Arkansas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.5 #22
Expected Predictive Rating +17.5 #20
Pace 75.4 #33
Improvement +0.2 #178

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #7 A- A- A B- C
Defense #59 B+ D C+ B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #85 1.39 #6 +7.0 #11
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #157 0.79 #120 +0.7 #140
Three Pointers 36% #275 1.17 #20 +0.5 #159
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #15 +8.2 #13
Freethrows 0.33 #103 74% #110 0.24 #89
Second Chance 34.8% #69 1.25 #9 0.44 #18
Turnovers 12.0% #3
Total Offense +11.7 #7

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #211 1.09 #96 +1.6 #118
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #103 0.68 #63 +0.1 #182
Three Pointers 40% #225 0.84 #13 +4.1 #35
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #34 +5.8 #34
Freethrows 0.24 #34 69% #26 0.17 #24
Second Chance 28.2% #86 1.33 #365 0.38 #323
Turnovers 17.7% #117
Total Defense +4.8 #59

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #176 -0.6% #117
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.7% #11 -10.9% #27
Possession Length 14.7 #10 18.4 #325
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.33 #2 0.14 #86
Improvement +2.0 #77 -1.9 #284

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.5% 2.0% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 21.9% 26.3% 11.8%
Top 6 Seed 64.2% 69.8% 51.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.4% 99.1% 96.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.3% 99.1% 96.5%
Average Seed 5.9 5.6 6.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 98.9% 92.6%
Conference Champion 12.9% 16.5% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.2% 0.6% 2.6%
First Round97.8% 98.8% 95.6%
Second Round73.4% 76.1% 67.1%
Sweet Sixteen31.2% 33.5% 25.9%
Elite Eight11.4% 12.2% 9.6%
Final Four4.3% 4.7% 3.3%
Championship Game1.6% 1.7% 1.2%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.3%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Away) - 69.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 28 - 10
Quad 25 - 113 - 11
Quad 33 - 017 - 11
Quad 46 - 023 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 266 Southern W 109 - 77 98% +21  1 - 0 +23 +18 C+ B A+ +0 B- D- D
 Sat, Nov 8 10 @Michigan St. L 66 - 69 26% -2  1 - 1 +20 +9 C A+ D+ +11 A+ C B
 Tue, Nov 11 219 Central Arkansas W 93 - 56 97% +16  2 - 1 +31 +12 A- C- A+ +17 A+ D+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 228 Samford W 79 - 75 97% +8  3 - 1 -3 -2 C F+ C+ -1 C C- D+
 Tue, Nov 18 123 Winthrop W 84 - 83 94% +1  4 - 1 +0 +8 C A+ A- -8 C- F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 337 Jackson St. W 115 - 61 99% +30  5 - 1 +40 +26 A+ A- A+ +9 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 3 Duke L 71 - 80 25% -1  5 - 2 +15 +10 B+ A- B+ +5 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 16 Louisville W 89 - 80 56% +10  6 - 2 +24 +16 D+ A+ A +8 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 146 Fresno St. W 82 - 58 95% +15  7 - 2 +22 +8 A- C- A+ +13 A+ C+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 17 Texas Tech W 93 - 86 45% -2  8 - 2 +25 +31 A+ A+ A+ -6 B- F F+
 Tue, Dec 16 208 Queens W 108 - 80 97% +20  9 - 2 +22 +15 A A+ D- +4 A- D- A+
 Sat, Dec 20 6 Houston L 85 - 94 31% -10  9 - 3 +13 +19 A+ A+ A+ -6 D F+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 205 James Madison W 103 - 74 97% +17  10 - 3 +23 +26 A+ A+ B+ -2 C- D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 3 18 Tennessee W 86 - 75 57% +1  11 - 3 1 - 0 +26 +15 B- A+ C- +9 A- B+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 59 @Mississippi W 94 - 87 66% +7  12 - 3 2 - 0 +19 +25 A+ A- B+ -6 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 28 @Auburn L 73 - 95 42% -15  12 - 4 2 - 1 -3 +5 C C- A- -8 D- F C
 Wed, Jan 14 91 South Carolina W 108 - 74 89% +18  13 - 4 3 - 1 +37 +32 A+ A+ A+ +4 B C A+
 Sat, Jan 17 34 @Georgia L 76 - 90 48% -10  13 - 5 3 - 2 +3 -2 D+ A+ D +7 B- C- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 12 Vanderbilt W 93 - 68 53% +15  14 - 5 4 - 2 +41 +31 A+ A+ A+ +11 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 24 49 LSU W 85 - 81 78% -1  15 - 5 5 - 2 +12 +16 A+ C A- -4 A+ F C-
 Tue, Jan 27 55 @Oklahoma W 83 - 79 64% -2  16 - 5 6 - 2 +17 +16 B A A+ +1 B- C- A-
 Sat, Jan 31 26 Kentucky L 77 - 85 64% -5  16 - 6 6 - 3 +5 +14 A+ C- A+ -10 F+ B- D-
 Sat, Feb 7 73 @Mississippi St. W 84 - 78 70%
 Tue, Feb 10 49 @LSU W 84 - 82 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 28 Auburn W 87 - 83 65%
 Tue, Feb 17 20 @Alabama L 91 - 95 37%
 Wed, Feb 18 20 @Alabama L 91 - 95 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 54 Missouri W 87 - 78 81%
 Wed, Feb 25 27 Texas A&M W 89 - 85 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 5 @Florida L 80 - 88 22%
 Wed, Mar 4 31 Texas W 87 - 82 67%
 Sat, Mar 7 54 @Missouri W 84 - 81 62%
Totals 22 - 10 12 - 7 +16 +12 A- A- A +5 B+ D C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.4 5.8 2.9 0.5 12.9 1st
2nd 0.1 3.2 9.1 2.9 0.1 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 9.4 4.8 0.3 15.8 3rd
4th 0.2 5.3 8.3 0.7 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 9.1 2.1 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.2 4.3 5.5 0.2 10.1 6th
7th 1.0 4.9 1.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.1 2.8 2.6 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.6 2.4 0.4 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.4 7.2 13.8 22.2 23.4 18.0 9.0 3.0 0.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-3 96.2% 2.9    2.1 0.8 0.0
14-4 65.1% 5.8    2.0 2.8 0.9 0.1
13-5 19.0% 3.4    0.2 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.1
12-6 1.1% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.9% 12.9 4.8 4.7 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.5% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 2.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.0% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 3.3 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.0% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 4.0 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.7 2.0 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-5 18.0% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 4.7 0.2 1.8 5.4 6.4 3.5 0.7 0.0 100.0%
12-6 23.4% 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 5.5 0.0 0.7 3.1 7.8 7.2 3.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 22.2% 99.8% 5.5% 94.3% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.8 7.2 6.9 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 99.8%
10-8 13.8% 98.9% 3.3% 95.5% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 4.9 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.8%
9-9 7.2% 94.1% 2.2% 91.8% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.4 93.9%
8-10 2.4% 75.3% 1.6% 73.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 74.8%
7-11 0.5% 42.7% 42.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 42.7%
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.4% 8.1% 90.3% 5.9 1.6 98.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 40.6 50.0 9.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.5 18.5 29.6 37.0 14.8