Purdue
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +22.7 #4
Expected Predictive Rating +26.0 #9
Pace 64.4 #303
Improvement +1.2 #116

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #1 A+ A+ A C D
Defense #15 A+ A C A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #299 1.50 #2 +3.4 #75
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #76 0.89 #37 +3.9 #28
Three Pointers 40% #208 1.19 #14 +2.9 #97
1st FG Attempt 1.22 #3 +10.2 #3
Freethrows 15.3 #289 79% #21 12.1 #208
Second Chance 40.9% #7 1.15 #71 0.47 #10
Turnovers 13.2% #20
Total Offense +13.9 #1

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 26% #361 1.11 #124 +8.0 #8
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #13 0.72 #136 -2.9 #347
Three Pointers 45% #75 0.82 #13 +2.4 #99
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #20 +7.4 #20
Freethrows 9.6 #2 70% #95 6.7 #365
Second Chance 23.7% #12 0.97 #91 0.23 #18
Turnovers 16.6% #181
Total Defense +8.8 #15

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #301 -4.1% #5
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 22.5% #1 -10.8% #32
Possession Length 17.1 #159 18.9 #355
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #195 0.08 #8
Improvement -0.2 #198 +1.4 #86

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 11.2% 11.3% 5.6%
#1 Seed 47.0% 47.4% 28.1%
Top 2 Seed 82.7% 83.0% 68.6%
Top 4 Seed 98.8% 98.8% 95.1%
Top 6 Seed 99.9% 99.9% 99.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.8 1.8 2.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 99.9% 97.9%
Conference Champion 35.5% 35.9% 14.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.6% 98.7% 97.4%
Sweet Sixteen78.5% 78.6% 73.5%
Elite Eight53.7% 53.9% 46.7%
Final Four31.8% 31.9% 26.5%
Championship Game17.5% 17.6% 13.3%
National Champion9.2% 9.2% 6.7%

Next Game: Penn St. (Home) - 97.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 47 - 4
Quad 1b6 - 113 - 5
Quad 27 - 020 - 5
Quad 36 - 025 - 5
Quad 42 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 263 Evansville W 82 - 51 99%  +18  1 - 0 +22 +19 A+ B A+ +7 A+ F D-
 Fri, Nov 7 124 Oakland W 87 - 77 98%  +3  2 - 0 +9 +9 B D A+ +0 B+ C- C
 Thu, Nov 13 13 @Alabama W 87 - 80 55%  +2  3 - 0 +28 +22 A+ A+ B- +6 A- A+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 64 Akron W 97 - 79 93%  +12  4 - 0 +24 +20 A A+ C +3 A+ C- C-
 Thu, Nov 20 78 Memphis W 80 - 71 91%  +1  5 - 0 +17 +17 A+ C- A+ +0 A C+ D+
 Fri, Nov 21 17 Texas Tech W 86 - 56 72%  +17  6 - 0 +47 +24 A+ A C+ +24 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 309 Eastern Illinois W 109 - 62 100%  +25  7 - 0 +35 +31 A+ A+ A- +3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 131 @Rutgers W 81 - 65 94%  +12  8 - 0 1 - 0 +21 +17 B A- A+ +5 F A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 3 Iowa St. L 58 - 81 60%  -9  8 - 1 -3 +1 D A- B -5 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 76 Minnesota W 85 - 57 94%  +15  9 - 1 2 - 0 +33 +21 A+ A+ A+ +13 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 110 Marquette W 79 - 59 97%  +16  10 - 1 +21 +14 A+ A+ D+ +8 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 33 Auburn W 88 - 60 80%  +13  11 - 1 +42 +25 A+ A+ B +19 A+ A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 138 Kent St. W 101 - 60 98%  +24  12 - 1 +39 +18 A+ C A+ +18 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 43 @Wisconsin W 89 - 73 77%  +8  13 - 1 3 - 0 +31 +22 B A+ A+ +9 A+ D+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 47 Washington W 81 - 73 91%  +14  14 - 1 4 - 0 +16 +11 A+ A+ F +5 C A+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 105 Penn St. W 86 - 65 98% 
 Wed, Jan 14 20 Iowa W 75 - 66 81% 
 Sat, Jan 17 46 @USC W 81 - 72 79% 
 Tue, Jan 20 38 @UCLA W 76 - 69 74% 
 Sat, Jan 24 9 Illinois W 78 - 73 69% 
 Tue, Jan 27 25 @Indiana W 77 - 73 65% 
 Sun, Feb 1 107 @Maryland W 81 - 66 92% 
 Sat, Feb 7 65 Oregon W 83 - 66 94% 
 Tue, Feb 10 23 @Nebraska W 75 - 71 64% 
 Sat, Feb 14 20 @Iowa W 72 - 69 62% 
 Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan L 78 - 79 48% 
 Fri, Feb 20 25 Indiana W 80 - 70 83% 
 Thu, Feb 26 14 Michigan St. W 74 - 66 76% 
 Sun, Mar 1 30 @Ohio St. W 78 - 73 69% 
 Wed, Mar 4 60 @Northwestern W 80 - 69 84% 
 Sat, Mar 7 43 Wisconsin W 83 - 69 90% 
Totals 26 - 5 16 - 4 +23 +14 A+ A+ A +9 A+ A C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.7 8.5 12.2 9.2 2.6 35.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 6.0 12.4 10.8 4.2 0.4 34.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.6 6.6 3.8 0.7 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.2 5.0 9.2 14.7 19.1 19.9 16.5 9.5 2.6 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.6    2.6
19-1 96.1% 9.2    7.4 1.7
18-2 74.3% 12.2    7.3 4.7 0.2
17-3 42.5% 8.5    3.2 4.3 0.9 0.0
16-4 14.3% 2.7    0.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 35.5% 35.5 21.1 12.0 2.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.6% 100.0% 37.9% 62.1% 1.1 2.3 0.3 100.0%
19-1 9.5% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 1.2 7.8 1.8 0.0 100.0%
18-2 16.5% 100.0% 29.3% 70.7% 1.3 11.8 4.5 0.1 100.0%
17-3 19.9% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 1.5 11.7 7.6 0.7 0.0 100.0%
16-4 19.1% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 1.7 7.9 9.3 1.8 0.1 100.0%
15-5 14.7% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 2.0 4.0 7.1 3.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.2% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 2.5 1.2 3.6 3.5 0.9 0.1 100.0%
13-7 5.0% 100.0% 8.2% 91.8% 3.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 2.2% 100.0% 6.5% 93.5% 3.5 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.8% 100.0% 5.0% 95.0% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.3% 100.0% 3.5% 96.5% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 22.5% 77.5% 1.8 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.1 93.9 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 90.1 9.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 1.2 81.0 19.0