Arkansas
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.0#37
Expected Predictive Rating+13.8#38
Pace71.7#74
Improvement+1.9#119

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#66
First Shot+5.0#62
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#208
Layup/Dunks+5.0#32
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#197
Freethrows+0.1#167
Improvement+1.5#109

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#16
First Shot+5.1#46
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#6
Layups/Dunks-0.5#188
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#30
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#170
Freethrows+2.9#24
Improvement+0.4#171
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.0% 90.1% 70.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.9% 90.0% 70.2%
Average Seed 9.5 9.1 10.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.2% 2.7% 14.4%
First Round74.5% 88.7% 63.2%
Second Round31.8% 38.9% 26.1%
Sweet Sixteen6.6% 6.8% 6.4%
Elite Eight2.2% 2.2% 2.1%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 26 - 10
Quad 24 - 310 - 13
Quad 34 - 014 - 13
Quad 47 - 021 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 97   Lipscomb W 76-60 84%     1 - 0 +18.2 -1.1 +18.4
  Nov 09, 2024 26   Baylor L 67-72 42%     1 - 1 +10.0 +5.0 +4.6
  Nov 13, 2024 101   Troy W 65-49 86%     2 - 1 +17.6 -3.9 +21.8
  Nov 18, 2024 291   Pacific W 91-72 97%     3 - 1 +8.7 +6.4 +0.9
  Nov 22, 2024 253   Arkansas Little Rock W 79-67 96%     4 - 1 +4.3 -1.1 +4.4
  Nov 25, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 109-35 99%     5 - 1 +55.2 +18.7 +30.7
  Nov 28, 2024 17   Illinois L 77-90 36%     5 - 2 +3.8 +8.5 -4.3
  Dec 03, 2024 173   @ Miami (FL) W 76-73 85%     6 - 2 +5.0 +2.1 +3.0
  Dec 07, 2024 182   Texas San Antonio W 75-60 94%     7 - 2 +10.9 +1.8 +9.7
  Dec 10, 2024 31   Michigan W 89-87 45%     8 - 2 +16.2 +15.5 +0.5
  Dec 14, 2024 344   Central Arkansas W 82-57 99%     9 - 2 +9.9 +8.2 +3.7
  Dec 21, 2024 329   N.C. A&T W 95-67 98%     10 - 2 +14.7 +11.0 +2.0
  Dec 30, 2024 184   Oakland W 92-62 94%     11 - 2 +25.9 +14.6 +10.8
  Jan 04, 2025 6   @ Tennessee L 52-76 17%     11 - 3 0 - 1 -1.0 -3.5 +0.7
  Jan 08, 2025 29   Mississippi L 66-73 56%     11 - 4 0 - 2 +4.6 +3.1 +0.9
  Jan 11, 2025 3   Florida L 63-71 23%     11 - 5 0 - 3 +12.8 +0.0 +12.6
  Jan 14, 2025 86   @ LSU L 74-78 65%     11 - 6 0 - 4 +5.1 +6.5 -1.3
  Jan 18, 2025 18   @ Missouri L 65-83 27%     11 - 7 0 - 5 +1.5 -2.7 +4.2
  Jan 22, 2025 33   Georgia W 68-65 58%     12 - 7 1 - 5 +14.0 +6.2 +8.0
  Jan 25, 2025 38   Oklahoma L 62-65 61%     12 - 8 1 - 6 +7.2 -2.6 +9.5
  Feb 01, 2025 14   @ Kentucky W 89-79 24%     13 - 8 2 - 6 +30.4 +19.4 +10.6
  Feb 05, 2025 42   @ Texas W 78-70 44%     14 - 8 3 - 6 +22.6 +8.1 +14.0
  Feb 08, 2025 5   Alabama L 81-85 30%     14 - 9 3 - 7 +14.4 +10.2 +4.4
  Feb 12, 2025 86   LSU W 70-58 81%     15 - 9 4 - 7 +15.6 +6.5 +10.2
  Feb 15, 2025 22   @ Texas A&M L 61-69 28%     15 - 10 4 - 8 +11.1 +3.5 +7.0
  Feb 19, 2025 2   @ Auburn L 60-67 10%     15 - 11 4 - 9 +20.0 -1.4 +21.4
  Feb 22, 2025 18   Missouri W 92-85 46%     16 - 11 5 - 9 +21.0 +12.2 +8.1
  Feb 26, 2025 42   Texas W 86-81 OT 65%     17 - 11 6 - 9 +14.1 +8.6 +5.0
  Mar 01, 2025 71   @ South Carolina L 53-72 59%     17 - 12 6 - 10 -8.2 -12.4 +3.9
  Mar 04, 2025 51   @ Vanderbilt W 90-77 47%     18 - 12 7 - 10 +26.7 +12.0 +13.2
  Mar 08, 2025 30   Mississippi St. W 93-92 56%     19 - 12 8 - 10 +12.5 +23.9 -11.4
  Mar 12, 2025 71   South Carolina W 72-68 68%     20 - 12 +12.1 +8.1 +4.1
  Mar 13, 2025 29   Mississippi L 73-74 45%    
Projected Record 20 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 100.0% 79.0% 0.2% 78.8% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 8.6 26.8 29.7 12.4 0.1 21.0 78.9%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 79.0% 0.2% 78.8% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 8.6 26.8 29.7 12.4 0.1 21.0 78.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 5.8 4.5 31.8 50.0 9.1 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4% 98.6% 7.8 2.9 3.6 21.0 52.2 18.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.2% 99.0% 8.6 0.5 9.0 33.8 46.2 9.0 0.5
Lose Out 55.8% 70.2% 10.0 2.0 15.7 33.3 19.0 0.2