Minnesota
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#92
Expected Predictive Rating+5.8#86
Pace59.9#355
Improvement+4.4#31

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#97
First Shot+2.7#100
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#181
Layup/Dunks+3.7#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#241
Freethrows-0.4#194
Improvement+5.0#6

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#88
First Shot+0.8#151
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#21
Layups/Dunks-0.5#186
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#219
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#230
Freethrows+2.4#38
Improvement-0.6#218
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.9% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 1.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 10.6 10.4 11.0
.500 or above 10.7% 24.3% 6.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.6% 2.1% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.4% 22.1% 50.7%
First Four0.4% 1.1% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 1.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn St. (Away) - 25.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 53 - 11
Quad 23 - 46 - 15
Quad 31 - 27 - 17
Quad 46 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 315   Oral Roberts W 80-57 94%     1 - 0 +11.5 +3.7 +9.5
  Nov 09, 2024 212   Nebraska Omaha W 68-64 85%     2 - 0 -1.2 -5.3 +4.4
  Nov 13, 2024 70   North Texas L 51-54 53%     2 - 1 +2.3 -4.8 +6.4
  Nov 16, 2024 69   Yale W 59-56 53%     3 - 1 +8.4 +5.2 +4.0
  Nov 19, 2024 157   Cleveland St. W 58-47 78%     4 - 1 +9.0 -9.7 +19.5
  Nov 25, 2024 225   Central Michigan W 68-65 87%     5 - 1 -3.0 -1.4 -1.3
  Nov 28, 2024 134   Wichita St. L 66-68 OT 67%     5 - 2 -0.5 -7.8 +7.4
  Nov 29, 2024 58   Wake Forest L 51-57 36%     5 - 3 +3.7 -6.5 +9.3
  Dec 01, 2024 279   Bethune-Cookman W 79-62 91%     6 - 3 +8.0 +12.2 -2.7
  Dec 04, 2024 15   Michigan St. L 72-90 21%     6 - 4 0 - 1 -3.6 +13.5 -18.7
  Dec 09, 2024 53   @ Indiana L 67-82 26%     6 - 5 0 - 2 -2.4 +1.5 -4.3
  Dec 21, 2024 322   Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-60 95%     7 - 5 +1.6 -1.4 +3.6
  Dec 29, 2024 329   Morgan St. W 90-68 95%     8 - 5 +9.0 +15.0 -4.4
  Jan 02, 2025 9   Purdue L 61-81 19%     8 - 6 0 - 3 -4.5 +6.0 -14.5
  Jan 06, 2025 25   Ohio St. L 88-89 2OT 28%     8 - 7 0 - 4 +11.2 +10.5 +0.8
  Jan 10, 2025 17   @ Wisconsin L 59-80 12%     8 - 8 0 - 5 -2.0 -2.7 -0.8
  Jan 13, 2025 16   @ Maryland L 71-77 11%     8 - 9 0 - 6 +13.2 +6.6 +6.7
  Jan 16, 2025 18   Michigan W 84-81 OT 23%     9 - 9 1 - 6 +16.6 +17.6 -0.9
  Jan 21, 2025 60   @ Iowa W 72-67 29%     10 - 9 2 - 6 +16.9 +4.9 +12.2
  Jan 25, 2025 45   Oregon W 77-69 38%     11 - 9 3 - 6 +17.1 +13.2 +4.3
  Jan 28, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 51-73 11%     11 - 10 3 - 7 -2.6 -3.9 -2.0
  Feb 01, 2025 89   Washington L 68-71 59%     11 - 11 3 - 8 +0.8 +2.8 -2.3
  Feb 04, 2025 50   @ Penn St. L 67-74 26%    
  Feb 08, 2025 13   Illinois L 67-76 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 54   @ USC L 66-72 26%    
  Feb 18, 2025 29   @ UCLA L 59-70 15%    
  Feb 22, 2025 50   Penn St. L 70-72 45%    
  Feb 25, 2025 56   Northwestern L 64-65 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 48   @ Nebraska L 64-71 24%    
  Mar 05, 2025 17   Wisconsin L 66-74 24%    
  Mar 09, 2025 63   @ Rutgers L 66-71 29%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.1 1.8 10th
11th 0.2 2.0 0.6 2.7 11th
12th 1.4 2.7 0.1 4.2 12th
13th 0.3 4.3 1.4 6.0 13th
14th 0.0 2.3 5.7 0.3 8.2 14th
15th 0.5 8.0 2.9 0.0 11.4 15th
16th 0.1 5.3 9.4 0.6 15.4 16th
17th 0.6 6.5 14.1 4.1 0.1 25.3 17th
18th 5.6 11.7 6.0 0.3 23.7 18th
Total 6.2 18.4 25.9 24.4 15.0 7.1 2.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-10 0.5% 38.3% 38.3% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 38.3%
9-11 2.4% 12.3% 12.3% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.1 12.3%
8-12 7.1% 0.7% 0.7% 11.0 0.1 7.0 0.7%
7-13 15.0% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 15.0 0.1%
6-14 24.4% 24.4
5-15 25.9% 25.9
4-16 18.4% 18.4
3-17 6.2% 6.2
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 99.4 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.2%