IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Michigan
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+25.0	#1
Expected Predictive Rating	+28.3	#4

Pace	79.0	#10
Improvement	-4.5	#338

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#6	A	A+	B-	A-	A
Defense	#1	A+	B+	B-	A-	A+

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	48%	#8	1.38	#11	+11.0	#1
2 Pt. Jumpers	8%	#357	0.83	#74	-4.3	#353
Three Pointers	43%	#138	1.05	#120	+2.0	#112
1st FG Attempt			1.19	#11	+8.6	#11
Freethrows	0.38	#9	73%	#149	0.28	#16
Second Chance	38.1%	#17	1.40	#1	0.53	#1
Turnovers					14.9%	#74
Total Offense					+11.7	#6

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	26%	#362	0.82	#1	+11.8	#1
2 Pt. Jumpers	30%	#8	0.63	#13	-1.9	#317
Three Pointers	44%	#87	0.83	#10	+2.5	#87
1st FG Attempt			0.77	#1	+12.5	#1
Freethrows	0.21	#9	70%	#67	0.15	#10
Second Chance	24.8%	#18	0.97	#100	0.24	#30
Turnovers					18.7%	#67
Total Defense					+13.3	#1

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	4.5%	#4	-4.3%	#3
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	11.9%	#28	-21.1%	#1
Possession Length	13.3	#1	18.8	#350
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.27	#12	0.06	#2
Improvement	-1.6	#284	-2.9	#323

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	29.3%	29.5%	16.7%
#1 Seed	79.1%	79.2%	67.8%
Top 2 Seed	98.8%	98.8%	95.3%
Top 4 Seed	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Top 6 Seed	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Average Seed	1.2	1.2	1.4

.500 or above	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
.500 or above in Conference	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Conference Champion	61.4%	61.7%	34.8%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Second Round	99.8%	99.8%	99.6%
Sweet Sixteen	84.2%	84.2%	84.1%
Elite Eight	63.2%	63.3%	54.1%
Final Four	43.4%	43.5%	30.5%
Championship Game	28.2%	28.3%	19.7%
National Champion	18.0%	18.1%	10.3%

Next Game: Penn St. (Home) - 98.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

1 seed

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	7 - 3	7 - 3
Quad 1b	7 - 0	14 - 3
Quad 2	8 - 1	22 - 4
Quad 3	5 - 0	27 - 4
Quad 4	2 - 0	29 - 4

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	129 Oakland	W	121 - 78	98%	+27	1 - 0		+42	+32	A+	A+	A	+5	C	A+	C+
Tue, Nov 11	75 Wake Forest	W	85 - 84 OT	94%	+2	2 - 0		+9	-0	D	A	B	+9	A+	D	C-
Fri, Nov 14	51 @TCU	W	67 - 63	86%	-2	3 - 0		+17	+3	C-	A+	F	+15	A+	A+	C+
Wed, Nov 19	154 Middle Tennessee	W	86 - 61	99%	+13	4 - 0		+22	+4	C-	A+	D+	+15	A+	C+	B+
Mon, Nov 24	43 San Diego St.	W	94 - 54	89%	+18	5 - 0		+52	+23	A	A+	A	+26	A+	A+	A+
Tue, Nov 25	28 Auburn	W	102 - 72	82%	+21	6 - 0		+46	+33	A-	A+	A+	+12	A+	A+	D
Wed, Nov 26	11 Gonzaga	W	101 - 61	70%	+25	7 - 0		+60	+25	A+	C+	B+	+30	A+	A+	C
Sat, Dec 6	114 Rutgers	W	101 - 60	98%	+22	8 - 0	1 - 0	+41	+24	A+	A+	B+	+15	A+	C-	A+
Tue, Dec 9	32 Villanova	W	89 - 61	90%	+23	9 - 0		+39	+12	C+	A+	A+	+24	A+	A+	A-
Sat, Dec 13	107 @Maryland	W	101 - 83	95%	+3	10 - 0	2 - 0	+25	+32	A+	C	A	-7	D-	F	C
Sun, Dec 21	214 La Salle	W	102 - 50	99%	+24	11 - 0		+46	+21	A+	D-	A-	+22	A+	B-	A+
Mon, Dec 29	85 McNeese St.	W	112 - 71	97%	+30	12 - 0		+45	+22	A+	A+	A+	+16	A+	A+	D+
Fri, Jan 2	48 USC	W	96 - 66	93%	+16	13 - 0	3 - 0	+38	+13	A-	B+	A	+21	A+	A+	A+
Tue, Jan 6	112 @Penn St.	W	74 - 72	95%	+5	14 - 0	4 - 0	+8	-0	D+	D	B	+8	A+	F	C
Sat, Jan 10	37 Wisconsin	L	88 - 91	91%	+2	14 - 1	4 - 1	+8	+16	A-	B-	B+	-8	D+	F	B-
Wed, Jan 14	41 @Washington	W	82 - 72	82%	+8	15 - 1	5 - 1	+25	+15	C-	A+	A+	+10	A+	F	B
Sat, Jan 17	82 @Oregon	W	81 - 71	92%	+6	16 - 1	6 - 1	+20	+16	A+	A+	F+	+5	A+	F+	C
Tue, Jan 20	30 Indiana	W	86 - 72	89%	+14	17 - 1	7 - 1	+26	+17	A+	A+	C-	+9	A	A+	C
Fri, Jan 23	36 Ohio St.	W	74 - 62	91%	+2	18 - 1	8 - 1	+23	+9	B-	A+	F	+14	A+	C	A-
Tue, Jan 27	13 Nebraska	W	75 - 72	82%	-4	19 - 1	9 - 1	+18	+9	B+	A+	F	+10	C+	A+	B
Fri, Jan 30	10 @Michigan St.	W	83 - 71	57%	+7	20 - 1	10 - 1	+35	+21	B	A+	C	+13	A+	A+	B
Thu, Feb 5	112 Penn St.	W	94 - 69	99%
Sun, Feb 8	36 @Ohio St.	W	85 - 77	78%
Wed, Feb 11	63 @Northwestern	W	84 - 71	89%
Sat, Feb 14	35 UCLA	W	83 - 69	91%
Tue, Feb 17	8 @Purdue	W	79 - 78	53%
Sat, Feb 21	3 Duke	W	78 - 77	55%
Tue, Feb 24	76 Minnesota	W	82 - 62	97%
Fri, Feb 27	7 @Illinois	W	81 - 80	53%
Thu, Mar 5	21 @Iowa	W	77 - 72	70%
Sun, Mar 8	10 Michigan St.	W	78 - 70	78%
Totals						28 - 3	17 - 3	+25	+12	A	A+	B-	+13	A+	B+	B-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Ten Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st																0.1	3.4	19.2	27.3	11.4		61.4	1st
2nd															0.1	1.7	11.2	10.5	1.2			24.7	2nd
3rd														0.0	0.3	3.6	4.6	0.6				9.1	3rd
4th														0.0	1.0	2.2	0.4					3.6	4th
5th													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.2						1.0	5th
6th														0.1	0.1							0.2	6th
7th													0.0	0.0								0.0	7th
8th												0.0	0.0									0.0	8th
9th																							9th
10th																							10th
11th																							11th
12th																							12th
13th																							13th
14th																							14th
15th																							15th
16th																							16th
17th																							17th
18th																							18th

Total												0.0	0.0	0.3	2.0	7.8	19.7	30.2	28.5	11.4			Total

Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	11.4	11.4
18-2	95.6%	27.3	20.7	6.3	0.3
17-3	63.4%	19.2	6.9	9.3	2.9	0.1
16-4	17.5%	3.4	0.4	1.3	1.4	0.4	0.0
15-5	1.8%	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
14-6	0.0%
13-7	0.0%
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10

Total	61.4%	61.4	39.4	16.8	4.5	0.6	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	11.4%	100.0%	50.1%	49.9%	1.1	10.3	1.0																100.0%
18-2	28.5%	100.0%	43.8%	56.2%	1.1	24.9	3.6	0.0															100.0%
17-3	30.2%	100.0%	40.0%	60.0%	1.2	24.7	5.4	0.1															100.0%
16-4	19.7%	100.0%	36.1%	63.9%	1.3	13.8	5.6	0.3															100.0%
15-5	7.8%	100.0%	29.2%	70.8%	1.5	4.4	3.0	0.4	0.0														100.0%
14-6	2.0%	100.0%	24.6%	75.4%	1.7	0.8	0.9	0.2	0.0														100.0%
13-7	0.3%	100.0%	11.9%	88.1%	1.9	0.1	0.2	0.1															100.0%
12-8	0.0%						0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%						0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	100.0%	40.2%	59.8%	1.2																		100.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2
Win Out	3.5%	100.0%	1.1	94.4	5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	1.2%	100.0%	1.1	94.0	6.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	1.4%	100.0%	1.1	92.8	7.2