Michigan
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.9#19
Expected Predictive Rating+12.5#45
Pace71.0#119
Improvement+0.2#170

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#25
First Shot+6.1#39
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#90
Layup/Dunks+8.9#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#344
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#155
Freethrows-0.2#193
Improvement+0.3#148

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#20
First Shot+6.9#18
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#160
Layups/Dunks+5.6#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#280
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#178
Freethrows+2.1#52
Improvement-0.2#196
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.0% 3.2% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 9.3% 10.0% 3.3%
Top 4 Seed 30.5% 32.0% 16.4%
Top 6 Seed 55.2% 57.2% 36.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.9% 90.9% 80.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.6% 89.8% 78.6%
Average Seed 5.7 5.6 6.7
.500 or above 97.6% 98.2% 92.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.2% 90.8% 84.6%
Conference Champion 20.5% 21.3% 13.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four3.1% 2.8% 5.3%
First Round88.5% 89.7% 77.7%
Second Round64.8% 66.3% 51.0%
Sweet Sixteen32.0% 33.1% 21.9%
Elite Eight14.1% 14.7% 9.0%
Final Four5.7% 6.0% 3.6%
Championship Game2.4% 2.5% 1.2%
National Champion1.0% 1.0% 0.4%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 90.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 38 - 8
Quad 26 - 214 - 11
Quad 34 - 018 - 11
Quad 43 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 218   Cleveland St. W 101-53 96%     1 - 0 +42.0 +20.1 +18.8
  Nov 10, 2024 89   Wake Forest L 70-72 79%     1 - 1 +4.3 +4.1 +0.1
  Nov 15, 2024 66   TCU W 76-64 82%     2 - 1 +17.0 +6.5 +10.1
  Nov 18, 2024 200   Miami (OH) W 94-67 96%     3 - 1 +22.2 +15.6 +5.4
  Nov 21, 2024 285   Tarleton St. W 72-49 98%     4 - 1 +13.3 +3.4 +11.7
  Nov 25, 2024 138   Virginia Tech W 75-63 89%     5 - 1 +13.3 +3.3 +10.0
  Nov 27, 2024 49   Xavier W 78-53 66%     6 - 1 +35.5 +9.0 +26.2
  Dec 03, 2024 34   @ Wisconsin W 67-64 48%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +18.3 +2.0 +16.5
  Dec 07, 2024 43   Iowa W 85-83 73%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +10.4 +8.3 +1.9
  Dec 10, 2024 31   Arkansas L 87-89 58%     8 - 2 +10.9 +12.4 -1.4
  Dec 18, 2024 35   Oklahoma L 86-87 60%     8 - 3 +11.3 +17.9 -6.5
  Dec 22, 2024 160   Purdue Fort Wayne W 89-58 94%     9 - 3 +27.9 +11.4 +16.4
  Dec 29, 2024 108   Western Kentucky W 85-71 90%    
  Jan 04, 2025 71   @ USC W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 07, 2025 20   @ UCLA L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 12, 2025 95   Washington W 81-68 88%    
  Jan 16, 2025 111   @ Minnesota W 72-63 79%    
  Jan 19, 2025 55   Northwestern W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 24, 2025 27   @ Purdue L 74-76 43%    
  Jan 27, 2025 32   Penn St. W 80-75 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 63   @ Rutgers W 78-75 63%    
  Feb 05, 2025 23   Oregon W 76-73 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 51   @ Indiana W 77-76 55%    
  Feb 11, 2025 27   Purdue W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 16, 2025 29   @ Ohio St. L 73-74 45%    
  Feb 21, 2025 14   Michigan St. W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 24, 2025 40   @ Nebraska W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 27, 2025 63   Rutgers W 81-72 81%    
  Mar 02, 2025 21   Illinois W 79-76 61%    
  Mar 05, 2025 13   Maryland W 76-74 57%    
  Mar 09, 2025 14   @ Michigan St. L 71-75 36%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.9 6.1 4.5 2.3 0.8 0.1 20.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.3 5.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.0 5.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 5.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.7 2.9 0.3 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 4.1 0.7 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.7 1.8 0.1 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.7 1.1 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.0 0.1 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.6 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.7 5.0 7.9 11.0 14.2 14.6 14.3 12.0 8.2 4.9 2.3 0.8 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 99.2% 2.3    2.2 0.1
17-3 92.3% 4.5    3.7 0.8 0.0
16-4 74.4% 6.1    3.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 40.9% 4.9    1.5 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-6 11.9% 1.7    0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.5% 20.5 12.1 5.6 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.8% 100.0% 32.3% 67.7% 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.3% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 1.9 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.9% 100.0% 26.0% 74.0% 2.4 0.9 1.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 8.2% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 3.1 0.6 1.8 2.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.0% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 4.0 0.2 1.0 3.0 3.6 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.3% 99.9% 14.4% 85.5% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.1 4.3 3.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 14.6% 99.5% 9.2% 90.3% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.9 4.0 3.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5%
12-8 14.2% 98.0% 5.5% 92.5% 7.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 4.1 3.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 97.8%
11-9 11.0% 93.0% 4.1% 88.8% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 2.9 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.8 92.7%
10-10 7.9% 77.9% 2.3% 75.6% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.0 1.7 77.4%
9-11 5.0% 44.5% 1.1% 43.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.1 2.8 43.9%
8-12 2.7% 12.5% 0.7% 11.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 11.9%
7-13 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.4%
6-14 0.6% 0.6
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 89.9% 11.1% 78.8% 5.7 3.0 6.3 9.9 11.2 12.5 12.3 12.3 9.4 6.0 4.1 2.8 0.2 0.0 10.1 88.6%