 4.5% 8.9%
First Round77.2% 85.0% 65.0%
Second Round51.4% 58.5% 40.3%
Sweet Sixteen20.1% 23.9% 14.0%
Elite Eight7.6% 9.4% 4.9%
Final Four2.6% 3.3% 1.6%
Championship Game0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Next Game: Nebraska (Home) - 61.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 25 - 10
Quad 25 - 110 - 11
Quad 34 - 015 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 303 Alabama A&M W 98 - 51 98%  +31  1 - 0 +36 +20 A+ C C+ +16 A+ A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 9 110 Marquette W 100 - 77 85%  +12  2 - 0 +27 +24 A+ A- A+ +2 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 226 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 101 - 70 97%  +13  3 - 0 +24 +22 A+ A A+ +2 D B A+
 Sun, Nov 16 165 Incarnate Word W 69 - 61 95%  +10  4 - 0 +4 -1 D- C- C+ +6 B+ A C+
 Thu, Nov 20 240 Lindenwood W 73 - 53 97%  +14  5 - 0 +13 -2 F C A+ +15 A+ B B
 Tue, Nov 25 74 Kansas St. W 86 - 69 84%  +13  6 - 0 +22 +8 A+ C F +13 B A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 278 Bethune-Cookman W 100 - 56 98%  +26  7 - 0 +34 +20 A+ F A+ +14 A+ C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 76 @Minnesota L 64 - 73 68%  -1  7 - 1 0 - 1 +2 +1 C+ C A+ +0 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 15 Louisville L 78 - 87 42%  -12  7 - 2 +9 +7 B- A+ C- +2 C A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 9 105 Penn St. W 113 - 72 90%  +28  8 - 2 1 - 1 +42 +35 A+ A+ A+ +6 A- C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 27 @Kentucky L 60 - 72 41%  +0  8 - 3 +6 -1 D C- F +6 A+ D- F
 Sat, Dec 20 353 Chicago St. W 78 - 58 99%  +18  9 - 3 +4 -1 A F C- +6 C+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 190 Siena W 81 - 60 96%  +18  10 - 3 +16 +8 B F C- +9 A+ B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 47 Washington W 90 - 80 77%  +7  11 - 3 2 - 1 +18 +29 A+ A+ A+ -11 C+ D F
 Wed, Jan 7 107 @Maryland W 84 - 66 78%  +6  12 - 3 3 - 1 +25 +18 C A+ A- +8 A+ C- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 23 Nebraska W 76 - 73 61% 
 Tue, Jan 13 14 @Michigan St. L 68 - 74 30% 
 Sat, Jan 17 20 Iowa W 73 - 71 57% 
 Tue, Jan 20 1 @Michigan L 73 - 87 10% 
 Fri, Jan 23 131 @Rutgers W 79 - 68 84% 
 Tue, Jan 27 4 Purdue L 73 - 77 35% 
 Sat, Jan 31 38 @UCLA L 74 - 75 48% 
 Tue, Feb 3 46 @USC W 79 - 78 55% 
 Sat, Feb 7 43 Wisconsin W 81 - 74 73% 
 Mon, Feb 9 65 Oregon W 81 - 71 81% 
 Sun, Feb 15 9 @Illinois L 73 - 81 24% 
 Fri, Feb 20 4 @Purdue L 70 - 80 17% 
 Tue, Feb 24 60 Northwestern W 80 - 71 81% 
 Sun, Mar 1 14 Michigan St. W 72 - 71 51% 
 Wed, Mar 4 76 Minnesota W 75 - 64 84% 
 Sat, Mar 7 30 @Ohio St. L 76 - 78 44% 
Totals 20 - 11 11 - 9 +16 +9 A C+ B+ +7 A+ B C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.3 0.8 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.4 4.3 6.1 1.8 0.1 12.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 3.0 7.0 2.9 0.1 13.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 6.4 4.6 0.5 0.0 13.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.5 5.7 1.2 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.2 5.2 2.0 0.1 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.9 2.7 0.2 7.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.6 0.4 0.0 5.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.7 5.5 10.0 14.7 17.8 17.9 13.9 9.4 4.3 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 77.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 47.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 13.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.5% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.9% 100.0% 11.4% 88.6% 3.5 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.3% 100.0% 5.9% 94.1% 4.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.4% 99.9% 4.7% 95.2% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.1 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 13.9% 99.6% 2.9% 96.7% 6.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.1 4.3 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.6%
12-8 17.9% 97.6% 1.7% 95.9% 7.1 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.7 5.1 3.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 97.6%
11-9 17.8% 91.2% 1.1% 90.1% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.9 4.4 4.0 2.6 0.7 1.6 91.1%
10-10 14.7% 76.0% 0.6% 75.3% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 2.9 3.5 2.0 0.0 3.5 75.8%
9-11 10.0% 41.9% 0.3% 41.5% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 0.1 5.8 41.7%
8-12 5.5% 11.7% 0.1% 11.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 4.9 11.6%
7-13 2.7% 2.0% 2.0% 11.1 0.1 0.0 2.7 2.0%
6-14 1.0% 1.0
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 79.8% 2.0% 77.8% 7.1 20.2 79.4%