Minnesota
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.6 #76
Expected Predictive Rating +7.7 #77
Pace 60.3 #362
Improvement +5.8 #3

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #99 B- C C B- B-
Defense #66 B A+ B- B A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #133 1.27 #69 +3.3 #80
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #273 0.73 #213 -1.9 #270
Three Pointers 44% #131 0.99 #210 +1.0 #143
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #112 +2.5 #112
Freethrows 20.6 #42 68% #295 14.1 #95
Second Chance 32.7% #122 0.96 #273 0.31 #186
Turnovers 16.3% #155
Total Offense +3.2 #99

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #302 1.12 #134 +3.3 #70
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #45 0.67 #73 -1.0 #253
Three Pointers 40% #209 0.94 #107 +1.8 #115
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #63 +4.1 #63
Freethrows 14.9 #61 73% #219 10.9 #293
Second Chance 26.7% #57 0.77 #3 0.20 #8
Turnovers 18.2% #92
Total Defense +4.5 #66

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #90 -2.0% #36
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.3% #133 -6.1% #74
Possession Length 17.9 #240 18.8 #350
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #173 0.09 #11
Improvement +2.7 #36 +3.1 #27

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 13.5% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.1% 13.5% 5.4%
Average Seed 9.8 9.7 10.0
.500 or above 46.8% 62.2% 33.8%
.500 or above in Conference 27.7% 40.6% 16.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four3.5% 4.7% 2.5%
First Round7.1% 10.9% 3.9%
Second Round2.6% 4.0% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Home) - 45.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 10
Quad 23 - 57 - 15
Quad 32 - 19 - 17
Quad 47 - 016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 363 Gardner-Webb W 87 - 60 98%  +25  1 - 0 +8 +2 A- D- F +5 A A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 346 Alcorn St. W 95 - 50 97%  +30  2 - 0 +30 +15 D- A+ C +15 A+ C B-
 Wed, Nov 12 51 @Missouri L 60 - 83 28%  -3  2 - 1 -9 -0 C D C -12 F B+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 249 Green Bay W 72 - 65 OT 92%  +1  3 - 1 -1 -8 D+ F B+ +7 A A- A
 Tue, Nov 18 353 Chicago St. W 66 - 54 98%  +6  4 - 1 -4 -7 F F B- +4 B B B
 Sat, Nov 22 100 San Francisco L 65 - 77 60%  -6  4 - 2 -7 +2 A+ C- F -10 D- B- B-
 Thu, Nov 27 79 Stanford L 68 - 72 50%  -1  4 - 3 +4 +6 A+ A+ D- -2 A+ F D
 Fri, Nov 28 61 Santa Clara L 75 - 86 45%  -18  4 - 4 -2 +9 C- A+ A+ -11 F A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 25 Indiana W 73 - 64 32%  +1  5 - 4 1 - 0 +22 +9 A A+ F +13 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 4 @Purdue L 57 - 85 6%  -15  5 - 5 1 - 1 -2 -1 D+ D B+ -3 C+ D+ C+
 Sun, Dec 14 335 Texas Southern W 89 - 53 97%  +20  6 - 5 +22 +11 A+ F C- +11 B+ A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 199 Campbell W 78 - 50 88%  +18  7 - 5 +23 +13 A+ A+ C +14 A- A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 349 Fairleigh Dickinson W 60 - 43 97%  +7  8 - 5 +1 -12 F C F +16 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 60 @Northwestern W 84 - 78 33%  -2  9 - 5 2 - 1 +18 +21 A+ B+ B- -2 C A+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 20 Iowa W 70 - 67 29%  +6  10 - 5 3 - 1 +16 +5 A- F A+ +11 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 46 USC L 69 - 70 OT 48%  -3  10 - 6 3 - 2 +7 +4 C+ C B- +2 C A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 43 Wisconsin L 70 - 71 46% 
 Sat, Jan 17 9 @Illinois L 62 - 78 7% 
 Tue, Jan 20 30 @Ohio St. L 65 - 75 19% 
 Sat, Jan 24 23 Nebraska L 65 - 70 32% 
 Wed, Jan 28 43 @Wisconsin L 67 - 74 25% 
 Sun, Feb 1 105 @Penn St. W 70 - 69 50% 
 Wed, Feb 4 14 Michigan St. L 61 - 68 25% 
 Sun, Feb 8 107 Maryland W 71 - 65 72% 
 Sat, Feb 14 47 @Washington L 66 - 72 29% 
 Tue, Feb 17 65 @Oregon L 67 - 71 35% 
 Sat, Feb 21 131 Rutgers W 71 - 62 79% 
 Tue, Feb 24 1 @Michigan L 61 - 83 2% 
 Sat, Feb 28 38 UCLA L 67 - 69 41% 
 Wed, Mar 4 25 @Indiana L 64 - 75 16% 
 Sat, Mar 7 60 Northwestern W 70 - 68 56% 
Totals 15 - 16 8 - 12 +8 +3 B- C C +4 B A+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 2.7 1.1 0.1 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.6 2.7 0.2 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.0 1.1 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.1 2.1 6.4 3.2 0.2 11.9 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 6.3 5.9 0.8 0.0 14.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 4.8 7.1 1.8 0.1 14.3 12th
13th 0.1 3.0 7.4 3.2 0.2 13.9 13th
14th 0.0 1.2 4.7 3.1 0.4 9.4 14th
15th 0.3 2.2 2.4 0.3 5.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.5 16th
17th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 17th
18th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.2 1.7 5.2 11.1 16.9 19.4 17.8 13.6 8.0 4.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 100.0% 4.2% 95.8% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.5% 91.7% 91.7% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.7%
13-7 1.4% 82.4% 82.4% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 82.4%
12-8 4.0% 63.8% 0.4% 63.4% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.3 1.5 63.7%
11-9 8.0% 35.7% 0.1% 35.6% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 0.0 5.2 35.7%
10-10 13.6% 12.1% 12.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.1 12.0 12.1%
9-11 17.8% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 17.5 1.2%
8-12 19.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 19.4 0.1%
7-13 16.9% 16.9
6-14 11.1% 11.1
5-15 5.2% 5.2
4-16 1.7% 1.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.1% 0.0% 9.1% 9.8 90.9 9.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%