Auburn
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.9 #33
Expected Predictive Rating +13.2 #39
Pace 69.6 #176
Improvement -0.4 #204

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #12 A A- B+ A+ C+
Defense #85 C+ C- B B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #179 1.30 #51 +2.7 #98
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #229 0.89 #33 +0.3 #163
Three Pointers 44% #132 1.13 #43 +3.9 #58
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #27 +6.9 #26
Freethrows 22.8 #8 76% #77 17.3 #4
Second Chance 39.7% #10 1.06 #173 0.42 #31
Turnovers 14.1% #41
Total Offense +10.7 #12

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #218 1.07 #82 +2.3 #103
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #134 0.90 #339 -2.0 #318
Three Pointers 41% #183 0.95 #114 +1.2 #136
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #131 +1.5 #131
Freethrows 13.9 #36 73% #216 10.2 #326
Second Chance 30.9% #189 1.10 #253 0.34 #229
Turnovers 18.7% #69
Total Defense +3.3 #85

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #146 -0.4% #129
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.8% #23 -2.5% #135
Possession Length 16.1 #71 18.3 #321
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #31 0.16 #120
Improvement +0.5 #153 -0.9 #240

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.9% 8.9% 2.7%
Top 6 Seed 20.8% 28.8% 12.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.2% 71.9% 48.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59.1% 70.8% 47.0%
Average Seed 7.7 7.3 8.2
.500 or above 77.5% 87.3% 67.2%
.500 or above in Conference 44.0% 57.1% 30.2%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 2.8% 9.6%
First Four10.4% 9.5% 11.4%
First Round55.7% 67.9% 42.9%
Second Round34.4% 43.1% 25.4%
Sweet Sixteen12.0% 15.7% 8.2%
Elite Eight4.0% 5.2% 2.7%
Final Four1.2% 1.6% 0.7%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Arkansas (Home) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 103 - 10
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 12
Quad 25 - 211 - 15
Quad 32 - 012 - 15
Quad 46 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 278 Bethune-Cookman W 95 - 90 OT 98%  +1  1 - 0 -5 +5 D- B B -10 F B- C+
 Thu, Nov 6 237 Merrimack W 95 - 57 96%  +18  2 - 0 +31 +24 B A+ A+ +9 A+ C C+
 Tue, Nov 11 223 Wofford W 93 - 62 96%  +19  3 - 0 +25 +14 A- A+ C +10 B A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 11 Houston L 72 - 73 30%  -3  3 - 1 +18 +13 C B A+ +5 C+ A B
 Wed, Nov 19 342 Jackson St. W 112 - 66 99%  +26  4 - 1 +31 +24 A+ D+ A +4 C D A+
 Mon, Nov 24 65 Oregon W 84 - 73 69%  +3  5 - 1 +20 +15 B- A+ A+ +5 A F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 1 Michigan L 72 - 102 12%  -21  5 - 2 -3 +13 A- C+ A+ -16 A- F C-
 Wed, Nov 26 21 St. John's W 85 - 74 41%  +2  6 - 2 +27 +25 A+ A+ A +3 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 34 North Carolina St. W 83 - 73 62%  +5  7 - 2 +21 +14 A+ C+ F +7 A A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 2 @Arizona L 68 - 97 12%  -15  7 - 3 -2 +5 D- A- D+ -6 F C B-
 Sat, Dec 13 273 Chattanooga W 92 - 78 96%  +7  8 - 3 +8 +15 A+ A F -8 D+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 20 4 Purdue L 60 - 88 20%  -13  8 - 4 -5 +0 C+ F C+ -8 D F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 207 Queens W 106 - 65 95%  +30  9 - 4 +35 +20 A+ B C+ +14 A+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 3 24 @Georgia L 100 - 104 OT 33%  -1  9 - 5 0 - 1 +15 +20 A+ B- A -5 F A C
 Tue, Jan 6 40 Texas A&M L 88 - 90 66%  +0  9 - 6 0 - 2 +8 +15 C A+ B+ -7 F F A
 Sat, Jan 10 19 Arkansas W 86 - 85 51% 
 Wed, Jan 14 51 @Missouri W 81 - 80 52% 
 Sat, Jan 17 72 South Carolina W 80 - 71 80% 
 Tue, Jan 20 71 @Mississippi W 77 - 74 60% 
 Sat, Jan 24 12 @Florida L 76 - 83 25% 
 Wed, Jan 28 45 Texas W 85 - 79 71% 
 Sat, Jan 31 16 @Tennessee L 73 - 80 27% 
 Sat, Feb 7 13 Alabama L 89 - 90 45% 
 Tue, Feb 10 7 Vanderbilt L 81 - 84 38% 
 Sat, Feb 14 19 @Arkansas L 82 - 88 30% 
 Wed, Feb 18 55 @Mississippi St. W 79 - 78 55% 
 Sat, Feb 21 27 Kentucky W 80 - 78 57% 
 Tue, Feb 24 48 @Oklahoma W 80 - 79 50% 
 Sat, Feb 28 71 Mississippi W 80 - 71 79% 
 Tue, Mar 3 42 LSU W 82 - 77 68% 
 Sat, Mar 7 13 @Alabama L 86 - 93 25% 
Totals 17 - 14 8 - 10 +14 +11 A A- B+ +3 C+ C- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.3 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 3.6 3rd
4th 0.8 2.8 1.3 0.1 5.0 4th
5th 0.2 3.1 2.6 0.4 6.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 5.0 1.1 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.8 3.1 0.2 8.6 7th
8th 0.1 3.0 5.4 0.9 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 5.6 2.7 0.1 9.5 9th
10th 0.3 3.9 5.1 0.4 9.8 10th
11th 0.0 1.6 5.4 1.8 0.0 8.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.8 3.4 0.3 8.1 12th
13th 0.1 1.9 3.6 1.0 0.0 6.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.7 0.1 5.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.7 0.3 4.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.9 7.3 11.3 15.1 16.4 15.3 13.0 8.0 4.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 48.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 19.1% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 7.4% 92.6% 2.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.7% 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 3.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.2% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.6% 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 8.0% 99.7% 7.5% 92.2% 5.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
10-8 13.0% 99.4% 4.4% 95.0% 6.7 0.0 0.5 1.6 3.3 4.1 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.4%
9-9 15.3% 94.4% 2.4% 91.9% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.4 3.6 3.6 2.5 0.8 0.0 0.9 94.2%
8-10 16.4% 74.5% 1.5% 73.0% 10.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.8 4.9 0.1 4.2 74.1%
7-11 15.1% 29.6% 1.1% 28.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.9 0.4 10.6 28.9%
6-12 11.3% 5.2% 0.4% 4.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 10.7 4.8%
5-13 7.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.1%
4-14 3.9% 3.9
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 60.2% 2.8% 57.4% 7.7 39.8 59.1%