Michigan
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.1#18
Expected Predictive Rating+15.7#21
Pace72.7#72
Improvement-3.2#318

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#17
First Shot+7.1#27
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#92
Layup/Dunks+8.1#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#353
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#97
Freethrows+0.2#163
Improvement-1.3#264

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#27
First Shot+7.2#18
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#165
Layups/Dunks+5.4#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#144
Freethrows+2.4#41
Improvement-1.9#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.8% 4.6% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 14.9% 17.2% 7.2%
Top 4 Seed 51.8% 56.9% 35.5%
Top 6 Seed 82.9% 86.7% 70.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.3% 99.6% 98.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.2% 99.5% 98.2%
Average Seed 4.6 4.3 5.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 98.4%
Conference Champion 26.4% 30.8% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.8%
First Round99.2% 99.5% 98.0%
Second Round81.5% 83.4% 75.2%
Sweet Sixteen43.9% 46.3% 36.1%
Elite Eight19.1% 20.7% 14.0%
Final Four7.9% 8.7% 5.4%
Championship Game3.5% 3.9% 2.1%
National Champion1.2% 1.4% 0.6%

Next Game: Oregon (Home) - 76.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 39 - 7
Quad 26 - 315 - 10
Quad 36 - 021 - 10
Quad 42 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 157   Cleveland St. W 101-53 94%     1 - 0 +46.0 +22.3 +20.6
  Nov 10, 2024 58   Wake Forest L 70-72 73%     1 - 1 +7.7 +6.3 +1.3
  Nov 15, 2024 68   TCU W 76-64 84%     2 - 1 +17.4 +5.7 +11.2
  Nov 18, 2024 173   Miami (OH) W 94-67 95%     3 - 1 +24.1 +15.1 +7.9
  Nov 21, 2024 247   Tarleton St. W 72-49 98%     4 - 1 +15.4 +5.6 +11.6
  Nov 25, 2024 118   Virginia Tech W 75-63 89%     5 - 1 +14.6 +2.3 +12.3
  Nov 27, 2024 44   Xavier W 78-53 67%     6 - 1 +36.6 +10.1 +26.1
  Dec 03, 2024 17   @ Wisconsin W 67-64 39%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +22.0 +3.6 +18.6
  Dec 07, 2024 60   Iowa W 85-83 81%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +8.9 +6.8 +1.9
  Dec 10, 2024 43   Arkansas L 87-89 67%     8 - 2 +9.6 +12.7 -2.9
  Dec 18, 2024 34   Oklahoma L 86-87 61%     8 - 3 +12.2 +18.2 -6.0
  Dec 22, 2024 149   Purdue Fort Wayne W 89-58 94%     9 - 3 +29.4 +12.4 +17.0
  Dec 29, 2024 115   Western Kentucky W 112-64 92%     10 - 3 +48.4 +23.5 +17.0
  Jan 04, 2025 54   @ USC W 85-74 64%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +23.4 +15.5 +7.6
  Jan 07, 2025 29   @ UCLA W 94-75 47%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +35.8 +27.8 +7.4
  Jan 12, 2025 89   Washington W 91-75 87%     13 - 3 5 - 0 +19.8 +17.8 +1.3
  Jan 16, 2025 92   @ Minnesota L 81-84 OT 77%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +5.5 +12.9 -7.4
  Jan 19, 2025 56   Northwestern W 80-76 OT 80%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +11.4 +4.7 +6.3
  Jan 24, 2025 9   @ Purdue L 64-91 34%     14 - 5 6 - 2 -6.6 -1.7 -4.3
  Jan 27, 2025 50   Penn St. W 76-72 79%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +11.7 +7.3 +4.5
  Feb 01, 2025 63   @ Rutgers W 66-63 68%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +14.4 -0.5 +14.9
  Feb 05, 2025 45   Oregon W 80-73 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 53   @ Indiana W 79-75 61%    
  Feb 11, 2025 9   Purdue W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 16, 2025 25   @ Ohio St. L 74-75 45%    
  Feb 21, 2025 15   Michigan St. W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 24, 2025 48   @ Nebraska W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 27, 2025 63   Rutgers W 82-72 82%    
  Mar 02, 2025 13   Illinois W 82-81 57%    
  Mar 05, 2025 16   Maryland W 78-76 59%    
  Mar 09, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 74-77 37%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.8 8.4 10.6 4.6 0.9 26.4 1st
2nd 1.0 8.7 9.5 1.6 0.1 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 5.7 9.3 1.6 0.0 16.9 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 8.2 2.3 12.4 4th
5th 0.5 5.0 4.1 0.1 9.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.1 0.6 6.5 6th
7th 0.4 2.4 1.4 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.1 1.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.9 5.7 12.8 19.6 22.2 19.5 12.3 4.7 0.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-3 98.1% 4.6    4.2 0.4
16-4 86.5% 10.6    6.3 4.0 0.4
15-5 43.2% 8.4    1.9 3.9 2.1 0.5 0.0
14-6 8.2% 1.8    0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.4% 26.4 13.4 8.6 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 1.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 100.0%
17-3 4.7% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 1.9 1.5 2.4 0.7 0.1 100.0%
16-4 12.3% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 2.6 1.3 4.4 4.3 2.0 0.2 100.0%
15-5 19.5% 100.0% 13.7% 86.3% 3.5 0.5 2.8 7.0 6.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 100.0%
14-6 22.2% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 4.4 0.1 0.9 4.2 6.8 6.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-7 19.6% 99.8% 10.6% 89.2% 5.4 0.1 1.1 3.3 5.8 5.7 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 99.8%
12-8 12.8% 99.4% 6.8% 92.6% 6.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 3.9 3.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-9 5.7% 97.2% 3.0% 94.2% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.2 97.1%
10-10 1.9% 88.4% 2.1% 86.2% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 88.1%
9-11 0.4% 50.0% 2.4% 47.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 48.8%
8-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.3% 12.2% 87.1% 4.6 3.8 11.1 17.6 19.4 17.2 13.9 8.8 4.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.7 99.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 65.2 34.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 36.4 54.5 9.1