Iowa
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.7 #21
Expected Predictive Rating +16.6 #26
Pace 61.9 #343
Improvement -1.1 #240

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #31 A B- B- B- B-
Defense #19 B- B+ A+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #72 1.34 #21 +6.4 #16
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #248 0.99 #8 +0.8 #133
Three Pointers 40% #202 1.18 #16 +2.9 #81
1st FG Attempt 1.22 #3 +10.1 #3
Freethrows 0.32 #113 77% #46 0.25 #79
Second Chance 34.6% #74 1.06 #130 0.37 #76
Turnovers 15.4% #103
Total Offense +8.6 #31

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #184 1.19 #225 -0.7 #202
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #136 0.69 #69 +0.3 #160
Three Pointers 40% #228 0.89 #33 +3.3 #57
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #83 +2.9 #85
Freethrows 0.31 #203 71% #115 0.22 #188
Second Chance 26.5% #51 0.93 #52 0.25 #33
Turnovers 22.5% #6
Total Defense +8.2 #19

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #82 -0.2% #140
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 18.0% #3 -5.5% #76
Possession Length 18.7 #320 18.0 #296
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #200 0.10 #18
Improvement -0.8 #228 -0.3 #204

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.3% 2.1% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 13.6% 19.4% 6.2%
Top 6 Seed 46.3% 58.2% 31.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.4% 98.2% 91.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.3% 98.1% 91.8%
Average Seed 6.7 6.1 7.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 98.1% 88.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.6% 1.3% 6.4%
First Round94.2% 97.7% 89.7%
Second Round67.2% 73.4% 59.4%
Sweet Sixteen27.5% 32.3% 21.4%
Elite Eight10.7% 12.5% 8.4%
Final Four4.2% 5.1% 3.1%
Championship Game1.5% 1.8% 1.1%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.4%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 56.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 15 - 9
Quad 27 - 112 - 10
Quad 33 - 015 - 10
Quad 48 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 220 Robert Morris W 101 - 69 97% +21  1 - 0 +26 +26 A+ A+ C +1 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 362 Western Illinois W 77 - 58 100% +10  2 - 0 -0 +5 A+ F A- -3 C- C+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 83 Xavier W 81 - 62 88% +10  3 - 0 +23 +10 A+ D D +13 A+ B- A
 Tue, Nov 18 238 Southeast Missouri St. W 99 - 70 98% +19  4 - 0 +22 +27 A+ A+ B -4 D+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 355 Chicago St. W 93 - 54 100% +18  5 - 0 +22 +25 B- A+ A+ +2 B B- C+
 Tue, Nov 25 59 Mississippi W 74 - 69 76% +2  6 - 0 +14 +13 C A+ A+ +2 B- F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 65 Grand Canyon W 59 - 46 78% +6  7 - 0 +22 +3 B- B- D +21 C A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 10 @Michigan St. L 52 - 71 27% -12  7 - 1 0 - 1 +4 +4 B C C -3 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 107 Maryland W 83 - 64 92% +15  8 - 1 1 - 1 +20 +10 A- C+ B+ +9 B+ C+ A+
 Thu, Dec 11 4 @Iowa St. L 62 - 66 21% +1  8 - 2 +21 +10 A+ B+ D- +10 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 273 Western Michigan W 91 - 51 98% +30  9 - 2 +31 +20 A+ C- A- +15 A+ D+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 315 Bucknell W 94 - 39 98% +23  10 - 2 +46 +24 A+ A+ A- +25 C A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 314 Umass Lowell W 90 - 62 99% +19  11 - 2 +16 +18 A C B +0 D B+ A-
 Sat, Jan 3 35 UCLA W 74 - 61 71% +10  12 - 2 2 - 1 +24 +16 A+ D- D +10 B A+ A
 Tue, Jan 6 76 @Minnesota L 67 - 70 72% -6  12 - 3 2 - 2 +8 +2 C+ C- D +6 C A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 11 7 Illinois L 69 - 75 44% -10  12 - 4 2 - 3 +12 +6 B C C+ +6 C+ A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 8 @Purdue L 72 - 79 24% +1  12 - 5 2 - 4 +17 +14 A+ A- D +2 C A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 30 @Indiana W 74 - 57 46% +9  13 - 5 3 - 4 +35 +24 A+ D+ B+ +14 B+ A+ B
 Tue, Jan 20 114 Rutgers W 68 - 62 93% +1  14 - 5 4 - 4 +6 +1 B- F C- +6 D A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 48 USC W 73 - 72 79% +1  15 - 5 5 - 4 +9 +7 C- A+ F +2 D+ B A+
 Sun, Feb 1 82 @Oregon W 84 - 66 75% +7  16 - 5 6 - 4 +28 +31 A+ F+ A+ +0 A+ F+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 41 @Washington W 72 - 70 56%
 Sun, Feb 8 63 Northwestern W 75 - 64 85%
 Wed, Feb 11 107 @Maryland W 76 - 66 82%
 Sat, Feb 14 8 Purdue L 71 - 72 46%
 Tue, Feb 17 13 Nebraska W 70 - 69 55%
 Sun, Feb 22 37 @Wisconsin W 75 - 74 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 36 Ohio St. W 76 - 70 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 112 @Penn St. W 78 - 68 84%
 Thu, Mar 5 1 Michigan L 72 - 77 30%
 Sun, Mar 8 13 @Nebraska L 67 - 72 33%
Totals 22 - 9 12 - 8 +17 +9 A B- B- +8 B- B+ A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 0.5 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.2 3.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.5 1.2 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 7.7 5.2 0.2 14.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 10.3 10.2 1.3 23.2 6th
7th 0.3 6.0 9.6 1.5 0.0 17.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.8 8.6 2.6 0.1 13.1 8th
9th 0.5 4.9 4.1 0.3 9.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 3.6 0.5 5.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.0 0.0 3.7 11th
12th 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.8 11.6 20.6 24.1 20.6 12.0 4.1 0.8 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 9.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.8% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 2.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.1% 99.8% 8.0% 91.8% 3.6 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 12.0% 100.0% 5.5% 94.5% 4.7 0.1 0.2 1.7 3.2 4.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 100.0%
13-7 20.6% 99.9% 4.0% 95.9% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 5.7 6.6 3.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 99.9%
12-8 24.1% 99.2% 2.4% 96.8% 6.7 0.1 0.7 3.3 6.6 6.9 4.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.1%
11-9 20.6% 97.0% 1.4% 95.5% 7.9 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.1 5.6 4.4 2.3 0.4 0.6 96.9%
10-10 11.6% 89.3% 0.8% 88.5% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.8 2.6 1.5 1.2 89.2%
9-11 4.8% 70.2% 0.9% 69.3% 10.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 1.4 69.9%
8-12 1.3% 34.8% 34.8% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.8 34.8%
7-13 0.2% 8.5% 8.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.5%
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 95.4% 2.9% 92.5% 6.7 4.6 95.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 60.0 20.0 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.5 8.7 47.8 26.1 17.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 2.9 43.1 34.5 15.5 6.9