Minnesota
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.6 #76
Expected Predictive Rating +5.0 #92
Pace 60.3 #360
Improvement +3.3 #50

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #95 B- C C B- B-
Defense #65 B- A- B- B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #166 1.31 #37 +3.4 #70
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #295 0.72 #223 -2.3 #292
Three Pointers 46% #86 0.99 #218 +1.8 #117
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #91 +3.0 #91
Freethrows 0.35 #42 69% #285 0.24 #97
Second Chance 31.0% #164 1.03 #165 0.32 #158
Turnovers 16.3% #151
Total Offense +3.2 #95

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #314 1.11 #111 +4.0 #55
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #45 0.70 #87 -1.3 #283
Three Pointers 41% #180 0.98 #118 +0.8 #146
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #66 +3.5 #66
Freethrows 0.26 #55 71% #121 0.18 #53
Second Chance 27.8% #77 0.80 #5 0.22 #10
Turnovers 18.3% #81
Total Defense +4.5 #65

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #83 -2.0% #33
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.3% #101 -4.9% #80
Possession Length 17.9 #242 18.9 #352
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #126 0.09 #8
Improvement +1.8 #88 +1.5 #95

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 2.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 2.4% 0.2%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 11.0
.500 or above 8.5% 22.7% 5.3%
.500 or above in Conference 1.6% 6.0% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four0.4% 1.7% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 1.7% 0.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Home) - 18.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 43 - 10
Quad 22 - 65 - 17
Quad 31 - 16 - 18
Quad 48 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 363 Gardner-Webb W 87 - 60 99% +25  1 - 0 +6 +1 B+ D+ F +4 B A D+
 Sat, Nov 8 348 Alcorn St. W 95 - 50 97% +30  2 - 0 +30 +15 D- A+ C+ +15 A+ C+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 54 @Missouri L 60 - 83 30% -3  2 - 1 -10 +0 C D+ C -13 F C+ F+
 Sat, Nov 15 258 Green Bay W 72 - 65 OT 93% +1  3 - 1 -1 -11 D F B- +9 A- B+ A-
 Tue, Nov 18 355 Chicago St. W 66 - 54 98% +6  4 - 1 -5 -8 F F B- +4 B- C+ B-
 Sat, Nov 22 97 San Francisco L 65 - 77 59% -6  4 - 2 -7 +1 A C- F -9 D C+ C+
 Thu, Nov 27 86 Stanford L 68 - 72 55% -1  4 - 3 +2 +5 A A+ D- -3 A+ F D
 Fri, Nov 28 46 Santa Clara L 75 - 86 35% -18  4 - 4 +1 +11 C A+ A -11 F B+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 30 Indiana W 73 - 64 34% +1  5 - 4 1 - 0 +21 +9 B+ A+ F +13 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 10 8 @Purdue L 57 - 85 7% -15  5 - 5 1 - 1 -4 -3 D- D- A- -3 C+ D+ B-
 Sun, Dec 14 309 Texas Southern W 89 - 53 95% +20  6 - 5 +24 +10 A+ D- C- +14 A A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 212 Campbell W 78 - 50 89% +18  7 - 5 +22 +12 B+ A+ C- +14 A- A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 343 Fairleigh Dickinson W 60 - 43 97% +7  8 - 5 +2 -11 F C+ F+ +16 A A+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 63 @Northwestern W 84 - 78 34% -2  9 - 5 2 - 1 +18 +21 A+ B+ C -3 C- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 21 Iowa W 70 - 67 28% +6  10 - 5 3 - 1 +17 +6 B+ F A+ +11 A+ A+ A
 Fri, Jan 9 48 USC L 69 - 70 OT 48% -3  10 - 6 3 - 2 +7 +6 B- C+ C+ +1 C A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 37 Wisconsin L 75 - 78 39% +1  10 - 7 3 - 3 +8 +12 A F+ A+ -5 C- A- D+
 Sat, Jan 17 7 @Illinois L 67 - 77 7% -2  10 - 8 3 - 4 +14 +12 B- A+ B- +1 B B+ B
 Tue, Jan 20 36 @Ohio St. L 74 - 82 OT 20% -2  10 - 9 3 - 5 +9 +6 C+ D+ A- +2 B+ D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 13 Nebraska L 57 - 76 23% -4  10 - 10 3 - 6 -4 -3 B F+ C -2 C A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 37 @Wisconsin L 63 - 67 20% +8  10 - 11 3 - 7 +13 +3 A D- D+ +10 C A+ A+
 Sun, Feb 1 112 @Penn St. L 75 - 77 55% -6  10 - 12 3 - 8 +4 +10 C+ A+ C -6 B- F C+
 Wed, Feb 4 10 Michigan St. L 60 - 69 19%
 Sun, Feb 8 107 Maryland W 72 - 65 74%
 Sat, Feb 14 41 @Washington L 65 - 73 23%
 Tue, Feb 17 82 @Oregon L 67 - 69 42%
 Sat, Feb 21 114 Rutgers W 71 - 64 75%
 Tue, Feb 24 1 @Michigan L 62 - 82 3%
 Sat, Feb 28 35 UCLA L 65 - 68 38%
 Wed, Mar 4 30 @Indiana L 65 - 75 17%
 Sat, Mar 7 63 Northwestern W 69 - 67 57%
Totals 13 - 18 6 - 14 +8 +3 B- C C +4 B- A- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.5 2.4 0.2 5.5 11th
12th 0.0 1.3 6.4 7.9 1.5 0.1 17.3 12th
13th 0.0 5.4 19.7 17.6 4.8 0.2 47.7 13th
14th 0.8 8.3 6.0 0.9 0.0 16.1 14th
15th 0.0 2.6 3.9 0.4 0.0 6.9 15th
16th 0.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 2.7 16th
17th 0.4 0.3 0.7 17th
18th 0.1 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.8 5.9 17.9 27.5 25.3 15.5 5.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.2% 53.1% 53.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 53.1%
10-10 1.4% 26.0% 26.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 26.0%
9-11 5.6% 2.0% 2.0% 11.2 0.1 0.0 5.5 2.0%
8-12 15.5% 0.3% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4 0.3%
7-13 25.3% 25.3
6-14 27.5% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 27.5
5-15 17.9% 17.9
4-16 5.9% 5.9
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 10.8 99.4 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%