Northwestern
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#57
Expected Predictive Rating+8.8#63
Pace63.4#313
Improvement+1.0#129

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#81
First Shot+4.0#74
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#212
Layup/Dunks+1.7#120
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#69
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#232
Freethrows+2.2#62
Improvement+2.4#65

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#45
First Shot+2.7#93
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#8
Layups/Dunks+0.8#137
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#226
Freethrows+0.2#170
Improvement-1.4#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.5% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 28.4% 12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.7% 27.8% 11.9%
Average Seed 9.5 9.3 9.8
.500 or above 63.6% 79.5% 54.3%
.500 or above in Conference 15.4% 26.3% 9.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 2.0% 8.3%
First Four5.7% 7.5% 4.7%
First Round15.1% 24.4% 9.7%
Second Round6.4% 10.7% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 2.3% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland (Home) - 36.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 24 - 47 - 15
Quad 34 - 012 - 15
Quad 45 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 274   Lehigh W 90-46 95%     1 - 0 +34.8 +16.5 +19.9
  Nov 09, 2024 64   @ Dayton L 66-71 42%     1 - 1 +6.5 -1.2 +7.7
  Nov 12, 2024 151   Illinois-Chicago W 83-74 86%     2 - 1 +6.8 +5.9 +0.6
  Nov 15, 2024 340   Eastern Illinois W 67-58 OT 98%     3 - 1 -5.1 -5.4 +0.9
  Nov 19, 2024 190   Montana St. W 72-69 89%     4 - 1 -1.2 +4.8 -5.7
  Nov 22, 2024 187   Pepperdine W 68-50 89%     5 - 1 +13.8 -2.8 +17.6
  Nov 28, 2024 81   Butler L 69-71 60%     5 - 2 +4.8 +2.7 +2.0
  Nov 29, 2024 109   UNLV W 66-61 71%     6 - 2 +8.5 +2.3 +6.8
  Dec 03, 2024 37   @ Iowa L 79-80 29%     6 - 3 0 - 1 +14.2 +10.3 +3.8
  Dec 06, 2024 12   Illinois W 70-66 OT 31%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +18.6 -0.2 +18.5
  Dec 15, 2024 101   Georgia Tech W 71-60 69%     8 - 3 +15.3 +1.7 +13.6
  Dec 21, 2024 122   DePaul W 84-64 82%     9 - 3 +19.5 +9.0 +10.2
  Dec 29, 2024 203   Northeastern W 85-60 91%     10 - 3 +19.9 +20.5 +2.1
  Jan 02, 2025 53   @ Penn St. L 80-84 35%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +9.3 +10.8 -1.4
  Jan 05, 2025 14   @ Purdue L 61-79 16%     10 - 5 1 - 3 +2.1 -0.5 +1.4
  Jan 12, 2025 11   Michigan St. L 68-78 31%     10 - 6 1 - 4 +4.6 +4.7 -0.3
  Jan 16, 2025 19   Maryland L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 19, 2025 10   @ Michigan L 66-78 14%    
  Jan 22, 2025 52   Indiana W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 26, 2025 12   @ Illinois L 67-78 15%    
  Jan 29, 2025 72   Rutgers W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 24   Wisconsin L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 04, 2025 60   USC W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 92   @ Washington W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 11, 2025 27   @ Oregon L 66-73 25%    
  Feb 16, 2025 48   Nebraska W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 20, 2025 29   @ Ohio St. L 66-72 27%    
  Feb 25, 2025 108   @ Minnesota W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 28, 2025 37   Iowa W 77-76 50%    
  Mar 03, 2025 28   UCLA L 63-64 47%    
  Mar 08, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 65-75 19%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.2 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 1.3 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 2.8 0.3 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.9 2.0 0.1 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 3.1 4.4 0.6 0.0 8.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 6.3 2.6 0.1 10.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 5.3 5.1 0.4 11.5 13th
14th 0.4 3.8 6.8 1.8 0.1 12.9 14th
15th 0.2 2.9 7.2 3.4 0.2 14.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.8 17th
18th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.6 18th
Total 0.1 0.9 2.9 6.2 11.0 15.5 17.7 17.2 13.1 8.0 4.7 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.2% 100.0% 3.9% 96.1% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.6% 97.2% 4.1% 93.1% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
12-8 1.9% 91.3% 2.1% 89.1% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 91.1%
11-9 4.7% 82.2% 1.3% 80.8% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.8 81.9%
10-10 8.0% 67.3% 1.4% 65.9% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.9 1.1 2.6 66.8%
9-11 13.1% 34.8% 0.7% 34.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 0.2 8.5 34.4%
8-12 17.2% 9.4% 0.2% 9.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.2 15.6 9.2%
7-13 17.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 17.6 0.7%
6-14 15.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 15.5 0.0%
5-15 11.0% 11.0
4-16 6.2% 6.2
3-17 2.9% 2.9
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 18.1% 0.4% 17.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 3.6 4.5 5.1 0.4 0.0 81.9 17.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%