Arkansas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.5 #19
Expected Predictive Rating +18.8 #15
Pace 76.6 #33
Improvement +2.8 #51

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #9 A- A+ A+ A C-
Defense #52 A- D C B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #184 1.37 #17 +3.9 #57
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #130 0.71 #228 +0.5 #158
Three Pointers 39% #222 1.17 #21 +2.0 #117
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #34 +6.4 #34
Freethrows 21.0 #29 75% #93 15.8 #23
Second Chance 36.4% #39 1.24 #17 0.45 #21
Turnovers 12.8% #9
Total Offense +11.3 #9

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #216 1.10 #107 +1.8 #114
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #124 0.72 #140 -0.3 #207
Three Pointers 41% #202 0.81 #8 +4.4 #33
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #35 +5.9 #34
Freethrows 14.9 #62 66% #17 9.9 #334
Second Chance 28.6% #105 1.30 #360 0.37 #292
Turnovers 17.0% #155
Total Defense +5.2 #52

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #231 -0.5% #121
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 13.3% #21 -11.1% #31
Possession Length 14.7 #12 18.1 #307
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.34 #2 0.16 #131
Improvement +4.6 #4 -1.8 #292

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.3% 2.1% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 7.0% 10.3% 3.8%
Top 4 Seed 43.0% 54.2% 32.3%
Top 6 Seed 77.0% 86.0% 68.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.0% 99.0% 95.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.7% 98.8% 94.7%
Average Seed 5.0 4.5 5.5
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 91.4% 96.5% 86.5%
Conference Champion 17.6% 25.4% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four1.8% 0.7% 2.8%
First Round96.2% 98.6% 93.9%
Second Round76.7% 81.9% 71.7%
Sweet Sixteen38.5% 44.1% 33.1%
Elite Eight14.2% 16.9% 11.6%
Final Four5.2% 6.5% 4.0%
Championship Game1.8% 2.3% 1.3%
National Champion0.6% 0.9% 0.4%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 48.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 9
Quad 25 - 114 - 10
Quad 32 - 016 - 10
Quad 47 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 256 Southern W 109 - 77 98%  +21  1 - 0 +23 +18 C B A+ +1 B F D
 Sat, Nov 8 14 @Michigan St. L 66 - 69 33%  -2  1 - 1 +18 +9 C+ A+ F +9 A+ C- B+
 Tue, Nov 11 261 Central Arkansas W 93 - 56 98%  +16  2 - 1 +28 +11 A+ D A+ +16 A+ C F
 Fri, Nov 14 229 Samford W 79 - 75 97%  +8  3 - 1 -3 -1 C F B- -2 C C- D
 Tue, Nov 18 152 Winthrop W 84 - 83 95%  +1  4 - 1 -2 +5 C- A A -7 D F C
 Fri, Nov 21 342 Jackson St. W 115 - 61 99%  +30  5 - 1 +39 +26 A+ A- A+ +9 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 6 Duke L 71 - 80 33%  -1  5 - 2 +12 +8 B A- B +4 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 15 Louisville W 89 - 80 57%  +10  6 - 2 +24 +15 C- A+ A+ +8 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 157 Fresno St. W 82 - 58 96%  +15  7 - 2 +21 +6 B+ C A+ +14 A+ B+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 17 Texas Tech W 93 - 86 49%  -2  8 - 2 +24 +31 A+ A+ A+ -7 C F F
 Tue, Dec 16 207 Queens W 108 - 80 97%  +20  9 - 2 +22 +14 A+ A+ F +5 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 11 Houston L 85 - 94 39%  -10  9 - 3 +10 +19 A+ A+ A+ -8 F F C
 Mon, Dec 29 204 James Madison W 103 - 74 97%  +17  10 - 3 +24 +25 A+ A+ A+ -2 D D A
 Sat, Jan 3 16 Tennessee W 86 - 75 58%  +1  11 - 3 1 - 0 +26 +16 B- A+ C +9 A A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 71 @Mississippi W 94 - 87 70%  +7  12 - 3 2 - 0 +18 +24 A+ A+ A -6 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 33 @Auburn L 85 - 86 49% 
 Wed, Jan 14 72 South Carolina W 84 - 73 86% 
 Sat, Jan 17 24 @Georgia L 91 - 93 42% 
 Tue, Jan 20 7 Vanderbilt L 85 - 86 46% 
 Sat, Jan 24 42 LSU W 87 - 79 76% 
 Tue, Jan 27 48 @Oklahoma W 84 - 81 60% 
 Sat, Jan 31 27 Kentucky W 84 - 79 66% 
 Sat, Feb 7 55 @Mississippi St. W 83 - 79 64% 
 Tue, Feb 10 42 @LSU W 84 - 82 56% 
 Sat, Feb 14 33 Auburn W 88 - 82 70% 
 Tue, Feb 17 13 @Alabama L 91 - 96 33% 
 Sat, Feb 21 51 Missouri W 88 - 79 79% 
 Wed, Feb 25 40 Texas A&M W 91 - 84 74% 
 Sat, Feb 28 12 @Florida L 80 - 85 33% 
 Wed, Mar 4 45 Texas W 89 - 81 77% 
 Sat, Mar 7 51 @Missouri W 85 - 82 61% 
Totals 22 - 9 12 - 6 +16 +11 A- A+ A+ +5 A- D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.3 5.4 2.9 0.9 0.1 17.6 1st
2nd 0.4 3.2 7.1 5.3 1.4 0.2 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 6.9 5.0 0.9 0.1 15.5 3rd
4th 1.1 5.9 5.0 1.0 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.2 3.5 5.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.4 1.8 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 2.6 0.2 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.8 2.8 0.7 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 1.3 0.1 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.2 2.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 0.7 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.5 4.8 8.3 12.4 15.9 16.8 15.7 11.5 6.8 3.1 0.9 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 94.1% 2.9    2.5 0.4 0.0
15-3 79.0% 5.4    3.6 1.6 0.2
14-4 46.6% 5.3    2.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.1% 2.5    0.5 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.6% 17.6 9.7 5.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 1.9 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.1% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 2.4 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.8% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 2.9 0.4 1.8 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 11.5% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 3.4 0.1 1.5 4.6 4.1 1.2 0.1 100.0%
13-5 15.7% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 4.1 0.1 0.5 3.8 6.5 3.9 0.9 0.1 100.0%
12-6 16.8% 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 4.7 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.1 5.8 2.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
11-7 15.9% 99.9% 6.7% 93.2% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.3 5.5 4.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 12.4% 99.3% 3.9% 95.4% 6.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.4 4.1 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.3%
9-9 8.3% 98.3% 2.8% 95.4% 7.3 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.5 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 98.2%
8-10 4.8% 87.8% 1.7% 86.1% 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.6 87.6%
7-11 2.5% 62.0% 1.6% 60.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.9 61.4%
6-12 0.9% 13.4% 0.6% 12.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 12.9%
5-13 0.4% 1.4% 1.4% 11.0 0.0 0.4 1.4%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.0% 9.7% 87.3% 5.0 3.0 96.7%