Iowa
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#43
Expected Predictive Rating+11.5#50
Pace77.7#19
Improvement+1.8#84

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#13
First Shot+9.6#9
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#234
Layup/Dunks+6.7#14
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#114
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#61
Freethrows-2.1#301
Improvement+3.1#17

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#106
First Shot+1.6#120
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#97
Layups/Dunks-4.6#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#63
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#154
Freethrows+3.6#11
Improvement-1.3#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.4% 3.4% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 11.0% 11.0% 2.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.5% 52.6% 32.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 51.2% 51.3% 31.7%
Average Seed 8.1 8.1 8.9
.500 or above 89.3% 89.4% 70.3%
.500 or above in Conference 54.8% 54.9% 39.0%
Conference Champion 2.6% 2.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.7% 5.6%
First Four6.9% 6.9% 7.1%
First Round49.0% 49.1% 27.9%
Second Round26.6% 26.6% 16.4%
Sweet Sixteen8.5% 8.5% 3.7%
Elite Eight3.3% 3.3% 0.7%
Final Four1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 11
Quad 26 - 210 - 13
Quad 32 - 012 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 356   Texas A&M - Commerce W 91-64 99%    
  Nov 07, 2024 240   Southern W 89-74 95%     1 - 0 +7.6 +11.5 -4.5
  Nov 12, 2024 236   South Dakota W 96-77 95%     2 - 0 +11.8 +10.0 +1.0
  Nov 15, 2024 74   Washington St. W 76-66 64%     3 - 0 +17.6 +0.8 +15.9
  Nov 19, 2024 303   Rider W 83-58 97%     4 - 0 +14.2 +2.1 +11.4
  Nov 22, 2024 47   Utah St. L 69-77 52%     4 - 1 +2.8 -5.1 +8.6
  Nov 26, 2024 342   South Carolina Upstate W 110-77 98%     5 - 1 +18.5 +17.5 -3.0
  Dec 03, 2024 55   Northwestern W 80-79 67%     6 - 1 1 - 0 +7.8 +13.0 -5.1
  Dec 07, 2024 19   @ Michigan L 83-85 27%     6 - 2 1 - 1 +15.9 +14.1 +1.9
  Dec 12, 2024 6   Iowa St. L 80-89 31%     6 - 3 +7.6 +12.6 -4.9
  Dec 15, 2024 343   New Orleans W 104-57 98%     7 - 3 +32.4 +25.8 +7.4
  Dec 21, 2024 65   Utah W 95-88 62%     8 - 3 +15.1 +15.8 -1.4
  Dec 30, 2024 355   New Hampshire W 93-66 99%    
  Jan 03, 2025 34   @ Wisconsin L 80-84 35%    
  Jan 07, 2025 40   Nebraska W 82-79 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 51   Indiana W 85-81 64%    
  Jan 14, 2025 71   @ USC W 81-80 52%    
  Jan 17, 2025 20   @ UCLA L 71-78 27%    
  Jan 21, 2025 111   Minnesota W 78-67 85%    
  Jan 24, 2025 32   Penn St. W 85-83 56%    
  Jan 27, 2025 29   @ Ohio St. L 78-83 33%    
  Feb 04, 2025 27   Purdue W 81-80 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 34   Wisconsin W 83-81 58%    
  Feb 12, 2025 63   @ Rutgers L 82-83 50%    
  Feb 16, 2025 13   @ Maryland L 78-86 24%    
  Feb 19, 2025 23   Oregon L 80-81 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 95   Washington W 85-76 80%    
  Feb 25, 2025 21   @ Illinois L 81-87 28%    
  Feb 28, 2025 55   @ Northwestern L 74-75 45%    
  Mar 06, 2025 14   Michigan St. L 79-80 46%    
  Mar 09, 2025 40   @ Nebraska L 79-82 38%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 2.8 0.7 0.1 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.4 1.6 0.1 5.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.2 3.3 3.6 0.3 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 5.0 1.5 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.5 3.7 0.3 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.8 1.3 0.0 7.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.2 0.2 7.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.7 0.9 0.0 7.0 13th
14th 0.1 1.2 3.3 1.7 0.1 6.4 14th
15th 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.1 0.3 5.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.0 5.8 8.8 11.8 13.9 14.8 13.4 10.7 7.5 4.5 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 96.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 88.3% 0.3    0.3 0.1
16-4 67.5% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 37.7% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 10.6% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.4% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.1% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 3.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.4% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 4.5% 99.8% 10.8% 89.0% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 7.5% 98.4% 7.1% 91.3% 7.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.1 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.3%
12-8 10.7% 94.2% 3.7% 90.5% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.1 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.6 94.0%
11-9 13.4% 85.1% 2.4% 82.7% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.7 3.5 2.8 1.0 0.0 2.0 84.7%
10-10 14.8% 66.7% 1.4% 65.3% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.4 3.6 2.2 0.0 4.9 66.2%
9-11 13.9% 31.2% 0.7% 30.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 0.2 9.6 30.7%
8-12 11.8% 8.0% 0.4% 7.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 10.8 7.6%
7-13 8.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 0.5%
6-14 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 5.8 0.0%
5-15 3.0% 3.0
4-16 1.3% 1.3
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 52.5% 2.7% 49.8% 8.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 3.1 4.5 6.9 9.4 9.6 8.9 6.4 0.3 47.5 51.2%