Iowa
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.3 #20
Expected Predictive Rating +14.3 #36
Pace 62.3 #343
Improvement -0.5 #210

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #24 A+ B B B- B
Defense #20 B- B- A+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #57 1.30 #56 +6.0 #23
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #252 1.06 #3 +1.4 #104
Three Pointers 40% #212 1.15 #24 +2.0 #118
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #13 +9.4 #12
Freethrows 18.4 #131 75% #127 13.7 #115
Second Chance 35.3% #57 1.09 #126 0.39 #66
Turnovers 14.8% #72
Total Offense +8.4 #24

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #198 1.16 #179 +0.2 #173
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #182 0.69 #103 +0.7 #147
Three Pointers 42% #165 0.90 #55 +2.0 #110
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #93 +2.9 #93
Freethrows 19.3 #287 70% #93 13.6 #113
Second Chance 27.3% #73 1.03 #178 0.28 #87
Turnovers 22.1% #7
Total Defense +8.0 #20

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #77 0.0% #170
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 16.4% #9 -5.6% #81
Possession Length 18.8 #329 17.7 #260
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #239 0.11 #25
Improvement -1.9 #293 +1.4 #88

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.9% 3.2% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 16.7% 24.3% 10.1%
Top 6 Seed 44.8% 57.6% 33.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.4% 94.6% 83.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.1% 94.4% 82.6%
Average Seed 6.6 6.0 7.2
.500 or above 99.7% 100.0% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 80.6% 90.0% 72.4%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.1% 3.0% 6.8%
First Round86.3% 93.3% 80.3%
Second Round62.3% 71.0% 54.7%
Sweet Sixteen26.7% 33.0% 21.3%
Elite Eight10.6% 13.1% 8.3%
Final Four3.9% 4.8% 3.2%
Championship Game1.5% 1.9% 1.1%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.5%

Next Game: Illinois (Home) - 46.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 9
Quad 26 - 112 - 10
Quad 34 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 206 Robert Morris W 101 - 69 97%  +21  1 - 0 +26 +26 A+ A+ C +1 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 358 Western Illinois W 77 - 58 100%  +10  2 - 0 +1 +5 A+ F A -2 C- B- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 97 Xavier W 81 - 62 90%  +10  3 - 0 +21 +10 A+ D- D+ +12 A+ B- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 218 Southeast Missouri St. W 99 - 70 97%  +19  4 - 0 +23 +26 A+ A+ B -3 D F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 353 Chicago St. W 93 - 54 99%  +18  5 - 0 +23 +26 B A+ A+ +3 B B+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 71 Mississippi W 74 - 69 78%  +2  6 - 0 +13 +12 D+ A+ A+ +2 B- F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 83 Grand Canyon W 59 - 46 81%  +6  7 - 0 +20 +2 C B D +21 C A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 14 @Michigan St. L 52 - 71 32%  -12  7 - 1 0 - 1 +2 +3 B+ C C- -5 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 107 Maryland W 83 - 64 91%  +15  8 - 1 1 - 1 +20 +12 A C+ A+ +9 A D A+
 Thu, Dec 11 3 @Iowa St. L 62 - 66 18%  +1  8 - 2 +22 +12 A+ B+ D +10 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 265 Western Michigan W 91 - 51 98%  +30  9 - 2 +31 +21 A+ D+ A+ +14 A+ D B
 Sat, Dec 20 314 Bucknell W 94 - 39 98%  +23  10 - 2 +46 +26 A+ A+ B+ +23 D+ A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 286 Umass Lowell W 90 - 62 98%  +19  11 - 2 +18 +17 A+ D A +3 D+ A A+
 Sat, Jan 3 38 UCLA W 74 - 61 73%  +10  12 - 2 2 - 1 +23 +14 A+ F D +10 B+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 76 @Minnesota L 67 - 70 71%  -6  12 - 3 2 - 2 +8 +2 B- C D- +6 C- A+ D
 Sun, Jan 11 9 Illinois L 71 - 72 47% 
 Wed, Jan 14 4 @Purdue L 66 - 75 19% 
 Sat, Jan 17 25 @Indiana L 71 - 73 43% 
 Tue, Jan 20 131 Rutgers W 77 - 59 95% 
 Wed, Jan 28 46 USC W 77 - 69 77% 
 Sun, Feb 1 65 @Oregon W 73 - 69 67% 
 Wed, Feb 4 47 @Washington W 72 - 70 59% 
 Sun, Feb 8 60 Northwestern W 76 - 66 83% 
 Wed, Feb 11 107 @Maryland W 74 - 65 79% 
 Sat, Feb 14 4 Purdue L 69 - 72 38% 
 Tue, Feb 17 23 Nebraska W 71 - 67 64% 
 Sun, Feb 22 43 @Wisconsin W 73 - 71 56% 
 Wed, Feb 25 30 Ohio St. W 74 - 69 68% 
 Sat, Feb 28 105 @Penn St. W 76 - 67 79% 
 Thu, Mar 5 1 Michigan L 71 - 78 26% 
 Sun, Mar 8 23 @Nebraska L 68 - 70 42% 
Totals 21 - 10 11 - 9 +16 +8 A+ B B +8 B- B- A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 2.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.8 4.5 1.0 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.4 3.7 6.2 2.0 0.1 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.7 7.3 3.4 0.3 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 6.7 4.5 0.5 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.7 4.7 5.6 1.0 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 5.1 1.5 0.1 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.9 2.5 0.2 7.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.4 0.4 5.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.6 5.6 10.1 14.3 17.1 17.1 14.6 9.9 5.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 78.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
17-3 47.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 15.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.5% 100.0% 22.8% 77.2% 2.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.0% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 2.9 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.1% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 3.7 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.9% 100.0% 5.6% 94.4% 4.4 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.3 3.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.6% 99.8% 3.8% 96.0% 5.3 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.7 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.8%
12-8 17.1% 99.6% 1.8% 97.8% 6.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.2 5.2 4.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 99.6%
11-9 17.1% 97.4% 1.7% 95.7% 7.4 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.0 4.5 4.2 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.4 97.4%
10-10 14.3% 91.6% 1.2% 90.4% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.2 3.6 2.7 0.8 1.2 91.5%
9-11 10.1% 72.2% 1.0% 71.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.5 2.1 0.0 2.8 71.9%
8-12 5.6% 36.4% 0.4% 36.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 0.1 3.5 36.2%
7-13 2.6% 9.8% 9.8% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.4 9.8%
6-14 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 11.0 0.0 0.9 1.7%
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 88.4% 2.8% 85.6% 6.6 11.6 88.1%