Auburn
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+23.4#1
Expected Predictive Rating+27.4#1
Pace70.9#122
Improvement+2.0#73

Offense
Total Offense+15.7#1
First Shot+12.3#1
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#23
Layup/Dunks+6.3#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#100
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#46
Freethrows+0.2#168
Improvement+0.4#144

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#15
First Shot+6.9#17
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#103
Layups/Dunks+2.4#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#18
Freethrows+0.6#140
Improvement+1.6#65
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 39.7% 39.7% 23.9%
#1 Seed 81.4% 81.5% 57.7%
Top 2 Seed 97.5% 97.5% 87.3%
Top 4 Seed 99.8% 99.8% 98.6%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.2 1.2 1.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.3% 94.4%
Conference Champion 59.5% 59.5% 36.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.3% 99.3% 95.8%
Sweet Sixteen83.6% 83.6% 77.5%
Elite Eight64.7% 64.7% 56.3%
Final Four46.4% 46.4% 40.8%
Championship Game31.5% 31.5% 31.0%
National Champion20.6% 20.6% 11.3%

Next Game: Monmouth (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a11 - 411 - 4
Quad 1b7 - 118 - 5
Quad 24 - 022 - 5
Quad 31 - 023 - 5
Quad 45 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 220   Vermont W 94-43 99%     1 - 0 +44.7 +21.6 +23.3
  Nov 09, 2024 5   Houston W 74-69 64%     2 - 0 +24.7 +21.3 +4.0
  Nov 13, 2024 116   Kent St. W 79-56 98%     3 - 0 +22.9 +17.9 +7.5
  Nov 18, 2024 197   North Alabama W 102-69 99%     4 - 0 +28.2 +20.4 +6.0
  Nov 25, 2024 6   Iowa St. W 83-81 65%     5 - 0 +21.6 +17.2 +4.3
  Nov 26, 2024 22   North Carolina W 85-72 80%     6 - 0 +27.6 +13.5 +13.4
  Nov 27, 2024 44   Memphis W 90-76 87%     7 - 0 +25.2 +25.6 +0.3
  Dec 04, 2024 2   @ Duke L 78-84 45%     7 - 1 +18.7 +27.4 -9.3
  Dec 08, 2024 216   Richmond W 98-54 99%     8 - 1 +38.1 +17.2 +18.8
  Dec 14, 2024 29   Ohio St. W 91-53 83%     9 - 1 +51.3 +30.4 +23.6
  Dec 17, 2024 272   Georgia St. W 100-59 99%     10 - 1 +32.1 +17.4 +12.2
  Dec 21, 2024 27   Purdue W 87-69 82%     11 - 1 +31.9 +21.5 +11.1
  Dec 30, 2024 261   Monmouth W 94-62 99.9%   
  Jan 04, 2025 54   Missouri W 89-72 94%    
  Jan 07, 2025 33   @ Texas W 80-72 77%    
  Jan 11, 2025 62   @ South Carolina W 81-69 87%    
  Jan 14, 2025 24   Mississippi St. W 84-72 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 36   @ Georgia W 81-73 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 3   Tennessee W 77-71 72%    
  Jan 29, 2025 56   @ LSU W 85-74 84%    
  Feb 01, 2025 28   @ Mississippi W 81-74 74%    
  Feb 04, 2025 35   Oklahoma W 86-72 90%    
  Feb 08, 2025 7   Florida W 86-79 75%    
  Feb 11, 2025 50   @ Vanderbilt W 87-77 82%    
  Feb 15, 2025 9   @ Alabama W 89-86 59%    
  Feb 19, 2025 31   Arkansas W 87-73 89%    
  Feb 22, 2025 36   Georgia W 84-70 90%    
  Feb 26, 2025 28   Mississippi W 84-71 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 16   @ Kentucky W 88-83 68%    
  Mar 04, 2025 25   @ Texas A&M W 77-71 72%    
  Mar 08, 2025 9   Alabama W 92-83 78%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.3 8.5 15.5 16.9 11.7 4.3 59.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.8 7.5 3.7 0.9 0.0 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.4 3.6 1.3 0.1 9.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.7 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.8 8.1 12.4 17.4 19.4 17.7 11.7 4.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.3    4.3
17-1 99.7% 11.7    11.3 0.4
16-2 95.1% 16.9    14.7 2.2 0.1
15-3 80.1% 15.5    10.3 4.7 0.5 0.0
14-4 49.2% 8.5    3.7 3.6 1.2 0.2
13-5 18.6% 2.3    0.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 59.5% 59.5 44.7 11.7 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.3% 100.0% 57.8% 42.2% 1.0 4.1 0.1 100.0%
17-1 11.7% 100.0% 52.5% 47.5% 1.0 11.3 0.5 100.0%
16-2 17.7% 100.0% 47.4% 52.6% 1.1 16.7 1.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 19.4% 100.0% 41.6% 58.4% 1.1 17.7 1.7 100.0%
14-4 17.4% 100.0% 36.5% 63.5% 1.1 14.8 2.5 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.4% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 1.3 9.2 3.1 0.1 100.0%
12-6 8.1% 100.0% 25.1% 74.9% 1.4 4.9 3.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 4.8% 100.0% 17.8% 82.2% 1.7 2.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
10-8 2.4% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 2.0 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 1.2% 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 2.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.5% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 3.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.2% 100.0% 2.6% 97.4% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
6-12 0.0% 100.0% 4.2% 95.8% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 1.2 81.4 16.0 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 100.0% 1.0 96.8 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 1.0 98.6 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 1.0 95.6 4.4