Northwestern
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.0 #60
Expected Predictive Rating +5.0 #101
Pace 67.0 #239
Improvement -1.5 #267

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #52 B+ B+ A+ B- C
Defense #97 B+ C B- C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #129 1.38 #12 +5.6 #27
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #146 0.88 #41 +1.9 #84
Three Pointers 38% #247 0.95 #257 -2.8 #278
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #59 +4.7 #60
Freethrows 19.1 #92 73% #169 13.9 #102
Second Chance 30.7% #186 1.30 #3 0.40 #45
Turnovers 12.9% #12
Total Offense +6.4 #52

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #241 1.16 #176 +1.2 #133
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #74 0.68 #86 -0.5 #223
Three Pointers 39% #229 0.83 #14 +4.5 #32
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #44 +5.1 #45
Freethrows 16.3 #134 76% #325 12.4 #178
Second Chance 33.7% #288 0.92 #45 0.31 #162
Turnovers 18.4% #81
Total Defense +2.6 #97

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #200 -1.2% #79
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.4% #48 -9.0% #41
Possession Length 16.2 #82 19.1 #358
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #38 0.16 #133
Improvement -0.2 #201 -1.3 #262

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 6.7% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.3% 6.7% 2.5%
Average Seed 9.8 9.8 9.9
.500 or above 22.2% 28.4% 10.1%
.500 or above in Conference 4.2% 5.7% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.0% 6.6% 22.6%
First Four2.3% 2.9% 1.3%
First Round4.1% 5.3% 1.8%
Second Round1.6% 2.1% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rutgers (Away) - 66.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 13
Quad 23 - 46 - 16
Quad 33 - 18 - 18
Quad 46 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 307 Mercyhurst W 70 - 47 96%  +12  1 - 0 +11 -4 F A+ C+ +16 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 258 Boston University W 76 - 52 94%  +18  2 - 0 +15 +7 B- C- A+ +12 A A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 321 Cleveland St. W 110 - 63 97%  +24  3 - 0 +34 +23 A+ A+ A+ +9 B C+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 102 @DePaul W 81 - 79 55%  +3  4 - 0 +10 +18 A+ C A- -8 B F A-
 Fri, Nov 21 22 Virginia L 78 - 83 25%  +1  4 - 1 +11 +11 A+ B- A+ +0 A+ C B
 Sun, Nov 23 72 South Carolina W 79 - 77 54%  +3  5 - 1 +10 +17 A+ F C- -7 B+ F D
 Thu, Nov 27 54 Oklahoma St. L 81 - 86 47%  -2  5 - 2 +5 +9 C A+ B+ -4 A+ F C
 Wed, Dec 3 43 @Wisconsin L 73 - 85 29%  -16  5 - 3 0 - 1 +3 +8 D+ A+ C -6 D A D-
 Sat, Dec 6 30 Ohio St. L 82 - 86 41%  -0  5 - 4 0 - 2 +7 +11 B- A+ F -4 D+ B C
 Sat, Dec 13 342 Jackson St. W 93 - 53 98%  +18  6 - 4 +25 +10 B- C B- +14 A+ A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 16 188 Valparaiso W 86 - 70 90%  +12  7 - 4 +11 +14 A+ A- A+ -3 C- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 57 Butler L 58 - 61 49%  -4  7 - 5 +6 -8 F D A- +15 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 271 Howard W 80 - 60 95%  +5  8 - 5 +11 +14 A+ F A+ -1 C D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 3 76 Minnesota L 78 - 84 67%  +2  8 - 6 0 - 3 -1 +13 A+ D+ A+ -15 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 14 @Michigan St. L 66 - 76 13%  -0  8 - 7 0 - 4 +11 +10 C- B A+ +1 B F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 131 @Rutgers W 74 - 70 66% 
 Wed, Jan 14 9 Illinois L 72 - 80 22% 
 Sat, Jan 17 23 Nebraska L 72 - 76 37% 
 Wed, Jan 21 46 @USC L 75 - 80 32% 
 Sat, Jan 24 38 @UCLA L 70 - 77 25% 
 Thu, Jan 29 105 Penn St. W 80 - 72 76% 
 Sat, Jan 31 47 Washington W 76 - 75 55% 
 Wed, Feb 4 9 @Illinois L 69 - 83 10% 
 Sun, Feb 8 20 @Iowa L 66 - 76 17% 
 Wed, Feb 11 1 Michigan L 72 - 86 9% 
 Sat, Feb 14 23 @Nebraska L 69 - 79 19% 
 Wed, Feb 18 107 Maryland W 78 - 70 76% 
 Tue, Feb 24 25 @Indiana L 71 - 80 19% 
 Sat, Feb 28 65 Oregon W 76 - 73 62% 
 Wed, Mar 4 4 Purdue L 69 - 80 16% 
 Sat, Mar 7 76 @Minnesota L 68 - 70 44% 
Totals 14 - 17 6 - 14 +9 +6 B+ B+ A+ +3 B+ C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 1.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.6 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 3.2 1.7 0.1 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 3.6 3.9 0.6 0.0 8.5 12th
13th 0.3 3.6 6.7 2.0 0.1 12.6 13th
14th 0.2 3.9 8.7 3.9 0.4 17.1 14th
15th 0.2 2.9 8.0 5.0 0.6 0.0 16.6 15th
16th 0.1 1.5 6.9 5.1 0.9 0.0 14.6 16th
17th 0.1 1.1 4.3 4.0 0.9 0.0 10.4 17th
18th 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 5.4 18th
Total 0.1 1.0 3.1 8.0 14.6 18.2 18.7 15.7 10.5 6.0 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 94.3% 94.3% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.3%
11-9 1.0% 91.9% 1.4% 90.4% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 91.7%
10-10 2.8% 63.7% 63.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.0 63.7%
9-11 6.0% 29.1% 0.3% 28.9% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.1 4.3 28.9%
8-12 10.5% 4.4% 4.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 10.1 4.4%
7-13 15.7% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 15.7 0.3%
6-14 18.7% 18.7
5-15 18.2% 18.2
4-16 14.6% 14.6
3-17 8.0% 8.0
2-18 3.1% 3.1
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.3% 0.0% 5.3% 9.8 94.7 5.3%