Minnesota
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.0 59
Results Rating +6.5 87
Pace 59.5 363
Improvement +4.6 31

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 80 B C C+ B- B-
Defense B 53 B- A- B- B+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 196 A- 67% 28 +3.2 75
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 337 C- 36% 231 -2.7 308
Three Pointers 48% 47 C 34% 155 +3.8 59
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 77 B +3.3 76
1st FG Attempt B 1.10 64
Second Chance C 30.4% 179 C 1.04 167 C 0.32 164
Turnovers C+ 16.4% 155
Freethrows B 0.35 59 D 69% 287 B- 0.24 117
Total Offense B- +4.0 80

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A 67% 7 C+ 10.2% 134
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A+ 49% 6 C+ 4.6% 153
Three Pointers A- 95% 7 F+ 1.9% 343
Total A+ 75% 1 C 5.4% 170

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 310 C 57% 158 -3.2 76
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 47 C 38% 178 +1.8 317
Three Pointers 41% 178 B 31% 67 -1.6 114
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -0.9 40 B- -2.0 99
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 81
Second Chance B 26.6% 54 A 0.84 10 A- 0.22 16
Turnovers B- 18.5% 78
Freethrows B+ 0.24 23 C 72% 192 B+ 0.18 23
Total Defense B +4.9 53

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 276 C 11.8% 140
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 39% 340 D+ 3.1% 292
Three Pointers B 79% 54 C- 0.7% 197
Total C- 58% 223 C- 5.0% 220

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.1 259 18.9 353
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 178 0.09 10
Improvement +2.8 #66 +1.8 #94

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 79 63 51
Results Rating Rank 111 80 64
Conference Record 6 - 14 7 - 13 9 - 11
Conference Finish 13 12 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 3% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 3% 0%
Average Seed 11.0 10.8 11.1
.500 or above 12% 53% 11%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 10% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 3% 0%
First Round0% 2% 0%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Michigan (Away) - 2.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 23 - 46 - 15
Quad 31 - 38 - 17
Quad 47 - 015 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 364 Gardner-Webb W 87 - 60 99% +25  99% 1 - 0 B- +5 C- -1 A- D+ F B+ +6 A A C-
 Sat, Nov 8 345 Alcorn St. W 95 - 50 98% +30  98% 2 - 0 A+ +29 A +12 D A+ C+ A+ +17 A+ B- A-
 Wed, Nov 12 49 @Missouri L 60 - 83 31% -3  46% 2 - 1 D -9 D+ -3 C C- C- F+ -9 F B- D-
 Sat, Nov 15 225 Green Bay W 72 - 65 OT 92% +1  56% 3 - 1 C +0 F -12 D+ F B+ A+ +12 A- A- B+
 Tue, Nov 18 347 Chicago St. W 66 - 54 98% +6  91% 4 - 1 C- -4 F+ -10 F F B- A- +7 B B- B+
 Sat, Nov 22 127 San Francisco L 65 - 77 73% -6  0% 4 - 2 D -10 D+ -3 A D+ F D- -7 D- C B-
 Thu, Nov 27 77 Stanford L 68 - 72 55% -1  33% 4 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +3 A+ A D- C -0 A+ F D-
 Fri, Nov 28 42 Santa Clara L 75 - 86 36% -18  0% 4 - 4 C+ +2 B+ +8 C- A+ A D- -7 F B+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 38 Indiana W 73 - 64 43% +1  49% 5 - 4 1 - 0 A +20 B- +5 B+ A+ F A+ +15 A+ A D-
 Wed, Dec 10 7 @Purdue L 57 - 85 8% -15  0% 5 - 5 1 - 1 C- -4 D -5 D- D A C -0 C+ D B-
 Sun, Dec 14 305 Texas Southern W 89 - 53 96% +20  94% 6 - 5 A+ +24 B+ +9 A+ D C A+ +16 A A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 197 Campbell W 78 - 50 90% +18  97% 7 - 5 A +23 A- +11 A- A+ C- A+ +16 A- A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 333 Fairleigh Dickinson W 60 - 43 97% +7  78% 8 - 5 C+ +3 F -14 F C+ F A+ +19 A A+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 69 @Northwestern W 84 - 78 41% -2  20% 9 - 5 2 - 1 A- +17 A+ +19 A+ B+ B- C -1 D+ A+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 26 Iowa W 70 - 67 36% +6  91% 10 - 5 3 - 1 A- +16 C+ +2 B+ F A+ A+ +14 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 56 USC L 69 - 70 OT 58% -3  23% 10 - 6 3 - 2 B- +6 C+ +3 B- C+ B- B- +3 C- A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 30 Wisconsin L 75 - 78 39% +1  67% 10 - 7 3 - 3 B +9 A- +10 A F+ A+ C -1 C- A D+
 Sat, Jan 17 5 @Illinois L 67 - 77 7% -2  28% 10 - 8 3 - 4 A- +16 B+ +9 B A+ B- B +5 B+ A- B+
 Tue, Jan 20 36 @Ohio St. L 74 - 82 OT 21% -2  17% 10 - 9 3 - 5 B +9 B- +4 C+ D+ A B +5 B+ C- C-
 Sat, Jan 24 13 Nebraska L 57 - 76 25% -4  27% 10 - 10 3 - 6 C- -3 D+ -4 B+ F C+ C -1 C A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 30 @Wisconsin L 63 - 67 20% +8  85% 10 - 11 3 - 7 B+ +14 C +0 A D- D+ A+ +13 C A+ A+
 Sun, Feb 1 115 @Penn St. L 75 - 77 61% -6  2% 10 - 12 3 - 8 C+ +4 B+ +8 C+ A+ C D+ -4 B F C+
 Wed, Feb 4 10 Michigan St. W 76 - 73 24% +8  97% 11 - 12 4 - 8 A +19 A+ +19 A+ D+ A+ C+ +1 A- C- D-
 Sun, Feb 8 104 Maryland L 62 - 67 76% +1  55% 11 - 13 4 - 9 C- -4 B- +4 B+ C+ C F+ -9 D- B- C+
 Sat, Feb 14 48 @Washington L 57 - 69 31% -8  15% 11 - 14 4 - 10 C+ +2 C- -2 B- C F B- +2 F F A+
 Tue, Feb 17 89 @Oregon W 61 - 44 49% +5  89% 12 - 14 5 - 10 A+ +26 C +1 B D F A+ +28 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 21 111 Rutgers W 80 - 61 79% +10  85% 13 - 14 6 - 10 A +19 A+ +20 A+ C+ C+ B- +3 C- A+ D-
 Tue, Feb 24 1 @Michigan L 62 - 83 3%
 Sat, Feb 28 37 UCLA L 67 - 69 43%
 Wed, Mar 4 38 @Indiana L 66 - 74 23%
 Sat, Mar 7 69 Northwestern W 70 - 66 64%
Totals 14 - 17 7 - 13 +9 B- +4 A+ B B- B +5 C D B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- A- C- C B 38% 22% 48% B- B C C C C+ B D B- B C C B B- 34% 26% 41% B+ B- B A A- B- B+ C B+
1.14 67% 36% 34% +3 +1 1.10 30% 1.0 .32 16% .35 69% .24 1.02 57% 38% 31% -2 -1 0.96 27% 0.8 .22 18% .24 72% .25
Nov
3		 Gardner-Webb C- A+ F C B+ 52% 13% 35% B+ A- C+ F+ D+ F A+ F A+ B+ C+ A+ D+ A- 37% 29% 33% A+ A D+ A+ A C- F A F
1.21 84% 17% 35% +12 +2 1.29 38% 0.9 .34 19% .52 67% .34 0.83 53% 7% 35% -11 -1 0.78 25% 0.5 .11 19% .47 59% .28
Nov
8		 Alcorn St. A C- D- F F 63% 6% 31% A D A+ C+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ D A+ 35% 48% 17% A+ A+ C+ B B- A- D+ A+ C
1.36 60% 33% 27% -3 +4 1.04 58% 1.3 .73 17% .64 86% .55 0.72 47% 17% 38% -13 -4 0.69 24% 0.8 .20 23% .28 60% .17
Nov
12		 Missouri D+ C A+ F C+ 33% 27% 40% C C A F C- C- B+ F D F+ F D F F 28% 26% 46% A+ F A+ F B- D- C C- C-
0.97 53% 67% 22% -1 -1 0.98 39% 0.6 .22 18% .33 53% .18 1.34 85% 42% 48% +18 -1 1.35 13% 3.0 .39 15% .38 70% .27
Nov
15		 Green Bay F A F+ F D+ 35% 21% 44% C D+ D+ F F B+ A+ F A A+ C A+ A A 41% 16% 43% C- A- B+ A+ A- B+ F+ A+ C
1.01 71% 30% 29% -1 0 1.00 27% 0.7 .20 11% .61 51% .32 0.91 57% 25% 27% -7 +1 0.90 19% 0.9 .16 20% .42 63% .26
Nov
18		 Chicago St. F+ B- B F F+ 29% 17% 54% D- F B F F B- A+ B- A+ A- C C- A+ C+ 31% 47% 22% A B A- D+ B- B+ A- A+ A
1.05 67% 43% 27% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.5 .20 18% .52 78% .41 0.86 53% 39% 18% -6 -4 0.82 23% 1.0 .23 19% .20 60% .12
Nov
22		 San Francisco D+ C+ F A+ B+ 62% 10% 28% A+ A C+ F D+ F A+ F A+ D- A- C F D- 38% 17% 45% C D- D B C B- D+ D+ D
1.03 58% 25% 45% +4 +3 1.15 28% 0.9 .25 19% .59 50% .29 1.22 50% 38% 48% +6 0 1.15 36% 1.0 .36 17% .36 74% .27
Nov
27		 Stanford C+ C- D A+ A+ 33% 15% 51% B A+ D+ A+ A D- B- D C C A F A+ A+ 47% 10% 43% C- A+ F D+ F D- C+ D- C-
1.06 54% 33% 45% +6 0 1.15 24% 1.8 .44 22% .36 72% .26 1.12 46% 60% 23% -11 +2 0.84 47% 1.1 .50 12% .32 78% .25
Nov
28		 Santa Clara B+ C+ F D- D+ 43% 11% 46% B C- A- A+ A+ A A+ C+ A+ D- D+ A F F 26% 17% 57% B+ F A+ F B+ C- B C+ B
1.13 60% 20% 29% -5 +2 0.96 38% 1.3 .50 17% .49 74% .36 1.29 64% 33% 53% +17 0 1.36 19% 1.8 .35 15% .19 73% .14
Dec
3		 Indiana B- B+ F C B 38% 18% 45% B+ B+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ D A+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ 39% 12% 49% C+ A+ A+ F A D- C A+ A-
1.10 60% 29% 33% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.4 .47 24% .54 70% .38 0.97 53% 33% 29% -6 +1 0.92 14% 1.4 .20 11% .34 60% .20
Dec
10		 Purdue D C C- F F+ 27% 27% 45% C D- F+ B+ D A B+ A A- C D- F+ D+ C 32% 34% 34% A C+ F+ B- D B- F B+ D-
0.87 57% 36% 22% -9 -2 0.80 14% 1.2 .16 14% .27 73% .20 1.30 73% 50% 38% +11 -2 1.19 44% 1.1 .50 14% .39 68% .27
Dec
14		 Texas Southern B+ A+ F A+ A+ 29% 8% 63% C A+ D+ D D C B+ C+ B+ A+ C C- A+ A 33% 31% 37% B+ A A- A+ A+ A+ B F D+
1.28 79% 25% 43% +14 +1 1.31 29% 1.0 .29 16% .43 72% .31 0.76 56% 40% 17% -10 -2 0.80 20% 0.6 .11 24% .25 92% .23
Dec
21		 Campbell A- A+ F A- A 44% 22% 33% C A- C A+ A+ C- F A+ F A+ D+ D+ A+ A- 38% 21% 41% A- A- C- A+ A+ A+ D- F F
1.29 85% 20% 40% +11 0 1.24 30% 2.0 .61 18% .18 89% .16 0.82 60% 38% 19% -9 0 0.85 34% 0.4 .13 28% .44 79% .34
Dec
29		 Fairleigh Dickinson F C- F D F 26% 15% 60% C- F B C- C+ F F F F A+ F+ A+ A A 21% 21% 57% B+ A C- A+ A+ A D+ A+ B-
0.99 58% 14% 32% -5 0 0.91 33% 0.9 .31 20% .25 50% .12 0.71 67% 11% 25% -12 -1 0.76 33% 0.3 .10 23% .30 57% .17
Jan
3		 Northwestern A+ A A+ D A+ 50% 13% 37% A A+ B- A B+ B- A+ A+ A+ C F C- A- D+ 37% 23% 40% C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ D- C-
1.27 70% 67% 29% +7 +2 1.20 35% 1.1 .39 17% .47 85% .40 1.18 79% 42% 29% +5 0 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 6% .32 80% .26
Jan
6		 Iowa C+ B+ A+ F B+ 40% 18% 42% B- B+ F F F A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F B- A+ 31% 29% 40% A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C A
1.03 67% 63% 26% +3 0 1.09 11% 0.7 .07 15% .48 75% .36 0.98 44% 53% 33% 0 -2 0.98 36% 0.6 .21 21% .24 77% .18
Jan
9		 USC C+ B F B+ B 20% 22% 59% D B- A- D C+ B- C- F F+ B- D D- C- D+ 38% 27% 35% B C- F A+ A+ A+ A F B-
1.05 60% 27% 37% 0 -1 1.00 36% 0.8 .29 17% .27 60% .16 1.07 67% 46% 35% +6 -1 1.13 45% 0.3 .12 24% .34 82% .28
Jan
13		 Wisconsin A- A A+ D- A+ 38% 27% 35% C A F C+ F+ A+ A+ D- A+ C F+ A- F D 20% 18% 62% A+ C- A+ C A D+ C+ C- C+
1.16 67% 62% 29% +7 -1 1.15 13% 1.0 .13 8% .40 67% .27 1.21 70% 33% 42% +9 -1 1.18 21% 1.2 .24 11% .31 78% .24
Jan
17		 Illinois B+ A+ F C- B 19% 30% 52% C- B B+ A+ A+ B- F A+ F+ B B- F C B- 22% 22% 57% A+ B+ D A+ A- B+ D- D- F+
1.09 80% 25% 32% -1 -3 0.94 31% 1.4 .42 11% .05 100% .05 1.25 60% 50% 35% +4 -1 1.07 46% 0.9 .43 16% .37 84% .31
Jan
20		 Ohio St. B- A+ F C- C+ 29% 27% 45% C+ C+ D C D+ A A+ A A+ B D- D+ A B+ 33% 28% 39% B- B+ C- C C- C- B+ B+ A-
1.05 71% 23% 32% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.0 .24 13% .41 80% .33 1.17 72% 47% 29% +4 -1 1.07 37% 1.1 .40 14% .30 72% .22
Jan
24		 Nebraska D+ A+ C- D- B 27% 13% 60% A B+ D- F F C+ C+ F D C C+ F C C 42% 9% 49% D+ C B- A+ A+ D+ A+ F B+
0.88 77% 33% 28% -1 0 1.00 18% 0.4 .08 20% .23 50% .12 1.17 64% 80% 35% +7 +2 1.19 25% 0.5 .13 12% .16 100% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Wisconsin C F A+ A+ A 35% 9% 57% A A D- F+ D- D+ D- F F A+ A+ A- F C 26% 7% 67% C+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ F B F+
0.99 44% 75% 42% +5 +1 1.15 17% 0.8 .14 17% .21 55% .11 1.05 45% 33% 43% +5 +1 1.14 17% 0.6 .10 20% .43 73% .31
Feb
1		 Penn St. B+ A+ A+ F C 36% 5% 59% A- C+ B- A+ A+ C A+ A A+ D+ B- B C- B 45% 22% 33% C+ B F F F C+ A+ F A+
1.18 81% 50% 27% +3 +2 1.11 32% 1.8 .56 19% .33 82% .27 1.21 57% 36% 35% 0 0 1.02 38% 1.7 .63 16% .17 89% .15
Feb
4		 Michigan St. A+ A+ F A+ A+ 33% 20% 47% B- A+ F A+ D+ A+ A+ C- A+ C+ B- A- C A- 34% 26% 40% C+ A- C+ D+ C- D- B B+ B+
1.21 73% 0% 48% +7 0 1.16 10% 1.0 .10 10% .54 71% .39 1.16 59% 31% 35% -1 -1 0.98 39% 1.2 .45 14% .32 71% .22
Feb
8		 Maryland B- F A+ A- B 24% 2% 73% B+ B+ B- C- C+ C B- F D+ F+ F F A+ F 22% 27% 51% A+ D- C+ B- B- C+ D+ C+ C-
1.13 40% 100% 40% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.0 .30 16% .31 57% .17 1.22 78% 73% 24% +6 -2 1.10 34% 1.0 .34 18% .38 71% .27
Feb
14		 Washington C- A+ A+ F B- 26% 17% 57% B+ B- D+ B+ C F C D+ C B- F F A F 34% 39% 27% A F A- F F A+ C+ A+ A
0.95 82% 57% 21% -2 0 0.98 23% 1.1 .26 22% .26 67% .17 1.15 79% 69% 27% +16 -3 1.29 30% 1.8 .55 22% .28 54% .15
Feb
17		 Oregon C A+ D+ C B 19% 23% 57% D+ B A- F D F D- B D A+ D- A A+ A+ 47% 14% 39% D A+ A+ C- A+ B+ A+ F A+
1.02 78% 36% 33% +3 -2 1.04 37% 0.5 .20 22% .21 80% .17 0.74 65% 29% 5% -15 +1 0.76 19% 1.2 .23 20% .04 100% .04
Feb
21		 Rutgers A+ A- D+ A+ A+ 39% 7% 54% A A+ F+ A+ C+ C+ F D+ F B- C C- D+ D+ 32% 34% 34% B- C- A+ C- A+ D- A+ C- A+
1.37 67% 33% 56% +21 +2 1.48 24% 1.4 .33 17% .14 71% .10 1.04 56% 41% 35% +1 -2 1.00 19% 1.2 .22 12% .16 75% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.6 3.5 0.2 4.3 10th
11th 3.4 15.6 3.8 0.0 22.9 11th
12th 2.4 24.4 15.4 0.5 42.6 12th
13th 12.5 14.9 1.1 28.6 13th
14th 1.4 0.0 1.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 16.4 42.8 32.7 7.9 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.3% 22.8% 22.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 22.8%
9-11 7.9% 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.8 1.9%
8-12 32.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 32.7 0.1%
7-13 42.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 42.7
6-14 16.4% 16.4
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 11.0 99.7 0.2%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.7%