Purdue
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.1#14
Expected Predictive Rating+17.4#20
Pace64.7#277
Improvement+4.9#20

Offense
Total Offense+11.4#8
First Shot+9.6#10
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#82
Layup/Dunks+0.4#164
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#81
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#41
Freethrows+2.5#45
Improvement+2.0#83

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#44
First Shot+5.3#39
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#138
Layups/Dunks+3.4#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#256
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#222
Freethrows+3.1#18
Improvement+2.9#40
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
#1 Seed 5.1% 5.9% 2.0%
Top 2 Seed 17.5% 19.9% 9.3%
Top 4 Seed 57.1% 61.4% 42.2%
Top 6 Seed 85.8% 88.9% 75.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.4% 99.7% 98.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.3% 99.7% 98.2%
Average Seed 4.3 4.1 5.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 99.2% 95.4%
Conference Champion 18.7% 21.5% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.4% 1.6%
First Round99.1% 99.6% 97.7%
Second Round84.8% 86.5% 78.9%
Sweet Sixteen48.5% 50.2% 42.9%
Elite Eight22.6% 23.8% 18.7%
Final Four9.9% 10.5% 8.0%
Championship Game4.3% 4.7% 2.7%
National Champion1.6% 1.8% 1.1%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 77.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 9
Quad 28 - 117 - 10
Quad 33 - 020 - 10
Quad 43 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 163   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 90-73 96%     1 - 0 +13.9 +10.0 +3.2
  Nov 08, 2024 216   Northern Kentucky W 72-50 97%     2 - 0 +15.9 +8.0 +10.7
  Nov 11, 2024 87   Yale W 92-84 89%     3 - 0 +11.4 +16.1 -5.0
  Nov 15, 2024 7   Alabama W 87-78 50%     4 - 0 +26.0 +22.4 +4.0
  Nov 19, 2024 16   @ Marquette L 58-76 41%     4 - 1 +1.6 -3.4 +4.4
  Nov 23, 2024 197   Marshall W 80-45 97%     5 - 1 +30.3 +8.7 +23.2
  Nov 28, 2024 82   North Carolina St. W 71-61 83%     6 - 1 +16.8 +14.2 +4.4
  Nov 29, 2024 25   Mississippi W 80-78 60%     7 - 1 +16.4 +23.5 -6.9
  Dec 05, 2024 53   @ Penn St. L 70-81 65%     7 - 2 0 - 1 +2.3 +1.6 +0.9
  Dec 08, 2024 19   Maryland W 83-78 65%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +18.0 +16.8 +1.3
  Dec 14, 2024 22   Texas A&M L 66-70 56%     8 - 3 +11.6 +5.7 +5.6
  Dec 21, 2024 2   Auburn L 69-87 28%     8 - 4 +5.0 +6.2 -1.8
  Dec 29, 2024 209   Toledo W 83-64 97%     9 - 4 +13.3 +7.7 +6.4
  Jan 02, 2025 108   @ Minnesota W 81-61 84%     10 - 4 2 - 1 +26.5 +28.0 +2.4
  Jan 05, 2025 57   Northwestern W 79-61 84%     11 - 4 3 - 1 +24.4 +15.7 +9.9
  Jan 09, 2025 72   @ Rutgers W 68-50 74%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +28.4 +8.4 +21.8
  Jan 12, 2025 48   Nebraska W 104-68 81%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +44.0 +35.7 +8.0
  Jan 15, 2025 92   @ Washington W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 18, 2025 27   @ Oregon W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 21, 2025 29   Ohio St. W 77-70 75%    
  Jan 24, 2025 10   Michigan W 78-76 56%    
  Jan 31, 2025 52   Indiana W 79-69 81%    
  Feb 04, 2025 37   @ Iowa W 82-80 57%    
  Feb 07, 2025 60   USC W 79-68 84%    
  Feb 11, 2025 10   @ Michigan L 75-79 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 24   Wisconsin W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 18, 2025 11   @ Michigan St. L 71-74 37%    
  Feb 23, 2025 52   @ Indiana W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 28, 2025 28   UCLA W 72-65 75%    
  Mar 04, 2025 72   Rutgers W 80-67 88%    
  Mar 07, 2025 12   @ Illinois L 76-79 39%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.9 5.3 1.8 0.4 18.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 5.4 9.6 5.2 0.9 0.0 21.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 4.1 9.0 4.0 0.4 17.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 6.9 4.0 0.3 12.9 4th
5th 0.4 4.1 4.3 0.5 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 3.9 1.0 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.0 0.1 5.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.4 3.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.4 7.4 12.3 17.0 19.4 17.9 12.5 6.2 1.8 0.4 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 98.5% 1.8    1.6 0.2
17-3 85.0% 5.3    3.9 1.4 0.1
16-4 55.0% 6.9    3.0 3.1 0.7 0.1
15-5 21.5% 3.8    0.6 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.6% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.7% 18.7 9.5 6.4 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 41.8% 58.2% 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.8% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3% 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.2% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 2.0 1.7 2.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 12.5% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 2.6 1.3 4.5 4.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 17.9% 100.0% 19.8% 80.2% 3.3 0.7 3.2 6.5 5.4 1.9 0.2 100.0%
14-6 19.4% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 4.1 0.1 0.8 4.8 6.8 5.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 17.0% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.2 5.6 3.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 12.3% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.2 3.8 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 7.4% 99.3% 4.7% 94.6% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 99.3%
10-10 3.4% 96.4% 2.7% 93.7% 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 96.3%
9-11 1.2% 85.4% 1.1% 84.3% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.2 85.3%
8-12 0.4% 50.9% 50.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 50.9%
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.4% 14.8% 84.6% 4.3 5.1 12.5 19.6 20.0 17.0 11.7 7.3 3.2 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.6 99.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 97.5 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 63.0 37.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 74.4 23.1 2.6