Minnesota
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#111
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#145
Pace59.8#355
Improvement-0.6#223

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#170
First Shot+0.9#149
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#245
Layup/Dunks+3.8#57
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#280
Freethrows-0.4#203
Improvement+0.7#122

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#89
First Shot+0.8#144
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#25
Layups/Dunks-1.7#240
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#169
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#228
Freethrows+3.0#19
Improvement-1.4#286
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 10.0 10.0 11.0
.500 or above 5.9% 6.1% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 1.1% 1.1% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 57.7% 57.1% 70.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morgan St. (Home) - 95.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 62 - 12
Quad 22 - 53 - 18
Quad 32 - 25 - 19
Quad 47 - 012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 284   Oral Roberts W 80-57 88%     1 - 0 +13.3 +6.3 +8.7
  Nov 09, 2024 294   Nebraska Omaha W 68-64 89%     2 - 0 -6.2 -6.6 +0.6
  Nov 13, 2024 85   North Texas L 51-54 48%     2 - 1 +0.8 -5.4 +5.5
  Nov 16, 2024 98   Yale W 59-56 55%     3 - 1 +5.0 +3.3 +2.6
  Nov 19, 2024 218   Cleveland St. W 58-47 81%     4 - 1 +5.0 -11.9 +17.7
  Nov 25, 2024 237   Central Michigan W 68-65 84%     5 - 1 -4.2 -1.6 -2.4
  Nov 28, 2024 101   Wichita St. L 66-68 OT 44%     5 - 2 +2.7 -5.7 +8.4
  Nov 29, 2024 89   Wake Forest L 51-57 39%     5 - 3 +0.3 -8.7 +8.1
  Dec 01, 2024 263   Bethune-Cookman W 79-62 86%     6 - 3 +8.6 +11.6 -1.5
  Dec 04, 2024 14   Michigan St. L 72-90 19%     6 - 4 0 - 1 -5.3 +12.7 -19.6
  Dec 09, 2024 51   @ Indiana L 67-82 17%     6 - 5 0 - 2 -1.5 +2.0 -3.8
  Dec 21, 2024 333   Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-60 93%     7 - 5 +0.8 -4.2 +5.6
  Dec 29, 2024 350   Morgan St. W 79-61 96%    
  Jan 02, 2025 27   Purdue L 63-71 24%    
  Jan 06, 2025 29   Ohio St. L 62-69 26%    
  Jan 10, 2025 34   @ Wisconsin L 62-74 13%    
  Jan 13, 2025 13   @ Maryland L 59-75 7%    
  Jan 16, 2025 19   Michigan L 63-72 21%    
  Jan 21, 2025 43   @ Iowa L 67-78 15%    
  Jan 25, 2025 23   Oregon L 62-70 23%    
  Jan 28, 2025 14   @ Michigan St. L 57-72 8%    
  Feb 01, 2025 95   Washington W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 04, 2025 32   @ Penn St. L 63-75 13%    
  Feb 08, 2025 21   Illinois L 64-73 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 71   @ USC L 62-70 25%    
  Feb 18, 2025 20   @ UCLA L 54-69 9%    
  Feb 22, 2025 32   Penn St. L 66-72 28%    
  Feb 25, 2025 55   Northwestern L 59-63 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 40   @ Nebraska L 60-71 16%    
  Mar 05, 2025 34   Wisconsin L 65-71 29%    
  Mar 09, 2025 63   @ Rutgers L 64-72 23%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.1 2.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 1.6 0.1 7.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 12.8 16th
17th 0.3 2.5 6.6 9.1 5.7 1.3 0.1 25.6 17th
18th 2.8 8.6 12.8 11.5 5.8 1.4 0.1 43.1 18th
Total 2.8 8.9 15.4 18.6 18.0 14.5 10.2 5.9 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 58.8% 2.9% 55.9% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.6%
11-9 0.3% 39.4% 39.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 39.4%
10-10 0.6% 15.9% 15.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 15.9%
9-11 1.5% 3.5% 0.4% 3.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 3.1%
8-12 3.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.1%
7-13 5.9% 5.9
6-14 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 10.2
5-15 14.5% 14.5
4-16 18.0% 18.0
3-17 18.6% 18.6
2-18 15.4% 15.4
1-19 8.9% 8.9
0-20 2.8% 2.8
Total 100% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%