Michigan
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +26.5 1
Results Rating +27.5 3
Pace 77.7 16
Improvement -2.7 284

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws
Shot Selection
Offense A 5 A A+ B A- A
Defense A+ 1 A+ B+ B- A- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% 6 A- 68% 15 +10.9 2
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 354 B 43% 54 -3.9 345
Three Pointers 42% 160 B- 36% 82 +2.1 108
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.2 5 A- +6.4 21
1st FG Attempt A 1.20 9
Second Chance A- 39.2% 9 A+ 1.36 1 A+ 0.53 1
Turnovers B 14.7% 60
Freethrows A- 0.38 13 C+ 73% 160 A- 0.28 13
Total Offense A +12.9 5

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B+ 61% 25 B 8.5% 48
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 131 D+ 6.9% 295
Three Pointers B 91% 36 B+ 0.1% 12
Total A- 67% 15 B- 4.8% 92

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% 360 A+ 41% 1 -11.2 1
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 9 A- 32% 13 +1.8 319
Three Pointers 43% 122 A 27% 1 -3.4 46
Shot Selection/Accuracy A+ -2.0 8 A+ -10.9 1
1st FG Attempt A+ 0.77 1
Second Chance B+ 25.2% 24 B- 0.96 75 B+ 0.24 30
Turnovers B- 18.4% 82
Freethrows A 0.22 7 C 72% 162 A- 0.16 10
Total Defense A+ +13.6 1

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A+ 27% 2 A+ 23.8% 2
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 20% 71 A- 9.4% 25
Three Pointers A+ 65% 1 B+ 1.8% 40
Total A+ 38% 1 A+ 10.1% 7

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 13.5 1 19.0 355
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 17 0.07 2
Improvement +0.1 #178 -2.8 #318

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile
Expected
50th Percentile
Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 2 1 1
Results Rating Rank 4 2 1
Conference Record 17 - 3 18 - 2 19 - 1
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed 2 1 1
NCAA Tourney Finish 2nd Round Final 4 Champion

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 38% 38% 31%
#1 Seed 89% 89% 83%
Top 2 Seed 100% 100% 100%
Top 4 Seed 100% 100% 100%
Top 6 Seed 100% 100% 100%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 1.1 1.1 1.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 98%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round100% 100% 100%
Sweet Sixteen88% 88% 85%
Elite Eight69% 69% 66%
Final Four51% 51% 47%
Championship Game35% 35% 32%
National Champion23% 23% 21%

Next Game: Minnesota (Home) - 97.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 28 - 2
Quad 1b7 - 014 - 3
Quad 29 - 123 - 3
Quad 34 - 028 - 3
Quad 42 - 030 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 172 Oakland W 121 - 78 99% +27  99% 1 - 0 A+ +39 A+ +28 A+ A+ A A- +7 C- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 65 Wake Forest W 85 - 84 OT 94% +2  56% 2 - 0 B +10 D+ -3 D- A C A+ +13 A+ D C+
 Fri, Nov 14 50 @TCU W 67 - 63 88% -2  23% 3 - 0 A +18 C +1 D+ A+ F A+ +17 A A+ C
 Wed, Nov 19 167 Middle Tennessee W 86 - 61 99% +13  89% 4 - 0 A +22 C- -1 D A+ D+ A+ +20 A+ B- B+
 Mon, Nov 24 45 San Diego St. W 94 - 54 91% +18  91% 5 - 0 A+ +51 A+ +21 A+ A+ A A+ +28 A+ A+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 33 Auburn W 102 - 72 87% +21  96% 6 - 0 A+ +45 A+ +28 A- A+ A+ A+ +16 A+ A+ D
 Wed, Nov 26 12 Gonzaga W 101 - 61 76% +25  100% 7 - 0 A+ +59 A+ +22 A+ C+ B+ A+ +32 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 111 Rutgers W 101 - 60 98% +22  94% 8 - 0 1 - 0 A+ +41 A+ +21 A+ A+ B A+ +19 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 35 Villanova W 89 - 61 91% +23  96% 9 - 0 A+ +39 A- +10 C+ A+ A+ A+ +27 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 104 @Maryland W 101 - 83 95% +3  59% 10 - 0 2 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +29 A+ C+ A- D+ -4 D F C
 Sun, Dec 21 200 La Salle W 102 - 50 99% +24  92% 11 - 0 A+ +47 A+ +20 A+ D- A- A+ +23 A+ B- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 81 McNeese St. W 112 - 71 97% +30  99% 12 - 0 A+ +45 A+ +21 A+ A+ A+ A+ +18 A+ A+ D
 Fri, Jan 2 56 USC W 96 - 66 96% +16  99% 13 - 0 3 - 0 A+ +37 A- +10 B+ B+ A A+ +22 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 115 @Penn St. W 74 - 72 96% +5  80% 14 - 0 4 - 0 B- +8 D+ -2 D D- B A +10 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 30 Wisconsin L 88 - 91 91% +2  56% 14 - 1 4 - 1 B +9 A +14 A- B- A- D+ -5 D+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 14 48 @Washington W 82 - 72 87% +8  91% 15 - 1 5 - 1 A+ +24 A +12 D+ A+ A A+ +12 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 89 @Oregon W 81 - 71 94% +6  91% 16 - 1 6 - 1 A +19 A +14 A+ A+ F+ B+ +6 A+ F C-
 Tue, Jan 20 38 Indiana W 86 - 72 92% +14  98% 17 - 1 7 - 1 A+ +25 A +14 A+ A+ D A +11 A A+ C
 Fri, Jan 23 36 Ohio St. W 74 - 62 91% +2  61% 18 - 1 8 - 1 A+ +23 B +7 B- A+ F A+ +17 A+ C+ A
 Tue, Jan 27 13 Nebraska W 75 - 72 84% -4  5% 19 - 1 9 - 1 A +19 B+ +8 A- A+ F A +11 C+ A+ B-
 Fri, Jan 30 10 @Michigan St. W 83 - 71 66% +7  92% 20 - 1 10 - 1 A+ +34 A+ +17 B A+ C- A+ +17 A+ A+ B
 Thu, Feb 5 115 Penn St. W 110 - 69 98% +27  97% 21 - 1 11 - 1 A+ +41 A+ +30 A+ A+ A+ A +10 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Feb 8 36 @Ohio St. W 82 - 61 81% +10  98% 22 - 1 12 - 1 A+ +38 A+ +18 A+ B A A+ +22 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Feb 11 69 @Northwestern W 87 - 75 91% -5  21% 23 - 1 13 - 1 A+ +23 A- +11 B A+ B A+ +12 A+ A- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 37 UCLA W 86 - 56 92% +11  99% 24 - 1 14 - 1 A+ +41 A+ +22 A+ B A+ A+ +21 A+ F A+
 Tue, Feb 17 7 @Purdue W 91 - 80 58% +11  84% 25 - 1 15 - 1 A+ +35 A+ +25 A+ A+ D A +10 A+ A F+
 Sat, Feb 21 2 Duke L 63 - 68 57% -2  26% 25 - 2 A +20 B+ +9 C- A A+ A +10 A+ D B
 Tue, Feb 24 59 Minnesota W 83 - 62 97%
 Fri, Feb 27 5 @Illinois W 81 - 80 54%
 Thu, Mar 5 26 @Iowa W 78 - 70 77%
 Sun, Mar 8 10 Michigan St. W 80 - 70 83%
Totals 28 - 3 18 - 2 +27 A +13 C A- A A+ +14 B- C+ A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A- B B- A- 49% 17% 42% A A A- A+ A+ B A- C+ A- A+ A+ A- A A+ 27% 30% 43% A+ A+ B+ B- B+ B- A C A-
1.27 68% 43% 36% +6 +2 1.20 39% 1.4 .53 15% .38 73% .28 0.89 41% 32% 27% -11 -2 0.77 25% 1.0 .24 18% .22 72% .27
Nov
3
Oakland A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 15% 53% B- A+ F+ A+ A+ A D- A+ C A- A+ F F D 31% 28% 41% A+ C- A+ F A+ C A+ F A-
1.56 85% 56% 52% +25 0 1.53 26% 2.3 .61 10% .19 92% .17 1.00 42% 47% 40% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.4 .18 14% .23 87% .20
Nov
11
Wake Forest D+ C+ A+ F F 50% 6% 44% A+ D- B A+ A C A+ D- A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 30% 28% 42% A+ A+ C- D- D C+ B- C B-
0.99 60% 67% 14% -11 +3 0.86 34% 1.3 .45 20% .53 68% .36 0.97 30% 26% 29% -15 -2 0.69 33% 1.3 .44 15% .29 76% .22
Nov
14
TCU C C F F+ D- 55% 14% 32% A D+ A+ D A+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A C+ A 33% 28% 39% A A A+ A+ A+ C A B+ A
0.96 54% 17% 29% -8 +2 0.91 54% 0.9 .50 32% .42 80% .33 0.90 50% 27% 33% -6 -1 0.87 26% 0.6 .15 16% .26 67% .17
Nov
19
Middle Tennessee C- A F+ F D- 49% 13% 38% B+ D B A+ A+ D+ A- D+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 17% 31% 53% A+ A+ B C B- B+ A- F B
1.10 70% 29% 14% -6 +2 0.93 31% 1.5 .46 17% .40 73% .29 0.78 40% 22% 29% -12 -3 0.73 27% 0.9 .24 19% .19 75% .14
Nov
24
San Diego St. A+ A A+ C- A 38% 7% 55% A A+ A+ A+ A+ A B D- C+ A+ A+ A- C A+ 18% 45% 36% A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A B D B-
1.24 67% 50% 32% +3 +2 1.11 41% 1.5 .59 17% .35 68% .24 0.71 30% 28% 35% -9 -5 0.75 26% 0.3 .07 23% .27 81% .22
Nov
25
Auburn A+ C+ A+ B B+ 38% 5% 57% A A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A A A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ 33% 23% 44% A A+ A+ A A+ D F A+ C+
1.44 57% 67% 38% +4 +2 1.14 44% 1.5 .67 13% .35 82% .29 1.01 35% 8% 43% -8 -1 0.85 30% 0.9 .26 11% .52 55% .29
Nov
26
Gonzaga A+ A+ F A+ A+ 46% 7% 47% A+ A+ D- A+ C+ B+ A D- B+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ 34% 37% 29% A A+ A+ A+ A+ C A A+ A+
1.25 77% 25% 48% +18 +2 1.42 16% 1.4 .23 17% .38 64% .24 0.76 32% 46% 16% -14 -2 0.69 24% 0.9 .22 14% .22 53% .12
Dec
6
Rutgers A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 3% 48% A+ A+ A A+ A+ B C F D+ A+ B A A+ A+ 22% 43% 35% A+ A+ C+ D- D+ A+ A+ A- A+
1.39 75% 50% 46% +18 +3 1.43 42% 1.3 .54 15% .24 67% .16 0.83 50% 30% 21% -12 -4 0.70 33% 1.3 .42 22% .16 67% .11
Dec
9
Villanova A- A A+ F C 35% 15% 51% B+ C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A- A+ A+ D A+ A+ 14% 25% 61% A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A A A A
1.14 68% 50% 25% -2 +1 1.00 36% 1.5 .52 15% .38 56% .21 0.78 38% 43% 26% -9 -2 0.79 14% 1.2 .16 19% .22 64% .14
Dec
13
Maryland A+ B A+ A+ A+ 57% 8% 36% A+ A+ C- B+ C+ A- A A+ A+ D+ B+ C- F F+ 27% 29% 44% A+ D C F F C A+ B- A+
1.45 63% 50% 63% +20 +3 1.47 25% 1.2 .29 13% .36 86% .31 1.19 50% 40% 43% +5 -2 1.08 35% 1.6 .58 17% .22 69% .16
Dec
21
La Salle A+ A+ F A+ A+ 38% 11% 51% B A+ B F D- A- A+ C A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ 19% 46% 35% A+ A+ B C B- A+ A- F C-
1.37 80% 17% 52% +19 +1 1.43 33% 0.7 .24 13% .46 67% .31 0.67 40% 28% 11% -20 -5 0.52 31% 0.9 .29 25% .27 93% .25
Dec
29
McNeese St. A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ 48% 10% 42% A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 27% 29% 44% A+ A+ A- A+ A+ D D+ B C-
1.34 79% 60% 29% +9 +2 1.24 48% 1.7 .83 18% .66 69% .45 0.85 39% 32% 24% -14 -2 0.71 29% 0.7 .21 11% .32 71% .23
Jan
2
USC A- A+ F F B+ 43% 12% 45% A- B+ B- A- B+ A A+ D A+ A+ D A A+ A+ 18% 41% 41% A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ F A D
1.15 80% 29% 23% +1 +1 1.07 31% 1.1 .34 13% .54 72% .39 0.79 67% 30% 25% -7 -4 0.80 28% 0.7 .20 25% .53 64% .34
Jan
6
Penn St. D+ C+ A+ F F+ 46% 8% 46% A D F A- D- B A C- A A A+ B+ A+ A+ 26% 26% 47% A+ A+ D F F C- D D D-
1.04 61% 50% 26% -3 +2 1.00 20% 1.4 .29 17% .32 74% .24 1.01 43% 36% 16% -17 -2 0.64 33% 1.5 .49 14% .37 78% .29
Jan
10
Wisconsin A C+ A+ B- B+ 51% 11% 38% A+ A- B C+ B- A- A+ A+ A+ D+ B F F D 31% 13% 56% B D+ A- F F B- D D+ D
1.22 56% 67% 35% +3 +2 1.11 29% 1.0 .29 12% .38 92% .35 1.26 56% 57% 41% +8 0 1.19 26% 1.9 .48 14% .37 78% .29
Jan
14
Washington A A+ F F D 37% 28% 35% B- D+ A+ A+ A+ A C+ A B A+ F A- A+ A+ 9% 38% 54% A+ A+ D+ F F B- A+ F+ A
1.15 80% 27% 11% -7 -1 0.85 40% 1.5 .60 11% .27 76% .21 1.01 100% 33% 23% -7 -4 0.80 38% 1.4 .52 17% .19 82% .15
Jan
17
Oregon A D+ A+ A+ A- 51% 2% 47% A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ F+ A+ D+ A+ B+ A B+ A+ A+ 39% 29% 31% A A+ D F F C- B+ B+ B+
1.20 50% 100% 45% +5 +3 1.19 44% 1.0 .44 21% .56 73% .41 1.05 45% 33% 25% -11 -1 0.78 38% 1.3 .51 16% .28 69% .19
Jan
20
Indiana A B- F A+ A 48% 2% 50% A+ A+ A A A+ D A+ F A+ A C A+ C A 25% 13% 62% A A A+ A+ A+ C B D- C+
1.23 57% 0% 41% +4 +3 1.16 38% 1.3 .50 19% .58 67% .39 1.03 62% 29% 34% 0 0 1.02 15% 0.8 .12 14% .30 83% .25
Jan
23
Ohio St. B A+ A F C- 47% 5% 49% A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F A+ F A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 24% 34% 42% A A+ B- C C+ A A+ A+ A+
1.14 70% 50% 19% -5 +3 0.98 44% 1.9 .85 22% .49 60% .29 0.95 50% 47% 24% -5 -3 0.86 33% 1.1 .36 20% .17 67% .12
Jan
27
Nebraska B+ A+ F F B 38% 9% 53% A+ A- A A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A D- C+ D C 32% 16% 52% B C+ A- A+ A+ B- A+ C+ A+
1.05 76% 25% 25% -1 +1 1.02 36% 1.6 .56 27% .44 83% .36 1.01 72% 33% 38% +7 0 1.16 21% 0.7 .15 15% .07 75% .05
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
30
Michigan St. A+ A- D+ C+ B+ 32% 32% 36% D B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ C- C- A+ A+ 35% 31% 35% B A+ B A+ A+ B F F F
1.14 63% 31% 33% -1 -2 0.96 34% 1.3 .44 18% .44 88% .39 0.98 65% 40% 18% -6 -2 0.88 38% 0.4 .15 19% .46 85% .39
Feb
5
Penn St. A+ A+ D A+ A+ 46% 11% 43% A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A A D+ B A+ A+ 37% 30% 33% A A+ A A+ A+ F F+ F+ F
1.54 73% 33% 50% +17 +2 1.39 48% 2.0 .96 13% .27 88% .24 0.97 65% 38% 11% -9 -1 0.81 21% 0.7 .14 7% .39 81% .32
Feb
8
Ohio St. A+ C+ D- A+ A+ 44% 22% 35% A A+ A+ F+ B A F A+ F A+ A+ B- B A+ 25% 35% 40% A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B+ B+ F C+
1.24 58% 33% 47% +6 0 1.15 44% 0.8 .36 12% .12 86% .10 0.92 42% 41% 32% -4 -3 0.88 25% 1.0 .25 18% .30 88% .26
Feb
11
Northwestern A- C+ F D C+ 53% 8% 39% A+ B A+ A- A+ B A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F A A 30% 33% 37% A+ A+ C+ A+ A- D+ A+ F A-
1.16 59% 25% 30% -3 +3 1.02 49% 1.1 .54 16% .43 70% .30 1.00 39% 50% 27% -5 -2 0.87 29% 1.0 .29 11% .21 93% .19
Feb
14
UCLA A+ A+ A+ B A+ 51% 13% 36% A A+ C+ A B A+ A+ F A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ 28% 35% 37% A- A+ D+ F F A+ A+ A+ A+
1.34 83% 50% 35% +15 +2 1.36 30% 1.1 .35 14% .47 65% .31 0.87 62% 19% 24% -12 -3 0.74 36% 1.4 .50 20% .24 50% .12
Feb
17
Purdue A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 38% 25% 38% B A+ A+ A- A+ D A+ A+ A+ A A+ C- C- A+ 32% 29% 39% B+ A+ B- A+ A F+ C- F F
1.31 61% 50% 50% +13 -1 1.27 43% 1.2 .53 20% .41 78% .32 1.15 50% 44% 36% 0 -1 1.00 35% 0.9 .33 9% .31 90% .28
Feb
21
Duke B+ D A+ F D+ 34% 20% 46% B C- C A+ A A+ A+ B- A+ A A C- A+ A+ 42% 24% 33% A+ A+ C F+ D B C+ C+ C+
1.02 47% 50% 22% -10 0 0.82 22% 1.4 .31 11% .33 72% .24 1.10 53% 45% 27% -4 0 0.93 39% 1.4 .55 18% .33 71% .24




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.7 17.6 45.2 34.5 99.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 2.7 17.6 45.2 34.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 34.5    34.5
18-2 100.0% 45.2    45.2
17-3 100.0% 17.6    17.6
16-4 100.0% 2.7    0.1 1.0 1.2 0.3
15-5 5.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 99.9% 99.9 97.4 1.0 1.2 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 34.5% 100.0% 50.7% 49.3% 1.1 32.0 2.5 0.0 100.0%
18-2 45.2% 100.0% 47.2% 52.8% 1.1 39.9 5.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 17.6% 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 1.2 14.6 2.9 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.7% 100.0% 34.3% 65.7% 1.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.1% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 1.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 47.2% 52.8% 1.1 100.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 17.5% 100.0% 1.1 94.5 5.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.7% 100.0% 1.1 92.7 7.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.6% 100.0% 1.1 90.4 9.6 0.0